Any chance that electric bikes will be more popular..
- Thread starter sangesf
- Start date
geetarboy
100 W
Not in our lifetime. But, that doesn't mean there not more popular to us on ES 
dogman dan
1 PW
I see popularity in the USA growing as people who love to ride bikes ruin knees, and get other health problems. I see increasing popularity with the bike riding segment as systems to give light assist get lighter, and more reliable batteries evolve. There will be some additional converts from gas motorcycles. Guys will start to appreciate the fun of a 50 mph ebike that weighs about 70 pounds. So ES will keep growing.
In the USA though, the 99% will continue to consider anybody who ventures into the city street on a bicycle, pedal or not, to have a death wish. Most bikes in the USA will continue to sit in a garage, keeping company with the treadmill, the bowflex, etc. Meant to use em, and did for two weeks.
Abroad, particularly in Europe, I think some of the rediculously high priced bottom bracket drive bikes will start catching on. Easy to see why a hubmotor is a poor choice there given the emasculating laws. But through the gears, such low power can still be attractive. Plus there is a culture much more willing to bike for transportation in some parts of Europe.
In the USA though, the 99% will continue to consider anybody who ventures into the city street on a bicycle, pedal or not, to have a death wish. Most bikes in the USA will continue to sit in a garage, keeping company with the treadmill, the bowflex, etc. Meant to use em, and did for two weeks.
Abroad, particularly in Europe, I think some of the rediculously high priced bottom bracket drive bikes will start catching on. Easy to see why a hubmotor is a poor choice there given the emasculating laws. But through the gears, such low power can still be attractive. Plus there is a culture much more willing to bike for transportation in some parts of Europe.
Lebowski
10 MW
dogman said:
Correct. I think in Europe the electric bicycle is here to stay. The generation born after WW2 is now reaching
retirement age. This group has a lot of free time and lot's of money, I see al of my aunts and uncles switching
to high-end electric bikes. I can understand the appeal of even a low powered (25kmh) bike to an older person.
The motor allows one to cycle with the speed and ease of an 18 year old, people feel rejuvinated...
SamTexas
1 MW
I can't wait to get my hands on one of those bottom bracket drive from either Panasonic or Bosch. They make so much more sense than the hub motors, at least from a theoretical standpoint.dogman said:
Lebowski, do they make and sell bicycle frames for the Panasonic or Bosch BB drive in Switzerland? In other words, can you buy a frame from A, a BB drive motor from B, a controller/computer from C and put them together by yourself?Lebowski said:
Drunkskunk
100 GW
I don't see ebikes being popular in the US any time soon. American culture is a car culture. We like our big, comfortable, enviromental controlled, safe, convient freedom machines.
dogman dan
1 PW
Very true. If you get lucky, there might be a utility easement or ancient railway right of way that gets made into a trail. But it won't go downtown. Las Cruces is very lucky in this way though, The original town was quite small, and surrounded by irrigated farmland. The surface canal ditchbanks always were the prefered route to walk or bike anywhere in my youth. Now many of the ditches are nearly useless and buried in the city. They still have to be kept though, because some landowners preserved their flat rate water rights. EBID does less maintenance than ever to these canals nowdays, so the surface is pretty poor riding compared to the 60's when they graded the roadway regularly. But I still see a day coming when a deal is made to put an asphalt surface on enough of the canals to create a nice bike route system again. One canal, actually a storm drain canal that is part of the EBID system, is promised soon to become a bike path about 10 miles long connecting two other bike paths in the valley. And a few isolated sections near main street have been paved already
So one of these days, Las Cruces could be a pretty superb bike route city, including some good routes around the old parts of town. But a direct, shortest quickest route? No. Good thing the long cut is no big deal with a large battery.
So one of these days, Las Cruces could be a pretty superb bike route city, including some good routes around the old parts of town. But a direct, shortest quickest route? No. Good thing the long cut is no big deal with a large battery.
John in CR
100 TW
I see ebikes catching on as an extra vehicle for most, and as a car replacement for a small but growing minority willing to use public transportation. I've considering getting rid of the family minivan and supplement our extra transportation needs with a rent car. The bus system is extensive and convenient here, so it makes that approach very workable.
V_Mark
100 W
I think the fact that most ebikes look more or less like regular non-powered bikes both helps and hurts the cause. Many people still don't even realize that electric bikes exist. What we have here is a new technology (or new to the general public) that doesn't look different than the existing technology.
I was visiting family for thanksgiving this past weekend and a neighborhood boy was riding a gas-powered bike down the street. I went over to later to say hello and when I mentioned that I rode electric bikes, the boy and a few of his relatives all gave me blank looks and asked, "What's an electric bike?"
The average driver won't notice an electric-assist bicycle because they don't stand out. They will however, notice an ICE bike because they are shiny and loud.
A lot of us want to keep our bikes stealthy and unnoticed by police, security, and sometimes lycras.
I think for something to catch-on, the general public first has to be aware that it exists. If the public is aware of it, it will be regulated more. Is this something we are prepared for? Unfortunately, more limits on speed, power, and where an ebike is allowed will also limit the rate of acceptance of this form of transportation.
Side note: I hadn't ridden a gas-bike in a long time and was suprised at how slow and weak it was compared to the 36-48v ebike setups I'm now used to. Also, having only a coaster-brake didn't help it's case.
I was visiting family for thanksgiving this past weekend and a neighborhood boy was riding a gas-powered bike down the street. I went over to later to say hello and when I mentioned that I rode electric bikes, the boy and a few of his relatives all gave me blank looks and asked, "What's an electric bike?"
The average driver won't notice an electric-assist bicycle because they don't stand out. They will however, notice an ICE bike because they are shiny and loud.
A lot of us want to keep our bikes stealthy and unnoticed by police, security, and sometimes lycras.
I think for something to catch-on, the general public first has to be aware that it exists. If the public is aware of it, it will be regulated more. Is this something we are prepared for? Unfortunately, more limits on speed, power, and where an ebike is allowed will also limit the rate of acceptance of this form of transportation.
Side note: I hadn't ridden a gas-bike in a long time and was suprised at how slow and weak it was compared to the 36-48v ebike setups I'm now used to. Also, having only a coaster-brake didn't help it's case.
SamTexas
1 MW
I'm with you.V_Mark said:
I can only speak for myself: No, I don't want ebikes to be more popular, in fact I want the opposite. No, I don't want the public to be aware of ebikes. No, I don't want to promote ebikes. No, I don't want to see any change at all to the current USA ebike law.
For those who are so gung-ho about promoting ebikes in the USA, I beg you to reconsider. Think about what the silly dogooders and the clueless politicians would/could do to regulate ebiking. Look at Europe and Australia as a prime examples.
dogman dan
1 PW
Unfortunately Texas did notice Ebikes, and you got a nice long complicated set of laws now.
Ebikes don't exist in NM, and I want it to stay that way. 8) I'm a moped, I can go 30 mph, no watt limit no registration. Woot! Licence required, but nobody asked Wineboy for his in more than a year of riding.
Ebikes don't exist in NM, and I want it to stay that way. 8) I'm a moped, I can go 30 mph, no watt limit no registration. Woot! Licence required, but nobody asked Wineboy for his in more than a year of riding.
SamTexas
1 MW
I don't know what you're talking about dogman. Chapter 551 of the Texas Transportation Code defines electric bicycles just the same way as the federal law does: 750W, 20mph, 100lbs. No license, no registration. A haven for DUI guys just like most other states, except yours of course.dogman said:
V_Mark
100 W
SamTexas said:
Let me clarify. I do want to promote ebikes. I would like to see people replacing their cars with ebikes whenever possible. What I wanted to point out is that the effect of promoting ebikes may ultimately lead to a slow adoption of them, because the more people that know about them, the more the regulations on them will discourage people from using them.
There's not really any way around it in our current system. It will be a slow process, with politicians and corporations fighting the whole way.
SamTexas
1 MW
Thanks for the clarification. No, I did not misunderstand you at all. I did not assume that you were against promoting ebikes. I was simply agreeing with you that it will be regulated more. That's why I started the next paragraph with "I can only speak for myself: ..."
I believe electric bikes will become more popular in the US soon - the "cheating" aspect is still hindering on our minds, when in reality e-bikes are helping more people realize there is a way to commute or run errands without stepping foot in a car.
Nehmo
10 kW
But that doesn't necessarily mean much.dogman said:...Licence required, but nobody asked Wineboy for his in more than a year of riding.
(I swear this is the truth.) When I first came to Missouri (I had a drivers license back then, BTW), we got a car that we couldn't get inspected and consequently couldn't get registered. After expending much effort, I gave up on making it legal, and drove it without a tag. In place of the tag, I put a sign saying "Getting Tag".
I drove the car everyday and every weekday on a 35 mile round trip to Overland Park, Kansas (an intensely patrolled city) for seven months. I never got stopped. Once, a cop was behind me for about a two miles. I thought for sure the time had come, but it didn't happen.
etard
100 kW
More ebikes= More Government Regulation i.e. Laws and Fees
I still can't understand why everybody wants ebkes to be popular. For what purpose?
I still can't understand why everybody wants ebkes to be popular. For what purpose?
Nehmo
10 kW
etard said:
- I'll be discriminated against less. I have a problem getting some bus drivers to accept my e-bike on the bus rack.
- When I'm on the road, maybe people driving will quit yelling "idiot" at me.
- With more e-bikes, maybe I'll find someone in real life to talk to.
- Economics of scale makes parts cheaper.
- More e-bikes means fewer cars, and that means less pollution and less dependency on middle-east nut-cases.
- I'll be vindicated. I've been predicting e-vehicles for years.
Evoforce
10 kW
I want all electric vehicles to succeed. The only way to have that happen, is for the public to be educated about it. Head in the sand and hope they don't see you, is not a winning strategy. If people only care about themselves, and hope they can get away with things, and not actively help with the rulemaking, no one will stand up for you when you need help. The thinking of "I got what I want so who cares if anyone else has it so it doesn't ruin it for me is ?" I can just see the Wright Bro's and others having this thought process. Let's just keep all this stuff to ourselves. I'm not sharing my toys. Look how much regulation is on the Airlines now but I can still pilot my small plane around. Electrics' are not going away and we need to put in our input now, to get what we want. Not running and hiding in the shadows hoping they don't see us. Of course...it's just my opinion! Someone initially promoted it to you. Now do you just keep it to yourself?
etard
100 kW
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Ain't that the truth!!!
Evo,
I knew you were a pirate, but I didn't know you are a pilot! When (IF?) I retire, I want to build my own electric plane. You guys are right, I 'spose. I just hate the thought of cops pulling me over cuz I'm going over 20 mph on a bicycle. I guess I'll just have to register it as a moped when the time comes. :wink:
Evoforce
10 kW
Yea Etard, I am going to build an electric motorcycle in the near future and probably modified electric boat motor and a car if the prices don't come down on the new ones. Got my pilots license back when I was 20 but haven't flown lately. Need to get a physical and do a few touch and go's to get current. Went to college for Flight Tech but changed to Construction Degree as there were no job prospects with Airlines back then. Both career paths would have had feast and famine. 
I've got the bug to turn everything into electric. Want an electric plane too! Just not enough time or money...Politics, Aaaaaaar I hate um! But just as taxes, sometimes we just don't have a real choice but to get involved, unless we like to get raped and pillaged for sure. 
I've got the bug to turn everything into electric. Want an electric plane too! Just not enough time or money...Politics, Aaaaaaar I hate um! But just as taxes, sometimes we just don't have a real choice but to get involved, unless we like to get raped and pillaged for sure. 
tomk2
1 mW
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2011
- Messages
- 16
I think the game changer for e bikes and all EVs will be the next wave of battery technology. Northwestern University researchers are devising a new Lithium/Carbon/Silicon sandwich battery which will carry 10 times the energy per weight as the current ones. In addition, they claim they'll recharge 10 times as fast. They have said this technology could be in commercial production in 3 -5 years.
http://www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2011/11/batteries-energy-kung.html
If they (or anyone else) are successful then I think you'll see a whole range of new EVs from lightweight bikes to "Prius/Leaf" like vehicles. It's not going to matter what we want to happen - efficient EVs will definitely begin to take significant market share. I think there is a reasonable probability that EVs are about where PCs were in 1975 - i.e. tinkerers and small user groups forming building a base of technology for the next transportation revolution. It's already happening in China.
The one caveat of course is that the battery technology must improve and betting on futures is a risky business (anyone remember a sure thing called "bubble memory"?)
The question of course is who on endless-sphere or wherever will become the E Bike version of Steve Jobs/Steve Wozniak or Bill Gates.
http://www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2011/11/batteries-energy-kung.html
If they (or anyone else) are successful then I think you'll see a whole range of new EVs from lightweight bikes to "Prius/Leaf" like vehicles. It's not going to matter what we want to happen - efficient EVs will definitely begin to take significant market share. I think there is a reasonable probability that EVs are about where PCs were in 1975 - i.e. tinkerers and small user groups forming building a base of technology for the next transportation revolution. It's already happening in China.
The one caveat of course is that the battery technology must improve and betting on futures is a risky business (anyone remember a sure thing called "bubble memory"?)
The question of course is who on endless-sphere or wherever will become the E Bike version of Steve Jobs/Steve Wozniak or Bill Gates.
Yes, they will become more popular, but will never be like China, even in the cities. A typical progressive American city in 2020 will have 2% ebikes and 5% cyclist commuters. There will still be 75% commuting alone in their car. Unless gas goes much higher. They will neglect the fact that the roads will never be able to accomadate that many cars during rush hours, and will continue to waste significant portions of their days unhappy in traffic.
