la Nina rears her ugly head

I'm going to get dumped on again.

NWS:
A longwave trough with a parent low over the Gulf of Alaska will
deepen and advance to the coast by late Thursday. At the same
time energy currently well out in the Pacific will rotate around
the low and turn into a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure.
A strong cold front associated with the low will head toward our
region while a few pre-frontal showers pass through.

Widespread rainfall will move to the North Bay by late in the
evening and then through the rest of our CWA on Friday. Rain could
be moderate to heavy at times especially for coastal ranges plus
the North Bay. Rain amounts will range from 1 to 3" for the North
Bay and coastal ranges with generally 1.2" to 1.5" for the
remainder of our region.
 
Last night during the 30+mph winds, I could smell rain but we didn't actually get any; most of the time it was completely clear overhead when the smell was happening. :?

Wind died halfway to dawn and it was just still and clear, like it is right now. Supposed to get windy again later this week like t was last night, but will get as high as the 90's F too. :(

By the time my time-off-from-work comes, the last week of April, it'll probably be in the mid-90s or higher. :(

We had some of those same 30MPH gusts with 15-20mph constant in the afternoon yesterday too, and I had to use a few tricks to ride the trike home safely from the grocery store; having the back end completely loaded up stuffed full helped a lot, though.
 
Still raining here ... I will never complain about dry weather again.. haha I think we got 8 inches in the last :roll: week..
 
Raining hard and the wind is really blowing. I hope it passes before morning commute. Longer range forecast indicates more rain next week.
 
Even people in Seattle, who are used to rain, are complaining. We've had very few dry days since last September.

image005-16-672x420.png


http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/rain-stats/rainfall-2016/
 
----------------------------------------------La Niña Rain Gage-----------------------------------------------------------------
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
------------------------------------------------------- :) --------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
3.65" here since Thursday. Last night, we had a heavy downpour with over an inch in less than an hour.
Season total 66.75".
 
Might even get some more. :)
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of rain before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
 
3 months of little to no snow, just rain in a MN winter. Weird.
 
----------------------------------------------La Niña Rain Gage-----------------------------------------------------------------
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
- :( --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Car wash didn't work.
 
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/u...rk-sends-waves-precipitation-record-s_146521/
Precipitation Record Set by 1982-83 El Nino Falls
Update: Modest late-season storm pushes Sierra 8-station index over the mark, sends waves
By Schaler Perry
Published:April 13, 2017
Views:16,915
While the surf wasn't all-time for much of the West Coast this winter, there were still certainly some windows.
After years of prolific drought, California was drenched this winter. Spring is here now, but the water year has just surpassed the former wettest year on record - the very strong El Niño of 1982-83.
In a fairly unprecedented way, surf has been the sideshow to snow, or rain depending on elevation, for much of the West Coast this winter. There have been some fine moments of surf, to be sure, but the amount of water making its way into California this winter hasn’t been seen in decades.

The snowpack in the upper elevations of the Sierra has been astronomical, rendering second floor balconies main entries and burying chair lifts. A key 8-station metric used to quantify water in the Sierra recorded a staggering 89.7 inches this morning, out-doing the 88.5 inches recorded during the 1982-83 El Niño. A storm impacting the West Coast last weekend brought us within an inch of the mark, and a modest low pushed us over the finish line this morning. Note that it is only April 13th, and we still have over five months of water year to go. Despite opportunity for more, and potentially potent, storms on the charts through the next month or so, the climatologically strongest months for precipitation have passed.

So, it's been wet. But why is all this precipitation showing up now instead of last year? You know, when the impending, historic El Niño was slated to quench the growing thirst brought on by four years of drought across California.

On a rudimentary level, that's pretty easy. The Golden State has been on the receiving end of a multitude of Atmospheric River (AR) events. In a normal year we see less than five, this year we've had north of ten. Atmospheric River's aren't specific to the Pacific; they are one of the primary vehicles for transferring water from the tropics to the sub-tropics and mid-latitudes. The colloquial Pineapple Express, which taps moisture near Hawaii and unloads it along the West Coast, is paramount to the amount of precipitation California receives in a given year. It has been working overtime this year.

It's interesting to note that despite breaking the long standing precipitation record from the El Niño of 1982-83, the overall snowpack in the Sierra has not been as prolific.

But why now? And why during a weak La Niña? In terms of the surf-end of El Niño, last winter offered an abundance of waves and generally favorable winds/conditions across California. Especially through much of January and February as high pressure settled over the Southern half of the state, blocking any substantial precipitation.

This year has been different. If you are thumbing through this from California, you are surely admiring the vibrancy brought on by seemingly weeks-straight precipitation. Super bloom anyone? Records have been toppled, and it has been shown that brown vegetation (or lack thereof) + water = green. It is a testament to the amount of water transported in these AR events, many of which have originated from a fairly unique pattern.

Newly minted research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has shed light on just what has been driving the unique, prolific patterns delivering drought and deluge in California of late. The global pattern is intuitively named “Wavenumber-5”, noting the simultaneous existence of five pairs of high/low pressure around the globe. As one might imagine, the location of these high and low-pressure features is paramount to the local weather patterns brought on. The historic El Niño winter of 2015-16, along with the preceding winter, were characterized by high pressure over the West Coast bringing less than normal precipitation and mild weather.

Through much of the last several months Wavenumber-5 has been expressed by immense, blocking high pressure extending southeastward from the Aleutians. During that time, troughing has been the dominant feature along the U.S. West Coast, the tap to the Pineapple Express being turned on as cut-off Kona lows repeatedly developed near Hawaii and moseyed towards the U.S. mainland. The most potent of these events, and subsequently the largest swells, have come when the Jet Stream has extended unobstructed from Japan to the California coast.

While the first couple weeks of January brought abundant precipitation, the waves weren’t on par for the historically largest surf month of the year as the high extending from the Aleutians shortened the storm track across the North Pacific. A changing of the guard came mid-January with the first extension of the Jet (see Winterlust) and over the following six weeks there was a historical profusion of both waves and precipitation. In terms of surf, conditions were hit or miss (mostly miss), but the hits have been good to epic.

It's interesting to note that despite breaking the long standing precipitation record from the El Niño of 1982-83, the overall snowpack in the Sierra has not been as prolific. Warm AR events have meant that while many resorts are high enough in elevation to still count feet of snow, the overall snowpack in the Sierra has lagged behind the record-setting precipitation. It's still above average, to be fair, but may have damning implications for the state as we move through the dry season if we see a fairly rapid snowmelt.
 
Next chance of skunk: :roll:
Monday Night
A slight chance of rain after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Tuesday
A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 66.

Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
 
low to mid 90's F here, this week and probably next several at least.

Will probably also be at least that hot for my time off last week of the month. May not get as much stuff done as I was hoping to if it is--or have to do most of it at night. (I am getting to where I just can't take the heat like I used to, and still do hard work in it).
 
Now they're upping it to 40% chance for Tuesday morning. Usually by this time the rain is over and we're seeing the May/grey-June/gloom 80° weather with late night/early morning fog and low clouds in the LA basin but it's windy, clear and cool still, especially near the coast.
There's enough mid-day sun to keep Chomper active. He half-buries himself head first in the sun-warmed black Mexican beach pebbles at night, in a spot he hollowed out next to the west facing wall where the sun's energy is stored as heat.
Pretty intelligent little Russian steppe dweller he be, not about to be out smarted by "the girl child", fickle La Niña. :)
 
Now rain chance is completely gone from the forecast for the next week. :? The fickle La Niña girl must have run off with some other guy. :x

This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65. West wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Wednesday night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 67.
Thursday night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Friday night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
 
Still raining here. Forecast has two more systems with the last one on Wednesday night. Then it might finally clear up. I'm so ready for some dry weather. Went riding last Saturday and really got blasted with mud.
 
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