ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica reach new highs

MJSfoto1956 said:
I love how people are so desperate to show that climate models are wrong. This article lays that nonsense to rest:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/03/15/the-first-climate-model-turns-50-and-predicted-global-warming-almost-perfectly/
:?: How does that article lay anything to rest ?
Its not even a model !
It simply refers to a study that proposed a correlation between CO2 levels and global temperature.
The article then simplisticly concludes the theory verified based on increased CO2 levels compared to reported temperature Records.
BUT..
..they ignor the controversy over the "adjustments" which have been made to temperature records ( adjustments that are directly proportional to the CO2 levels ?), and many other disputable alterations to "global" temperatures.
.. And even so, it is still only a "correlation" theory between CO2 and temperature, without any scientific proof.
....There doesnt seem to have been any consideration of the known periodic variations in Solar radiation, either ?
 
Hmm ? ... Some comments from the WSJ...

. Zimmerman, Doran. reported the results of a two-question online survey of selected scientists. Mr. Doran and Ms. Zimmerman claimed "97 percent of climate scientists agree" that global temperatures have risen and that humans are a significant contributing factor....... The survey was silent on whether the human impact is large enough to constitute a problem. Nor did it include solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists or astronomers, who are the scientists most likely to be aware of natural causes of climate change.
The "97 percent" figure in the Zimmerman/Doran survey represents the views of only 79 respondents who listed climate science as an area of expertise and said they published more than half of their recent peer-reviewed papers on climate change. Seventy-nine scientists—of the 3,146 who responded to the survey !

. Love Anderegg found that 97% to 98% of the 200 most prolific writers on climate change believe "anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for 'most' of the 'unequivocal' warming." There was no mention of how dangerous this climate change might be; and, of course, 200 researchers out of the thousands who have contributed to the climate science debate ..

Cook's work was quickly debunked. In Science and Education in August 2013, for example, David R. Legates (a professor of geography at the University of Delaware and former director of its Center for Climatic Research) and three coauthors reviewed the same papers as did Mr. Cook and found "only 41 papers—0.3 percent of all 11,944 abstracts or 1.0 percent of the 4,014 expressing an opinion, and not 97.1 percent—had been found to endorseAnderless" the claim that human activity is causing most of the current warming. Elsewhere, climate scientists including Craig Idso, Nicola Scafetta, Nir J. Shaviv and Nils-Axel Morner, whose research questions the alleged consensus, protested that Mr. Cook ignored or misrepresented their work.

... Oreskes, ....claimed to have examined abstracts of 928 articles published in scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and found that 75% supported the view that human activities are responsible for most of the observed warming over the previous 50 years while none directly dissented.
Ms. Oreskes's definition of consensus covered "man-made" but left out "dangerous"—and scores of articles by prominent scientists such as Richard Lindzen, John Christy, Sherwood Idso and Patrick Michaels, who question the consensus, were excluded. The methodology is also flawed. A study published earlier this year in Nature noted that abstracts of academic papers often contain claims that aren't substantiated in the papers.
.
So, Zimmermas's 97% is actually 79 scientists.
Anderlegg's. 97% was actually 194
Cook' 97% was a lie, and in reality only 41 papers
Oreskes only claimed 75% (696) , but even that was a highly flawed and biased survey.

Anyway, even accepting the flawed and biased surveys, there is onle a max figure of less than 700 actual scientists who constitute the mythical "97% of scientists" that is frequenty quoted.
That would imply there are only a total of approx 720 climate scientists in the world !
Its a shame no one consulted the other millions of scientists with relavent expertise, who just might have a view on this !
 
Hillhater said:
Anyway, even accepting the flawed and biased surveys, there is onle a max figure of less than 700 actual scientists who constitute the mythical "97% of scientists" that is frequenty quoted.
Nope. 97% of CLIMATE scientists. If you look at all scientists it's closer to 70-80%. And if you look just at petrochemical geologists - who stand to lose their jobs if climate change is taken seriously - it's more like 40%.

Imagine that!
Its a shame no one consulted the other millions of scientists with relavent expertise, who just might have a view on this !
They did. You must not have read the post. (Which is understandable; you have to maintain a pretty high level of ignorance to deny AGW.)
 
Hillhater said:
If you were a little more dilligent and honest in your obsevations, ....... You might have picked up where (at 51.50). He states that the "Russian Model" is the only one that predicted the "actual obsevations" over the last 10 years to date. None of the other models came close.
And also it was the only model that predicted the observed " temperature pause " that alarmists convieniently ignor
None of the future predictions are anything more than "crystal-ball-ese. Voodoo climate pseudoscience.". Including all the IPCC ramblings..


Not exactly. I looked this up in the IPCC AR5 report. They cherry picked the so called "Russian Model" INMCM4.0 from all the models used in AR5 because it showed the least amount of future warming (but still about 2C) by the end of the century. So that drawing for a flat line way below the others in Scott Adams "graph" is total BS. Then they claim it did a better job at matching the so-called "hiatus" (which is not a hiatus at all, but only a slowing of the rate of warming that really only exists if you cherry pick 1998 as a starting year). What they do not tell you is that since the AR5 report, the year 2016 happened and also 2017 and 2018, which puts a dagger in the heart of the "hiatus" and brings the observation record right back in line with the multi-model average from the AR5.
AR6 is currently in progress with results to be published in 2022. I predict right here and now that the 2016 temperature record will be broken at least two times between now and then, probably starting with this year.

Kind of technical, but here is the link to the modeling chapter in the AR5 report. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf
Inset 9.2, beginning on page 669 discusses the ability of models to match the "hiatus." Keep in mind, again, this is before 2016-2018 effectively ended the hiatus, which gives credence to their point that a 15-year change in warming rate is well within the noise of natural variability, which models are never going to match exactly, due the the quasi-random nature of certain events like El Nino and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
 
Speaking of not reading posts bill.....
Hillhater said:
.....
.....That would imply there are only a total of approx 720 climate scientists in the world !..
And which way do you want to spin this.?..
EITHER, the 97% refers only to the (720 ?) CLIMATE SCIENTISTS....
OR.... As you suggest , They did survey the millions of Scientists with relavent experience, ....
.......but only got 696 max who agree ??
Please point to the reference of a survey of all the millions of scientists ?
You have to have a high level of gulability to believe any of those 97% figures.
 
jimw1960 said:
Hillhater said:
If you were a little more dilligent and honest in your obsevations, ....... You might have picked up where (at 51.50). He states that the "Russian Model" is the only one that predicted the "actual obsevations" over the last 10 years to date. None of the other models came close.
And also it was the only model that predicted the observed " temperature pause " that alarmists convieniently ignor
None of the future predictions are anything more than "crystal-ball-ese. Voodoo climate pseudoscience.". Including all the IPCC ramblings..


.... They cherry picked the so called "Russian Model" INMCM4.0 from all the models used in AR5 because it showed the least amount of future warming (but still about 2C) by the end of the century. ......
:roll: :roll: Cherry picked ?? The whole point of the graph is that the "Russian Model" is the ONLY one with the lower predictions.
His white board diagram is a "visual aid" to emphasize the issue and not inteded as a accurate reproduction .
 
Hillhater said:
...they ignor [sic] the controversy over the "adjustments" which have been made to temperature records ( adjustments that are directly proportional to the CO2 levels ?), and many other disputable alterations to "global" temperatures.

Um, the so-called "russian" model (not associated at all with the Russian government btw) that you and FOX promote so much, clearly documents that they also made adjustments to get their data to get it to "fit" (did you bother to actually read it word for word?). Worse, they also admit that they "dropped" data so to be able to make it perform better. Worse still they further admit that their model misses the antarctic ice loss by 2.5x -- that is 250% for those mathematically challenged -- in other words useless. So much for being "more accurate than any other".

So whose model you gonna trust? One sponsored by Gazprom? SMH.

FWIW, this is the real reason that suddenly there is a new-never-heard-from-before model being promoted by FOX and friends: https://bellona.org/news/arctic/2019-01-moscows-response-to-climate-change-bring-it-on

You guys are all promoting propaganda and patting yourselves on the back. You should be ashamed of being patsies.
 
Speaking of "Ice Losses" ..
The largest glacier in the northern hemisphere has stopped retreating and is growing again..
Much to the surprise of experts and against all predictions for ice in Greenland .
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0329-3
 
Regarding the so-called "russian model", here's a quote using their own words:

We optimize the dynamical core parameter values by tuning all relevant dynamical fields to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1983–2009) forcing the dynamical core with prescribed surface temperature, surface humidity and cumulus cloud fraction.

I hope y'all realize that the ERA model referred to above is a specialized GCM that takes satellite measurements and then calculates such things as soil moisture, precipitation, air temperatures, surface temperatures….etc and then runs these calculated data sets through its own internal GCM to arrive at another data set. That is why they call it reanalysis. To quote from the ERA website even they admit to three huge errors: #1.) Tropical moisture larger than observed from 1991 onwards #2.) Precipitation greatly exceeds evaporation #3.) Spurious Arctic temperature trends. So any GCM that uses ERA datasets is using a worthless data set. Why does every GCM use it then? Because no one wants to spend the money collecting soil samples from all over the world. So what these Russian dudes are doing are throwing out all the complexity of GCMs and replacing it with a simple model that uses the same bad data. SMH.
 
Hillhater said:
Speaking of "Ice Losses" ..
The largest glacier in the northern hemisphere has stopped retreating and is growing again..
Much to the surprise of experts and against all predictions for ice in Greenland .
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0329-3

I've been to the Jakobshavn glacier during my graduate studies for 3 summers from 1994 to 1996. That glacier would have to keep growing for a couple of decades to gain back half of what it lost since then. Meanwhile, the Greenland Ice Sheet as a whole continues to lose mass at a rate of over 450 billion tons per year. Jakobshavn is but one of hundreds of outflows from the Greenland ice sheet and there are all sorts of reasons why a single glacier that is in retreat might suddenly start to advance. One mechanism could be it is getting lubricated from beneath by meltwater higher up on the glacier that disappears down into crevasses.
 
Hillhater said:
Please point to the reference of a survey of all the millions of scientists ?

Tell you what. Go to San Francisco next December and set up a table outside the annual American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference, and take a survey of everyone walking in the building. AGU (of which I am a member) is the world's largest union of Earth, ocean, atmospheric, and planetary scientists with over 60,000 members form 137 different countries. The annual conference typically has about 6,000 members in attendance.

Or even easier, just go to the agu.org website and read their position paper on human induced climate change: https://sciencepolicy.agu.org/files/2018/02/AGU-Climate-Change-Position-Statement-Final-2013.pdf
 
jimw1960 said:
Hillhater said:
Please point to the reference of a survey of all the millions of scientists ?

Tell you what. Go to San Francisco next December and set up a table outside the annual American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference, and take a survey of everyone walking in the building. AGU (of which I am a member) is the world's largest union of Earth, ocean, atmospheric, and planetary scientists with over 60,000 members form 137 different countries. The annual conference typically has about 6,000 members in attendance.

Or even easier, just go to the agu.org website and read their position paper on human induced climate change: https://sciencepolicy.agu.org/files/2018/02/AGU-Climate-Change-Position-Statement-Final-2013.pdf
? Wonder why those researchers did not do exactly that ?
It seems you are in agreement that there are many (thousands at least ?) scientists with an opinion on AGW.
How come then that those often quoted surveys could only muster at most 700 or so dubious positive results from the numerous attempts..??
..... then constrew that as 97% ??....... (And that is often quoted as "97% of Scientists" !..ignoring the climate focus )
 
"seems you are in agreement" is typical HH lazy rhetoric. He is getting very close to getting the ignore treatment as he seems to not have the social skills to understand when to STFU. Boring and predictable is becoming HH's MO.
 
Hillhater said:
How come then that those often quoted surveys could only muster at most 700 or so dubious positive results from the numerous attempts..??
..... then constrew that as 97% ??....... (And that is often quoted as "97% of Scientists" !..ignoring the climate focus )

All I can tell you is that I know or have met hundreds of Earth scientists--with varying degrees of expertise on the subject of climate change--over the last few decades. I have yet to meet a qualified scientist who doubts that the current warming trend is entirely or almost entirely due to humans (actually, it is more than entirely due to humans because we should otherwise be cooling now). Based on my experience, I'd say the consensus number is closer to 99% these days.
 
jimw1960 said:
All I can tell you is that I know or have met hundreds of Earth scientists--with varying degrees of expertise on the subject of climate change--over the last few decades. I have yet to meet a qualified scientist who doubts that the current warming trend is entirely or almost entirely due to humans (actually, it is more than 100% due to humans because we should otherwise be cooling now).
Funny story -

On another forum I knew a denier who denied everything. Planet was warming? NASA fudged the data! Glaciers melting? The warming is all natural; no one denies we are warming! (never noticing that he just contradicted himself.)

Then one day he saw something on a denier site and claimed "so man made climate change is PREVENTING THE NEXT ICE AGE! I guess you want another ice age, you stupid alarmists!"

I guess he had . . . flexible standards for truth. A good example of integrity in the age of Trump.
 
billvon said:
...I guess he had . . . flexible standards for truth. A good example of integrity in the age of Trump.

People like that get off when they poke others in the eye. Each poke is like an orgasm to them. Akin to rape of you ask me.

M
 
MJSfoto1956 said:
"seems you are in agreement" is typical HH lazy rhetoric. He is getting very close to getting the ignore treatment as he seems to not have the social skills to understand when to STFU. Boring and predictable is becoming HH's MO.
That sounds like a typical way someone might use to avoid a discussion that they fear they may lose .
 
Hillhater said:
It seems you are in agreement that there are many (thousands at least ?) scientists with an opinion on AGW. How come then that those often quoted surveys could only muster at most 700 or so dubious positive results from the numerous attempts..??.... then constrew that as 97% ??.......
The same way they will poll 4000 voters and then say "58% of voters support X." Even though there are something like 150 million voters in the US. It's basic statistics; extrapolating to a larger group from a smaller pool of samples. It's done in everything from public polling to manufacturing quality control to epidemiology. You honestly don't know that?
(And that is often quoted as "97% of Scientists" !..ignoring the climate focus )
Not really my fault if you are too lazy to read beyond the headline.
 
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/26/europe/longyearbyen-doomsday-vault-climate-change-intl/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/27/world/climate-change-greenland-glacier-growing-wxc-trnd/index.html
 
News from Greenland:

===========================
CBS NEWS August 19, 2019, 8:12 AM
NASA program trying to find out how fast Greenland's ice is melting

Greenland's ice sheet is melting six times faster than in the 1980s. This month, it lost 11 billion tons of surface ice in one day, enough to fill more than four million Olympic-sized swimming pools.

Summer came sooner there and is expected to last longer. Greenlanders said they've seen more extreme weather and fishermen are catching warmer-water fish. They're living with climate change and scientists have come from around the world to study why.

Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is in the fourth year of a five-year research project he designed. His team is dropping probes into the ocean to understand how the waters around Greenland are warming and contributing to the melting of glaciers.

On Saturday, Willis' team dropped probes telling them the saltiness and the temperature of the water during a nearly seven-hour flight covering more than 800 miles.

"We usually think of Greenland's ice as a sort of ice cube with a hairdryer on it, but in fact that ice cube is sitting in a pot of water too," Willis told Seth Doane for "CBS This Morning." "And the water is warming up as well and the two things together can combine to create sea level rise that happens much more rapidly than what we originally anticipated."
==============================

Wonder how the deniers will spin this?
 
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