EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDrops

[teslanv]

Based on the adaptability of Tesla's Car factory, I would not be surprised if the Gigafactory will be able to adapt to new chemistries and technologies as they develop. That would be the defining difference in a factory of this scale.

 

[liveforphysics]

Just as long as they stick with 18650 and don't move to car sized cells
...
At what point does the 18560 form become undesirable?

If you're not making a flashlight or a sex-toy, what application was an 18650 ever a desirable size for? Does your EV happen to be an 18mm ID tube, so an 18650 fills it efficiently without a bunch of extra packaging overhead or dead space in the gaps between cylinder cells?

An EV batteries objective is to hold hundreds of pounds of active material with a low resistance current path to the motor-controller. Thousands of tiny round can's is pretty much the worst you're going to get for doing that in a low cost, high packaging efficiency, high reliability system. I'm not saying Tesla didn't figure out a way to do it, and do it well, but if you're saying the 18650 is optimal for anything EV or even laptop related (because laptops also aren't 18mm ID tube shaped cavity devices), you've got a different version of what makes something ideal/good than I do.

Modern laptops have already entirely dropped the 18650 form factor thank God (laptops as an industry is almost dead anyways though, so it's not a market driver anymore). EV's will find a cell form factor well suited towards EV needs (high volumetric/gravametric packaging efficiency with high current robust interconnects).

The only reason it hasn't happened yet is the chicken/egg problem. You can't justify making the factory before people are buying cars, you can't build the cars people want to buy until the battery cost/size/performance is right.

Tesla has now shown the world people can and will buy EV's. This is why the whole battery industry is scrambling to enter EV market-space now before they are left out of what will be the largest battery purchasing market very soon.

The 18650 will be as obsolete as the AA cell soon. You will always be able to purchase them from somewhere, but no device you want to own will be coming OEM with them.

 

[Hillhater]

Adaptability .. "Future-proofing" would be the ideal scenario for the plant,
.. but Adaptability is a real handicap and added cost for a high efficiency mass production facility .
They are going to have to make some tough calls on exactly what they produce at this new plant.
I suspect it may not be an 18650 cell !

 

[wineboyrider]

That's why Nissan and others are rushing to make ev's event though they are behind the curve.
http://www.revengeoftheelectriccar.com/

 

[liveforphysics]

Adaptability .. "Future-proofing" would be the ideal scenario for the plant,
.. but Adaptability is a real handicap and added cost for a high efficiency mass production facility .
They are going to have to make some tough calls on exactly what they produce at this new plant.
I suspect it may not be an 18650 cell !

I'm ironically posting this from a battery factory in China that started out only doing 18650's, and more recently has been branching into more sensible formats (as the ones that will survive long-term are all doing).

It's a trend you will be seeing a lot of if you're involved with the battery industry.

 

[LockH]

Ummm... Sorry, coming late to this thread, but by some estimates, the two or three-wheeled bike/trike may consume less Wh/mile? So lower cost to buy/operate/maintain vs the horseless carriage aka the "car". (Plus I sorta doubt Mister Musk has ANY EVidence that an electric car is more "eco-friendly" when it runs down/over/into any animals, etc.)

 

[liveforphysics]

Ummm... Sorry, coming late to this thread, but by some estimates, the two or three-wheeled bike/trike may consume less Wh/mile? So lower cost to buy/operate/maintain vs the horseless carriage aka the "car". (Plus I sorta doubt Mister Musk has ANY EVidence that an electric car is more "eco-friendly" when it runs down/over/into any animals, etc.)

You are absolutely right my friend. The world would be so radically safer and more healthy if everyone just used bicycles. If you can think of a way to get people to replace cars with bicycles, we will be much better off. While folks are still choosing to get around in cars though, they can at least only be hazardous from the kinetic energy related dangers rather than spraying foul smells and partially burned carcinogens and mutagens out the back to chemically poison a wide range of life as well. I ran a half-marathon last night in Beijing (impromptu and alone through the night just for kicks), and I bet I wouldn't have had to blow nearly as many soot-boogers out of my nose afterwards if the larger vehicles here were electric rather than just the bicycles and scooters (which are overwhelmingly electric over gasoline here).

 

[RyanT]

Yet 18650's seem to offer the best energy density to consumers today? (even if you count the space between cells ).

http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=57224

There must be some good reasons tesla and ebikes use them. For one thing costs since it's probably easier to manufacture cylindrical cells. I guess then you could say the cells should be bigger but then you have to account for some space between cells for heating and cooling in the case of large scale ev's. I'm all for a standard modular format so he batteries can be produced cheaper and used in different devices. I've been using 18650's in my ecig, bike headlamp, iphone charger, uv water purifier, etc for years. If all my devices had a different size optimal shaped battery it'd be a pain and probably more expensive to produce.

 

[Hillhater]

Yet 18650's seem to offer the best energy density to consumers today?....

No doubt,....but this plant is not going to be producing anything until 2017, by which time who knows what will be the best cell to use ?
In Teslas pack, more than 50% of the cost is in ancilliary devices and assembly cost, and Musk has stated that his intention is to dramatically reduce pack costs when this plant ( and the Gen111 car) comes on stream.

 

[liveforphysics]

Do not confuse the shape of the can it's packaged in with the energy density of the active material in the cell. They are unrelated.

In other words, if you put the same coated foil that gets rolled up and stuffed in a can to make a 3.4Ah 18650 (or whatever) into a package shape that makes sense, you still get that same active materials energy density. You simply gain the option to not have it inherently require a bunch dead-space and cell support structure and require thousands of interconnect hassles/waste/failure-modes/assembly time/labor etc.

If you wish to see examples of cells that do this, look at what powers a new iPad or ultrabook laptop or smartphone etc.

 

[mrzed]

Yep, 18650 as an ev performance format just doesn't pass the smell test, even to a lay dork. I'm not sure its demise is so imminent though. A good part or the reason it's so prevalent as a high performance cell now is handheld power tools with high current needs. That will mean a good market for high performance cells into the future because that module will continue to make sense for power tools.

 

[flathill]

Who knows what tesla will do
Its not like they have not considered prismatics a million times
The wasted space is a good thing long term if cells are little bombs
Sharp folds are not good either
I suspect they will creat a whole new format
I can tell you they are hiring battery engineers with prismatic experience

 

[100volts+]

I suspect they will creat a whole new format

I'll bet he's already got a radically new successfully tested format. Hence the new factory.

 

[liveforphysics]

Yep, 18650 as an ev performance format just doesn't pass the smell test, even to a lay dork. I'm not sure its demise is so imminent though. A good part or the reason it's so prevalent as a high performance cell now is handheld power tools with high current needs. That will mean a good market for high performance cells into the future because that module will continue to make sense for power tools.

My power tools do all use can cells. It's not because the can cell makes sense for the power tool packaging or application though (because the packs are round cells fitted into a little brick that is unnecessarily large and heavy because of using cylinders). It's because the 18650 is currently what factories can buy off-the-shelf mature designs of electrode coating machines and rolling mills and buy economies - of - scale cheap cans and crimping machines etc.

The only reason they are used for anything that isn't a flashlight or sex toy is because companies are too cheap and lazy to take on the not-trivial task of tooling up to make an optimized cell for the application.

As cell mfg matures into a commodity item, it won't be as daunting of a task for a company to make the appropriate cell for the application as you're already seeing in modern ultrabooks and smartphones etc.

 

[bobc]

Interesting thread. Aside from fitting snugly into flashlights & sex toys, the round can is pretty much the best shape for containing pressure, might be a practical reason for its popularity?
FWIW I'd be surprised if there were a massive revolution in any of the EV technologies in the next 5 to 10 years, but I reckon the cost & performance will improve gradually while fossil fuels gradually get more pricey.
I still argue with folk who say "the EV will never be taken up en masse until it's better reg. range than an ICE car". Talk to me about it in 15 years when it costs a month's wage to fill your tank....... The freedom to drive 1000 miles on a whim at the drop of a hat is SUCH a luxury!

 

[LockH]

"sex toys"? (Dang, got that ebiker guys woodie again.)

 

[cal3thousand]

Based on the adaptability of Tesla's Car factory, I would not be surprised if the Gigafactory will be able to adapt to new chemistries and technologies as they develop. That would be the defining difference in a factory of this scale.

That's how I feel. If technology changes it will still be battery technology. It's not like you throw out a whole plant because the manufacturing of the base has changed.

 

[Hillhater]

Based on the adaptability of Tesla's Car factory, I would not be surprised if the Gigafactory will be able to adapt to new chemistries and technologies as they develop. That would be the defining difference in a factory of this scale.

That's how I feel. If technology changes it will still be battery technology. It's not like you throw out a whole plant because the manufacturing of the base has changed.

As i said before, that would be an ideal, and i am sure they will build in some level of adaptability..
BUT,..if you want low cost , efficient , high speed production, you have to have a custom dedicated facility.
The more "flexibility" you incorporate the more it costs, and the more it compromises your performance, and unit cost.
Also , since this is supposed to be a "raw material" start point factory, it will have numerous material and chemical processing systems which are highly specialised.
.. Producing "Licoxx" 18650's requires fundamentally different facilities and processes to making Zinc air "bricks" ..or whatever the next generation of wonder cell may be.
No, if they are serious about low cost efficient production, they need a dedicated plant from day one.
If they choose wrong , it will prove very costly in terms of $$$'s and time to make changes later on.
I believe the smart money is on something other than 18650, from day one. !

 

[wineboyrider]

The economic ideas and possibilities alone has me interested. But, Tesla is in it too make a profit I am sure and only time will tell. :?

 

[flathill]

these cells suck chem wise but the oval format at least doesn't have sharp bends like prismatics, still has a can, and precise venting

Even with the 18650 is not like Tesla is packing them as close together as possible. The main reason they are spaced is to play it safe (car crash)

I'm thinking tesla may do an oval cell with a hollow center for cooling

 

[Hillhater]

Unless you have evidence to the contrary, i would suggest that those Boston Power cells are simply a pair of 18650's parallel'd together in a neat wrapper !
Even if they are something else, they have the same capacity , size and performance as 2 18650's ?

...with the 18650 is not like Tesla is packing them as close together as possible. The main reason they are spaced is to play it safe (car crash)

hmm,.. and i thought it was so they could get the essential cooling system tubes in between the cells ?

 

[liveforphysics]

Unless you have evidence to the contrary, i would suggest that those Boston Power cells are simply a pair of 18650's parallel'd together in a neat wrapper !
Even if they are something else, they have the same capacity , size and performance as 2 18650's ?

...with the 18650 is not like Tesla is packing them as close together as possible. The main reason they are spaced is to play it safe (car crash)

hmm,.. and i thought it was so they could get the essential cooling system tubes in between the cells ?

Those are really oval wrapped, not just a pair of 18650's, I've cut them apart myself. They are also a remarkably safe cell from my testing (shorting, smashing, mild-overcharge, mild-reverse charge, puncture all resorted in nothing more than getting warm and a little whisp of smoke here and there).

Interesting thread. Aside from fitting snugly into flashlights & sex toys, the round can is pretty much the best shape for containing pressure, might be a practical reason for its popularity?
FWIW I'd be surprised if there were a massive revolution in any of the EV technologies in the next 5 to 10 years, but I reckon the cost & performance will improve gradually while fossil fuels gradually get more pricey.
I still argue with folk who say "the EV will never be taken up en masse until it's better reg. range than an ICE car". Talk to me about it in 15 years when it costs a month's wage to fill your tank....... The freedom to drive 1000 miles on a whim at the drop of a hat is SUCH a luxury!

If you're making pressure in your cell, that's the problem not the container, and no practical (light and economical) container can hold back the pressures involved with a cell failure reguardless of the shape or topology anyways. Whats scary about 18650's is because the shape is a good pressure vessel, when the vent's don't function as designed (which often happens to people who foolishly solder them etc) they can build to hazardous pressures before exploding with shrapnel. You fortunately don't have that failure mode with pouches etc.

"sex toys"? (Dang, got that ebiker guys woodie again.)

Always glad to help my friend.

at least doesn't have sharp bends like prismatics,

To the contrary. 18650's and those cells have very tight bend radius as they get towards the center. It really cracks away coating from the foils to become inactive as well (unless it's super binder doped, but that costs energy and power density etc).

In a proper die-cut pouch/prismatic cell layout (LG chem is the singular type I'm aware of that folds there pouch cells, but many thundersag-esque prismatics are rolled), the foils have zero bends at any point unless you choose to bend the whole pouch after you make it for some reason.


There are so many exciting new cell technologies being developed right now. Between solid state electrolytes slowly starting to get sorted out and various non-lithium based chemistry options along with promising super high energy anode tech from sulfur to silicon, and the various graphene current collector grid tech and 3d nano-wire tech, it's anyways guess what the next generation of batteries will look like.

Here's to hoping they are made on continuous film lamination machines using all solid materials and we drop the whole can/sack/pouch/shell concept finally and open up huge flexibility in form-factor and packaging density and cost reduction.

Also, the concept of a battery that requires a cooling/heating system is a preposterous band-aid as well. How about batteries that simply perform well over the practical range of temps a vehicle will be in, and have low enough impedance that they don't waste so much energy they require being cooled while you charge/discharge them.

Sky is the limit. Develop outside the box (can/sack etc).

 

[flathill]

Yeah there is quite a few differemt ways to make a prismatic cell

True flat stack
Stack and fold
And a few zig zag variations

All have more cut edges than a jelly roll
All have folded separators except the true flat stack
Which means more cost and higher chance of defect IMO

An oval jellyroll may be the best all rounder

Cans provide compression
Not only for swelling
Lithium batteries are act also in ways capacitors
Capacitors bulge and contract small amounts
Stacked capacitors will always be superior performance wise
But maybe not reliability/cost wise compared to traditional mass production wound capacitors
Same battle but reliability (safety) is more important in an ev

 

[liveforphysics]

Show me a single zig - zag folded foil cell.

Folding the seperator never is and never has been an issue/concern.

All the rolled cells inherently have more bends in the foil.

 

[Hillhater]

Luke, what is your assessment of the current cost of 18650 cells ?
There have been comments on line, from supposed "Battery industry insiders". That quality brand 18650 cells are trading wholesale for less than $1.0 per cell (in volume, obviously).
That is hard to believe when musk and others are talking of trying to get cell costs below $200 /kWhr, and raw materials have been stated at $60-$70 /kWhr.
( quality 18650's should be around 100cells per kWhr )