Toyota’s 1:6:90 rule ?

[Hillhater]

Some insight as to why toyota are unconvinced about the full BEV approach..

Toyota’s 1:6:90 Rule – The Case for Hybrids - ENERGYminute

Nothing beats sending someone a private message, only to have them immediately take a screenshot and send it to someone else. Corporate leak: Toyota recently issued a summary of its electric vehicle production and sales strategy to its dealerships, providing insight into Toyota’s decision to...

energyminute.ca

The punchline: In their view, not only does this help more people drive lower-emission vehicles, Toyota believes that the overall carbon reduction of 90 hybrids over their lifetime is 37 times greater than a single-battery electric vehicle.

 

[offGridDownUnder]

I cannot speak to the numbers, but the reasoning seems plausible.

 

[Chalo]

"The punchline" is a cute way to say that BEVs are 2.43 times less awful than poison fueled hybrids.

But they're all cars, so they're all awful AF.

 

[neptronix]

From a business view it's a good strategy considering what buyer habits reward.

One reason why they're successful is they make rational and conservative technology choices. Very thrifty with R&D money and they rarely make big bets on things that don't pan out. This is part of how they offer such high value cars.

I agree that betting big on hybrids is a good transitional vehicle strategy considering they know they can't compete with Tesla ( nobody can right now )

Toyota also has serious investments in solid state batteries and plans to give Tesla a run for their money in a few years.

It still sucks that a company with these abilities is so behind on electric development though. At one point, they were ahead.
But Toyota is just not one to take big risks..

 

[Hillhater]

the reasoning seems plausible.

I would say the reasoning makes logical sense, both from a overall reduction in emissions objective, and a forward business plan for Toyota .
Aussie Taxi company 13Cabs, have also gone one step further by having their Camry Hybrids converted to use LPG also, to not only further reduce emissions, but also to reduce running costs by up to $6-8000 per year.!

LPG Hybrid Camrys can save $6000 a year

Cost savings highlight new push to promote Australia’s only domestic automobile fuel

premium.goauto.com.au

 

[jonescg]

Perhaps. But hybrids still burn gasoline, and our goal is to stop doing that.
All this says to me, is that we need more small battery EVs on the market.

 

[jonescg]

It also assumes that battery materials are limited, which is untrue. Mattery materials are as abundant as our production systems allow. That said, I'm not keen on seeing 1.4 billion cars which run on electricity on the roads - much rather 800 million electric cars and the rest managed by more efficient means like bikes, buses and trains.

 

[Hillhater]

….But hybrids still burn gasoline, and our goal is to stop doing that.

Thats idealistic, ..but this is the real world, and we have to be REALISTIC.!
So any option that reduces the use of oil has to be considered useful.
The whole world is not going to switch to EVs, ….but if many more can switch to Hybrids /PHEVs (or LPG) , then that is a big step in the right direction.
It seems Ford are now thinking this way also..

Ford announced Thursday that it’s delaying the production of two electric vehicles, a next-generation EV pickup and a three-row EV SUV. The pair are now slated to arrive in 2026 and 2027, delays of one and two years respectively. In their place, the automaker will be introducing hybrids across its U.S. lineup.

 

[j bjork]

It dosent make sense to me. If one bev battery should have enough battery cells for 6 plug ins, the average bev has to be 80kwh to make six 13kwh batteries. So far maybe, but then with the battery out of the question the plug ins have the same things as the bev and an ice car. I cant see how it would be possible to build 6 of them with the amount of raw materials you use for one simpler car.

 

[j bjork]

Edit ok, it said one long range bev, so more like 100kwh. Then the battery would be enough for six 16,5kwh plug in hybrid cars.

 

[gromike]

Nonsense comparison there. The graphic is about the amount of certain materials used more prodigiously in battery construction, then equates that to lifetime carbon consumption of the vehicle.

 

[jonescg]

Yes, once those 90 hybrids are built, they will all release 1.2 tons of CO2 each year, for 15 years, through operation.

It seemed to me that 50 kWh was a good maximum size battery for most people's needs. Hell, I'm rolling around in a 2012 Leaf right now with an effective 12 kWh battery. It works.

 

[Hillhater]

Yes, once those 90 hybrids are built, they will all release 1.2 tons of CO2 each year, for 15 years, through operation.

Which is better than 1 EV releasing “0” CO2 ..TOGETHER with 89 ICEs each releasing 5+ tons per year !!

 

[neptronix]

All this says to me, is that we need more small battery EVs on the market.

The main problem is that ya need buyers for them..

EVs with small battery packs did horrible in the market!

 

[Hillhater]

All this says to me, is that we need more small battery EVs on the market.

The main problem is that ya need buyers for them..

EVs with small batteries (<20kWh) ..sounds very much like most PHEVs.
with a useable electric range of 50-100+ km, they can easily fulfil the average car users daily requirement without using any fuel….…..and also perform the longer distance duties when needed.

Edit… Australia alone has 47 different PHEV models available.
Some with a official consumption of 1.1ltr/100km (250mpg) and 28g/km Co2, and a 60+ km electric only range.

 

[topspeed]

"The punchline" is a cute way to say that BEVs are 2.43 times less awful than poison fueled hybrids.

But they're all cars, so they're all awful AF.

What is poison fuel ?

 

[jonescg]

Edit… Australia alone has 47 different PHEV models available.
Some with a official consumption of 1.1ltr/100km (250mpg) and 28g/km Co2, and a 60+ km electric only range.

And yet, the PHEV market share is steady while BEVs grow. I think the lack of charging infrastructure drove PHEVs and big-battery EVs a few years ago, but now that's less of an issue.

If Toyota wants to meet the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards, they can (and should) lean heavily on their hybrids. That might buy them enough time to develop some compelling EVs.

 

[j bjork]

The problem with small battery bev:s is that you need another car for the longer trips.
It would work for those that have two cars anyway, but it limits the numbers of potential buyers.

 

[Hillhater]

And yet, the PHEV market share is steady while BEVs grow.

i guess that depends on how you view the data …
…it appears to be a fast growing market sector !

While PHEVs are still the second-least popular drivetrain – sitting only above hydrogen vehicles – the 11,212 plug-in petrol-hybrid cars sold represented growth of almost 89 per cent on the year prior, behind only the growth rate of the electric vehicle segment (up 161 per cent).

VFACTS 2023: The best-selling hybrids and plug-in hybrids in Australia

Following a record year for new hybrid and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) car sales, the winners in the electrified vehicle race have emerged.

www.carexpert.com.au

 

[jonescg]

The problem with small battery bev:s is that you need another car for the longer trips.
It would work for those that have two cars anyway, but it limits the numbers of potential buyers.

In Australia we have plenty of 2, 3 and 4 car households. One-car households are pretty rare.
And this is definitely not a good thing, but it's become a necessary thing thanks to suburban sprawl and poor publictransport.

 

[Hillhater]

Small battery (<30 kWh) EVs would easily work for most of the City/suburban users (80% of australians ?) whose average daily usage is less than 50 km.
Indeed some of the first EVs were just that (Nissan Leaf, 24kWh, 100+km) and were widely accepted, ….but as users tried to venture beyond the design limits of such vehicles, and the lack of chargers, the concept of “Range Anxiety” became a hot topic and manufacturers used “Range” as a major sales feature with the result that battery capacities increased to fulfill buyers expectations.
The obvious, and unfortunate, consequence of that is the increase in EV prices and the demise of the smaller battery options…
(even the Leaf is now 40-60 kWh)…
Models and prices are changing frequently, but currently in Australia the cheapest EVs are around $40k , and PHEVs $47k,
But the “small battery” PHEV will fulfil both the electric city commute, and the longer intercity/ holiday journeys without the need for a second vehicle.