The first half of February has continued the trend of pronounced heat in the Arctic with no signs of it letting up soon. The western U.S., which was also a hot spot in January, is continuing to see abnormal warmth this February as is the East Coast after a brief cold blast this weekend.
Global heat is somewhat a symptom of El Niño. The climate phenomenon of warm water in the eastern tropical Pacific might have passed its peak, but is still providing a little boost to global temperatures.
The big driver, though, is human-caused climate change, according to a Climate Central analysis.
With January off to record heat, it reinforces the likelihood that 2016 could be yet another record-setting year. The U.K. Met Office has already released its forecast for 2016. It expects the globe to "be at least as warm, if not warmer" than 2015, according to Chris Folland, a Met Office research fellow.
If 2016 sets another global temperature record, that would make it back-to-back-to-back years of record setting hot temperatures. That's never happened before.
And regardless of whether 2016 sets a record or not, some scientists think the world has stepped up to a new period of global warming. That doesn't mean every year will set a record, but "it seems to me quite likely that we have taken the next step up to a new level," National Center for Atmospheric Research climate scientist Kevin Trenberth told Climate Central last month.
Originally published on Climate Central.