http://www.ebay.ca/itm/new-Two-18650-Rechargeable-Flashlight-Torch-Battery-5000mah-Sport-Goods-Supply-/190796128661?pt=Batteries_Chargers&hash=item2c6c55e195 this has gotta be fake, right? i saw mentioned $2.50 for a 3.7V 2.6Ah, this is $4.50 for a 3.7v 5Ah. they also claim the cell is 31g, giving it 596Wh/kg.
Be cautious with battery purchases. Big price drops soon
- Thread starter John in CR
- Start date
gensem
100 kW
ian.mich said:
Utterly overrated... Last time I check the best ones had 3.4ah and were made by Panasonic.
Sancho's Horse
1 kW
Batteries and renewables are where China intends to flex its muscle. They started down this path several years ago with batteries when they halted production at Johnson Controls lead-acid battery plant in China. It was part of their cleaning up the lead-acid production and recycling sectors. They announced this late 2011?, because frankly there were lots of small-time atrocious practices. Johnson Controls was not participating in these so much, but there was a consolidation movement under way, and they needed moved out of the way. I think there is a timetable for all producers to be making upwards of 200,000kwh of batteries per annum by Dec.31, 2013. The consolidation is common thing in China, but why I bring it up is their targeting of Johnson Controls.
However, the real flexing is to come: China is at war with Japan. There is a pretty decent article about a show in Japan which is popular: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/b...-battery-makers-bind.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Basic premise, Japanese company betting large format high quality, high technological expertise to rival the numerous mainland commoditization tsars, and delivering a final line “Once revered around the world, Made in Japan products are now being forced to fight grueling battles,” the narrator says in the final scene, set to booming orchestra music. “But we cannot falter. We must fight on.” (Ironically, where the US is on this is debatable, because this post could belong in the Boeing 787 thread just as easily).
China knows about this show, and the tack that Japan is taking, and they intend to use more slightly smaller format, and older tech...a la A123 to fight their fight. If this catches on with the Chinese people, and ironically, this show does as much to cause this as anything, the Chinese can and often do take all kinds of actions to further their national interest at the expense of ease and perhaps temporarily safety...and move in relative unison. I am trying to get a feeling if people in China have it in their heads that flooding the ebike market with LIFePo will help destroy a major bastion of Japanese industrial and technological might...large format batteries. If they do, then game over. The move will be far swifter than most might expect.
Cost of batteries ...going down...certainly. Cost of them getting here... going up...certainly. I am waiting until I get there before I make a battery purchase, because I think it might pay. I would not bank on huge changes for most people for a little bit, but relatively sooner than expected, because China remembers what the Japanese did to them during World War II...in living memory, and I find many in the generation in power now to still be pretty bitter. Cheap battery prices bitter.
However, the real flexing is to come: China is at war with Japan. There is a pretty decent article about a show in Japan which is popular: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/b...-battery-makers-bind.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Basic premise, Japanese company betting large format high quality, high technological expertise to rival the numerous mainland commoditization tsars, and delivering a final line “Once revered around the world, Made in Japan products are now being forced to fight grueling battles,” the narrator says in the final scene, set to booming orchestra music. “But we cannot falter. We must fight on.” (Ironically, where the US is on this is debatable, because this post could belong in the Boeing 787 thread just as easily).
China knows about this show, and the tack that Japan is taking, and they intend to use more slightly smaller format, and older tech...a la A123 to fight their fight. If this catches on with the Chinese people, and ironically, this show does as much to cause this as anything, the Chinese can and often do take all kinds of actions to further their national interest at the expense of ease and perhaps temporarily safety...and move in relative unison. I am trying to get a feeling if people in China have it in their heads that flooding the ebike market with LIFePo will help destroy a major bastion of Japanese industrial and technological might...large format batteries. If they do, then game over. The move will be far swifter than most might expect.
Cost of batteries ...going down...certainly. Cost of them getting here... going up...certainly. I am waiting until I get there before I make a battery purchase, because I think it might pay. I would not bank on huge changes for most people for a little bit, but relatively sooner than expected, because China remembers what the Japanese did to them during World War II...in living memory, and I find many in the generation in power now to still be pretty bitter. Cheap battery prices bitter.
Hillhater
100 TW
How so ??Sancho's Horse said:
Sure air freight may be getting expensive and tricky, but surface freight is still cheap and easy.
I estimate you could get about 750,000 of those 3Ahr , 18650 cells in a shipping container, which could be shipped most of the way around the world for $3k. giving a transport cost of about $0.4 per kWhr ( 100 cells ?) .
Even if that freight cost is wildly inflated, it still doesnt amount to much ..per cell...on a commercial scale.
dogman dan
1 PW
Truse me, the price WE pay, will be what the market will bear. They'll pocket any difference as long as they can get away with it. HK might be the guy who ruins it for the rest though.
Ishikawa
10 W
Don't hold your breath for good quality cheap Made in China batteries. I have few Chinese made batteries such as drill, flash light, radio etc but none of them are good, just a crappy, last few charges batteries. I won't use it for ebikes. They are just wasting a resource by make something don't last and make you to waste your money. I suspect the news is just a communist propaganda. Just like the Chairman Mao's. High quality, high capacity batteries are command high price all the time, IMHO.
liteCycles
10 W
miro13car
100 kW
just to clarify , because in what contest people use "made in China" therm where they throw all in one bag mixing and generelazing .Ishikawa said:
There are two THINGS
Made in China Chinese brand which has nothing to do with Wwestern brand which is often sweat shop with disregard for Healt and Safety.
Our Justin went there and saw how those hub are made in horrible conditions.
AND
there is made in China Western company product where all production facilites had been moved to China with identical robots and stuff like for example in Japan, only floor workers beeing Chinese.
Example SONY camera model such and such made in Japan SONY factory is supposed to be identical to the same model made in China SONY factory and for sure it is identical.
SO there are 2 differnt "animals" if it comes to "made in China".
So for quality it is important if it is brand name, not where it was made.
Hillhater
100 TW
miro13car said:
My friend ..
.. quality has little to do with location or the equipment used,..it is 95% down to the personnel and procedures.
dingoEsride
100 kW
There are many well known quality brands now made in China obviously because it's cheaper to manufacture, but is there a quality loss?, my new german branded AEG cordless drill impact driver is made there and many other European or Japan quality brands, I think it comes down to manufacturing specifications, well I hope quality is still there
agniusm
1 MW
miro13car said:
Agreed here. western companies have "instruction" for Chinese how part has to be made, using what excact materials, using what excact methods. There is another one, Chinese developed, made stuff for western market and products for eastern countries. Quality is different again.
From one vendor I heard that Chinese government passed the low on salary increase which should be direct result in price increase.
Ishikawa
10 W
Miro, have you ever heard that Sony manufactures top quality batteries in China. You are mixing up with manufacture and assembly. For example, in Canada, we do not manufacture a car, we do assemble. Top quality batteries are product of many years of R&D after Millions if not Billions dollars investment. Do you think any leading battery maker bring in the top secrete machinery and chemistry formula to China to produce the batteries only to find the formula to be stolen and machines got copied? You must be kidding right?
Here is an artical that says
So in the next two years we should see $400/kwh
Tuirnigy hard case packs are $279/kwh Right now!!!
If I go to Canadian EV and see Randy he said his price is $1.35 per ah the cells are 3.2v nominal so his prices are $422/kwh
So I dont see much happening price wise in the next two years. But battery tech will still advance.
And
So in the next two years we should see $400/kwh
Tuirnigy hard case packs are $279/kwh Right now!!!
If I go to Canadian EV and see Randy he said his price is $1.35 per ah the cells are 3.2v nominal so his prices are $422/kwh
So I dont see much happening price wise in the next two years. But battery tech will still advance.