la Nina rears her ugly head

I called the station and the guy acted like he didn’t know what I was talking about. They’re doubling down and sticking with their story. Maybe it was an AI guy that answered the phone. Satellite view shows the tail end remnants of Priscilla moving
through AZ on the way east.
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

GOES-West CONUS - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
 
I think we're out of rain here for at least the next week. It did dump quite a bit this afternoon late, more htan doubling all the existing puddles from last night's rain, pretty much all at once in about 15-20 minutes with some sprinkles after taht for a while.

I can see the plants and trees adn grass have loved the last week of rain quite a bit (thankful for it since I have had to save $$ by not watering anything, and just cutting down trees as they die; already cut down all the lantana a while back except one patch under one tree in the front yard that didn't die off. Feels awful to watch all this die that I raised and tended all these years, but...just can't afford it anymore, if I want to save money for anything else like emergencies, cost increases, etc).
 
It poured like crazy here for about 30 minutes and a bit lighter for a couple hours.
1.3" so far. A little more possible later tonight and tomorrow, but I doubt much.
Good start to the rain season. It came down so hard there was runoff, even though the ground is completely dry.
 
Turned the irrigation off in anticipation of this:
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

GOES-West - Sector view: Pacific Southwest - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
Supposedly the first severe thunderstorm warning for LA in 17 years. Of course we’ll probably never know for sure due to government furloughs and RIF (reduction in force) going on due to the shutdown.
FCC9A85A-19F5-4397-BE32-6E70555D4D25.png
 
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La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
********************************************************************************:)
Radar from a “satellite” perspective doesn’t look as bad as the weather bunnies made it sound. Too bad the storm drama didn’t pan out. We as always really need some rain.
E94BD51D-D0A2-4CEE-9113-8370FF419A52.png
As of 3:00 today only 0.03”. Oh what a dud!
Oct 14, 2:49 pm575283S4G91012.3927.7729.920.03
 
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Storm total 0.46” today, slight chance of thunderstorms remains overnight. About what was predicted at this location but on the lower end of the one-half to one inch figure given in the forecast.
Edit: Apple Weather total gives 0.25”. KTLA 5 news says 0.24” for the same town (maybe at the other end of the runway).
So the Wonky Weather average is:
0.323333333” for my location between the gages.
 
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2.2" since yesterday. About 1am last night it really dumped for about 20 minutes. Woke me up. Places just a few miles away got closer to 0.5". My area seems to be a magnet for those red spots on the radar. I'm hoping I can leave the irrigation system off until next summer. At least my cars (and solar panels) got rinsed off nicely.
 
I might get a little this weekend, but I'm not getting my hopes too high. The computer models are in disagreement again, which means they don't have a clue how much rain will happen. One model shows about 0.5" here, the other one zero. I'd rather leave the irrigation off, but if it doesn't rain again soon, at least the fruit trees will need some water.

Strange hurricane season this year too. They all went out in the ocean. First time in many years we haven't had any damaging hurricanes (well, except for up in Alaska).
 
Got an even 1.0" yesterday. Most of it came in about an hour when the front passed by, then sprinkles for the rest of the day.
A wind gust of 82 mph was recorded on a local peak. Lots of leaves to clean up now...
 
Supposedly we have a 30-40% chance of rain Thu night thru Saturday, strongest on Friday with up to a quarter inch capability. I don't expect we'll actually get much, as it's coming from the direction with no "funnel" effect.

Of course, it happens during the last chance I'll get for time off work until next year, because of the holidaze. (and having hurt my foot two days before it started, I don't expect to be able to do the yardwork I'd planned on until the end of hte week when the storms will be coming thru).

Well, it's still better than having to do it in the heat (I don't mind the rain, actually like it, but the powertools and electric yard tools don't appreciate it much as none of them are waterproof in the slightest).
 
Forecast for Thursday
National Weather Service: 80%
Jaccuweather: 100%
Apple Weather: 60%
Average: 80%

Friday
National Weather Service: cloudy/chance
Jaccuweather: 87%
Apple Weather: partly cloudy
Average: 29%

Saturday
National Weather Service: slight chance
Jaccuweather: 1%
Apple Weather: clear
Average: 0.33%

Sunday
National Weather Service: mostly clear
Jaccuweather: 2%
Apple Weather: 40%
Average: 14%

Monday
National Weather Service: slight chance
Jaccuweather: 55%
Apple Weather: partly cloudy
Average: 18.33%
 
This is for 7 days. But it's the dreaded cutoff low that the computer models can't figure out, so actual amounts may vary widely. At least I should get enough to not need irrigation in the yard.


1762834750233.png
 

Detailed Forecast​

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Showers. High near 68. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 55. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 64. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Monday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Tuesday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
 
They’re bringing back that old buzzword atmospheric river. It might look like it all except for the river part.

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
****************************************************************************************:)
 
Another 0.2" overnight.
QPF for the next 7 days looks pretty wet. High likelihood of flooding in southern California. 5-7" in the hills all has to go somewhere.
Better than a persistent drought I guess.

1763191079550.png
 
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