The age of cheap Chinese stuff is ending in the USA

[neptronix]

Biden Administration Announces Changes to De Minimis Trade Exemptions to Address Unfair and Unsafe Imports into the United States

"The announcement states that the Administration intends to undertake the following by the end of 2024:

• Issue a proposed rule denying use of the de minimis exception for any shipment containing products covered by tariffs imposed under Section 201 or 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 or Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (note that items covered under antidumping or countervailing duty (AD/CVD) orders are already ineligible for de minimis);
• Issue a proposed rule that would require specific, additional data for shipments that do qualify for the de minimis exception, including the 10-digit HTSUS number and the identity of the person on whose behalf the exemption is claimed; and
• Issue a final rule requiring importers of consumer products to file electronic certificates of compliance with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) at the time of entry, including for de minimis shipments.

The announcement also calls on Congress to codify the proposed reforms, particularly in regard to certain textiles and apparel. In addition, the White House announced that it would explore increased procurement of U.S. origin textile and apparel products and continue to prioritize enforcement efforts against illicit textile and apparel imports through increased monitoring, auditing, and expansion of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Entity List."


TLDR; tariffs are about to be added to most Chinese purchases people will make here

 

[offGridDownUnder]

tariffs are about to be added to most Chinese purchases people will make here

Grin is looking better and better. Accountable. Not just in it for the money.

 

[docw009]

I like Temu and the grandkids love Tik Tok.

I originally bought a TSDZ2 because I thought the cheeto head tariffs were going to raise the price, but the taxes didn't apply to private purchases. Still don't, as far as I know. Now the TSDZ2 is even cheaper, maybe $275 shipped.

 

[neptronix]

Grin was very smart to start inshoring things some years back.

The effects of the trade war are going to be brutal. here's my vision for 2025:

 

[gromike]

I suppose it's best to start stockpiling wear parts like tires, chains, etc. Maybe add battery cells, bms', controllers, connectors, hubmotors, rims, spokes, frames, and on and on.

 

[E-HP]

If the effect creates an incentive to manufacture motors here (inshoring), which would be like starting from scratch, then there would the advantage of being able to tool up with the latest or better technology and create better and more efficient motors. That’s the benefit of not being an established industry that would need to retool to make improvements.
This is similar to how China implemented cell phones. They didn’t have the infrastructure for landlines and leapfrogged right to cell service, rather than converting and maintaining two architectures, while phasing one of them out. Maybe we’ll finally see some tech improvements.

 

[harrisonpatm]

I suppose it's best to start stockpiling wear parts like tires, chains, etc. Maybe add battery cells, bms', controllers, connectors, hubmotors, rims, spokes, frames, and on and on.

And/or start getting used supplies instead of new. Learning how to make use of older or throwaway parts is both a transferable skill and easier on your wallet.

 

[wturber]

If the effect creates an incentive to manufacture motors here (inshoring), which would be like starting from scratch, then there would the advantage of being able to tool up with the latest or better technology and create better and more efficient motors. That’s the benefit of not being an established industry that would need to retool to make improvements.
This is similar to how China implemented cell phones. They didn’t have the infrastructure for landlines and leapfrogged right to cell service, rather than converting and maintaining two architectures, while phasing one of them out. Maybe we’ll finally see some tech improvements.

Seems a huge cost nonetheless. If it weren't, the Chinese would just start over themselves. Better motor efficiency doesn't seem all that important unless by that you mean similar performance in smaller or sizes or in configurations that use less raw material. Seems to me that once you are at 80% or so electrical efficiency, the marginal gains left are not that attractive.

There may be some upsides to these trade restrictions, but the downsides will almost surely be substantially greater - assuming the trade restrictions actually limit imports significantly.

 

[neptronix]

Market check.

Seeing a Chinese company or two get around the fees by warehousing in the USA.
I can get a complete ebike kit for $600 still, shipped from Las Vegas, NV.

 

[ebike4healthandfitness]

Seems a huge cost nonetheless. If it weren't, the Chinese would just start over themselves. Better motor efficiency doesn't seem all that important unless by that you mean similar performance in smaller or sizes or in configurations that use less raw material. Seems to me that once you are at 80% or so electrical efficiency, the marginal gains left are not that attractive.

The Chinese do make highly efficient motors. Take for example the stock motor in the Talaria MX4....it's 94% efficient. The stock Talaria MX5 motor....95% efficient.

Then there is the KO technologies upgrade motor for both Talaria MX4 and MX5 with 97% efficiency:

KO Technologies Talaria Upgarde Motor

The KO Tehcnologies upgrade motor for the Talaria represents a huge leap ofrward in both power and torque. Unleashing the true potential fo the Talaria.

www.ko-moto.com

 

[CMo44]

Post-Election, how are these tariffs looking? Idk how Trump's (30% ?) tariff on imports compares to the above Biden/Harris proposals.

While it WOULD be nice if more domestic manufacturers popped up (esp in the battery field), I'm not optimistic.

neptronix

Administrator Staff member
Oct 20, 2024
#9
Market check.

Seeing a Chinese company or two get around the fees by warehousing in the USA.
I can get a complete ebike kit for $600 still, shipped from Las Vegas, NV.

I've seen the same on some eBay kits. Kept seeing sellers were shipping from warehouses Galveston.

I needed to buy a $7 hub sprocket from Grin yesterday and it was $17 for the cheapest shipping (DHL) to LA. Was going to post here to see if I could just arrange someone who was already going to place a US order from them to buy it for me and ship it domestically, but decided it would take too long to set up and I would prob only save a couple of bucks. So I bought two. $14 items, $17 shipping... Thought it would be cool if Grin had a Seattle area outpost to eliminate the pricey cross-border shipping (and potential high tariffs). But I have no clue what cost that would be to Grin overall.

Seems this tariff business could be a HUGE issue as stated above by the op for lots of us who buy Chinese parts.

 

[docw009]

Bought this bike seat from Temu last week, It was $21.99 and I thought t was the same as the Boosden seats on amazon for 23.99, I set the bike upside down to work on it and the vinyl ripped.

Temu gave me a refund to my paypal account. They wanted to give me an instant Temu credit, but I opted for paypal, and that only took two days, Since this was my first dispute, they let me keep the seat. My wife wants to cover it in floral duct tape

I still don't think tariffs apply to individual orders under $750,

 

[fill]

'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.

 

[neptronix]

I try to pay as little attention to politics, but i've heard that USA's new president is a really big fan of tarrifs over income taxes as a way to fund government. At the same time, he wants to improve manufacturing in the USA.

What a new president promises to do and actually does are two completely different things.

Americans prefer quantity of stuff over quality of stuff, so their dollar vote is for Chinese products all the time. It would take serious legal changes to budge that at all. Said legal changes would be very difficult to execute. So personally, i would not bet on a return to American manufacturing yet.

Another wildcard is that relations between China's government and USA's government continue worsening over the years. They could worsen to a point where we economically desegregate from China, and that's when our American Manufacturing renaissance happens.

Too many variables right now, correctly predicting the course is difficult.

 

[docw009]

Tariffs can be implemented without laws being passed.

 

[neptronix]

Without subsequent action to foster domestic replacement of the tarriff'd thing, tarrifs are just a different way to tax citizens.
American citizens have been promised that tarrifs would help local manufacturing, and had it just turn into a tax, 99 times out of 100.

Examples:
- lumber industry
- batteries
- solar panels
- completed EVs
- computer technology
- cars

All heavily tarrif'd with zero evidence of the tarrifs helping USA manufacturing.

I wouldn't bet on a revival of American manufacturing. I think the only way it would happen is through necessity ( China/USA go to war )

 

[Chalo]

Another wildcard is that relations between China's government and USA's government continue worsening over the years. They could worsen to a point where we economically desegregate from China, and that's when our American Manufacturing renaissance happens.

I think that's beautifully optimistic. But...

India
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Mexico
Guatemala
El Salvador

are all labor arbitrage manufacturing locations with respect to the USA. Like Churchill said, we'll get around to doing the right thing only after we've tried everything else.

In the meantime, the American right is busily grinding the working class down to a bunch of ignorant, deluded, low skilled peasants just as fast as they can. To them, we're not oxen for getting work done; we're cattle for butchering. Manufacturing won't be coming back anytime soon. If by some chance it does, we will surely regret paying top shelf prices for the worst quality goods.

 

[Hillhater]

American citizens have been promised that tarrifs would help local manufacturing, and had it just turn into a tax, 99 times out of 100.

Its only a tax if the consumers continue to buy imported products at the inflated prices.
If instead consumers buy equivalent domestic produced products at similar prices, then the extra cost is diverted to domestic manufacturers, encouraging business growth , product development , and job creation.
The whole point of tarrifs is to discourage consumers from the purchace of imported products

 

[Chalo]

The whole point of tarrifs is to discourage consumers from the purchace of imported products

And the whole point of world trade is to take advantage of people in different places doing the things they are better or more efficient at doing.

USA dingdongs are best at consuming, because that's all they've been trained and educated to do.

I mean, they're also super awesome at racism and buying into obvious lies, but those things don't have as much market value.

 

[neptronix]

I think that's beautifully optimistic. But...

India

You know, they have the mass of people, but they still haven't really figured out how to make things like computer chips for decades despite trying. They also have a hell of an existing pollution problem that they're just starting to combat, which really runs counter to manufacturing a bunch of stuff.

Malaysia
Indonesia

Yeah i guess they make some stuff

Vietnam

I hear they're finally making cars over there. Probable, but.. small country..

Thailand

Also small but can make things

Mexico

Mexico could kill it if they just got their s*** together.

Guatemala
El Salvador

What do they produce other than tropical fruit and some of the world's finest narcotics?


China is the world's factory. Huge amount of land, large amount of resources, insane work ethic, almost no regulations, tons of people. Really hard to replace. You'd have to stitch together the rest of the world to make up for the loss.

What we can't count on is Europe to fill the void, many parts are de-industrializing out of fear of climate change.

Africa? maybe if they get their shit together and go warp speed into industrializing.

It might be that robots get a lot of these jobs to fulfill American demand for goods if we get into some serious trade wars with China. That's how Tesla builds things here, that and a lot of customized machinery.

 

[neptronix]

Speaking of volatility of the situation..

Sorry for the partisan news source but this was an informative article.
Republicans inch closer to ending China's favored trade status

They have begun to promote the idea of ending China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR). With Republicans seizing control of the White House and Senate, and being on track for a likely win in the House, the idea that was once considered a longshot now now become a likelihood.

"For too long, the Chinese Communist Party has taken advantage of America’s open hand with predatory economic practices that target the American economy, our workers, businesses, and our national security. We believe in free trade with free nations, but as the Committee recommended on a bipartisan basis, it is now time to reset our relationship with China by moving past PNTR to a trade relationship that reflects the threat we face from the CCP," a spokesperson for the House China Committee told Fox News Digital.

Over five years, the bill would increase tariffs by 100% on imports deemed "strategic" to national security by the Biden administration in an effort to force the growth of the domestic market for national security-related goods.

It would boost tariffs on non-strategic goods by a minimum of 35%.

China is widely expected to respond with tariffs on U.S.-imported goods. China buys tens of billions of dollars' worth of agricultural products, primarily soybeans, each year.

The bill, led by Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and cosponsored by Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., would also grant the president the authority to institute further tariffs, quotas and bans on specific Chinese goods. It would end "de minimis treatment" for China, or the value threshold below which imports are not subject to customs duties.

Curious to see where this goes.

Meanwhile in the EU:
China files complaint at World Trade Organization over EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles

GENEVA (AP) — China has moved forward with a complaint at the World Trade Organization that alleges the European Union has improperly set anti-subsidy tariffs on new Chinese-made electric vehicles.

The Chinese diplomatic mission to the WTO said Monday it “strongly opposes” the measures and insisted its move was designed to protect the EV industry and support a global transition toward greener technologies.

The European bloc announced last month it was imposing import duties of up to 35% on electric vehicles from China, alleging the Chinese exports were unfairly undercutting EU industry prices. The duties are set to remain in force for five years, unless an amicable deal can be struck.

 

[gromike]

All that it means is that if you want the stuff that China produces, buy it now rather than later.
That's pretty much all of the bicycle and of the ebike market.
We ain't going to be making mass market bicycle stuff anytime soon in the USA.

 

[docw009]

Lots of guitar riffs, We won't get fooled again More riffs. Woohoo!
"Here comes the new boss. Same as the old boss"
People are so dumb, .

We'll see if Tik Tok gets outlawed. That whole thing was anti-asian hysteria.

 

[neptronix]

Most western countries are gonna ban tiktok eventually because they know China's government is using it for foreign surveillance.

Sites like facebook perform the same task for USA governments.. and also engage in censorship on their behalf. Many of our social media sites are banned in other countries for that reason & more.

It is an actual problem.

 

[slaphappygamer]

Forums are about as social as I get. Facebook, TikTok and Twitter can all burn. I just solved the problem for me.