Peak Oil and "Transition Towns"

deardancer3

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Transition Towns on the horizon in PA?

Fear about peak oil is spreading

http://www.riverreporter.com/issues/09-12-03/news-transition.html

By TOM KANE

HONESDALE, PA — There’s a great deal of local interest in a movement located mainly in Europe called Transition Towns.

Local environmental groups like Sustainable Energy Education and Development Support (SEEDS), Northeast PA Audubon and numerous others have been watching and discussing a unique film about communities in England, Ireland, Scotland, Germany and New Zealand which have organized groups to address something called peak oil and its consequences.

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. It means that eventually—nobody is sure when— the supply of oil in the oil fields of the world will decline to the point where serious impact on the global social order will be felt.

Some experts are saying that this point in time will come a lot sooner than at first believed.

If you think too hard about this and what it will mean to our way of life, it can cause frightening visions of Armageddon.

Rather than just wringing their hands over this draconian vision of vast global change and its dire consequences, groups around the world are attempting to do something about it: namely, change the way they live in their towns. Thus, Transition Towns was born.

Some examples of activities in the towns are: one hundred percent recycling, ensuring the purity of food, support of local farmers, promoting farmers markets, sharing means of transportation, sharing common garden space, creating a local currency that is used in place of traditional money to buy locally produced products and changing policies of local governments.

Can this movement take root here in the United States and in Wayne County? That’s the question these groups are asking.

Last month, SEEDS and Audubon showed the film in Manchester Township and in Honesdale on November 10. A third viewing took place in the Wayne County Complex on November 17.

The November 10 meeting brought together other groups like Awakening the Dreamer, Permaculture and Pennsylvania Association of Sustainable Agriculture (PASA), WaynePeace, Delaware Highlands Conservancy, and the Upper Delaware Unitarian Universalist Fellowship and their Fair Trade coffee and chocolate project.

Before viewing the film, each group explained what their mission was and participated in a discussion of the film after the viewing. Many expressed convictions that transitioning was already happening in small ways among their groups.

“It’s going to take time to make the transition happen here,” said Honesdale resident Vina Miller. “It doesn’t happen over night.”

“Things are beginning,” said Stephen Stuart of the Upper Delaware Unitarian group. “Little steps like turning down your thermostat, putting on a sweater, becoming aware of the global implications of the products we use are some ways to do it. This is the way important movements happen.”

In Sullivan County, a group in Liberty, NY is working on transitioning there. They held a meeting on June 9 at the Cornell Cooperative Extension. Liberty resident Tim Shera and Youngsville resident Maria Grimaldi are behind the movement.

“We can’t be transporting food 1,500 miles after the price of fuel gets so high,” Shera said. Some of this type of concern is addressed by the concept of the Transition Town, he said.

According to the transition movement’s website, such town projects are already happening in the United States with some 27 communities involved.

Visit transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/12Steps for more information.
 
deardancer3 said:
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. It means that eventually—nobody is sure when— the supply of oil in the oil fields of the world will decline to the point where serious impact on the global social order will be felt.

Some experts are saying that this point in time will come a lot sooner than at first believed.

If you think too hard about this and what it will mean to our way of life, it can cause frightening visions of Armageddon.

There are different kinds of petroleum. Light sweet crude (the cheap stuff with little or no sulfur contamination) is what we're going to run out of first. Right now, production is still increasing, but so is demand. Most projections show demand for light sweet crude to start exceeding supply in the next two years. Light sweet crude production will not actually start declining for another decade or so.

We're nowhere anywhere near running out of oil sands, but refining that stuff into usable products is more expensive, and much worse on the environment, and questions remain about whether existing facilities will be able to meet the supply gap when the light sweet crude production starts falling off.

I got most of my information on this by reading "A Thousand Barrels a Second," by Peter Tertzakian. He was a geophysicist for Chevron and is now an energy economist for ARC. http://www.arcfinancial.com/

I don't think there's going to be an energy armageddon. Worst case, we will see some significant price fluctuations and shortages like we did back in the '70s, for a few years, until they ramp up production facilities for oil sand, bitumen, and other 'alternative' petroleum sources to the point where they can meet demand. Meanwhile, I expect electric bikes might see a boost in popularity. :mrgreen:
 
I can definitely see societal changes with the advent of peak oil, but I definitely don't think it's going to be "armageddon" as the panic trait that seems to emanate from large groups (I get the feeling that groups tend to serve as incubators for panic since if they're enough panic amplifiers in the group, the panic will go through positive feedback until reaching ludicrous proportions.) would lead some to believe. I think we'll likely see a transition to other technologies and while the total energy output *might* decrease, our productivity will likely increase so there probably wouldn't be a starving-type of impact on global wealth (at least for educated and relatively free societies).
 
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