Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[Punx0r]

They are in your neck of the woods..(Oxford.).. You should pop round and have a chat..put them straight !

By Aussie standards they're practically my neighbours My understanding is their research has been the groundwork for the larger ITER facility in France where there's the actual chance for a sustained reaction/useful power output.

 

[Punx0r]

The MEGA grid...
It would appear that the ideal RE solution of distributed generation potentially eliminating the need for high capacity Grid infrastructure, has been rethought to the extent that infact “super” and Continent wide “Mega” Grids are necessary to enable RE to function effectively.
The EU has already dictated that every country/state will have at least capacity to trasfer 10% of its generation capacity to neighbouring countries by 2025 and even higher levels beyond that.
This involves the construction of huge amounts of HVDC interconnectors between countries.
https://www.tdworld.com/grid-innovations/transmission/article/20971591/on-the-verge-of-the-mega-grid

Yes, it has been widely expected this will be required, or at least, beneficial. The wind doesn't always blow locally. Sunshine varies too.

You can't argue this isn't cool:



Construction of the London Array, 175 off-shore turbines. At the time it was the largest offshore wind farm in the world. That ship can life itself out of water 40m (132ft) deep.

 

[Punx0r]

Would you like to see the oldest operating wind turbine in the world?

https://www.power-technology.com/features/oldest-operating-wind-turbine-tvindkraft/

It was built by a collective of citizens, lead by local school teachers who were fed up with energy shortages and high prices caused by the oil crisis in the '70s. It was built with second-hand parts and has been in operation for 41 years. In that time it's estimated to have generated enough electricity to power New York City for 3 months.

This one turbine was the starting point for Denmark's exploitation of its wind energy resources and it become a dominant World player in wind turbine technology and manufacturing.

 

[Punx0r]

Subsidies to Australian wind turbines will amount to $5.0 + MILLION EACH !
Currently , each turbine averages $525,000 in subsidies annually !
Note:- each wind turbine generates less than 8000MWh annually,..value less than $400,000 !!

..On the basis of there being 2 077 wind turbines in Australia, the RET provides $1.09 billion per annum to the wind industry. On this basis, and assuming the RET operates for another 15 years, the RET cross-subsidy for existing turbines from now until 2030 will be in the vicinity of $9.3 billion.

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Wind_Turbines/Wind_Turbines/Final%20Report/c07

There's something wrong in your country if subsidies for wind turbines cost more than all the electricity they produce.

 

[sendler2112]

"COVID-19 presents the world with an insoluble dilemma: unplug the networked economy to fight the pandemic, or power on through it?

China has largely unplugged, in an effort to stop the spread of infection and minimize mortality. But this massive effort—closing businesses and factories, enforcing quarantines across cities and provinces—is itself having a huge impact not just on China’s economy, but on the entire global system. Supply chains are being disrupted, and not just for cars and smart phones, but also for medical equipment and pharmaceuticals. This is the main reason world stock markets have crashed in recent days.

Recent satellite images show a massive drop-off in nitrogen dioxide emissions from China. While we don’t yet know the full economic impact of the virus in China, especially when things are changing so quickly, we do know from historical data that there’s a nearly 1:1:1 correlation between energy usage, CO2 emissions, and GDP. China’s carbon emissions have dropped 25 percent, so that may mean their economy has contracted accordingly. Even without further disease contagion, the global economy may be on track for financial and economic turmoil simply as a result of China’s efforts to contain the virus."
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https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-03/covid-19-the-black-swan-is-circling/

 

[Punx0r]

we do know from historical data that there’s a nearly 1:1:1 correlation between energy usage, CO2 emissions, and GDP.

You must have posted that same false statement 20 times now in this thread. Is this a Trump-esque strategy? Keep repeating a lie until people conclude there must be some truth to it?

You prepers/dommsayers must be getting very excited that just maybe this could finally be the great die-off you've been waiting for! The COVID-19 virus could eliminate the real "virus" that's plaguing Mother Earth Gaia.

 

[sendler2112]

Is this a Trump-esque strategy?

Just a fact based on data. I didn't say it. Richard Heinberg said it in the essay I quoted above. Among many others.
Some of Heinberg's work:
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https://www.postcarbon.org/publications/theres-no-app-for-that/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=ALugeRQbXAM&feature=emb_logo
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https://ourrenewablefuture.org/introduction/
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Hanna Ritchie and Max Roser give us the excellent site "Our World In Data" and sourced this chart which Vaclav Smil posted in 2017
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https://ourworldindata.org/energy
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Ugo Bardi produced this chart:
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[TheBeastie]

"COVID-19 presents the world with an insoluble dilemma: unplug the networked economy to fight the pandemic, or power on through it?

China has largely unplugged, in an effort to stop the spread of infection and minimize mortality. But this massive effort—closing businesses and factories, enforcing quarantines across cities and provinces—is itself having a huge impact not just on China’s economy, but on the entire global system. Supply chains are being disrupted, and not just for cars and smart phones, but also for medical equipment and pharmaceuticals. This is the main reason world stock markets have crashed in recent days.

Recent satellite images show a massive drop-off in nitrogen dioxide emissions from China. While we don’t yet know the full economic impact of the virus in China, especially when things are changing so quickly, we do know from historical data that there’s a nearly 1:1:1 correlation between energy usage, CO2 emissions, and GDP. China’s carbon emissions have dropped 25 percent, so that may mean their economy has contracted accordingly. Even without further disease contagion, the global economy may be on track for financial and economic turmoil simply as a result of China’s efforts to contain the virus."
.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-03/covid-19-the-black-swan-is-circling/

Yep it's all interesting. Apparently one of the major China TV manufacturing panel makers made only 50,000 panels in the last month when they normally make close to 1 million, or numbers something crazy like that.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4329320-dont-panic-chinas-manufacturing-pmi-falls-off-cliff
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-pmi

Pollution monitoring satellites have detected significant decreases in nitrogen dioxide over China. There is evidence that the change is at least partly related to the economic slowdown following the outbreak of coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/NASA/status/1234185262290415618
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=NASA&utm_campaign=NASASocial&linkId=83339381

NASA is usually dubiously cagey with their pollution satellites, they have a bunch of them up in the air that can monitor many GHGs including CO2 levels, but they don't ever release much from them. I think they are hiding something.

This is the best COVID19 vs common flu death rate chart I have seen yet. So it now makes sense why China did quarantine/block entire cities and mass anti-germ fog everything, because the death rate for the COVID19 is higher.
I don't know about stockpiling toilet paper "level higher" but definitely higher.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Saw this meme since all the local news/social media videos of folks buying up all the toilet paper in the super-markets.

This was snapped in Sydney, Sorbent and "Coles" in the background are oz brands

 

[Hillhater]

Until there is a vaccine available...

 

[Punx0r]

Is this a Trump-esque strategy?

Just a fact based on data. I didn't say it. Richard Heinberg said it in the essay I quoted above. Among many others.
Some of Heinberg's work:

Once again, it's not based on fact at all. Go look at Energy usage per $ of GDP of Japan compared to USA.

Consider you can be one of the countries that swapped from coal-fired generation to gas: same energy, half the CO2, no drop in GDP.

As for this chart, let's take a look:

At $20tn GDP energy is 5 GT OE
At $60tn GDP energy is 11 GT OE

So while GDP trebled energy usage only doubled

Is that a 1:1 ratio?

If you mean that in World of growing population, increasing affluence and economic activity based on the same system of resource exploitation and consumption that we've had for the past 200 years, while making little efficiency gains, then energy usage will increase, then of course it will. But economic growth, energy usage and CO2 emissions are definitely NOT inextricably locked together.

 

[ZeroEm]

COVID-19 is like antibodies, killing off earths infection.

 

[sendler2112]

Consider you can be one of the countries that swapped from coal-fired generation to gas: same energy, half the CO2, no drop in GDP.

So Energy and economy are not quite 1:1 but are still highly correlated at R^2= .99.
$20 Trillion was 5.5 Billion MTOE, $70T was 12.75 BMTOE. 10:7
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Natural gas is much lower CO2 than coal but not as dense to transport and store.
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Wind and solar are still not even keeping up with growth worldwide. Let alone displacing anything.
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A chart by Rune Likvern showing year on year changes of energy consumption from carbon vs rebuildable energy sources. The world is still adding carbon consumption faster than the rebuildable production can replace it.
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The only year we reduced energy consumption was the first year of the great recession.
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Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. Human civilization is fast approaching the limits to growth in many converging bottlenecks. We will need a whole new way that can thrive equitably while we degrow.

 

[JackFlorey]

COVID-19 is like antibodies, killing off earths infection.

Quite a lot of drama for a disease that has, so far, killed .5% of what the ordinary flu kills every year!

 

[ZeroEm]

by JackFlorey » Mar 05 2020 4:45pm

ZeroEm wrote: ↑Mar 05 2020 5:26am
COVID-19 is like antibodies, killing off earths infection.
Quite a lot of drama for a disease that has, so far, killed .5% of what the ordinary flu kills every year!

Don't worry it is not over yet. It has been said that it will disappear all by itself so go about your business and don't give it a second thought.

 

[Dauntless]

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-dystopian-lake-filled-by-the-world-s-tech-lust

 

[Punx0r]

Yes, look what your thirst for iphones, stained glass and computer hard drives has done to the environment. Fortunately research in the fields of renewable energy means wind turbines and EV motors and batteries don't NEED rare earth elements.

 

[sendler2112]

Nafeez Ahmed wrote this today. "First and foremost, is an underlying global resource crisis which I have reported on for many years, and which was particularly well-summarized by a new report from the Geological Survey of Finland which I covered for VICE. The report concluded that the 2008 financial crash was triggered by a global shift to more expensive sources of fossil fuel energy, due to the depletion of cheaper conventional resources. As global economic growth is fundamentally dependent on increasing energy and raw material inputs, this shift was compensated for by massive Quantitative Easing (QE) — essentially, the expansion of global debt. This debt-expansion has fuelled GDP growth to the point that debt levels for some years have been higher than they were before the 2008 crash. But such growth is, the Finnish government study says, a “debt fueled mirage”. It warns that within the next five to ten years these dynamics would come to a head, generating a new energy-linked financial crash."
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https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-05/coronavirus-synchronous-failure-and-the-global-phase-shift/
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5 years left. Plus or minus 4.

 

[sendler2112]

"The Geological Survey of Finland study is significant because it brings a massive amount of data that fits extremely well my contention that global industrial civilization is in the last stage of its systemic life cycle, as defined by ecologist CS Holling’s four stages of a system’s growth and decline.

The first stage was growth, which took place rapidly over perhaps 200 years or so from the nineteenth century until the late twentieth century. It then went through the second stage of conservation which appeared to stabilize between 1970 and the early 2000s. The third stage, the release phase, appears to have begun around then and escalated to this day.

This is a period of uncertainty and chaos as the system begins to decline. During this stage, the uncertainty opens up new possibilities for change, where small perturbations in the system can have deep impacts in a way they could not do during the first and second phases. This is the crucial global ‘phase shift’ point where our actions can determine the fourth stage of reorganization. In this stage, the foundations of new system can be forged, paving the way for the emergence of a new life cycle.

So there are two elements to understanding the coronavirus as a symptom of a global phase-shift. One is the collapse side — recognizing the processes of decline as symptomatic of the release phase which results in numerous structures in the system experiencing interlocking, cascading failures. The second is the renewal side — which means watching, capitalizing on and empowering new structures, patterns and values for the new life cycle."

 

[JackFlorey]

Don't worry it is not over yet.

No it's not. But it has peaked in China, as all epidemics do eventually.

 

[Hillhater]

Nafeez Ahmed wrote this today.
"The report concluded that the 2008 financial crash was triggered by a global shift to more expensive sources of fossil fuel energy, .........

So, nothing to do with “Sub Prime” then ?

 

[Dauntless]

Well, indeed, subprime has been overrated while people forget $139/barrels of oil and $5.50 a gallon for gas. The rise of natural gas took place here, the collapse in price caught many with financial commitments that clobbered them.

Just think of the disasters awaiting if vegans succeed and killing off the cow industry.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/africa/agriculture-regenerative-farming-climate-crisis-intl/index.html

 

[Punx0r]

Oil and gas prices were high due to demand and, particularly, speculative investors, not because they were inherently expensive, scarce or difficult to produce. Prices for both collapsed after the crash and there was a glut on the market.

 

[Ianhill]

Veganism is less than 1%.

It's like the EV chargers sensationalized headline.
EV chargers have a massive growth spurt at local supermarket installs.

Commendable but there was not any to begin with so clearly theres a huge growth when 4 come along from none, dont stop the car park been full of thousands of ice burners, same inside the supermarket there a few vegans about looking at the small section on one isle they have but most people are eating meat and bloody well enjoying it too.

 

[Hillhater]

They are in your neck of the woods..(Oxford.).. You should pop round and have a chat..put them straight !

By Aussie standards they're practically my neighbours My understanding is their research has been the groundwork for the larger ITER facility in France where there's the actual chance for a sustained reaction/useful power output.

Yes, the “FirstLight” guy said on the video, that their main business is the ”Inertial Confinement “ technology and production of the “target pellet” and the way it generates the high temperatures for the Fusion reaction.
Encouraging work, but obviously a long way to go yet but they are confident it will be fully commercial and producing base load Electricity generation by 2030

 

[Dauntless]

You could cry not just for what they lost, but for their resilience in keeping it alive. Maybe there could be some solar power coils in the water to freeze it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elfstedentocht-netherlands-skating-marathon-bill-whitaker-60-minutes-2020-03-08/

Meanwhile the glut occurred BEFORE the price drop, which was then caused. There were some layoffs, decrease in demand, etc. 2008 was 11 years in the making, beginning with the Thai financial crisis in 1997. With people off work, they can't make the home payments, etc. It was quite a snowball, far bigger than mere real estate loans. But people think they have a way to blame Wall Street, so they won't let go of the idea.

And if so many had their way, vegan would be 100%. Not just vegans, have you ever noticed how many people sound off about doing away with livestock while they're eating hamburgers, etc.?