Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Hillhater said:
But i notice you do not mention the end result of INCREASING power costs.
Do you not see the significance in the FACTS that countries with a high % conversion to renewables (Australia, Denmark, Germany) have the HIGHEST power prices in the world. ?

Let me clarify as a Dane - we actually have low power-prices in spot-spice cost of electricity!
But we then have the higest taxes on top of this:
Normally the power-price is around 0,25d.kr. per kWh = 0.04 $/kWh for all generation in the market.
A Danish company pays roughly 0.12 $/kWh including taxes and distribution.
A Danish private citizen pays 2.5times that 0.39$/kWh incl. tax, vat, PCT for renewables etc.

Its only a very low cost that can actually be attributed directly to the high penetration of renewables (0.015$/kWh), and out cost were the same even before.
This cost is only carried through the private citizens, as companies goes free. The cost of HVDC links are financed through the link it self, if gets the pricedifference between regions as upkeep - so they are "free". Thats why we are making cobra-link to holland, and Norway is connecting to UK.

So in out region it's "ok" and not expensive. Due to freely available backup the true cost of wind and PV is competitive with spot-market prices, and has now come down even on offshore wind, that the get *no* financing support at all. We have now seen large windfarm tenders with zero backing.

In DK, Sweden and Norway new Nuclear will never be able to compete on the kWh/cost unless a miracle happens, and due to hydro reserves for net-stability not even on net-system fuctions either. The prices are going down, bakc cost is known, and Nuclear prices are going up.

Germany however is a somewhat different story - they have too weak an electric infrastructure to effektively transport electricity north/south, and why they are closing running nuclear plants only the Kansler knows. To most bystanders it seems a rash decision. When the wind really blows in the North, GER cannot use it because of bottelnecks, so it gets pushed through Denmark to Norway as well. Meaning negative spot-prices, and then DK windfarms gets taken offline. GER are remedying the situation as well as a move for electrified district heating (which runs on coal) using surplus power is being considered.

PS: Denamrk also have the higest tax on cars (180% + VAT), and on normal income (50%-60%), along with 25% VAT...... Yay! So in general we have the higest prices becaused we are taxed right into hell. Apparently we are the most happy contry - which seems insane!
 
Hanssing said:
Let me clarify as a Dane - we actually have low power-prices in spot-spice cost of electricity!
But we then have the higest taxes on top of this:
Normally the power-price is around 0,25d.kr. per kWh = 0.04 $/kWh for all generation in the market.
A Danish company pays roughly 0.12 $/kWh including taxes and distribution.
A Danish private citizen pays 2.5times that 0.39$/kWh incl. tax, vat, PCT for renewables etc.

Its only a very low cost that can actually be attributed directly to the high penetration of renewables (0.015$/kWh), !
Yes, its similar the world over.....the actual cost is low, its the tax ( and subsidies ) that kills us.
But one comment for Denmark though....
...my understanding is that a large proportion (DKK 5.0bn pa), of the tax on electricity is paid directly back to the generators of renewable power. Hence the deployment of renewables has directly added to the consumer cost.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark
 
When it comes to Hydropower it's a no-brainer and a complete waste of time and space talking about it in this thread because its always built where it can be. Since the 18th century its been a major source of power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectricity#History
It always has and always will be a no-brainer.

Supplying power to these tiny euro populations like Denmark is easy especially when you can just buy electricity from another country when ever you need.
The reason why large nuclear power plants sit on the border of France is because they can sell electricity to all their country-neighbours so they can claim like Germany they rely on high amounts of renewables https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cattenom_Nuclear_Power_Plant

The entire-country-population of Denmark is the same population of a single city in Australia like Sydney both of 5million people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark#Demographics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney
So many of these euro nations are like this, its so easy to do things like have high minimum wages etc with tiny populations. Same thing with Norway and its 5million people sitting on a $1trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund based on oil resources.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway#Demographics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_Norway

As discussed earlier the reason why South Australia etc don't build hydro is because they have no spare water or mountains to build a dam and thus are willing to spend a billion dollars to get 1% of the same power of a medium-small sized coal power-station purely via the sun because its quite literally their only choice for true renewable power on demand, if they could build hydropower they would, it just can't be stressed enough.
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=89002&start=200#p1312409
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=89002&start=250#p1315752
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=89002&start=225#p1314630
South Australia water is famous for being considered undrinkable to most fussy people https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/ShowTopic-g255093-i698-k1585404-Tap_water_quality-Adelaide_Greater_Adelaide_South_Australia.html

Almost all of SAs water comes from a single river and that water is constantly furiously fought for. https://www.sawater.com.au/__data/assets/image/0008/171647/WaterSources_v2.jpg

Also windfarms are Denmarks biggest export, thats the reason they ran and hosted Copenhagen, to sell wind-turbines, everyone should know that. Its basically their bread and butter export and you can be sure they are going to pimp and make up the good looking sides to it all.
For me its just the same old storey, some of the guys who argue the viability of this stuff have admitted they are in the renewables energy industry so its impossible for them to see another point of view. And for the other half the whole argument gives near unlimited politcal power. We don't have to even step outside ES forums to see that most of us are political nutjobs.
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=71258
3393a4f2d14f1bd4a356920fa067592dea69d6de1be56da308128a8d80fdd362.gif


South Australia do the same thing when it comes to electricity they get a constant 850MW from the two interstate grid power-lines (one called Heywood interconnector) from Victorian coal power-stations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_South_Australian_blackout#Power_grid
There used to be a dedicated Wikipedia page on the Heywood interconnector 650MW power-line that goes from Victoria to SA but its been dubiously deleted from Wikipedia. I can only assume because of its an embarrassing fact that South Australia gets so much of its power via coal from another state.
 
We need 50TWh to store 18 hours of current electrical consumption and even then there will be days long blackouts in in northern cities in the winter and people in big cities will freeze to death. So 18 hours is totally inadequate but we will just start the discussion there.
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Now double that every 35 years for the minimal 2% growth our economy barely survives on to prevent a permanent depression and social crash until we can convince rich people it is better to share than cause war.
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That makes it 12TW continous electrical consumption 70 years from now. Assuming we haven't yet made any changes to fossil fuel consumption for heat, transportation, industry.
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200 TWh are neeed to to cover 18 hours of electrical storage 70 years from now.
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It takes 80 GigaFactories 70 years to make this much storage. And the service life of a battery is how long? 20 years? This is all assuming they last forever.
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Just for electrical. The other 2/3 of energy will still be coming from fossil fuels even though it is destroying the planet because we are already caught in a Socio/ energy trap.
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We better hope that we can completely reshape the entire economic system to run on negative growth by then and convince couples worldwide to average 1.8 children because by 150 years from now the crude oil will be essentially gone and we will have had to transition most of the other 2/3 of consumption to electric long before then due to rising costs.
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So 80 GigaFactories running at full capacity cranking out batteries right now and 160 more within 70 years would be needed at the minimum.
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We have effectively 1.5 GigaFactories actually running right now.
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Solar and wind plus storage is not dense enough, soon enough.
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Wake up people. We owe it to them to make wise and pragmatic decisions now. Before they are left out in the cold.
 
Hillhater said:
...my understanding is that a large proportion (DKK 5.0bn pa), of the tax on electricity is paid directly back to the generators of renewable power. Hence the deployment of renewables has directly added to the consumer cost.

Damn, now you made me factcheck my own numbers! :oops:
MY bad, i remembered it as being 0.08dkr the PSO ie. public service obligation which covers teh renewable support, and hookup to the grid is actually 0.24 dkr/kWh currently (it vaires with the wind). This is app. 0.037 $/kWh or. app. 8-10% of end user price, for private consuers only. All points still valid, and the rest of the prices also.

The analyses that have been done, does not show a large price-increase, had the renewables not been installed, and thermal plant/nuclear plants had been commisioned instead. And the total economic picture for the nation is very much "net positive", but thats owing to the many jobs in the sector (Siemens Windpower and Vestas are both Danish originally), and that we dont have to buy coal form others.

So if we consider, that less than half electricity is used by private consumers, we then get that half of the average sport-price has an added cost so its 0.4 - 0.50 d.kr/kWh, but only on half of the usage, so on average with the added cost is more like 0,35-0,4 dkr.
For reference Hinkly Point C was at 0.81 d.kr/kWh back in 2012, its increased since then....
However, french Nuclear power is at 0.33 kr/kWh. But Norwegian spot-price=hydro is only 0.19 kr/kWh.

And the PSO is getting reduced, given that projects becomes viable with zero PSO added.

Coal or Wind? - i'll take wind, and I'll pay the cost outlined.
Wind or Nuclea? Mjaaeee, I wont pay HPC-prices, and if the difference is 0.33 to 0.4, I would personally prefer Wind given that its falling still.

Now the insane part is out politician, they license a PSO minimumprice of 1.05kr/kWh for Anholdt Windpark - instead of just cancelling it. So the tender-winner is grinning :roll: And that was fairly recent..... But the latest had Zero :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anholt_Offshore_Wind_Farm
 
It very hard to establish the true cost of power generation from any particular technology or source.
Published project data is unreliable, often biased for one reason or other (politics ?, commercial ?)
Every project will have its own specific variables. and different organisations use different methods of analysis.
But that us$0.17 /kWh for the offshore wind project is very close to the eia.gov data ( the most reliable source of LCOE costs i have found ). which puts offshore wind at us$0.16 /kWh.
I really do not understand how Denmark could have an average generation cost of us$0.04/kW when you have such a high proportion of Offshore wind and thermal generation (much of it heavily underutilised !).
Whatever the true figures, the simple fact remains that Denmark has a very high proportion of Wind generation, and (coincidentally ?). One of the highest consumer cost for electricity.
That cost may be presented as "Tax", but much of it is recycled directly to the renewable energy suppliers.
For us in Australia it is similar, except the cost is more hidden in a "RET" scheme (basicly a financial trading scheme for clean energy certificates) which all happens behind the public "cost wall".
Utility power is no more than a fuel sales business like any other..petrol, firewood, etc. its retail pricing is purely market driven, with the primary objective to make a profit for the share holders of the generating companies.
 
I've not mentioned the climate, which I agree shows evidence of massive swings happening naturally.

If every car starting near you required the fellow inside to get out and ask permission to inject you with toxins that offer cancer and genetic defects for your children, and you consented to each injection, you would evaluate the poisoning differently. Realize inhalation of various benzene containing vapors in every car starting event adds them to the blood of the living things around the event.

It's a false economy of a man drinking a delicious poison he has available on every corner for a bargain price.

Ianhill said:
Let's say we stop polluting from fossil fuel's and more and more solar farms appear then an issue with agriculture will arise there''s a land balance that needs to be met and no matter how philosophical one gets we must keep our minds planted within reality.
Take us out of the equation and the earth will still fluctuate wildly over time release gases and go through mass extinctions so while we like to think we can control a stable environment on this rock that's near impossible we did not store all the methane in the Pete bogs of the artic and as it thaws be it from us or a natural cycle it's going to get alot warmer, wilder unimaginable storms with more energy than ever in the oceans and atmosphere , Methanes warming effect is 50 times worse that co2 so I'm afraid that there is no pressing the brakes as we think, earth has been tipped and she will cycle herself and we best learn to hold on to a bumpy ride.
A solar farm is very vulnerable to unpredictable weather in the terms of destruction so is a windfarm but producing radioactive waste by the ton or releasing 26 gigaton of co2 per year also is not the way forward.
What is the answer one things for sure we can not work it out on this thread, I see fusion as a long term answer but we also need to work out the shirt term a way of stopping our frozen Pete bogs being destroyed releasing methane and stop cutting down the forests making them emit more co2 from rotting foliage on the ground than the surrounding area can capture so when we chop them down not only do we stop the absorstion of carbon the area can emiy just as much carbon as a busy city due to all the rotting leaf matter so we could also clean up our act and make a big difference outside of energy creation and use biproducts in a more efficenct fashion.
 
I totally agree about the toxins, before industry had to watch their pollutants a local steel works would smell of nothing but eggs when I done work on the smelter the only thing I could taste for days was eggs, An old tin works had poisoned the grass all over the mountains that took well over 100 years to recover and there's still many mountains of spoil slag waste from coal littering the place so being from a heavy industry area there's many a scar to be seen.
But where I differ is solar used alone it's not viable to have 6 hours of light 1 hour peak power to then power a nation that's why we have used our local asset Mr wind and he does blow very often but even with the massive adoption the UK has placed on renewables we barely manage to get over 20% grid supply at best a day with no coal is a good day indeed.

On a another note I've heard of a new clean coal power plant with the chimney upside down fill a depleted well with co2 and that's a disaster waiting to happen and the problem is its already happening same for nuclear waste since its creation there's over 1million tons of radioactive waste been produced that's just crazy and not a long term future energy source. I've heard people say send it on a rocket to the sun lmao if that rocket failed in upper atmosphere the results i would rather not imagine.
 
The photo period is as irrelevant as the horse lovers arguments about how they know motor cars can never replace animals for filling transportation needs.

The reality is, way more than enough sun is hitting the earth.
 
Hillhater said:
And the lesson is...do not convert a high % of your generation capacity to non dispatchable (base load capeable) generation.
Yep. And there were people who protested against the first cars because they were so dangerous. The lesson they took from the first fatal car accidents? Do not trust your life to a deadly, unproven contraption rather than your trusted steed. Cars will never be safe enough for humans to use.

They, of course, were dead wrong too.

You can go on and on about all the horrors of solar power. You can argue that it's not happening, or that it's not cheap, or that no one is smart enough to figure out how to tap an unreliable resource. But it will continue to grow - and your children (and theirs) will be better off for it.
 
There is certainly enough sun to power all our needs, the problem is capturing that energy for us to use in a practical and economical way.
Currently we just do not have enough physical resources, materials, or financial ability to replace our power generation with solar or wind let alone the storage needed to support them.
One small example.
I pulled this chart from Wiki to illusreate one of the logistic issues to be delt with...the seasonal variation in solar generation .

Notice the huge reduction in generation during the winter....(~50% ?)
So whilst even the most optomistic solar proponent onle rates the Capacity Factor at 25%, that is based on the average annual output compared to "Nameplate" capacity.......whereas, if you had to rely on solar, you would havr to size the solar to supply your demand during that winter period.
IE.. For every 1MW outputyou need, you have to install 8 MW of rated capacity.
Note. I cannot concieve any possible storage option to smooth out these seasonal variations
When you see those headlines about another 400MW solar farm being built, remind yourself, that in winter it is only going to be able to supply the equivalent of a 50Mw thermal plant.
Then ask how you can balance that much variation in supply capacity on a grid scale, without using thermal generation.
 
Hillhater said:
I really do not understand how Denmark could have an average generation cost of us$0.04/kW when you have such a high proportion of Offshore wind and thermal generation (much of it heavily underutilised !).
Thats easy - it's because of renewables. A lot of the renewables can sell with profit down to 0.001$/kWh in sportprice since the PSO gives them a fixed minimumprice.
The thinking back in the beginning of offshore wind, was that this reduces the risk enough that suppliers would bid on the tenders. And they did, and we got large offshore farm to complement the makredly cheaper on-shore wind.

Its the method good - no. But it does achieve prioritization ofr renewables in an "open" market http://www.nordpoolspot.com/

In essence this means the prices drops below what coal/gas/nuclear can sustain, and they close down their production. Its therefor acts as a way to keep the renewables runnning prioritized in a sport-prices market against normal thermal generation-forms. The hidden cost is then the spinning reserves (idling thermal plants), but they are getting replaced with synchronous compensators, and other balancing bidders.

To do a fair analysis of the price-effect, we should look at end-user cost with taxation removed, and then compare the cost of the grid itself per capita.

In Denmark, a large part of the electricity bill is a CO2-tax which is applied completely decouplped form the amount of CO2 generated for electricity. Is a known fact that this simply a tax for the goverment, that they cannot make budgets meet without - and its only applied to private citizens....... Given that electricity is more or less constant per person, ie. it doens scale with income, its just a tax, and a way to direct towards low energy usage for the masses.
The latest idea is to removed the dict cost of PSO and finance this over income-tax, in order to lower kwh-prices and increase domestic usage of electricity.
Ie. a stop-gap because the taxation have reach the limit and is now counter-productive.

The thing to take home is that the end user cost of electricity doesn't simply scale with cost of generation, for the highly income-taxed countires, where Denmark is world leading (sigh), there you also see high prices wiht or without renewables. The pricing is completely artificial for end-users.
Especially notice the discrepancy betweeen industry and private household here for instance for Denmark:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_price_statistics

That being said, a part of our high prices are renewables, for sure. It's political prestige projects, and "subsidaries" for the windmill industry.
 
Hanssing said:
Hillhater said:
I really do not understand how Denmark could have an average generation cost of us$0.04/kW when you have such a high proportion of Offshore wind and thermal generation (much of it heavily underutilised !).
Thats easy - it's because of renewables. A lot of the renewables can sell with profit down to 0.001$/kWh in sportprice since the PSO gives them a fixed minimumprice.
The thinking back in the beginning of offshore wind, was that this reduces the risk enough that suppliers would bid on the tenders. And they did, and we got large offshore farm to complement the makredly cheaper on-shore wind. .....
Yes, but as i said , establishing actual costs is near impossible..
None of those figures relates to the actual "cost" of generation (LCOE).....its all " commercial/contract pricing".
There is simply no way an offshore wind turbine can produce power at a cost near to even gas co-gen that Denmark has a lot of i believe.
If you look back through this thread, several cost analysis exercises have shown that the hyped low cost of renewables is a false statement ( except for some Geothermal projects). Even before you address some of the additional issues such as storeage and continuity of supply.
The real costs are hidden , but consumers end up paying them anyway under the guise of tax and subsidies.
 
Hillhater said:
Yes, but as i said , establishing actual costs is near impossible..
None of those figures relates to the actual "cost" of generation (LCOE).....its all " commercial/contract pricing".
There is simply no way an offshore wind turbine can produce power at a cost near to even gas co-gen that Denmark has a lot of i believe.
I don't agree. If you are looking *only* at upfront monetary cost, then you are right, but just barely, and soon you wont be.

And the true cost, has to include everything: Ie associated cost held by for instance discharge of CO2, ash, reduction in amount of coal avaiable, etc. Ie. the total picture for the globe, but also power quality, standby cost, grid stability.
The only technology that could grow with reduced cost whilst scaling, besides renewables, is nuclear, due to no hidden cost except decommision and waste-storage - and its cost is rising: Nuclear is just not panning out for now.
Coal and gas cost is not going to receede in the medium ot long term, and they are indirectly heavily subsidized when looking at the global cost picture, but we cannot really quantify how much - because who can put a price on global warning and pollution?

If you look back through this thread, several cost analysis exercises have shown that the hyped low cost of renewables is a false statement ( except for some Geothermal projects).
I don't think we are reading the same thread :D And I'm not trying to be fact-resistant :D
In some parts of the world your statement may be true, but new windmill-projects are now directly competeting against coal/gas in DK, with backup not being coal/gas - ie. coal gas are no longer the be all end all. Its not going to be 100% all of the time, but for sure coal/gas generation is going down. Because its not the most competitive form any more - and again thats only looking at direct generation cost over plant lifetime.

Please take into account that renewable generation is here to stay, meaning that the buisnessmodel for thermal plants, now and forever have changed - its no longer constant baseload - and this fact this actually increases cost, but when competing on a market *without* subsidaries that's fair - and we are rapidly closing in on that point in scandinavia.
I like windmills as an engineer - but I like MSRE/GEN-IV even more. IF MSRE/Thorium works as promised, fine. We'll let the windmills wear out and decommision them - but right now it's not happening. And as I said before renewables are winning over coal/gas electricity generation without subsidaries in current tenders.
 
You know a lot about wind turbines. I am interested also since in NY, USA we have good wind at the Eastern shore of Lake Ontario. And poor sun. But the reports I read are that the wind projects that we do have on the Tug Hill platue are predicated at 30% of the capacity factor and are further derated to 10% of "usefullness" to the grid because the intermittency is actually a liability to grid stability. How does your country stabilize such a high percentage of wind energy. Do the turbines themselves have all of the control devices built in? or are there external devices that regulate the voltage and frequency?
 
Hanssing, yes i agree , renewables are going to play apart in energy supply, but they can not currently be the main source of supply due to their lack of reliability (intermittent) and overall cost of generation.
But i also understand even your own government is rethinking the energy transition...
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Editor: Jørn Mikkelsen (chief), Pierre Collignon and Steen Rosenbak; CEO: Stig Kirk Ørskov
26 April 2016
Ever since the first small wind turbines began supplying electricity to the grid in Denmark, the Danes again and again were told that the industry for only a few years needed financial support — then wind turbines with the usual depreciation rules would be able to compete in equal footing with other electricity-generating energy.
It is now four decades ago that the so-called “wind turbine adventure” began and Danish consumers pay today more than ever in direct and indirect financial support to wind turbines. Not only that: according to Eurostat, Danish consumers pay (by) far the highest electricity prices in Europe: 2.28 krone (45c) per kilowatt hour compared with an EU average of 1.55 krone.
This reality saw the Minister for Climate and Energy, Lars Christian Lilleholt, note that the bill for the so-called “green transition” is rampant. This applies to the aid which will be needed for … proposed and strongly disputed coastal wind turbines.
New calculations show that public subsidies paid by electricity consumers via the so-called Public Service Order tax will skyrocket if you follow plans to establish a large number of up to 200m high wind turbines in coastal areas.
Today, Danish consumers pay 25 ore/kWh (about 10c) in the PSO levy or a third more than the spot price of 1 kWh of electricity.
In the period from 2012 to 2020, Danish consumers are at risk of having to pay 65 billion krone in the PSO levy, according to a memo from the Climate and Energy Ministry, and the responsible minister quite wisely finds this unacceptable.
....
 
For information, its not 0.25 latest figures show a year average PSO for 2017 of 0.154 kr/kWh (0.024 $/kWh) thats 7% increase in price with the benefit of reduced fossil use, green jobs in the sector, knowledge, improved national balance (no coal bought form the outside), etc..
If we can agree on those things as benefits?
And again the buisnesses are not affected they have very low costs by european standards.
The article is actually dated, but PSO is getting reduced for new tenders, and we have seen zero as minimum price! But current agreements of course still stands, ofr the time they are supposed to run.
Code:
Øre/kWh   Q1    Q2     Q3    Q4 2017
PSO-tarif 17,3  14,4  12,9 16,9

The world doens stop with 6.6% cost increase... The sky isnt falling... And the overall picture is net positive, for us, our neighbors, and our children.
 
sendler2112 said:
You know a lot about wind turbines. I am interested also since in NY, USA we have good wind at the Eastern shore of Lake Ontario. And poor sun. But the reports I read are that the wind projects that we do have on the Tug Hill platue are predicated at 30% of the capacity factor and are further derated to 10% of "usefullness" to the grid because the intermittency is actually a liability to grid stability. How does your country stabilize such a high percentage of wind energy. Do the turbines themselves have all of the control devices built in? or are there external devices that regulate the voltage and frequency?

Even though I think offshore large windmills is an expensive method, and that shorebased is cheaper and therefor better then NIMBY is strong.
The good thing about the offshore giants are their capacityfactors, in the northsea they are running at 45-50% with the newer larger turbines representing the best numbers.
But it *is* site dependant, and in this regard larger turbines are better, because its blows more stadily the higher you go.

However a large and important part is the grid-connection and the qualification the turbines meet. All newer modern turbines-farm has to provide ride-through, active power control, frequency-control, voltage control, etc. Some actually also provide black-start capability. This sums up to the fact that it is possible to run "solely" on windpower whilst is blowing - as the national results in DK shows.
One key factor is synchronous compensators, to provide a what spinning reserves did previously. This means that thermal plants can be shut down completely in high wind conditions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Static_VAR_compensator

The point is that in ye olden days windmills reduced the grid stability - today the actively help maintain it (while the wind is blowing that is). Its no longer valid to say you cant have high grid coverage using wind. You can, but too high you will get curtailment, and you will allways need backup/storage. And the cost for the grid therefor rises somewhat with the amount of grid-power you want deployed. Very little and you get reduction in fuel at no other cost. Too much and you get suboptimal conditions, and high costs.

The latter fact is what Hillhater is focusing on, and he is partly right, but there are technologies that remedies this somewhat. 100% all the time is *very* expensive. However 100% wind some of the time is "easy" and cost app. 7% as the national grid in DK has shown. Our national experiment is continuing, we will se what the future brings.
 
Onshore 80 meter wind at the eastern shore of Lakes Ontario and Erie is 6 m/s.
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https://windexchange.energy.gov/maps-data/319
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80m_wind_map.jpg

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Off shore in the lakes it's 8m/s and off NYC it's 9.
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https://windexchange.energy.gov/maps-data/320
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offshore_wind_map_90m.jpg

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we have abundant wind all across the midwest and T.Boone Pickens was willing to develope it with his assets but was stymied when no government or utility would even pay for the wires to connect it to the grid. So it mostly sits there untapped. Labeled as too expensive. But at some point there has to be a new way to do the best thing that is needed with cost as a secondary concern.
 
Hanssing said:
For information, its not 0.25 latest figures show a year average PSO for 2017 of 0.154 kr/kWh (0.024 $/kWh) thats 7% increase in price with the benefit of reduced fossil use, green jobs in the sector, knowledge, improved national balance (no coal bought form the outside), etc..
If we can agree on those things as benefits?....
The PSO may have decreased, but dit the cost of power decrease in proportion ?
Governments are good at changing the numbers, but keeping the costs the same.!
Obviously there are benefits, but also some new problems to deal with ....like what you do when the wind drops ?
..For Denmark , that problem is disguised since you have interconnectors to other countries with more stable power supplies who can help smooth the holes in the wind..and also Denmark itself still has a large overcapacity in thermal generation which can to some extent cover that situation also....untill it is decommissioned !

....The world doens stop with 6.6% cost increase... The sky isnt falling... And the overall picture is net positive, for us, our neighbors, and our children.
Again , that is not the full cost of Denmarks renewable energy...there is a reason that electricity has a very high "tax" applied to it.
Do you see a trend in this..


And this shows how renewables have doubled the basic "energy provision" cost in Germany, and various other taxs etc , add to the costs..(i couldnt find a similar breakdown for Denmark, but it does indicate how costs are disguised as taxs.)
 
toolman2 said:
This has got to be one of the most intelligent and well written posts i have ever read, Nice work Ohbse.

Thanks toolman, glad somebody reads them.

Hanssing - thank you very much for your input, it's fascinating to hear about the Danish 'experiment'.

New Zealands generation is currently about 80% renewable by GWh consumed, with about 57% coming from Hydro, the rest being geothermal, wind and a tiny amount of solar. Despite this we are ripe for disruption of the ~20% that's still produced by largely gas and a little coal. The only reason this hasn't already happened is the current government who have specifically emphasised grid stability as well as considerable indirect subsidies for our limited petrochemical industry. In the past we have had years where hydro lake levels approached critically low levels, as a result there's lots of fear of losing our 'backup'. Similarly to Denmark/Europe, the highly peaky intermittant nature of PV would help this a great deal as large PV peaks during the day would just offset day time water flow, thus reducing overall pressure on lake water levels over time.

Obviously this is much more difficult in countries without the benefit of significant hydro resources, but it's clearly possible to be running on 100% renewables today. NZ will get there by default by economic forces alone within a decade, significantly sooner if the true cost of thermal generation was captured at production.

Oh, another interesting bit of info - population of NZ has grown by 10.5% over the past 10 years, however electrical consumption has risen only 6%. We're seeing an increased focus on efficiency, both in residential and in commercial settings. The often repeated myth on this thread that energy demand is going to double like clockwork every 30 years is of course untrue in many situations. It may have been true in the past, but such growth curves aren't sustainable. How about we build for what's required, when it's required. What's required *now* is energy that doesn't gas/drown/cook the next generation, unfortunately that is most certainly not Nuclear/coal/gas.
 
New Zealand is probably unique and certainly fortunate with respect to energy...
With a low demand, (relative to world scale), and good availability of, and access to ,most of the natural energy resources, including Hydro, Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal, as well as fossil fuels.
But other than for private or domestic installations, a wouldnt see more solar as being the optimum choice for reenforcing supply , when there are plentiful reserves of Geothermal still untapped and accessible. It would be a much more stable, reliable, and lower cost option than solar or wind. An ideal match for conserving Hydro resources as a peaking / smothing supply.
 
Ohbse said:
New Zealands generation is currently about 80% renewable by GWh consumed, with about 57% coming from Hydro, the rest being geothermal, wind and a tiny amount of solar. Despite this we are ripe for disruption of the ~20% that's still produced by largely gas and a little coal.
According to Wikipedia, quote "Approximately 80% of electricity comes from renewable energy, primarily hydropower and geothermal power."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectric_power_in_New_Zealand#Generation
A tiny percentage comes from wind, so much of its power comes from hydroelectric due to its spectacular mountains as shown off as the core scenery shooting sites in the Lord of the Rings movies.

NZ has got most of its electricity from Hydro for over 100 years, and like I said before its a no-brainer, not worth talking about if you have the option you do it https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=89002&p=1325526#p1325526

Unfortunately for Australia media groups and political groups like the ABC (maybe they should be called the Australian Brainwashing Corporation) have taken full advantage of NZs huge use of Hydro to manipulate Aussie folks.
Often during upcoming elections, the Australian public gets pounded with this videos of NZ 90% renewables claims and purely with pictures of windfarms, absolutely ZERO pictures of Hydro or geothermal electricity.
Scientists and academics then come on TV and parrot this point of view that NZ is purely powered by windfarms.

This is the reason why I want to see all main-stream TV media be forced to be on the internet only because folks will at least have a chance to look at real-world information themselves instead of being plugged into "The Matrix" type situation where they just get injected with misleading garbage and never have the chance to think for themselves, another "fact" would always be a click away. It will also help save whats left of our news papers and help them transition into the digital world in a better and fairer fashion.
If the TV spectrum in Australia was amalgamated into the NBN wireless division then Australia would be a much saner place. The TV spectrum is given to the TV stations for free and they just abuse it, its also the best spectrum for high-speed reliable data transfer. Currently, all rural areas often chop down the trees around their house to get NBN wireless because the spectrum they use can't penetrate trees.
This is the speed I get on my mobile phone now, its is partially due to the fact that when digital TV came in and replaced analog there was some TV spectrum left over due to the spectrum restack and it was auction off to the major mobile phone carriers, this is the result 230mbits/sec inside my house, another dirty fact main-stream media wont tell you.
http://www.speedtest.net/my-result/a/3259935402
https://www.communications.gov.au/what-we-do/spectrum/digital-dividend-spectrum

This is the typical view Australians have of NZ electricity source.
nzre2.jpg

Most people decide and vote on easily absorbable simple "facts" and memes, they will never understand any of the depths of generation and are completely at the mercy of the Chewbacca attack routine https://youtu.be/clKi92j6eLE

One of the ironic twists for all this extreme media exposure for gas in Australia is that its the crucial ingredient when you want to go on a large amount of "renewables" and don't have other sources. Aside from South Australia and to a lesser extent WA the major states don't need gas unless its an emergency type situation as they could just ramp up coal burning.
The local media has basically told Victoria, Queensland and NSW that you wont have electricity without gas but these states largely rely on coal for electricity generation.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b82d16037e87974c70f8c6b8a8122c72e5d4b26d9dd5b2a865fde023b7031cb.jpg
One of the reasons why SA has hit all new highs in electricity prices is because they are being forced to use their wind and solar more than ever before because gas (their secret real local generation non-farming energy source) has become increasingly expensive due to over-use of it and its low availability. Sometimes SA can go for a week with very little wind so it becomes almost entirely dependant on its own gas generators or coal generation from the interstate electricity grid lines from Victoria.
SA then complain the Victoria generators are gouging them on spot prices, but if you're not willing to generate your own power then what do you expect, if the right-minded Victoria state premier leader comes along he will just pull down that interstate grid connection between Victoria and South Australia and save Victorians millions of dollars a day in electricity costs.

I still can't get over the craziness of it all as the CO2 PPM levels in the southern hemisphere are considerably lower than the co2 PPM in the northern hemisphere putting aside the fact that everyone merely breathing in the world puts out x18 times more co2 each year than all of Australias coal-powerstations combined each year. Believing its such an emergency to quickly faze out co2 emissions in Australia to the point that almost all recycling of glass and plastics has stopped due to energy now being too expensive is silly. All this recyclable material is dumped as landfill garbage instead, that's being less green than just letting plants and sea-weed grow by sucking up all that extra co2.

Global population is at 7.5billion and each human breaths out 0.365tons of co2 annually. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#Human_physiology "The body produces approximately 2.3 pounds (1.0 kg) of carbon dioxide per day per person"
So its 7,500,000,000 x 0.365 = 2,737,500,000. So 2.7billion tons of co2 per year just from human breathing! A fraction of Australian coal emissions which are about 151 million tons of co2 annually.
2,700,000,000 / 151,000,000 = 18

Most grow-rooms that have co2 generators bring up the CO2 levels to 1500PPM to send plants into a growing frenzy instead of normal average atmosphere CO2 400PPM levels and its fact it only takes 60minutes of the lights being on and the co2 generator being turned off for most of the elevated co2 ppm level turns back to normal ppm levels. Its another way of putting it that there is plenty of time to plan these things more properly.

How about a meme to finish this post.

Going by the general science (not linked to co2 emissions) it would be about 1,000 years, but the debate will only end when every single dollar has been milked from those who mostly go on the most easily absorbable information and every ounce of political power from it all has been extracted.
 
OK, so the argument is that some parts of the world are blessed with lots of solar, wind, geothermal or hydro potential, but other parts are not. So why not a global power trading market? It sounds like one already exists for renewable power between neighbouring countries. We already run gas and oil pipelines across continents, why not high voltage DC power lines?

Hillhater said:
Whatever the true figures, the simple fact remains that Denmark has a very high proportion of Wind generation, and (coincidentally ?). One of the highest consumer cost for electricity.

This just seems like a casually mistaking correlation with causation. Denmark has a high level of social security and also high levels of taxation generally to fund it.
 
Keep in mind that TOTAL ENERGY, not just the electricity portion, is tied to GDP. And will rise 1:1. World wide it will grow at the economic minimum of 2%/ year. Doubling every 35 years. Until we find a way to totally rewrite the freemarket economic system and curtail population growth.
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Downward fluctuations in New Zealand's energy consumption in the last 20 years are the result of two major recessions.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand#Economy
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And all liquid fuel for aggriculture, transportation, and heat worldwide will have to be replaced by electricity in 150 years. What will make this much electricity? What ever additional hydro is left in any country needs to be developed at any ecological cost before the liquid fuel runs out. And we need to get busy building somethings that can crank out the rest of 40 TW by then.
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NZPrimaryEnergy2014.png

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EiNZ-electricity-CORRECTED-1024x572.png

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