Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Chalo said:
Hogwash. The rule of regression to the mean suggests that to the nearest approximation, everybody's kid will be a liability. And to look at the world as it is, that's absolutely true.
Definitely. But by the law of averages, looking at our lives compared to human history, we are all dead anyway. Not really the way I want to live my life.
 
Relevat for the thread:

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/april/key-electricity-trends-2018.html
For the first time, natural gas overtook coal to become the leading source of electricity in the OECD in 2018, accounting for 27.4% of the mix compared to 25.4% for coal. Meanwhile, the combined contribution of all renewable sources was also responsible for 27.4% of electricity generation, led by hydro (13.8%), then wind (7.0%) and solar (3.0%).

I note the last few years have seen steady relative increases in Wind and PV total generating capacity - ie. exponential growth!
IF it was installed capacity it would be a lot less exciting, as over time the same amount becomes obsolete, but its listed as generating capacity. Curve looks like what you see during the beginning of a disruption....
 
sendler2112 said:
Yes. Skimming the first 10 minutes of intro out of a 4 hour video series isn't going to be very enlightening. Like reading the preface of a book and calling it done. I know 4 hours is a lot. That's why I always recommend for newcomers to start with the 1:20 Earth Day 2017 presentation. This is a fast, 20 second per bullet point, 200 slide lecture which highlights a lot of great concepts in a very short amount of time. 50 minutes on 1.5X speed. Keep in mind also that this lecture was just an off the cuff local Earth day presentation he threw together not even intending it to be any kind of Magnum Opus. Not a rehearsed and produced Tedx. And seeks to condense an 80 hour, 1,200 page class into 1 hour. Maybe it is just much easier for me to understand what he is getting at since I have taken the whole class?
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https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
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I have watched these Nate Hagens videos you have provided and I think they are great.
I don't think its unreasonable to consider Nate Hagens a bit of an "energy genius" or at least expert.

The problem with the whole energy debate is that it's joined at the hip with politics, so the truth doesn't have nearly as much power as it does compared to what political side you are on.

Also, we live in a world where the most easily absorbable and likable ideas win, at least in the short term over what might actually work.
This fits perfectly with wind/solar energy generation vs Nuclear.

Politicians like AOC have one clear skill above anything else, they combine tribalism with easily absorbable ideas, and then project these easily absorbable ideas even further for more power.
Probably the simplest and most recent example for AOC is the "New Green Deal" or just a video of her making a speech to a particular audience, where she instinctively talked in the same manner as the people she was communicating to.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/aoc-accent-fake-southern-twitter-speech-nan-al-sharpton-ocasio-cortez-a8858171.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-accusations-southern-drawl/index.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-J8PJfvGzWg
[youtube]-J8PJfvGzWg[/youtube]
To me, these types of politicians are what I like to call SJW/virtue signalling "super cancers" because, ultimately, in no way possible, are they helpful to the general public, because it's all just dumb. https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/1121173231090708480
To me, Obama wasn't that hugely different on similarities, but AOC takes it to a whole new level.

Also, mainstream media news only likes to tell people what they like there to hear, their existence often depends on it, for example, look at the CNBC report where they merely just go over Tesla's numbers, but the video got more thumbs down than thumbs up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_PBJKY9OFI

Or another example that came out yesterday, where mainstream media giant CBS posted a news headline Tweet about how a kid "plunged" from a 3rd story shopping mall balcony, when the ugly truth was a man had thrown the white kid over the balcony after being rejected from his advances to females in the mall.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4mhj-kW4AUtt6b.jpg


Mark Dice then directly responded to the CBS to be more honest and said: "The white child was thrown off the balcony by a black man".
https://twitter.com/MarkDice/status/1119467802459430912
Most people are so sick of mainstream media trying to report things for maximum revenues and not being more honest that CBS got attacked on Twitter and actually fully deleted the news report, that's why you don't see the entire thread of Mark Dice's comment, because CBS deleted their own news tweet.

I came across this great article below the other day, what makes this article great is that its incredibly short and too the point.

Electric vehicles emit more CO2 than diesel ones, German study shows
http://www.brusselstimes.com/business/technology/15050/electric-vehicles-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones,-german-study-shows
When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix - in which coal still plays an important role - are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented on Wednesday at the Ifo Institute in Munich.

Mining and processing the lithium, cobalt and manganese used for batteries consume a great deal of energy. A Tesla Model 3 battery, for example, represents between 11 and 15 tonnes of CO2. Given a lifetime of 10 years and an annual travel distance of 15,000 kilometres, this translates into 73 to 98 grams of CO2 per kilometre, scientists Christoph Buchal, Hans-Dieter Karl and Hans-Werner Sinn noted in their study.

The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say.

When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example.

^The other thing to note, is this data is not new, there are probably 1,000s of articles out there that report similar information over the years, I have posted a few of them over time, so I would be surprised if people acted like this is new to them.
What is great (as said before) is they made the article remarkably short which helps absorbability.

The fact is that so much more co2 emissions are created making a Tesla battery-pack that it's around equivalent of 10 years worth of regular combustion vehicle driving.

I have been realising that a lot of this stuff is really just giant-sized IQ tests, IQ tests are ultimately just sets of puzzles.

If a person has all the information in front of them and still don't understand it, then its either the person doesn't want to understand it (political tribalism) or the person is just dumb.

To me when I look at a Tesla battery pack, I am thinking about how much energy, and thus co2 was emitted making the battery pack merely just to "hold energy".
The energy it takes to mine and refine and process lithium/cobalt/manganese/Aluminum/nickel is a lot.

Even if you just take the nickel coating of 18650/21700 cells, the energy and co2 emissions for the refinement and processing of nickel is a lot, this is one of the reasons why nickel sells at over $12,000 per ton compared to other metals
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/realtime-list
The cost of a refined metal comes from the major factors of "Demand", "Abundance" and "Cost of mining/refinement/processing".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lateritic_nickel_ore_deposits
Lateritic nickel ore is now the most common source of nickel quote :"They account for 73% of the continental world nickel resources and will be in the future the dominant source for the mining of nickel."
The rich "easy pickings" nickel ores used to only take about 11 tons of co2 per ton of nickel, but these mines are disappearing if not gone, as nickel demand continues, so just like oil, the drillers need to go further out and deeper to get the commodity that at one time almost flowed out of the nearby ground with easy extraction.

Go down to , page 96, "4.9.5 Assessment of effects" / Table 15 "Total Tonne per Tonne Produced"
https://epa.tas.gov.au/documents/proto%20resources%20-%20barnes%20hill%20nickel%20laterite%20project%20dpemp.pdf
So most commonly mined and refined nickel comes at around 57.9 tonnes of co2 emitted per 1 tonne of nickel.
View attachment 1
http://www.coalcostcurves.com.au/Carbon_Emissions_ME.pdf
https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/32524/1/muddetal2012copperemissionscleanenergy.pdf
https://res.mdpi.com/minerals/minerals-07-00168/article_deploy/minerals-07-00168-v2.pdf?filename=&attachment=1
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~cushman/books/Numbers/Chap1-Materials.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Arvind_Singh56/post/Anyone_here_has_a_list_of_references_for_Water_Footprint_in_Mining/attachment/59d6598479197b80779aefc2/AS%3A542797452722177%401506424405414/download/NGEK01.Hanna.Angel.refs.included.pdf
https://www.google.com/search?q=tonnes+co2e+/+tonne+of+metal+copper
2019-04-28 (2).png

Cells21700_8.png

So merely the nickel on Tesla battery packs to coat and ensure no corrosion occurs on the cell indirectly causes a remarkable amount of co2 to be emitted. This is common with all metal refinement, they all create far more co2 emissions weight than the weight of the finished metal itself.
And this battery making process is all just to create a battery that "holds energy" in a similar manner as a comparatively very simple petroleum fuel tank.
The reason why Tesla uses this type of lithium battery cell is due to the fact its the safest known lithium cell ever devised in lithium cell history. But it still needs to be made safer.
Also, none of this even takes into account the co2 emissions to acquire and put the energy into the battery pack in the first place.

If you check out of the "tonnes of co2e per tonne of metal produced" PDF, you find copper is frequently 8tonnes of co2 per 1 tonne producted copper.
So copper averages about 4-10 times, all depends on the particular mine, some copper mines are about 20 times the co2, as rich ores get used up, lower yielding copper ores become standard.
Magnesium is about 35times co2 in its produced weight.
Bauxite/Aluminium is typically 10 tons co2 per ton produced
https://www.metalary.com/lithium-price/
https://www.metalary.com/cobalt-price/
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cobalt-price-rally-2017-3
Lithium and Cobalt generally sit at very high costs per tonne, cobalt is typically now seen above $50,000 per ton, so logically the amount of energy extracting and refining these elements would of easily exceeded 10 tons of co2 per ton produced.
Gold is around an incredible 26,500kg CO2 per 1 "kg" produced, which helps explain why its so expensive, the energy to produce/refine the metal adds to the cost.

If you have a 1 tonne lithium battery it's easy to work out that there must of been at least 10 tonnes of co2 produced to make it, and that is probably being very much in the "giving it the benefit of the doubt" category, I would say from the co2 emissions to produce the core metals data for a lithium battery pack it would have to be at least 20 tonnes co2 in my opinion..

http://ecoscore.be/en/info/ecoscore/co2
https://www.transportenvironment.org/what-we-do/cars-and-co2
So for petroleum fuel it's around 120 g CO2/km
1 metric tonne of co2 is "0.00012 grams"
For the average car to make 100,000km of driving that is, 100,000km x 0.00012 = 12 tonnes of co2.
I drive an LPG car which is about 83 g of CO2/km
100,000km x 0.000082 = 8.2 tonnes of co2.

We have had people admit even on this forum that they get a new EV roughly every 3 years.

You can go to one of many scrap yard/insurance sites and see 100's of Tesla's that have been in an automobile accident with only a few thousand miles on the odometer, so these cars never got to displace an ICE vehicle's hoped equivalent emissions over time, they only contributed to it.
https://www.iaai.com/Search?Keyword=tesla

It's a known issue that Tesla's have been sent to the scrap yard for remarkably little visual damage because of inherent battery fire fears etc.
https://www.iaai.com/Vehicle?itemID=31742227&RowNumber=4&loadRecent=True
resizer


Insuance has gotten so expensive that a lot of insurers refuse to even offer insurance on Tesla cars, so now Tesla is offering its own insurance
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5Mf2l-W4AA6L4P.jpg
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-tesla-will-soon-launch-new-insurance-product-2019-4?r=US&IR=T

About 1 year ago clueless Tesla fans on Facebook etc were metaphorically ripping my head off telling me that Tesla's were massively safer against fire risks vs ICE cars but every day now that we have more of them out there, this is being proven wrong.

But fires of parked Tesla's going off are being posted on social media at a remarkably frequent basis,
https://twitter.com/ShanghaiJayin/status/1119997229530406913
https://www.thedailybeast.com/tesla-investigating-video-of-exploding-model-s-in-shanghai
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/burnt-model-3.149655/#post-3581054
https://patch.com/washington/sammamish/sammamish-home-badly-damaged-fire-tuesday-night
These cars, of course, won't be auctioned at insurance yards as they are well and truly destroyed.
The wreck is truly remarkable because of the extreme fire lithium batteries create
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/05/17/business/swiss-prosecutors-investigate-fatal-tesla-crash-suspect-thermal-runaway-battery/#.XL1kXegzaCo
b-tesla-a-20180518-870x578.jpg

As time goes it fire fighting departments will develop training and information videos on just how difficult and dangerous lithium-EV battery fires are https://youtu.be/3eFM9JJMH_0

Just like solar, people let their bias take over reality with how long a product "should last", most "green energy" products have 3-5 year warranties, where they are EVs or solar panels. But the claim is constantly "it will last 25 years", everyone knows a comparatively simple combustion car rarely lasts 25 years before its deemed unworthwhile, the difference is combustion vehicles are remarkably simpler and easier to repair.
It's the same with Solar panels https://youtu.be/0L_lzUhitx8?t=193 , it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that most solar panels are in fact deliberately made only to last a short multi-year warranty.

And I think it's the same with lithium battery products, I just don't see how it's going to last 25 years when you factor in real-world usage cycles. Sure you can find unusual examples, but most of this stuff ends up on the scrap yard in remarkably short timelines https://www.iaai.com/Search?Keyword=tesla

Panasonic_NCR20700A_2c_vs_3c.png
^Sure a EV battery pack isn't discharged this heavily, but the fact is the cells will lose substantial capacity over time, just like how we have seen with our own ebike battery packs. When using a high-power Supercharger on their Tesla for fast charging, they are in fact significantly shortening the total lifecycles of the Tesla battery pack, because we all have seen fast charging 18650 charts show equally damaging cycle life as heavy discharging tests. Such fast charging conveniences come at a price.

The other remarkable thing about Lithium cell technology is how little it has really changed over the last 15 years.
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=57256
^You can read through the first 5 pages of the "Thread for new battery breakthrough PR releases" and see incredibly convincing and sometimes very detailed descriptions/promises of how and why their new battery technology will be superior, but these posts are 12 years old now, and nothing has ultimately changed. I don't think lithium cell technology will ever change on a substantial level than what we see it doing now.

So electric cars at their current state, really are just a sadistic joke played on the general public, in terms of claiming to be lower in co2 emissions.
The only thing that prevents people from seeing a Tesla as more environmentally destructive than the traditional car, is the issue of EVs having invisible extra complexity and energy requirements in the manufacturing process that is not an easily absorbable fact.

Ideally and long term, people won't buy a lithium-based EV naively believing they are helping the planet, they will only buy one because they enjoy driving them.
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It's similar to just weighing up wind/solar vs Nuclear where the wind/solar states are typically emitting 10 times as much co2 than a nuclear state like France.
Right now France is emitting only 27grams of co2 per KWh which is truly remarkable for the entire country of 67 million people.
https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=false&solar=false&page=country&countryCode=FR&remote=true
^I am not going to snapshot it, u should have all seen it before.. Germany and SA are currently emitting almost 20 times more co2, if we were comparing car emissions it would be considered a complete joke.

D0ofSqnUwAERVvk.jpg

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I came across this chart a little SLCOE while ago and I think it's great.
Because it shows a real-world example of LCOE chart by actually factoring in the "system on the grid".
Instead of just showing the cost of creating energy where the wind is blowing 24/7 or the sun is shining 24/7 which just isn't how the real-world works, it shows what it would take to have a system of 100% renewables taking into account the real-world variables and shows the total cost at over $400/MWh, which I really think it roughly it should be, much more expensive.
View attachment 3
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-terna-plan/italys-terna-to-spend-record-sums-on-grid-for-shift-to-renewables-idUKKCN1R210L
 
TheBeastie said:
I have watched these Nate Hagens videos you have provided and I think they are great.
I don't think its unreasonable to consider Nate Hagens a bit of an "energy genius" or at least expert.
So it seems that Hagens is under attack because he is not as well known as Al Gore. Here is some of his history that I know. Nate and his writing partner D.J. White are both brilliant. I have actually convinced him in these newer works to tone down the high level language somewhat so that regular people will find it easier to understand. See the list of words below that I was inclined to look up for example. His first masters degree was with honors from the business school at U. Chicago. He went to Wall Street and quickly rose past VP at Lehman Bros. to owning his own investment firm where he managed money for billionaires. He soon realized that his clients were actually quite miserable much of the time and that all of this consumption was ruining the Earth so he walked away from $half a million /year and went hiking with just him and his dog for two years to have time to read and study and clarify his thoughts. He went back to school at U. Vermont and received a PHD in a custom program that allowed him to pursue the seemingly disparate studies of evolutionary neurochemistry/ economy (already a former Wall Street genius)/ energy-petroleum geology/ ecology-resource depletion. How it all fits together (Synthesis). He then went on to write for an emagazine and forum. The Oil Drum.
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http://theoildrum.com/special/archives
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And now teaches Reality 101 as an honors course at U. Minnesota.
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https://honors.umn.edu/hsem-2624h
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D.J. White is also an energy expert who saved his money from initially working in oil exploration and got out when he too realized it was a path to an inevitable resource depletion lifestyle as far back as the mid 70's. He decided not to have children and adopt instead. Dolphins. He went back to school to receive certification to set up a dolphin research facility and was instrumental in changing and enforcing worldwide laws for dolphin safe commercial fishing practices. And judging from his language skills in their writing is also a genius although I have never personally spoken to him.
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TheBeastie said:
Also, we live in a world where the most easily absorbable and likable ideas win, at least in the short term over what might actually work.
Tribalism. Confirmation bias. " It never fails to amaze me at the infinite capacity of the human brain to resist the introduction of useful knowledge"
Power words examples:
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Narative and Metaphor. Conjur up shared images
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Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias,[Note 1] is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
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asceticism=severe self-discipline and avoidance of all forms of indulgence, typically for religious reasons.
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mirror neuron sytem=shared pain
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psychic numbing” which is a tendency for individuals or societies to withdraw attention from past traumatic experiences
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Veblen goods= status symbols (Ferrari)
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fundamental attribution error....In addition to the physical benefits of greater numbers, group delineations affect our psychology as well. Within our own groups we tend to attribute our successes to our own smarts and personalities, and our failures to misfortune or the bad actions of outgroups - termed in psychology as
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Machiavellian =cunning, scheming, and unscrupulous, especially in politics or in advancing one's career.
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A collective action problem =a situation whereby if everyone performed a certain action, all would be better off, but the high cost to an individual of doing the action makes it likely that few (or no one) will perform that action.
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tautology=the saying of the same thing twice in different words, generally considered to be a fault of style
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Mutable=liable to change.
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nascent=just coming into existence and beginning to display signs of future potential.
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omnibus=a volume containing several novels or other items previously published separately
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aphorism=a pithy observation that contains a general truth, such as, “if it ain't broke, don't fix it.”
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teological=a doctrine explaining phenomena by final causes
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restive=unable to keep still or silent and becoming increasingly difficult to control, especially because of impatience, dissatisfaction, or boredom.
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Profligate, as a noun or as an adjective, implies recklessly wasting your money on extravagant luxury.
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monomorphic=having or existing in only one form, in particular.
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apocryphal=(of a story or statement) of doubtful authenticity, although widely circulated as being true.
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a widow's cruse = An inexhastable supply.
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largesse= generosity in bestowing money or gifts upon others.
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non-sequitur=an inference that does not follow from the premises; specifically : a fallacy.
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cornucopian= someone who thinks resources will never run out.
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Immediacy Fallacy = As we’re all aware, sometimes a perfectly intelligent human will latch onto a notion and interpret all data in such a way as to confirm that notion.
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axiomatic=self-evident or unquestionable
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High excergy= eletricity can do more stuff, more versatile. often close to 100%
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Pecuniary= of or relating to money
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stochastic=random variable
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solipsism=Philosophy. the theory that only the self exists, or can be proved to exist. 2. extreme preoccupation with and indulgence of one's feelings, desires, etc.; egoistic self-absorption
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benighted =in a state of pitiful or contemptible intellectual or moral ignorance
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Anthropic=a philosophical consideration that observations of the Universe must be compatible with the conscious and sapient life that observes it.
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inimical=tending to obstruct or harm. unfriendly; hostile.
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Tropism=The turning of all or part of an organism in a particular direction.
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ab initio= from the beginning, right off the bat
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pareto efficiency= in a system, changing one thing for the better little by little until it is as good as it can be without taking away from the best of anything else.
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apoplectic= overcome with anger
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plutocracy= government by the wealthy
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summum bonum= highest good
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verdical = truthful
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Primum non nocere-"First do no harm."
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Deus ex Machina = a person or thing (as in fiction or drama) that appears or is introduced suddenly and unexpectedly and provides a contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty.
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eating the lotus=They started at once, and went about among the Lotus-eaters, who did them no hurt, but gave them to eat of the lotus, which was so delicious that those who ate of it left off caring about home, and did not even want to go back and say what had happened to them, but were for staying and munching lotus
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asymptote = An asymptote is a line or curve that approaches a given curve arbitrarily closely
 
"The fact is that so much more co2 emissions are created making a Tesla battery-pack that it's around equivalent of 10 years worth of regular combustion vehicle driving."

This is typical anti electric disinformation. It treats battery production as if it were the same as oil refining, ignoring the fact that those battery components will still be storing energy AT LEAST 25 years after they were refined. That's how long early lithium packs have lasted (at over 85% capacity) in 1st gen hybrids. Even when a cell fails, it's a rich enough source of expensive materials that, given the accessibility and density of those minerals, it economically worthwhile to recycle even the minerals present at low percentages. Once again, oil and NG, once extracted, refined, and burned, is GONE, all that's left is pollutants. AND that energy is mostly wasted as heat, less than 30% of it is available as motive power.

Claiming that a reusable, fully recyclable energy storage material, that stores and releases energy at TWICE the overall efficiency of an ICE, is "dirtier" than that ICE is just stupid. Or possibly lies by a paid shill.
 
It is also comparing the best of very mature ICE technology to the worst case BEV (Tesla batteries are by far the largest on the market) with fledgling battery tech.

EV battery tech must, and likely will, follow other electronic tech and become cheaper and less resource intensive (same thing, really) to manufacture in the coming decade or three.
 
Hopefully the current battery technology is the equivalent of a vacuum tube and when the transistor solid state equivalent with a sodium solid state battery is developed we may well see electric cars with 600 miles range.

The theory is there it's just getting a result that works over a long period of time it's no good making the battery to have 5 or 6 cycles and game over.
 
classicalgas said:
"The fact is that so much more co2 emissions are created making a Tesla battery-pack that it's around equivalent of 10 years worth of regular combustion vehicle driving."

This is typical anti electric disinformation. It treats battery production as if it were the same as oil refining, ignoring the fact that those battery components will still be storing energy AT LEAST 25 years after they were refined. That's how long early lithium packs have lasted (at over 85% capacity) in 1st gen hybrids.
Im struggling to remember a hybrid with a lithium pack that was available in 1994 ?
Please identify these 25yr old lithium cells .
But it doesnt matter because those batteries have made their CO2 contribution , all at once, in full, before they even turn any wheels....whilst the ICE will spread its CO2 over its lifetime .
So if you believe the CO2 “crisis” needs action NOW...not in 10 years time,..then the ICE is the best choice. Of those two.
 
Hillhater said:
Im struggling to remember a hybrid with a lithium pack that was available in 1994 ?
Please identify these 25yr old lithium cells .

um, if you actually read the words he wrote instead of mouthing off, he stated the COMPONENTS will last 25 yrs (which is being rather conservative). Gasoline once burned cannot be "recovered" and in fact the exhaust from ICE represents an externality that the taxpayer must pay for sooner or later.

M
 
classicalgas said:
This is typical anti electric disinformation. It treats battery production as if it were the same as oil refining, ignoring the fact that those battery components will still be storing energy AT LEAST 25 years after they were refined. That's how long early lithium packs have lasted (at over 85% capacity) in 1st gen hybrids.

The words they wrote
 
Hillhater said:
But it doesnt matter because those batteries have made their CO2 contribution , all at once, in full, before they even turn any wheels....whilst the ICE will spread its CO2 over its lifetime .
So if you believe the CO2 “crisis” needs action NOW...not in 10 years time,..then the ICE is the best choice. Of those two.
Like solving your credit card debt "crisis" by getting more credit cards! Clearly a better choice than reducing spending. Reducing spending doesn't solve your problem!
 
"But saying that depletion is at the basis of our troubles is politically incorrect and unspeakable in the public debate. So, most Italians don't understand the reasons for what's going on. They only perceive that their life is becoming harder and harder, despite what they are being told on TV. Their reaction is to lash out at whoever or whatever they think is the cause of their economic decline"
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https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.co...n=Feed:+blogspot/XuxAQb+(+Cassandra's+Legacy)
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TheBeastie said:
You can go to one of many scrap yard/insurance sites and see 100's of Tesla's that have been in an automobile accident with only a few thousand miles on the odometer, so these cars never got to displace an ICE vehicle's hoped equivalent emissions over time . . .
Instead, those junked batteries go into ebikes and BESS's, allowing us to get batteries for VERY cheap. Win for us (and the environment.)
But fires of parked Tesla's going off are being posted on social media at a remarkably frequent basis
At about 1% of the rate of gas cars.

Google "car fire" - all top results are the Tesla in China

Google "car fire -tesla" -
======================
About 1,060,000,000 results (0.23 seconds)

FDNY investigating car fire on Staten Island
SILive.com-Apr 21, 2019
STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- A car caught fire on Sunday afternoon after someone walking by might have thrown something in the car, possibly a ...

Crews battle car fire in Medford
Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7News-28 minutes ago
MEDFORD, MASS. (WHDH) - Crews battled a car fire Monday morning in Medford. Firefighters responding to the area of Winthrop Street were ...

Firefighters put out car fire off Highway 101 and Grand Avenue in San Luis Obispo
KEYT-20 hours ago
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, Calif. - CAL FIRE San Luis Obispo along with Five Cities Fire Authority put out a car fire stemming from a vehicle ...

Car catches fire off Hwy 101 in Arroyo Grande
KSBY San Luis Obispo News-22 hours ago

Fire destroys car in Arroyo Grande, video
Cal Coast News-4 hours ago
FCFA and @CALFIRE_SLO responded to a vehicle accident with fire in vegetation SB 101 / Grand. Thankfully all occupants out of the car and ...

2 people pulled from car moments before it caught fire on I-10 East at ...
KTRK-TV-9 hours ago
3-car accident on I-10E, one vehicle caught fire! ... ABC13 learned that a child was in one of the cars involved but not in the vehicle that burned.

Firefighters in Marion County respond to morning car fire
WBTW - Myrtle Beach and Florence SC-Apr 21, 2019
MARION, SC (WBTW) - Firefighters with the Marion Rural Fire Department were called to put out a car fire early Sunday morning. According to ...

Car fire spreads to two residences
Lincoln Courier-14 hours ago
A car fire spread to two residences in the 1000 block of Bryn Mawr Boulevard around 1 p.m. Sunday. The fire got into the interior of both houses ...

Car fire backs up traffic on I-90
WIVB.com - News 4-Apr 21, 2019
CHEEKTOWAGA, N.Y. (WIVB) - A car fire backed up traffic on I-90 WB near Walden Ave. on Friday morning. Take a look at the scene in the ...

VIDEO: Firefighters Extinguish Truck Fire on Easter Sunday
framinghamsource.com-5 hours ago
Responding to the fire was Engine 3, Ladder 3, Engine 1, Engine 5, Car 2 and an ambulance, said Framingham Assistant Fire Chief Michael ...
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I counted about 60 stories just talking about gas car fires today and yesterday. And those are just the ones that made the news.

Funny how you missed those, eh?
 
MJSfoto1956 said:
Hillhater said:
Im struggling to remember a hybrid with a lithium pack that was available in 1994 ?
Please identify these 25yr old lithium cells .

um, if you actually read the words he wrote instead of mouthing off, he stated the COMPONENTS will last 25 yrs (which is being rather conservative).
.?. I think its you with the eyesight/reading/comprehension/mouth ,..problem!
His statement..
.....those battery components will still be storing energy AT LEAST 25 years after they were refined. That's how long early lithium packs have lasted (at over 85% capacity) in 1st gen hybrids.
Now, which part of .....“25 years...thats how long lithium packs have lasted in 1st gen hybrids”. Dont you understand ??
Of course the “components” (Lithium, Nickel, etc). of lithium cells will last a long time but i doubt anyone will be using 25yr old lithium cells when new , better , lighter, more powerful, cheaper, safer, etc etc etc are available.
( well thats what you guys keep forcasting ...isnt it ? :roll: :roll:
 
billvon said:
Hillhater said:
But it doesnt matter because those batteries have made their CO2 contribution , all at once, in full, before they even turn any wheels....whilst the ICE will spread its CO2 over its lifetime .
So if you believe the CO2 “crisis” needs action NOW...not in 10 years time,..then the ICE is the best choice. Of those two.
Like solving your credit card debt "crisis" by getting more credit cards! Clearly a better choice than reducing spending. Reducing spending doesn't solve your problem!
No.. its not “like” that...
It is like ACTUALLY. Pumping all 10 years worth of CO2 into the environment NOW.....rather than releasing the same amount progressively over 10 years.
Which is worse according to current CAGW cult theory ?
 
billvon said:
TheBeastie said:
You can go to one of many scrap yard/insurance sites and see 100's of Tesla's that have been in an automobile accident with only a few thousand miles on the odometer, so these cars never got to displace an ICE vehicle's hoped equivalent emissions over time . . .
Instead, those junked batteries go into ebikes and BESS's, ...
Just what % of junked Tesla cells end up in Ebikes or BESS systems ??
Take a guess ... a realistic one , not a fantasy .... i will bet its less than 5% of the Mod S packs
Model 3 packs are practically impossible to “dismantle” for DIY use of individual cells and the number of folk with the skills and desire to reuses even modules as BESS systems is a tiny fraction of the population.
Sorry to pop your bubble.
 
sendler2112 said:
Yes. Skimming the first 10 minutes of intro out of a 4 hour video series isn't going to be very enlightening. Like reading the preface of a book and calling it done.

I consider it like reading the abstract of a paper - it tells you if it's worth reading the rest. In this case I'm not overly interested in someone's opinions/philosophy about everything that's wrong with society and how it's all going to end badly but no suggestion on how to fix things. That comes off as a moaning rant. It seems TheBeastie is a fan, though...
 
Hillhater said:
It is like ACTUALLY. Pumping all 10 years worth of CO2 into the environment NOW.....rather than releasing the same amount progressively over 10 years.
Which is worse according to current CAGW cult theory ?

It actually makes little difference whether X amount of CO2 is emitted now or in 10 years if we keep emitting at a sustained level as it remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, so it's the total emitted that matters. We need to cut emissions drastically and soon, but your specious argument favouring ICE ties us to the same high level, sustained emissions forever by retaining ICE as the status quo and not developing improved battery tech. De-carbonising transport requires a means of locomotion that, most importantly, emits nothing at the point of use. Ensuring these vehicles are fed with genuinely low-impact materials and electricity are refinements that will (must) be made as the whole infrastructure gradually improves. This is why the "electric cars are stupid because the electricity is produced from coal" argument is stupid - it assumes all electricity must always be produced from coal.

CO2 aside, zero emission vehicles also prevent air pollution that gives us asthma and lung cancer and all that fun stuff.
 
Punx0r said:
It seems TheBeastie is a fan, though...

He has apparently actually watched the Hagens lecture instead of guessing what it might be about and leaving his head in the sand. Even if you continue to refuse, I hope that others here will take up my recommendation to check it out. Ignoring these concepts may be blissful but doesn't help us gain the appropriate sense of urgency in setting our long term plans. Everything has to change.
.
https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
.
 
Hillhater said:
Just what % of junked Tesla cells end up in Ebikes or BESS systems ??
Take a guess ... a realistic one , not a fantasy .... i will bet its less than 5% of the Mod S packs
Tesla? Not sure, never looked into it, other than the ones I have. Given how quickly they fly off the shelves here there's a pretty strong demand.

Leaf? 100% for quite a while. You couldn't get used Leaf packs because they were all going to a university grid scale storage project; I tried.

Model 3 packs are practically impossible to “dismantle” for DIY use of individual cells
Right. People use the modules. Here's a used model 3 module:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2018-Tesla-Model-3-s-Battery-Module-Pack-19-20KWh-2170-Cells-section-3k-miles/173747761511?hash=item28742c7167:g:d4QAAOSwxrJcQd-Y

Not that useful to me because it's a 25S pack, so the voltage is too high. I generally use either the Tesla/Smart Fortwo pack (3kwhr, 15S) or the LG Chem/Renault Zoe pack (2.6kwhr, 16S.) The 15S works well for 48V inverter applications; the 16S works for ebikes.
and the number of folk with the skills and desire to reuses even modules as BESS systems is a tiny fraction of the population.
You mean like . . . us? And grid scale storage companies?

Think before you post.
 
Hillhater said:
No.. its not “like” that...
It is exactly like that. With new credit cards, you can just keep spending, and don't have to worry about them until much later! What could go wrong? And with climate change, you can just pass your credit card bills off to your kids.

No one wants to hear "no, you have to be responsible, plan long term to manage your spending and your debt." Much easier just to deny the problem.
 
billvon said:
. With new credit cards, you can just keep spending, and don't have to worry about them until much later! ..............

Ignoring your “credit card” attempts to distract from the CO2 question.....
You are saying then,..that its better to dump 10 years worth of CO2 into the atmosphere in one dose now, rather than the same amount progressively over 10 years ?
 
Hillhater said:
Ignoring your “credit card” attempts to distract from the CO2 question.....You are saying then,..that its better to dump 10 years worth of CO2 into the atmosphere in one dose now, rather than the same amount progressively over 10 years ?
Yes - if, in ten years, you can stop dumping altogether. That's a net win. With an EV, once you hit the breakeven point, everything from there on out is a win. With a gas car, you keep dumping - you never win.
 
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