Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

billvon said:
sendler2112 said:
Domestic electricity is only a fraction of energy consumption that any household relies on in our current civilization.
Yep. There's also commercial electrical demand, ground transportation energy, fuels for aviation and marine use, heat for industrial processes (aluminum smelting, cement manufacture etc.)
The fact that some people have been able to get by with no wires on their house has no relevance to the discussion of the other 66% of electricity that is for everything else that they rely on for goods, services, infrastructure, ect.
It has relevance to your claim that "no realistic amount of storage can ensure solar or wind will provide a continuous supply." People prove you wrong every day there at the scale of their own homes.
I think you are starting to get it with the content of your first sentence. And a little less with the second. But at least are saying "the scale of their homes" is a start. Which proves nothing other than a few very thrifty homes can change their standard of living to reduce their on sight electrical consumption to the point where they have made enough concessions to get by with no wires.
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billvon said:
Literally true, since for many of them their electrical bill is zero
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The other 2/3 of their electrical consumption, as an average of the members of society to which they are still a part of, is still in place regarding the shared infrastructure of the current civilization. You are twisting words in a painfully vain attempt.
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billvon said:
Or doing passive solar for most of their heating needs.
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Your proposal of heating Chicago, NY, Calgary, Toronto, 100,s of other large cities across Europe and Russia, by solar heat is so far beyond ridiculousness it doesn't even merit any type of fact checking. Ridiculous.
 
speedmd said:
The molding plant I was in ran a cooling tower at near full capacity and heat parts of the building near full time half the year. Owner did not want to invest in a few pipes and valves and save $$$$$. No recovery on a host of processes. Compressors ran full time no matter if we were calling for air or not. No talking sense to them. Industry in general wastes a major share of the energy they draw. It would be good for most of them to start with a fresh look.
When I worked as a lifeguard in NY, I worked at a pool right next to a skating rink. In the mechanical space, massive cooling systems used domestic water to cool the compressor's condenser. Twenty feet away, the pool filter tanks and heaters hummed away.

"Why don't you put a Freon condenser loop in the filter tank for the pool?" I asked the guy in charge of the facility. "You'll save water, power and gas."
"They're two different systems," he explained. "They can't work together."
 
sendler2112 said:
I think you are starting to get it with the content of your first sentence. And a little less with the second. But at least are saying "the scale of their homes" is a start. Which proves nothing other than a few very thrifty homes can change their standard of living to reduce their on sight electrical consumption to the point where they have made enough concessions to get by with no wires.
And which concessions would those be? There are island homes for billionaires with completely independent systems that make zero concessions. There are residential homes whose only concessions are switching from electrical to gas dryers, hot water heater and stoves. (We did this; I can assure you, we are not freezing in the dark.)
The other 2/3 of their electrical consumption, as an average of the members of society to which they are still a part of, is still in place regarding the shared infrastructure of the current civilization. You are twisting words in a painfully vain attempt.
It is unfortunate that you are unable to remember your own words from previous posts.
[qupote]Your proposal of heating Chicago, NY, Calgary, Toronto, 100,s of other large cities across Europe and Russia, by solar heat is so far beyond ridiculousness it doesn't even merit any type of fact checking. Ridiculous.[/quote]
And your claim that passive solar heating can't possibly work in NY is, again, painfully ignorant. Again, there are plenty of cases to prove you dead wrong.

No one will take you seriously if so many of your talking points are based on falsehoods.
 
The only explanation I can see for your point of view is that you seem to have an impression of everyone living off the land in a cabin. 7.5 Billion cabins. Going for 10 Billion.
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The concept of solar heating for millions of people in large high rise cities in Northern climates is totally absurd. It will be very difficult to even transition all of this to electrical heat from a nuclear reactor. But this is inevitable. So we must find a way. Co-heat will also be valuable as is the electricity.
 
billvon said:
Hillhater said:
No realistic amount of storage can ensure solar or wind will provide a continuous supply.
There are thousands of off-grid homes out there that prove that wrong.
Do you understand the meaning of "ensure" ?
How many of those off grid homes have a back up generator ...just in case ?
 
The key words are "off grid homes". The existence of off grid homes doesn't prove anything about a similar technology's ability to replace our immense electrical grid. And then replace all energy.
 
billvon said:
And which concessions would those be? There are island homes for billionaires with completely independent systems that make zero concessions. There are residential homes whose only concessions are switching from electrical to gas dryers, hot water heater and stoves. (We did this; I can assure you, we are not freezing in the dark.).....
Billionaires can afford to spend money, use systems, that no Utility or average person can contemplate. they are not realistic examples,
...Switching to gas may remove electricity requirements, but how is that a move towards a sustainable , renewable , energy supply ?

billvon said:
...And your claim that passive solar heating can't possibly work in NY is, again, painfully ignorant. Again, there are plenty of cases to prove you dead wrong......
..Please dont casually toss in comments as facts without some reference or examples to back it up. And remember we are looking for City scale, working examples..
and once you have figured how to "Passively Solar heat" NY in Winter , could you also let us know how you propose to cool the tower blocks etc without using conventional AC systems in summer ?


billvon said:
.. Who is going to pay for all those nuclear power plants? Even with the massive subsidies, incentives and laws in place now they're not economically competitive. ...
Short memory bill ?....This was shown to be a "falsehood" a page or two back so i wont bother repeating the numbers again. :roll:

billvon said:
.....Literally true, since for many of them their electrical bill is zero.. ...
with this comment you show how you equate a zero bill, or no bill at all,...to having a "No Cost" energy supply.
A fully off grid solar/wind/ personal hydro, etc power supply still has a cost. often very substantial cost.
You may not get a bill every month from a Utility for each kWh used, but you will be paying for it, either in advance, or on finance payments. And, again without redoing the numbers (as previously), you might find those costs are much higher than you like to admit.

remember your own words bill...
billvon said:
....No one will take you seriously if so many of your talking points are based on falsehoods.
 
I think it's actually interesting too see the knee-jerk reactions most people have.
I am all for Gen-IVand MSR, but I am not holding my breath. I am however sleeping soundly knowing that the electrification is incresing, EVs are coming, and renewable generation is as well.

Before you all say that wind/solar can support the grid, then in Denmark we have installed synchronous compensators and closed power-plants.

Our Windpower is "stored" partly in Norway by displaced usage of hydro, so when we have suplus (And holland, and sweden for that matter) norway runs partly on our power, and vice--versa. Its not pumped hydro,but the effect is the same.
Waterlevels in norway: http://vannmagasinfylling.nve.no/
Exchange details: http://driftsdata.statnett.no/Web/map/snpscustom
CO2 leves per country: https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=true&solar=false&page=country&countryCode=DK
Sportprice-day-ahead, and productiondetails in DK, select Danmark: http://www.emd.dk/el/

If you browse you often see Denmark running on +80% wind, and sometimes you see us on 0 - no biggie!

BEfore you all say "ahh, but thats not doable every where, you borrow hydro " - no its not, and yes of course we do - but there is not enough hydro to do that alone, but with wind there is! So horses for courses. You dont need a 100% fix for all situations. Just as we are not running 100% coal, nor nuclear, nor gas, nor gasoline, nor diesel - humans evolve and use the appropriate technology for the task at hand.

The only good thing about the nay-sayers, are that they are getting proven wrong :mrgreen:

Anyone see a comparison to Don Quixote? :roll:
Replace some word below wiht the ones most used in this thread:
Mr. Alonso Quixano who reads so many chivalric romances that he loses his sanity and decides to set out to revive chivalry, undo wrongs, and bring justice to the world, under the name Don Quixote de la Mancha.
 
good points Hanssing,....especially your summary..
Hanssing said:
....So horses for courses. You dont need a 100% fix for all situations. Just as we are not running 100% coal, nor nuclear, nor gas, nor gasoline, nor diesel - humans evolve and use the appropriate technology for the task at hand......
however, without a significant "Dispatchable" source such as hydro, it becomes very difficult to operate high % of renewables ( solar wind etc), yer some of our leaders have adopted a political stance and commitments to 50% and more of solar / wind generation when we have little hydro potential ( no mountains, and rain in the wrong places !)
As i have previously stated, i am not "anti" renewables, ..i am just trying to get some people to understand that 100% is not viable with current technology and costs.
 
We are seeing strong availability cascade in the discussion of a 100% solar pv salvation.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_cascade
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– a self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more
plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or “repeat something long
enough and it will become true”). Which in case you didn't get it is fallacy .
 
Ohbse said:
Hillhater said:
Musk may not realise how "dangerous" some of his ideas are.
..Not physically neccessarily, but he has huge influence, so when he says something people respond and some blindly follow.
..such as the Solar+Storage battery total solution to utility power !
The whole Mars thing seems like a folly, or ego trip of little value, but thousands of people are now involved.
However, there may be some usful "spin offs" , such as the intercontinental transport via low orbit, and cheap satelite launchs.

How fortunate that your lack of vision doesn't have the same dangerous level of influence.

Everything is built on something else. Without incremental advance, we would stagnate. Clearly space is inevitable, either for expansion, exploration or just pushing our understanding of the universe. Musk saw an opportunity, or perhaps even an obligation to further the current state of space travel after years of stagnation. In no small way he jump started the era of private/public partnership in launch technology and has made quite revolutionary advances in cost to orbit, primarily by bringing it back to first principals. There's no inescapable reason that rockets need to be cripplingly expensive. The BFR is the latest iteration, incrementally improving on what came before, perhaps leading to revolutionary change.

Energy is the same. Solar is the fundamental power source of the planet, coal/gas/wood/oil are just manifestations of this. Logically we should harness it as directly as possible. We now have an opportunity to harvest this energy directly and to store that energy for later use. These technologies were built and improved after many years of investment (Grants, subsidies etc) with an ever accelerating pace of improvement. We have now reached a critical inflection point where this harvest method not only makes logical sense, but financial as well. As the use of PV and batteries increases, so does the pace of discovery leading to a rapidly iterating evolutionary process, massively reducing costs while delivering incremental improvements to function over ever shortening time-frames. This process has played out many times in technological disruptions as billvon and others have pointed out, most people were caught unawares, denying the new reality even beyond the point where it was all around them. Oil, roads, electricity etc all were niche novelties until suddenly they weren't.

You can argue the numbers all you like with costings based on irrelevant outdated figures, but the inescapable fact is that the people who decide what makes financial sense in all the profit driven energy companies are opting to deploy PV over most every other option. All of the same arguments apply to EV's for primary transportation, we are seeing the same disruptive change play out right now too.

This has got to be one of the most intelligent and well written posts i have ever read, Nice work Ohbse.
 
sendler2112 said:
We are seeing strong availability cascade in the discussion of a 100% solar pv salvation.
No we're not. We are seeing a strong belief in solar and wind playing an increasing role in electrical generation worldwide - which is supported by the facts (i.e. increasing solar generation and falling prices.)

Solar will never directly provide 100% of our energy, simply because there are places it doesn't make sense at all (Barrow, Alaska for example.) But renewables - solar, wind, hydro etc - will continue to grow and will come to dominate electrical generation worldwide.
 
billvon said:
sendler2112 said:
We are seeing strong availability cascade in the discussion of a 100% solar pv salvation.
No we're not. We are seeing a strong belief in solar and wind playing an increasing role in electrical generation worldwide - which is supported by the facts (i.e. increasing solar generation and falling prices.).....
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So you believe.....
But i notice you do not mention the end result of INCREASING power costs.
Do you not see the significance in the FACTS that countries with a high % conversion to renewables (Australia, Denmark, Germany) have the HIGHEST power prices in the world. ?
 
I have a simmering question, itching in the back of my mind. "Fracking" has lowered the price of gasoline, as did the oil industries' desire to manipulate markets so that they might slow down the adoption of alternatives. The most frequent argument against adopting solar and wind seems to be..."its a false savings, you haven't added up all the costs, it doesn't save as much money as we've been told"...

But...what if the cost of gasoline and electricity doubled? I believe in that instance, there would be widespread anger and outrage that "the government" didn't adopt more alternatives sooner, and more comprehensively.

I don't think I'm going to get in a car wreck when I drive, but...I still wear a seat belt, and I still have insurance.
 
spinningmagnets said:
I have a simmering question, itching in the back of my mind. "Fracking" has lowered the price of gasoline, as did the oil industries' desire to manipulate markets so that they might slow down the adoption of alternatives. The most frequent argument against adopting solar and wind seems to be..."its a false savings, you haven't added up all the costs, it doesn't save as much money as we've been told"...

But...what if the cost of gasoline and electricity doubled? I believe in that instance, there would be widespread anger and outrage that "the government" didn't adopt more alternatives sooner, and more comprehensively.

I don't think I'm going to get in a car wreck when I drive, but...I still wear a seat belt, and I still have insurance.

Is it "manipulation" of the market to reduce the cost of a product by improving production methods or volumes ?
If the cost of Fossil fuels doubles and affected power prices, then yes there would be an outcry....but as you can clearly see, the reality is the opposite with those countries most committed to renewable energy having to suffer the highest power prices in the world.
There should be widespread anger and outrage about the way those governments have forced those changes without a full economic assesment of the consequences...But politics have overridden common sense in nearly all those countries.
Some of those countries are already in an energy "car wreck" (Germany, Australia) but do not have their belts on !
The "insurance" we need is an economical alternative to these current renewable technologies, and at the moment that is still fossil fuels.
 
Hillhater said:
So you believe.....
But i notice you do not mention the end result of INCREASING power costs.
Because here it's not increasing.

2010 average US energy cost (before any significant solar generation) - 9.83 cents/kwhr (11.14 cents/kwhr in 2017 dollars)
2016 average US energy cost (after significant buildout of solar) - 10.28 cents/kwhr

Data from EIA, adjusted via CPI calculator.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=vvvvvvvvvvvvo&endsec=vg&freq=A&start=2001&end=2016&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=9.83&year1=201001&year2=201708

So more solar, cheaper power.
Do you not see the significance in the FACTS that countries with a high % conversion to renewables (Australia, Denmark, Germany) have the HIGHEST power prices in the world. ?
Sounds like they are doing it wrong. There are benefits to being a second adopter.
 
:shock: ..Wow bill, ita a miracle... :eek:
1.1% of solar has reduced your energy cost by 10% !! :lol:
Solar power in the United States ...
. As of the end of 2016, the U.S. had 40 gigawatts (GW) of installed photovoltaic capacity, having almost doubled in capacity from the previous year.[1] In the twelve months through July 2017, utility scale solar power generated 47.5 terawatt-hours (TWh), 1.17% of total U.S. electricity. ....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_States
By the time you get to 10% solar, they will be paying you to use electricity...
You dont maybe suspect that something else might be influencing your power prices...like the price of gas for instance ? :roll:


Do you not see the significance in the FACTS that countries with a high % conversion to renewables (Australia, Denmark, Germany) have the HIGHEST power prices in the world. ?
Sounds like they are doing it wrong. There are benefits to being a second adopter.
Yes there are.
And the lesson is...do not convert a high % of your generation capacity to non dispatchable (base load capeable) generation.
 
Hillhater said:
And the lesson is...do not convert a high % of your generation capacity to non dispatchable (base load capeable) generation.


Futzing around about "costs" of sustainable energy will sound like a pretty thin argument in the face of mass public awareness that their kids asthma and genetic defects and their cancers killing them were results of that cost "bargain" of burning things in the shared closed loop spaceship life support system.

In efforts to share a brief moment of sanity, battery grid scale buffering is already happening, and the race is to see if distributed home solar/battery obsoletes even keeping a grid for non-industrial areas.

Each person is free to fear solar and share reasons why in their personal world reality model its rich with impossible barriers both in cost and location and usage times, meanwhile a handful of folks with vision will continue implementing it before your eyes, and you will remain free to doubt and nay-say even after only using that solar/battery power as the source of energy to share your doubts.
 
liveforphysics said:
...... battery grid scale buffering is already happening, and the race is to see if distributed home solar/battery obsoletes even keeping a grid for non-industrial areas.
....
Buffering is just a way to smooth out a irratic, unpredictable, supply , An expensive necessity.
That better be a big battery !
The biggest home, "non industrial areas" are our cities...you know all those residential blocks, modern high rise, high density, areas where most normal people rent apartments...where do they put their off grid solar systems ?
What do you do after a day or two of no sun ?
...But we still need the grid for industry ?,..powered by what ?
....just trying to be realistic !
 
Hillhater said:
liveforphysics said:
...... battery grid scale buffering is already happening, and the race is to see if distributed home solar/battery obsoletes even keeping a grid for non-industrial areas.
....
Buffering is just a way to smooth out a irratic, unpredictable, supply , An expensive necessity.
That better be a big battery !
The biggest home, "non industrial areas" are our cities...you know all those residential blocks, modern high rise, high density, areas where most normal people rent apartments...where do they put their off grid solar systems ?
What do you do after a day or two of no sun ?
...But we still need the grid for industry ?,..powered by what ?
....just trying to be realistic !


If you're sincere in wanting to be realistic my friend, a start would perhaps be recognizing the implications of a single shared atmosphere as most important and immediate concern, reaching immeasurably beyond concerns of industry or human comfort.

While you're free to disagree, if I put you in a room and turned off the circuit breaker feeding it, or I put you in a room with a poisoned atmosphere, you would quickly discover priority.

I didn't take air pollution seriously for the first few decades of my life, until doing some long distance running in the mountains around Beijing and experienced months of respiratory drama after the first few days of coughing up dark colored particulates.

Theres an old saying about not appreciating the value of a well or water source until the day it runs dry. Already our childrens lungs are scared and genetics damaged and our own generation is cancer tumor packed, this is the forewarning symptoms of the toxification of our singular shared life support system on this closed loop spaceship.

It's like a man who keeps ordering poison and drinking it, because he gets a "bargain price" and is comfortable with the taste and has well developed fears about alternative drink options.
 
You guys are still thinking of the world as single family homes. Many people live in large cities with population densities of 10,000 people / km^2 and more.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population_density
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Cities need a stable grid. You can't make that many batteries to supply 3TW for 18 hours to cover even 1 night of current consumption. It would take hundreds of years. Do we have enough raw materials? The batteries we can make will be more valuable in transportation and farm and mining machines as we eliminate liquid fuels.
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We need something non-intermittent to power our cities and industry. And charge up our transportation. And keep our giant cities above freezing on winter nights.
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many of the people I read are pragmatically trying to lead us to make wise decisions about our energy future before fossil fuel runs out. Which we will need to build it's replacement. They say the same thing. "Solar and wind plus storage could power a human civilization. Just not this one. Perhaps 1/4 the size." We need something else to bridge the gap for the next 1,000 years while we slowly mature as a species to come to grips with our exceding the carrying capacity problem.
 
liveforphysics said:
If you're sincere in wanting to be realistic my friend, a start would perhaps be recognizing the implications of a single shared atmosphere as most important and immediate concern, reaching immeasurably beyond concerns of industry or human comfort.
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Luke,.. i respect your vision and commitment.
...but just be prepared to be disappointed !
 
sendler2112 said:
We need something non-intermittent to power our cities and industry. And charge up our transportation. And keep our giant cities above freezing on winter nights.


Contrary to popular belief, the sun doesn't shine intermittently on earth, it serves sunlight to our spaceship 24-7, just to half of it at a time. Fortunately doesn't matter at all in a modern solar/battery system, which will continue to ramp down in price towards nothing as solar power is used to make solar cells and storage batteries from increasingly lower cost to harvest raw materials (inevitably will be autonomous EV's doing all mining and transport in the next few years.) It's optional to gain awareness that when energy density and power density don't matter (like stationary grid storage), batteries require no rare or advanced materials.

Intermittent energy sources would be anything that involves digging up and burning something, as it either ends when you run out or die from self-poisoning.

A single year of just the USA military budget is ~$600,000,000 to $824,000,000 depending on who's number you want to use. The worlds installed solar capacity today is 303,000,000 Watts. Just half of what the USA alone dedicates to harm-causing in a year can double the worlds total installed solar capacity. We have not yet seen what kind of sustainable energy humanity can create, because so many folks share the ensured-self-extinction mindset seen in many of posts in this thread, vs already living the change.

When enough oil company execs and politicians are personally gasping for their last breaths of fouled air, they may question the value of some numbers in some banking server network vs a survivable spaceship atmosphere. Each being has the opportunity to make sustainable life decisions for themselves alone.
 
Hillhater said:
liveforphysics said:
If you're sincere in wanting to be realistic my friend, a start would perhaps be recognizing the implications of a single shared atmosphere as most important and immediate concern, reaching immeasurably beyond concerns of industry or human comfort.
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Luke,.. i respect your vision and commitment.
...but just be prepared to be disappointed !

I could only be disappointed in myself if I gave up trying.

We each remain free to live the example, join me in appreciating the shared life support system my friend.
 
Let's say we stop polluting from fossil fuel's and more and more solar farms appear then an issue with agriculture will arise there''s a land balance that needs to be met and no matter how philosophical one gets we must keep our minds planted within reality.
Take us out of the equation and the earth will still fluctuate wildly over time release gases and go through mass extinctions so while we like to think we can control a stable environment on this rock that's near impossible we did not store all the methane in the Pete bogs of the artic and as it thaws be it from us or a natural cycle it's going to get alot warmer, wilder unimaginable storms with more energy than ever in the oceans and atmosphere , Methanes warming effect is 50 times worse that co2 so I'm afraid that there is no pressing the brakes as we think, earth has been tipped and she will cycle herself and we best learn to hold on to a bumpy ride.
A solar farm is very vulnerable to unpredictable weather in the terms of destruction so is a windfarm but producing radioactive waste by the ton or releasing 26 gigaton of co2 per year also is not the way forward.
What is the answer one things for sure we can not work it out on this thread, I see fusion as a long term answer but we also need to work out the shirt term a way of stopping our frozen Pete bogs being destroyed releasing methane and stop cutting down the forests making them emit more co2 from rotting foliage on the ground than the surrounding area can capture so when we chop them down not only do we stop the absorstion of carbon the area can emiy just as much carbon as a busy city due to all the rotting leaf matter so we could also clean up our act and make a big difference outside of energy creation and use biproducts in a more efficenct fashion.
 
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