TESLA to Plans to Build World’s Biggest Battery Factory!

[methods]

Those who "won" in the gold rush were not miners.... And there is no such thing as "overly honest".

Good pay, honorable work, reasonable government, time/place for fun.... that's a lot more interesting than prospecting on stock.

The only stock I invest in is the breadth and depth of of my abilities - and the abilities of those around me.

-methods

 

[speedmd]

Best wishes methods. Love the "overly honest" statement also. LOL

I had stock once, and I came to my senses and got rid of it all. No more feed bills, Vet bills, repairs to the barns, fields, stables. No more waking up before dawn or up late chasing stuff around. Lots more $$ and time to play now also. :lol:

 

[LockH]

I can be bought for 1.3B
Well...
As soon as somebody deposits a couple thousand into my PayPal (to put my stuff in storage and clean up the spot I am at)... plus another couple thousand to drive out, find a place, settle in, etc... I am there.
-methods

(Snort Snort)

 

[methods]

....I had stock once, and I came to my senses and got rid of it all. No more feed bills, Vet bills, .....

Ok... ES Still has its sense of humor. I am glad to hear it. Best way to neutralize a guy who is too serious is with another guy who can laugh.

...As soon as somebody deposits a couple thousand into my PayPal...-methods

(Snort Snort)

Why are you snorting Lock?
Dont think it could happen?
I do...

In fact... I am sure something like it will happen soon.

I feel like Captain Kirk and the Doc about to get beamed up... Scotty is being seduced by some blue woman when he should be sliding the controls and the doc and I are beaming in and out of two different places at once.



I can say one thing for sure... We are all expendable in one circle... and all mission critical in another. Key is finding the circle you want to spiral around in.

-methods

 

[LockH]

Hehe... Cap'n Kirk and gang. (In rumoured next version, Scotty rides an ebike that he first notices in above screencap. Doc got ebike though, refuses to share.)


Re chuckling earlier in this thread? Usual lofty goals of Ebiker Rebels. (Gawds, etc. Soon seen asking for quarters on streets after $$$ spent partying, fancy-dancy Ebikery Wizardly stuff and so on.)













So. Can I get a beam up too??? Please? (OK. And back. Told neighbour re dinner today.)







... and spiralling through the air `round a flame. Sooner or later we all burn up. Crazy Moth PPL.

EVentually. Yeah. Solar powers rock.



(Ooops. Gotta go. Feeding time at that funny place. Littered w/ electric vehicles and bits. Etc.)







Yes. Master Musky Guy Elon on an Eco-Friendly 20th-century Death Machine roll.

 

[methods]

 

[LockH]

Ya. Suspected LiPO-abuser. The hard stuff.

 

[methods]

Ok... back on topic

Having visited many government sites (Air force bases, National Laboratories, Army Bases, large scale production facilities....) I had made the assumption that they would select a location where they could utilize existing infrastructure. Most places (above) already have:

A ton of open space
Major power utility access
close to airports
"secure" from a... security standpoint
Large multi-story overbuilt buildings
a local workforce (just drive around any airforce)

Etc...

But
Then... if you really want to do something right... and you have access to unlimited power... I can see the logic in starting over from scratch.

To succeed... the level of planning... omg... I can only imagine how hard folks have thought on this subject. It is easy to hack something or start with a bounded problem (like... this is what we have to work with... do your best). On the other hand - when you start with a blank slate... pfffftttt.. the possibilities are endless.

I guess that is where Panasonic comes in.

Either way - the Tahoe Area (as we will now refer to it.... ) feels like a super good choice to me.

The only tickling concern I have is the fact that the ocean is not close by (pseudo random pleasure machine) and the casinos are (not-random money gobbling machine). When all those pure Californians get out into gold country and realize there are giant buildings everywhere full of hot scantily dressed women, high quality free food, 24 hour poker games at *any* stake, sigh....

We are really going to have to up the ante on the fun machine out there to keep people busy

Skiing and Snow Boarding are cool... definitely a winter highlight... but what about the summer?
Downhill ebiking?
Kite-biking?
er... can you kite-board on lake Tahoe? (probably... with some electric assist)
hrm...

We are going to need a new "hard core hobby" to keep the high energy folks busy. Something to replace the water.

Lake Tahoe is pretty uptight about sporting.
My parents speak of when they used to water ski up there... but no longer. You see a lot of "keep Tahoe blue" stickers around here (a few hours away). If it is about stirring up sediment... yea... I can see that logic.

But... if the pleasure craft in question were skimming along the surface of the lake powered by AIR thusters instead of water thrusters.....
Inefficiency in the name of fun is always a good bargain.

There are tales of Lake Tahoe...
Did I hear anyone say UNDER WATER ADVENTURE ???????

Lake Tahoe ... under water adventure

-methods

 

[Dauntless]

What percentage of the roster will be relocated to there? (Probably there will be a direct proportion to the percentage of specialists needed.) Are there so many locals they could mostly staff the facility IF the people there could do the jobs?

It calls to mind WHY there were no new cars built during WWII. It was because there was a shortage of skilled hands for the first few years, then once factory capacity had outstripped the war needs, the government didn't want to risk layoffs by transitioning redundant factories back to peacetime activities even as they continued to build out of date planes, etc., which sat in open fields until the war was over and were then dismantled. The Great Recession had so robbed America of the ability to produce there was an enormous shortage of factory skills when the war started, it would have been worse if Europe and Asia had not been buying war materials in the U.S. for several years before the war started.

Fast forward to the early 2000's. So many out of work factory workers. In SoCal it was the aerospace jobs that were lost, such as Boeing buying McDonnell Douglas and TRW Spacepark and relocating jobs to Washington and Texas. After a few years of parttime jobs in stores, where did these people end up?

Companies such as Miller Brewing that had undergone tremendous growth spurts 20-30 years earlier had seen their workforce stabilize as growth flatlined and the average employee age had grown, but the WWII veterans were already retiring and the first babyboomers were following suit. They feared the need to rapidly train huge numbers of beginners and maintain production.

The out of work veteran factory workers may not have stepped in at full speed, but training them was much faster than new kids would have been. The employers felt they dodged a bullet. But now that means there still hasn't been large numbers of new factory workers since the 1970's.

I just wonder. Has there been such a BIG plant opened in the U.S. in the last few decades? Is there anyone in this country who has done the job of developing so many people at once? If the plant is going somewhere with locals who really can't populate the building, oh my, what a nightmare trying to bring them in.

Relocating there might seem attractive to people BEFORE another 12,000 homes are built and there's traffic instantly every time they open a new shopping center. I wonder how many will want to stay once it's built up. You might be needing a reservation 6 months before any under water adventure.

 

[LockH]

Yes. Master Musky Guy Elon on an Eco-Friendly 20th-century Death Machine roll.

Was last line in more recent post in this thread Master. Translation maybe for... whomEVer aboard Good Ship ES:

Biz Meister Elon Musk has been dedicated recently in replacing the mistakes (?) of the last century, in transportation using large, heavy and fast vehicles (in relative to the lowly 2-3-wheeled thingamee.... originally designed mostly as a meat-eating machine), watt make no sense in physics/chemistry terms re watt-hours etc consumed per mile/kilometer/etc.



Oh. Sorry, meant to use the word "repeating".

 

[Hillhater]

I just wonder. Has there been such a BIG plant opened in the U.S. in the last few decades? Is there anyone in this country who has done the job of developing so many people at once?

It's certainly a big industrial venture, but not as daunting as some of the Military deployments that have been undertaken, many using a majority of rookey manpower into foreign environments. Major logistical organisation needed.
As with the Military, recruiting and developing a large workforce is all about getting the organisation correct initially.
Recruit key people who can then recruit and train their own "teams",.... Each of those team members will then repeat the process again, ...stirr and repeat etc until your "pyramid" workforce is complete.
Ideally you should get the key tech people on board before the equipment is specified and ordered.

 

[methods]

Yes. Master Musky Guy Elon on an Eco-Friendly 20th-century Death Machine roll.

Was last line in more recent post in this thread Master. Translation maybe for... whomEVer aboard Good Ship ES:
......

No offence intended...
Some times I just have no idea what you are talking about.

-methods

 

[LockH]

Sorry Capital M. Thought most here perhaps have already heard the name "Elon Musk" as the principal behind the Tesla.

Sorry again.

 

[teslanv]

Pretty sure EVeryone here knows who Elon Musk is.

I have to admit, LockH, the rest of your post was incomprehensible, at least to me.

 

[Arlo1]

Sorry lock but I have no idea either.
[youtube]hVKxTKljoo8[/youtube]

 

[arkmundi]

I have to admit, LockH, the rest of your post was incomprehensible, at least to me.

I like arcane verbiage, at times. What I got was that in the era of cost-free emissions (with its devastating consequences), that efficiency matters, a lot. Elon Musk so far is catering to the ultra-rich, identifies with those with money and power, and is undertaking a vast green-labelling venture that fundamentally ignores the essential constraints we must adopt. Face it, we here at ES are largely a crew of DIY eBikers. Our approach is different than Musk's. Its one that adopts the ultra-high efficiencies of Light electric vehicles. It is certainly greener. But there's not a whole lot of money in the approach, so will unlikely appeal to likes of Musk and his cadre.

I've asked myself the question of whether any of us, including myself, will benefit from the gigafactory now certain to be completed. Once that happens, the promise is a doubling of world-wide battery production over 2014. And cutting production costs 30%. That's huge. But I ask, will I be able to buy one of those batteries, made in America rather than China? I don't think so. All of the factory output will be sucked up by Tesla and Panasonic and the customers they serve. To lower their costs so as to compete and sell their product in the market. They are trying to compete with the conventional automobile.

Mind you, Elon Musk is one of my heroes. He's succeeding on an epic scale. But in my world, LockH and anyone adopting LEV tech for personal mobility are equally heroic. And the eBike and LEV approach will ultimately prove to be a much greater consequence in lowering our collective carbon footprint.

 

[Dauntless]

But I ask, will I be able to buy one of those batteries, made in America rather than China? I don't think so.

I've seen no sign that Elon has the Henry Ford mentality of making it available to EVERYONE. But the Gigafactory will push down prices from China as product close in price is forced cheaper, thus squeezing what is below them.

All while China is stealing Elon's technology and making cheap knockoffs. Hopefully they won't be creating a better high explosive. When someone makes the technology work better, at least some benefit works your way. Maybe even the real taxpayers in this country will grow to 54%.

 

[teslanv]

The Gigafactory will push down prices from China as product close in price is forced cheaper, thus squeezing what is below them.

All while China is stealing Elon's technology and making cheap knockoffs..

^^^ Exactly. - We won't be buying the Gigafactory cells, but all other cells will be cheaper (and assumably better?) because of the competition. - It's the beauty of the free market.

 

[LockH]

Sorry lock but I have no idea either.

"large, heavy and fast vehicles". So. EVer had an "ouchy" from being wacked by anybuddy operating a large, heavy and fast vehicle? (assuming survived the experience).

 

[arkmundi]

I'm reminded of conversations with wb9k on A123 and their attempt to bring down costs. I merely repeat that their factories are way, way below capacity. If they were producing nearer capacity, they would be able to drop prices substantially. Hence the mere existence of a new factory does not guarantee the kinds of price reductions they say are possible. If, and that's a big if, they are able to hit some price/performance point with their new $30K model so that demand for their vehicles rises to their goal of 500,000 vehicles a year, then perhaps. But its all future, projections, planning and so forth. But all that lowering the costs of li-ion as you suggest? Sorry, I remain skeptical.

 

[Hillhater]

Musk is rolling some big dice !
In order to make the Gigafactory viable, he needs to sell a ton of cars (gen 3)....
...but in order to sell well those cars must be priced well to appeal and compete in a fast changing market.
..further, they can only be priced well if the battery prices are low which means the factory running efficiently at high capacity,.
So it's a catch 22 situation !
If the Gen 3 etc doesn't sell well, then the Gigafactory won't be able to operate efficiently and keep the cell cost down .
...OR.. There could just be a Huge oversupply of cells that they have to sell off cheap ?? :lol:

 

[Arlo1]

He will "sell a tonn of cars". Already is and the model III will be an order of magnitude more.

We had a good friend bring a P85 model s to our wedding and I got to drive it. It was amazing. He then gave the whole wedding rides for most of the night and basically everyone got a ride and anyone who is thinking about a car in the next few years says they are getting a model III at least 15 model III's were sold that day! Once word gets out it will be the highest selling car in its class by far!

 

[The fingers]

Cheap cells made in the state next door. Somebody pinch me !

 

[Dauntless]

I merely repeat that their factories are way, way below capacity. If they were producing nearer capacity, they would be able to drop prices substantially. Hence the mere existence of a new factory does not guarantee the kinds of price reductions they say are possible.

Below capacity in 2010 and in 2020 are at least expected to be 2 different things. Nobody is calling it a sure thing, it's just that the upside is a fairly reasonable thing to be expecting.

I wonder what the real business model for those other 2 companies was. I wonder how many more American made vehicles will be in need of cells by then as compared to what didn't carry A123, etc. Waiting for a sure thing will be waiting forever. It'll take the Gigafactory being built and the reliable stream of cells to increase factory orders. The way the procurement works now the market is guaranteed to grow slowly. So the only way this factory can ever happen is by taking a big risk.

Cheap cells made in the state next door. Somebody pinch me !

Nope, not a nightmare, Gerry Brown really did let the biggest fish get away.

 

[Hillhater]

He will "sell a tonn of cars". Already is and the model III will be an order of magnitude more.
!

No, if you consider the 50k or so cars that Tesla has produced to date, to be a Tonn.... Then sure they will easily sell that many M3's
..But, to keep the giga factory at near even half it's reported capacity, will require 500k cars Every Year ! ...that is a big difference......a different kind of "Tonn" .!