Coronavirus Calculations

marty

marty

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Joined
Apr 19, 2007
Messages
2,822
Location
Buffalo, New York USA
Need some help with math. Been looking at numbers on the internet. How I think about this. If life expectancy was 10 days and the total population was 10. Every day approximately one person would be born and approximately one person would die.

The life expectancy for U.S. in 2019 was 78.87 years

Days in a year 365

78.87 x 365 = 28,788

Therefore if there were 28,788 people on a island. Lets eliminate population growth or decline to simplify the math. Every day approximately one person would be born and approximately one person would die.

Now I having some math confusion? Look at numbers in New York State.

Population of New York State 19.45 million (2019). Under normal conditions how many people die every day?

19450000 / 28788 = 676

Is this 676 number of deaths per day correct?

If I am looking at the charts correctly. In about 60 days. New York Coronavirus Deaths 10,834

676 x 60 = 40560

So under normal conditions about 41,000 people in New York State die every 60 days. Why are we freaking out about 11,000 Coronavirus Deaths in 60 days?
 
It's just a few weeks, not sixty days. If it were left to run wild, in NYC there would be no working hospitals, police, ambulances, transport and bodies would be piling in the streets. It is only as small a number because of the shut down, and will blow up as soon as folks start mixing again. Feel lucky your not near there. Folks out in the rural parts of the country will see shortly as the one sherif and town doctor have no backup in a bunch of places.
 
Your numbers seem about right, Marty..
As a general guide , under “normal” conditions approx 1% of the population dies annually.
so for 20.0m in NYS that would be approx 550 deaths per day,..33,000 in 60 days
But , the suggestion is that these CV19 deaths are ADDITIONAL to the normal deaths (debateable)
..AND... that the 10,000 is a fraction of what it might have been ..( 10+-x more ?)...if there were no containment restrictions etc.
I struggle to understand why Chicago has only about 12% of the deaths/million that NY is seeing (Metro areas)
They both imposed lockdowns on the same days ?
Speedmd.. there were known CV19 cases in NY by early february
 
All the spots are on different time frame curves. NPR has put it all on one page. You have to enter a state and select show all states to see what they are projecting in utilization- shortages.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak#allstates

Johns Hopkins has the best site I have found on the county by county breakdowns.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

Yes there were cases in feb, Hill, but it has been close to a 1000 a day the last week. Never mind they are finding folks dead all over that were sent home to die. EMT's are picking up a 10x number of typical DOA's the last few days.
 
good question Marty
 
7.8 billion

60% get it, hopefully spread over three years

2% death rate

= 93 million deaths

All conservative numbers.

Yes we all die eventually, but death is something we traditionally fight against.

I completely agree, from our Mother Earth's POV, this would barely be a good start.

But if we can restructure our societies, so we can live more simply, consume and pollute much less lighten up on our interference with Her ecosystems and our fellow creatures

that would be a great silver lining as well.
 
You first! :lol:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality


Cases and mortality by country
Country...Confirmed...Deaths ....Case-Fatality..........Deaths/100k pop.
US 605,193... 25,757.............. 4.3%.............. 7.87
Italy 162,48....21,067............... 13.0%..............34.86
Spain 172,541.....18,056.............10.5%...........38.64
France 131,36...15,748........ .. 12.0%...... 23.51
United Kingdom 94,845...12,129....... 12.8% .....18.24
Iran 74,877.... 4,683....... 6.3%..... 5.72
Belgium 31,119.....4,157....... 13.4%..... 36.39
China 83,306..... 3,345..... 4.0% ..... 0.24
Germany 131,359...3,294 ..... 2.5% ... 3.97
Netherlands 27,580... 2,955.... 10.7%..... 17.15
Brazil 25,262.... 1,532 ..... 6.1%.... 0.73
Turkey 65,111.... 1,403 ..... 2.2% ....1.70
Switzerland 25,936 ....1,174.... 4.5%.... 13.78
Sweden 11,445..... 1,033..... 9.0%.... 10.14
Canada 27,034..... 899 ..... 3.3% ....2.43
 
speedmd said:
All the spots are on different time frame curves. NPR has put it all on one page. You have to enter a state and select show all states to see what they are projecting in utilization- shortages.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak#allstates
Click to expand...

Ok.. compare NY and Illinois.....
Peaks are the same within 2 days , but NY is 10x Illinois for both peak rate and total deaths ?
...from similar Metro populations ..approx 9 million ?
. ( most deaths are in the Metro areas)
Some questions need to be asked !

PS.. those Case/Fatality % figures are wortless.
They are a function of the number of confirmed cases,...which in turn are a function of the amount of testing done,.. and that is VERY variable between countries !
 
Made a mistake. Typed coronavirus deaths into Google. Saw this chart.
coronavirus_deaths.png
See Mar 15 to Apr 12. Yesterday was April 15th. I wrote 60 days. Duh its 30 days.

Here are corrected numbers.
************************************************************************************************************************************************
If I am looking at the charts correctly. In about 30 days. New York Coronavirus Deaths 10,834

676 x 30 = 20280

So under normal conditions about 20,000 people in New York State die every 30 days. Why are we freaking out about 11,000 Coronavirus Deaths in 30 days?
************************************************************************************************************************************************
To put this in perspective. Small town with a average of 2 deaths a month. This month one person died from COVID-19.

Better question? What were the total number of deaths in New York State from all causes, between the dates of March 15 and April 15.
 
speedmd said:
You first! [emoji38]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality


Cases and mortality by country
Country...Confirmed...Deaths ....Case-Fatality..........Deaths/100k pop.
US 605,193... 25,757.............. 4.3%.............. 7.87
Italy 162,48....21,067............... 13.0%..............34.86
Spain 172,541.....18,056.............10.5%...........38.64
France 131,36...15,748........ .. 12.0%...... 23.51
United Kingdom 94,845...12,129....... 12.8% .....18.24
Iran 74,877.... 4,683....... 6.3%..... 5.72
Belgium 31,119.....4,157....... 13.4%..... 36.39
China 83,306..... 3,345..... 4.0% ..... 0.24
Germany 131,359...3,294 ..... 2.5% ... 3.97
Netherlands 27,580... 2,955.... 10.7%..... 17.15
Brazil 25,262.... 1,532 ..... 6.1%.... 0.73
Turkey 65,111.... 1,403 ..... 2.2% ....1.70
Switzerland 25,936 ....1,174.... 4.5%.... 13.78
Sweden 11,445..... 1,033..... 9.0%.... 10.14
Canada 27,034..... 899 ..... 3.3% ....2.43
Click to expand...
Yes this sucker's barely started. Like halfway through the third step of a marathon
 
Marty, Your mixing NYC local 30 mile sq. area with the rest of the state. It's not a huge issue in a one horse town if the horse dies. The coyotes and vultures will take care of it. NY state is near 400 miles from MA to the PA border on Rt 90. Well over that from the northern most Canadian boarder to the end of long island. If it was all spread out evenly, you are correct, maybe 50% more deaths if all goes in a controllable fashion in a given time frame. Lots of folks are starting to look at it the way your going with this.

Unfortunately, it does not go so smoothly in the hot spots. Bodies are stacking up and tons of folks are dying from systems breaking down. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/bodies-found-new-jersey-nursing-home/index.html

recent university study.
a projected total of 5155.2 deaths expected for New York City from March 11-April 13, 2020. The reality was 18,551 deaths.
Click to expand...

more on excess mortalities
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/more-on-excess-mortality-and-covid19s-hidden-toll
 
I wish it was all so simple. These are lives not just numbers with that said.

Thinking of the numbers like the huge reduction in traffic, crime and other related deaths by the stay at home orders. The deaths maybe down if it ends tomorrow. The problem, the spread is only slowing not stopping. Then there is the deaths like heart attacks and other health related issues caused by contracting the Virus. Just saying the math is not that simple.

One thing for sure is we need to do something about our health care system.
 
Hillhater said:
speedmd said:
All the spots are on different time frame curves. NPR has put it all on one page. You have to enter a state and select show all states to see what they are projecting in utilization- shortages.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak#allstates
Click to expand...

Ok.. compare NY and Illinois.....
Peaks are the same within 2 days , but NY is 10x Illinois for both peak rate and total deaths ?
...from similar Metro populations ..approx 9 million ?
. ( most deaths are in the Metro areas)
Some questions need to be asked !

PS.. those Case/Fatality % figures are wortless.
They are a function of the number of confirmed cases,...which in turn are a function of the amount of testing done,.. and that is VERY variable between countries !
Click to expand...

No argument, the data is sketchy and the models sucky. That is what we have at the moment. NYC is following more closely what is happening in S. Europe. Models are updated daily. Thinking, the mid west is just starting to cook. If we do not get it under control, it will continue to build in the congested spots and no one will know exactly what caused the deaths. Yesterday, some 640 cases from a meat packing plant in S. Dakota.

Testing is a disaster. One of a friends sons passed away in Florida in late February from pneumonia. Healthy fit young man in his early forties. No test for covid, buried, and now parents are looking at testing remains. State - US gov. could care less. Same going on in most nursing homes.
 
ZeroEm said:
One thing for sure is we need to do something about our health care system.
Click to expand...
If you mean in the US,

We have no health care system.

What we currently have, cannot be called a system, it is an industry with thousands of businesses, each targeting different profitable niches.

without any focus on the health of the general population.

We desperately need to creat a health care system.
 
john61ct said:
ZeroEm said:
One thing for sure is we need to do something about our health care system.
Click to expand...
If you mean in the US,

We have no health care system.

What we currently have, cannot be called a system, it is an industry with thousands of businesses, each targeting different profitable niches.

without any focus on the health of the general population.

We desperately need to create a health care system.
Click to expand...


Amen brother

That is why I switched to mostly voting the Democratic party after a lifetime of voting Republican. I can see no reason why the richest nation in the world can't afford universal health care.
 
nicobie said:
I can see no reason why the richest nation in the world can't afford universal health care.
Click to expand...

Lobbyists and paid off politicians is the reason why there is no universal health care.

With the Wuhan, China virus and the economic downturn and the tax reserves depleted and going into trillions more debt, the best you can hope for is infrastructure projects to kick start the economy. Bridges, schools, repave, whatever else to build or repair.

Reading stories about people that cant afford their meds even when part is paid for. More stories about hospitals refusing patients based on coverage. No wonder people go ballistic.
 
markz said:
Reading stories about people that cant afford their meds even when part is paid for. More stories about hospitals refusing patients based on coverage. No wonder people go ballistic.
Click to expand...

I just hope when people go to vote they remember trump's inactions. He has screwed the little guy bad.
 
nicobie said:
markz said:
Reading stories about people that cant afford their meds even when part is paid for. More stories about hospitals refusing patients based on coverage. No wonder people go ballistic.
Click to expand...

I just hope when people go to vote they remember trump's inactions. He has screwed the little guy bad.
Click to expand...

Biden will probably win, just hope he remembers he is prez when he does win.

The Wuhan China Virus did Trump in.
 
I don't know why people are thinking 18 million corona deaths in 3 years. look at deaths and recoveries.

the corona virus is a light weight compared to the flu, 5million infected, 650,000 dead. heres a good story on some stats

https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932
 
People are making a big deal over an economically "small" number of deaths because if we do nothing there will be a much larger number of deaths. The "small" number of deaths means containment measures are working.

Oh and the numbers aren't actually that small covid-19 has claimed top cause of death in USA now.
 
flat tire said:
People are making a big deal over an economically "small" number of deaths because if we do nothing there will be a much larger number of deaths. The "small" number of deaths means containment measures are working.

Oh and the numbers aren't actually that small covid-19 has claimed top cause of death in USA now.
Click to expand...

I never saw that stat but in th US theyre calling everything a covid death. Dr.Birx explained it in a briefing heres a story about it.

https://www.oann.com/dr-birx-government-classifying-all-deaths-of-patients-with-coronavirus-as-covid-19-deaths/
 
speedmd said:
Goatman, why do you post links to propaganda? Seriously. :roll:
Click to expand...

because if you search for a video of Dr.Birx saying it, you cant find it. only the alternative sites and I didn't feel like searching for the video. so here is a link to the april.7 daily briefing. you need to skip to about 1:39:45. to hear the question and Dr.Birx answer it

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=april.7+daily+white+house+briefing&&view=detail&mid=872F391B062FEDAA8774872F391B062FEDAA8774&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dapril.7%2Bdaily%2Bwhite%2Bhouse%2Bbriefing%26FORM%3DHDRSC3
 
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