Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[sendler2112]

So we obviously need to quit wasting time and money on new football stadiums and theme parks and cruise ships and start building GigaFactories by the dozens.

 

[billvon]

So we obviously need to quit wasting time and money on new football stadiums and theme parks and cruise ships and start building GigaFactories by the dozens.

Why? We have 141 refineries in the US and 1500 coal mines - and we still manage to build all those stadiums and theme parks. Surely we can manage to add a few dozen battery factories.

 

[billvon]

...Or, 4.2 years with 100 similar factories !
....assuming they are not all dedicated to EV battery production, which is the main driver of battery production plant proposals so far .

Many of them WILL be dedicated to EV battery production. Which is almost as good; EV's are mobile batteries that can charge at selectable times, and thus serve as a sink for all that "unreliable" wind and solar power.

 

[TheBeastie]

Was a pretty big storm in Victoria the other night.
Widespread blackouts across Victoria have progressively been fixed after thunderstorms lashed the state.
More than 100,000 properties were without power at one point on Tuesday night when wild wind gusts reaching up to 117km/h felled trees and powerlines.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/no-electricity-for-24000-vic-customers/news-story/3d6c08d30c1dfee82d92f2fd889ab31b

And because South Australia's huge use of renewable energy via wind farms they constantly pull 750MW of power from Victoria's coal power-stations via the interstate electricity grid so they can pretend they are on just renewables combined with Gas, diesel but no coal.
So when the power-lines went down in Victoria it tripped the Loy Yang Victorian coal power-station to go offline and so South Australia had to rely on its Tesla battery before switching on more Gas and Diesel. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loy_Yang_Power_Station
South Australia’s Musk battery responds to power failure
The world’s largest lithium-ion battery, built by tech billionaire Elon Musk, responded quickly last week when the coal-fired Loy Yang power plant tripped and went offline.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/south-australias-musk-battery-responds-to-power-failure/news-story/46b660effde93757555dcf3cf4b186e6
The SA mob say this is an achievement, but to me, all it really proves is that they are hopelessly addicted to Victorian coal and are hypocrites.

Anyone who follows the news knows Tesla continues to use cobalt in all its cells.
Press announcements by Elon Musk even when asked directly claim his batteries will continue to use cobalt for grid storage via NMC and NCA as well as in their vehicles. A quick google search of Tesla NCA NMC brings endless articles on this fact.
Typically, lithium-ion NCA batteries use a combination of 80% nickel, 15% cobalt and 5% aluminum.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on the company’s earnings call that Tesla will be using a high energy lithium-ion NCA battery for its new grid battery.
http://fortune.com/2015/05/18/tesla-grid-batteries-chemistry/
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/teslas-expected-truck-prices-are-much-lower-than-experts-predicted/

The reports used to be that about 60,000 children on the Congo are digging up cobalt so everyone can feel good about buying an electric vehicle and making the world a better place.
Looking at some of the newer videos from the BBC and Skynews on African kids mining cobalt https://youtu.be/JcJ8me22NVs it does look a lot better than it used to be, I reckon I can only see about 100 kids there digging away in that cobalt mine and only a few being threatened with being beaten for not working hard enough, maybe its the cameras being there but still quite an improvement.

[youtube]JcJ8me22NVs[/youtube]

Still the problem is just like videos of windfarms chopping down eagles and being the largest cause of 10km2 radioactive sludge lakes https://youtu.be/w87LBiXwwdE etc, the public tends to blame the eagle and if anything.
It's believed the Tesla Semi truck requires a battery about 23tons in weight so that's a lot of cobalt mined by African kids to make people believe they are helping the world.
https://qz.com/1131928/elon-musks-tesla-semi-everything-you-need-to-know/

The whole thing reminds me of Ozzie Zehner's point that peoples mind frame is like the AI from Hal9000 in the movie 2001 a space odyssey movie https://youtu.be/v6uVnyjTb58?t=16m7s where the computer decides to kill the humans on the spaceship to achieve the goal of the mission because they were merely getting in the way.
It's the same with people. People believe they have a good sense of their ethical bearings but when it comes to renewable energy they may as well be the head commander at a Nazi death camp.
https://youtu.be/v6uVnyjTb58?t=16m7s

No one seems to blink an eyelid at the real world statistics on solar generation and size that prove you need a solar farm that's about 600km2 to replace a single power-station. Even if that solar farm is going to kill tortoises in the USA desert or Koala habitat in Queensland. Or the latest idea of just covering the ocean and wiping out all sea life, and you're opening up your self to attack to point out African kids digging cobalt for batteries. If BP or ExxonMobil had kids digging for oil everyone would be out in the streets in protest.

So South Australia's big Tesla battery that could charge hopefully 100 Tesla trucks is still completely unethical. And its pretty disturbing that most of the leftist Greens are cheering its switch on, knowing that Australian taxpayers paid for and subsidized the exploitation of African children in the Conga as a great achievement.

 

[billvon]

The reports used to be that about 60,000 children on the Congo are digging up cobalt so everyone can feel good about buying an electric vehicle and making the world a better place.

Yep. And the thousands of children who work the African diamond mines so that people can feel good about buying their fiancees a big "symbol of love." And the thousands of children (and adults) who die in the US every year because people want their cheap coal power.

Lots of problems out there.

The whole thing reminds me of Ozzie Zehner's point that peoples mind frame is like the AI from Hal9000 in the movie 2001 a space odyssey movie https://youtu.be/v6uVnyjTb58?t=16m7s where the computer decides to kill the humans on the spaceship to achieve the goal of the mission because they were merely getting in the way.

Yep. By those standards, thousands of people are getting in the way of coal nowadays. We just have to sacrifice them to get cheap power - for the good of the economy, of course. Sorry about your dead child, but he was getting in the way.

No one seems to blink an eyelid at the real world statistics on solar generation and size that prove you need a solar farm that's about 600km2 to replace a single power-station. Even if that solar farm is going to kill tortoises in the USA desert or Koala habitat in Queensland.

If that array kills a hundred tortoises, and allows a coal mine that kills thousands to shut down, we (and the tortoises) are better off.

Or the latest idea of just covering the ocean and wiping out all sea life

I don't like your idea of covering the ocean and wiping out all sea life.

So South Australia's big Tesla battery that could charge hopefully 100 Tesla trucks is still completely unethical.

It's a lot more ethical than coal, where you just toss the problems over the fence and ignore the people it kills.

 

[jimw1960]

Wind power generation capacity in Texas now exceeds that of coal power capacity. Several coal plants are to be closed next year.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/energy/wind-power-capacity-surpassed-coal-texas/

Battery storage for load leveling is still the crux for a bigger portion of energy from renewables, though. My feeling is that if the Nuclear Regulatory Commission eventually grants a license to one or more of the small modular reactor (SMR) designs that they are reviewing, then SMRs, instead of battery storage, paired with wind farms can be a very effective solution.

 

[sendler2112]

The Moltex Stabile Salt Reactor is the most promising design I have found.
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https://youtu.be/-IiIdG0asbM
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[Hillhater]

Cobalt supply..

......The simple and inescapable reality is that even if the battery industry abandons high cobalt LCO chemistry in favor of lower cobalt NCM and NCA chemistries, global cobalt supplies cannot support total worldwide production of more than a few million short-range EVs (under 100 miles) or a couple million long-range EVs (over 200 miles) per year.
In other words, without a battery technology breakthrough or a cobalt production miracle, EVs can never account for more than a few percent of the global car build or make a relevant scale contribution to CO2 emissions reductions. So, the billions of dollars flowing into ill-conceived EV schemes with inadequate supply chains will be incinerated in the next bonfire of the vanities.......

Ref ..J Petersen ..investment analysist/researcher

If true, that represents approx 200GWh of battery storage.
Even if its out by a factor of ten , its still a serious limiting factor

 

[jimw1960]

Cobalt supply..

Ref ..J Petersen ..investment analysist/researcher

If true, that represents approx 200GWh of battery storage.
Even if its out by a factor of ten , its still a serious limiting factor

Petersen is a con artist. He suckered hundreds of people into buying stock in Axion, a maker of lead-carbon batteries, and they all lost their money. Turned out he was selling his own stock at the same time he was convincing others to buy big. Then he rustled up a bunch of investors in a company called E-Power, who tried to build an hybrid class 8 truck that ran on Axion's batteries. Those people all lost their money, too. The past two years he has been pushing this idea of cobalt shortages being the death of electric vehicles. Not sure what his angle is on this, but you can bet there is one.

 

[sendler2112]

Fixed grid storage will be something less dense. Any way you look at it the future will be much simpler as all of our various resources are utilized to depletion.
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Thinking we are going to rely on maintaining 50 Twh of grid storage in batteries and convert all farming and mining and heavy construction machines to batteries is far beyond realistic. Better to set practical goals and focus what we have left to make the transition to a simpler way of life more gentle.

 

[liveforphysics]

You can definitely make cells without any cobalt. It's just tricky to get 3.5Ah 18650s without cobalt, but getting 2.5-3Ah is possible already.

Experts also knew the internet could never happen because the world didn't have enough copper.

 

[billvon]

Petersen is a con artist. He suckered hundreds of people into buying stock in Axion, a maker of lead-carbon batteries, and they all lost their money. Turned out he was selling his own stock at the same time he was convincing others to buy big. Then he rustled up a bunch of investors in a company called E-Power, who tried to build an hybrid class 8 truck that ran on Axion's batteries. Those people all lost their money, too. The past two years he has been pushing this idea of cobalt shortages being the death of electric vehicles. Not sure what his angle is on this, but you can bet there is one.

He's probably pushing lead-carbon again; I've seen a resurgence of them at solar/storage shows.

In any case we have plenty of cobalt for applications where we need it (some types of EV batteries.) Right now the cobalt supply is constrained because, until now, it's been a byproduct of nickel and copper mining; it's effectively a "side effect" of processing those ores. Once new cobalt-specific mines open (and at least two are in the works) that will change. In addition, the ratios of metals within EV batteries will likely change - they will become more nickel heavy and will use far less cobalt.

For stationary storage there are better options anyway, like LiFePO4.

 

[Hillhater]

You can definitely make cells without any cobalt. It's just tricky to get 3.5Ah 18650s without cobalt, but getting 2.5-3Ah is possible already.

Yes, and they are commercially available, but i think its significant that most of the major players in grid storage ....Panasonic, Samsung, LG , Tesla, ..are all running with a cobalt formula ?
I think BYD (with LifePo4) are the only major manufacturer not comitted to Cobalt.
Certainly Petersen has screwed many people....he is an investment advisor ! ..that is what they do , (sometimes accidently, sometimes deliberately )
But that doesnot mean he is always wrong or that his sources are wrong (industry experts) or the other industry professionals who have been quoted previously .....are all wrong.?
His article was not a bait to sucker anyone into a new investment, but to advise readers to be aware of the risks around investing in battery manufacturers such as Tesla based on their own sales pitch's.
Tough,... critising someone for offering informed advice that you are not committed to accept. !

 

[Hillhater]

Wind power generation capacity in Texas now exceeds that of coal power capacity. Several coal plants are to be closed next year.
https://www.texasmonthly.com/energy/wind-power-capacity-surpassed-coal-texas

But from the same linked article....

......But capacity is one thing, electricity generation is another. In the first ten months of 2017, wind generated 17.2 percent of power in the state, and coal 31.9 percent, according to ERCOT.......

....its those tricky little details like "Installed NAMEPLATE Capacity",.... Compare to real generation capacity that always trip people up !
So they just have to double the amount of wind farms to even up the supply capacity.....or as those dumb ass types will do, shut down the coal plants so their numbers look better !
...until they realise they need 100% back up for Wind if they dont want to cause havoc.
EDIT.... Oh, and also bear in mind that Texas "Preferentially". loads wind and solar power when its available , and turns down thermal generators to match capacity.....
.. Which means that the "numbers are rigged" in favour of wind and solar to keep politics happy, such that 17.2% is the maximum that wind could supply, ...
.... Whilst coal, gas, Nuclear, could easily have provided much more power if needed ..and infact as it often did in periods when the wind was low and the sun a no-show !...

 

[Hillhater]

More updates on Teslas Big Battery in Australia..
I dont know if this is still a testing program , or some demand from the grid,...but either way they are certainly going to find the life cycle limits if they continue at this rate !

 

[billvon]

Yes, and they are commercially available, but i think its significant that most of the major players in grid storage ....Panasonic, Samsung, LG , Tesla, ..are all running with a cobalt formula ?

Yep. Right now it's cheap, and the formulation is well known, so why not?

But that doesnot mean he is always wrong or that his sources are wrong (industry experts) or the other industry professionals who have been quoted previously .....are all wrong.?

And a lot of the industry (Glencore, Benchmark Mineral Intelligene) is predicting that cobalt will NOT be in such short supply that it will cripple the industry. So someone's wrong.

 

[sendler2112]

Why does Tesla have almost no solar panels on the roofs at the car plant?
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https://electrek.co/2017/12/21/tesla-factory-drone-flyover-shows-growing-model-3-inventory/
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[Hillhater]

The video is Freemont. It was the Sparks GigaFactory that Tesla anounced would be powered by rooftop solar and a windfarm,......but aparently that has been quietly dropped also.

 

[sendler2112]

Well the point is, If Tesla didn't even put up a decorative attempt of roof top solar between now and when they moved into Fremont a decade ago, with an ongoing 30% federal rebate, plus who knows how much more assistance from the state of Cali., what is wrong?

 

[sendler2112]

Even if this is off by a factor of 5, then what? From 2011
https://visual.ly/community/infographic/environment/stock-check-how-long-will-earths-resources-last
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[Jil]

Another storage solution tested :
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/01/siemens-gamesa-starts-construction-heat-rock-fill-storage-wind-energy/

 

[billvon]

Why does Tesla have almost no solar panels on the roofs at the car plant?

I'd imagine because they are spending 100% of their time, effort and money getting the Model 3 out in quantity.

 

[sendler2112]

Very embarrassing that Tesla still has only a small fraction of it's rooftops covered with solar for a technology that is supposed to pay for itself from a company the uses a huge amount of electricity in a sunny location that also owns a struggling company that makes solar panels.

 

[Punx0r]

"Thebeastie", do you have a reading comprehension problem? Or do you just ignore when someone replies to your posts? It seems you just copy & paste a load of bumpf from some other website, because you posted this a few days ago:

Topaz Solar Farm ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm ) in the desert of the USA. 25km2 sized. 2016 generation: 1,265,805MWh (great year 2016, 2017 looks to be a lot lower)
Average power 144MW = (1,265,805MWhours / 8760_hours_in_a_year)
Average coal or nuclear power station: average output 3927MW = (34,402,000MWh / 8760)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paluel_Nuclear_Power_Plant
3927MW / 144MW = 27 times more power.

25km2 x 27 = 675km2 of land covered in solar panels to generate the same average power (if you have a super huge battery as well, that will require a lot of land and a lot of energy to dispose of once used)

Sorry to come again but please stop using old data for solar energy.
The ratio easily achievable today is 1 MWp/ha for solar fixed tilt, and 0.5 MWp/ha for single-axis trackers (the technology mainly used in countries with high irradiation).
In the first case, with average irradiation you can count on 1500 MWh/MWp/year of energy produced, in the second case (trackers) 2000 MWh/MWp/year. With 99.5% availability. For nuclear and coal plants, it's more around 90%.

So it makes for fixed-tilt 150 GWh/km2/year, and for trackers 100 GWh/km2/year, for average sites (for Nevada with high irradiation it will be more).

If you compare to a nuclear or coal plant of 4000 MW with 90% availability, the equivalent production of 31,500 GWh will require between 200 and 300 km2 of land (and probably 50% less for Nevada). Not 675. By the way what surface of land does require a 4000 MW plant for coal mining ?

As you can see, your claim about land area required for PV was debunked. So, what did you post next?

No one seems to blink an eyelid at the real world statistics on solar generation and size that prove you need a solar farm that's about 600km2 to replace a single power-station.

Yep, just repeated the exact same thing again. It's like anything that doesn't support your existing, denialist beliefs is simply ignored. Or are you just trolling?

 

[Hillhater]

Tesla's Big F*ing Battery in action
http://nem.mwheeler.org/stations#HPRG1
This continues to puzzel me as to what is going on.
Continuous spurts of 30MW in random, frequent ( almost continuous) patterns , wit only short breaks of a few hours to charge again ?
If its testing , its a very odd method,....
If its grid demand initiated, Even more strange ?
Anybody care to suggest possible explanations ?

PS.... Seasons greetings and wishes for a prosperous, healty new year to all you ES followers.
Happy holidays !
H H