What will it take to make ebikes, More mainstream ?

rumme said:
Sondors has PROVEN that the $600 ebike market was a niche that needed to be filled and he made a ton of money filling that niche and the majority of his customers seem satisfied. Why would you be negative about it ?

A $600 new e-bike is like a $3000 new car. It would be possible to come up with something that looks like a car and sell it for $3000, but it wouldn't be worth owning.

A lot of people would buy one, simply because it cost $3000. But it would not work out for them.

Yes, a Sondors will do just as well as any other e-bike for someone who doesn't ride it. But the degree to which it disappoints is a simple function of how much you actually ride it.

There's a cheaper option if you don't ride your bike.
 
There is something worse than sh*t components to a cheap ebike: Some who are interested to turn to ebiking, buy this sh*t and believe that is what ebikes are. They soon stop riding it and back they are to burn gas in a personnal car. Sh*t bikes are not gonna help spreading the use of ebikes. They only help some crooks making a buck, and to fill the scrapyards some more junk.
 
MadRhino said:
There is something worse than sh*t components to a cheap ebike: Some who are interested to turn to ebiking, buy this sh*t and believe that is what ebikes are. They soon stop riding it and back they are to burn gas in a personnal car. Sh*t bikes are not gonna help spreading the use of ebikes. They only help some crooks making a buck, and to fill the scrapyards some more junk.

Its up to each individual consumer, to do their own homework prior to spending their own money. If they don't do this, then they carry much of the blame. I'm sure there re some people who bought a Sondors ebike, and thought they could use it for things it was never constructed to be used for. I still believe the Sondors has had more benefits then negatives , not only in introducing many people to ebikes, but also forcing prices to become more competitive in the ebike markets . In other words, the consumer no longer has to pay $1200 for a premade Sondors type ebike . This wasn't the case several years ago. Competition and lower prices almost always benefits the consumers. It is the competition that will result in a sub $2000 priced ebike, with the features I listed in my 1st post. Some may view this as a bad thing, I don't.
 
Rumme,

Just a quick note on the Sonders, then that is all I will talk about it.

There is someone in my town that has one, when I asked him several months ago about it , he was pleased with it, He was not pleased with having to pay up front and wait several months for it. I think he also had to come up with a couple hundred $$$ to get it shipped though ?
Anyway
Fast Forward to just a week ago.
I Saw him again on his Sonders , I asked him again how he is liking it His response was .. I like it , But , I just got a different E-Bike for my Wife and I like that one much better.

I do think it is a good E-Bike for a Starving College Student since many bikes get stolen on and around College Campuses .

>

You are on the Right track about getting a Turn Key E-Bike that will be priced to sell more to a larger amount of people.
Each Country and Region of that Country will dictate what that price point is.

Not sure if you are starting this thread because you want to see a decent quality offered at your price point, Or , if you want to get into the business yourself and are doing some market analysis ?
Your Answer ?
 
ScooterMan101 said:
Rumme,

Just a quick note on the Sonders, then that is all I will talk about it.

There is someone in my town that has one, when I asked him several months ago about it , he was pleased with it, He was not pleased with having to pay up front and wait several months for it. I think he also had to come up with a couple hundred $$$ to get it shipped though ?
Anyway
Fast Forward to just a week ago.
I Saw him again on his Sonders , I asked him again how he is liking it His response was .. I like it , But , I just got a different E-Bike for my Wife and I like that one much better.

That is all I will say about the Sonders, as I believe there is a learning curve that everyone must go through.

You are on the Right track about getting a Turn Key E-Bike that will be priced to sell more to a larger amount of people.
Each Country and Region of that Country will dictate what that price point is.

Not sure if you are starting this thread because you want to see a decent quality offered at your price point, Or , if you want to get into the business yourself and are doing some market analysis ?
Your Answer ?


Oh, I don't have any interest in starting a ebike business. I have built 3 ebikes and can even do the spoke lacing, but in my quest to get a 4th ebike, I have decided to sit back and wait to see if 1 manufacturer decides to offer the stats / price I think the ebike market is crying for. In other words, I think Sondors did a decent job of hitting the low priced / low end ebike market below $1000 . I now think the market needs a mid end - mid priced ebike with the features I noted for between the $1500- $1990 range. This would be a few steps up from sondors, but not marketed for racing, jumping and other stressful situations. It would be able to handle some dirt trails, gravel roads , and have a top speed of 30-35 mph with the 48 volt/ 20AH battery pack. IMHO, its always better to have more AH capacity then you need. It not only gives you more range, but it is better for the battery to not be continually drained near completion.

I'm ready to have a 4th ebike, and I'm doing my best to sit back and wait for a manufacturer to hit the stats, I think are missing from the ebike market, and present a strong opportunity for sales. For me, the biggest advantage of buying a premade ebike, is it generally looks more streamlined/ finished . I think within the next 12 months, we will see the ebike I describe at the price point I describe. Manufacturers and businesses know the numbers game when it comes to sales.
A $2295 ebike, sounds a lot more expensive then a $1880 ebike of similar features. Breaking the $2000 price barrier is therefore, a physcological one and a financial one for the consumer. Sondors knew this, with the sub $1000 ebike.
 
Many customers dont want to be bothered with kits.
Many customers are sticker shocked at the ebikes commercially available from their LBS.
They turn to the internet and get a feel for the ebike community.
Many lurk here on ES for a very long time before they delve into a kit.
Some lurk here on ES for some time, see a Sondors thread, see that Justin at ebikes.ca sells stuff and is reputable and will help you out, then they open their wallets.

I think the title of this thread should be changed to Mainstream in North America and the EU.
 
markz said:
Many customers dont want to be bothered with kits.
Many customers are sticker shocked at the ebikes commercially available from their LBS.
They turn to the internet and get a feel for the ebike community.
Many lurk here on ES for a very long time before they delve into a kit.
Some lurk here on ES for some time, see a Sondors thread, see that Justin at ebikes.ca sells stuff and is reputable and will help you out, then they open their wallets.

I think the title of this thread should be changed to Mainstream in North America and the EU.

Yes, the more choices that are offered in varying price ranges, will result in the market finding the best " niche" for the consumer. Sondors seems to fill that market for the under $1000 price range very well. Now I think the market needs to fill that niche for the sub $2000 price range, with notable improvements over the Sondors offerings.
 
While it’s true more people are currently adopting eBikes for transportation I don’t believe it will ever become the huge “hit” that some folks predict it will become. Society has had very capable and affordable motorcycles/scooters available for decades yet how many, by comparison to cars, do you actually see on the roads on any given day? In So CA maybe 1 out of 10-30 cars, if that?

Of course eBikes carry the allure of nearly silent propulsion and can go places where stink bikes would cause a ruckus. But still, when inexperienced riders take to the street for the 1st time, one can imagine the terror they must feel among all the hurtling machinery whizzing around. Bottom line, riding in traffic scares the shit out of people who don’t receive some training to deal with it in a sensible and reasonably safe manner.

There’s 2 step process to rider training. The 1st part is simply learning the controls, braking, counter-steering, etc. The 2nd part and most important, IMO, is how to read and interpret traffic situations in order to stay out of harms way. The later is a never-ending process that should be applied to any or all vehicles regardless of profile. MSF (motorcycle safety foundation) is the standard I hitch my learning.

In a perfect world, the average person would never be granted license to drive Cars/Trucks until they were moto qualified. Reason is simple, if a moto rider screws up and crashes into a sedan with family of 4, it’s practically guaranteed the occupants will walk away unharmed.

Bikes actually carry many advantages to cars/trucks in regard to small profile, normally superior braking, no blind spots along with being more in touch with the immediate environment. I've heard traffic coming up on me and I've smelled Diesel/gasoline spilled on road surfaces which can present a loss of traction if unaware of it's presence. The only major disadvantage to cycling IMO, is direct confrontation with a much larger vehicle. That shouldn't ever happen and it probably won't if someone learns, adopts and practices the defensive driving strategies that have been documented in great detail.
 
Yes...I guess I shoulda said in my title " MORE MAINSTREAM" because it is obvious that ebikes wont be replacing cars, at least here in america. I do believe there are many foreign nations where scooters/mopeds and even ebikes are more widely used then cars.
 
In CA and other states which adopted the Class 1,2,3 legislation, bikes won't go faster than 28 mph since they are mopeds at that point and need the license/insurance requirements for them.
 
In Switzerland electric bikes are very much Mainstream.. BUT all Legal ones, very few like mine with throttle and open class motor ;)
 
I would assume the Sondors sub $1000 entry level ebike, opened up the world of ebikes to 10s of thousands of new customers.

The next step is the sub $2000 mid level ebike with 30-35 mph speed , 48 volt / 20 AH battery + suspension in 3 frame sizes. Keep it simple, clean but attractive and upgraded from sondors all for $1500- $1900 delivered, and I think that is the next big market to be tapped in the ebike world. A 500 watt nominal mid drive or 1000 watt nominal hub drive , with more powerful controller/ battery will do this , so its not that big of a feat, in terms of manufacturing.
 
Ebikes will never become mass market vehicles until they address the paired issues of sun and rain protection and climate control. We already have cheap and reliable two wheeled commuter vehicles and they stubbornly remain niche products. People do not want to bake in the sun or get soaked by the rain on their way to work, nor do they want to swelter in the heat on an asphalt street. Look at trends in the small car market: refinement is selling cars to commuters, each generation of a model line is quieter and smoother than the preceding with better HVAC. That's what the people want.
 
The Only way to get large masses of people to start using E-Bikes is ...

Sub $2,000 ( in Reality Sub $ 2,500 ) Fully Suspended , Fully Enclosed , 3 wheel , Electric Velo Mobiles !

That is it , Really nothing else will do it .

Many people in the world need Rain and Wind Protection, Some even need cover from Snow Storms, Everyone needs protection to the body from a crash, People Who Commute to work need and want to get there without having to take a shower and change cloths when they get there.
Women want to get to their destination without having to spend allot of time re doing their hair. ( yea I have spoken with many Woman about riding a motorcycle and the number 1 reason why they do not want to ride a motorcycle is Safety, the number 2 reason and it is most always mentioned is , " It would mess up my Hair " .

There are more reasons why , Only , A Full Suspended , Fully Enclosed , Electric Velo Mobile will be what will get large numbers of people to commute/ or even Recreation ally ride an E-Bike.



rumme said:
The next step is the sub $2000 mid level ebike with 30-35 mph speed , 48 volt / 20 AH battery + suspension in 3 frame sizes. Keep it simple, clean but attractive and upgraded from sondors all for $1500- $1900 delivered, and I think that is the next big market to be tapped in the ebike world. A 500 watt nominal mid drive or 1000 watt nominal hub drive , with more powerful controller/ battery will do this , so its not that big of a feat, in terms of manufacturing.
 
rumme said:
I would assume the Sondors sub $1000 entry level ebike, opened up the world of ebikes to 10s of thousands of new customers...

I believe that you are very optimistic about the sales of Sondors bikes. Then, of all of them sold, half at least are sleeping in a garden shed because people did quit riding them. Sadly, many of those would still be riding if they had started with a good bike.
 
Yeah I couldnt agree with MadRhino more on that.
They were expecting something they did not get, with Sondors over-hyping perhaps the range and power.

Its more about educating people, and where they can go look for more info on ebiking. A common question is "How long can you ride" or "How much time do you get on a charge" then its talking to them about all the factors.
 
Cities like San Francisco should subsidize Ebikes that live up to a set of criteria and provide education about them. I bet a lot of people would buy something like a Faraday S if it were $1,500 instead of $2,500 and a significant portion of that subsidy could be made up in reduced road maintenance if cycling were to really take off.
 
Why buy an expensive bike that is dangerous and inconvienient to ride to useful destinations where it has a good chance of being stolen at some point, when for the same money or not much more you can buy a used car that's much safer and more convenient to drive to the same destinations where there's relatively secure parking?



Some breakdown of that:

If "drivers ed" and other such sometimes-mandatory courses included a prerequisite "cyclists ed" that taught and encouraged cycling, there'd probably be at least a few more interested people--the roads might be a bit safer if everyone had to learn the POV of a rider before they were allowed to use any larger transportation methods.


But since a fair number of people's first exposure to bikes is usually as a little kid (with no instruction on anything, including safety of them or others) and then they're ridiculed or harassed or even injured for wanting to continue riding (for the few that do), and safe paths are frequently neighborhood-only and don't go anywhere useful even when they do go outside a tiny area, it's difficult to get people to want to use a bike for any kind of main or even secondary transportation--it's just a toy to most.


Not gonna change that unless you start at the bottom and work your way up, while running a parallel training system for all existing drivers, riders, and pedestrians, to teach them all how to share safely and considerately.

Many don't want to share roads/paths/etc, won't unless forced, and some won't even if you do force them to. Many others will grudgingly do so, and some are courteous enough to share properly.


But the way roads/etc are built now, and the way drivers/etc are trained (formally or by default allowances), there's not enough to encourage people to change to a "lesser" form of transportation, especially since it's a dangerous one to use, and very inconvenient.


Another issue is theft: cars get stolen, but law enforcement is much more likely to do that job for a car than a bike of any kind. Exactly why, I don't know (I have plenty of speculation), but until that also changes, people aren't as likely to risk spending a lot of money on a bike as transport vs a car, especially since they're trained that the bike is not anywhere near as useful as a car, and it definitely isn't as safe or convenient. Insurance availability doesn't change the root problem, either--even if they can get it insured against theft, vandalism, vehicular onslaught ("accident"), etc.


Then you have the minimal facilities in existence for bikes, like for parking/securing them at various destinations or living places.

Most places have no facilities at all. Those that do might have as many as four places to lock up a bike, tucked away out of sight around the side, or even the back of the building, where they won't be in the way of the flood of people coming from the automotive parking lot that is larger than the entire place it's for. Occasionally there might even be six or eight lockup spots. Sometimes they even bolt the rack down to the ground, and maybe even with something requiring more than a box wrench and a minute to undo and take teh whole rack and bikes with them (in a truck, etc).




Many of us here on ES accept all these problems as just the way things are, and we live with them because we're willing to, for the thrill of the ride or the way of life we prefer or whatever other reason.

Most people are not willing to.
 
amberwolf said:
Why buy an expensive bike that is dangerous and inconvienient to ride to useful destinations where it has a good chance of being stolen at some point, when for the same money or not much more you can buy a used car that's much safer and more convenient to drive to the same destinations where there's relatively secure parking?
The purchase price might be similar, but that used car will drive you straight into the poorhouse. The 5-year total cost of ownership on any 4-wheeled motor vehicle is well into the tens of thousands of dollars. The difference, if invested at standard market returns, would be worth millions over the course of a career. I agree with you that things are not likely to change anytime soon (see my "chicken and egg" post on the previous page), but some people might be a little more amenable to other forms of transportation if they realized that their driving habit could be costing them literally millions of dollars over the course of a lifetime.


Some breakdown of that:

If "drivers ed" and other such sometimes-mandatory courses included a prerequisite "cyclists ed" that taught and encouraged cycling, there'd probably be at least a few more interested people--the roads might be a bit safer if everyone had to learn the POV of a rider before they were allowed to use any larger transportation methods.


But since a fair number of people's first exposure to bikes is usually as a little kid (with no instruction on anything, including safety of them or others) and then they're ridiculed or harassed or even injured for wanting to continue riding (for the few that do), and safe paths are frequently neighborhood-only and don't go anywhere useful even when they do go outside a tiny area, it's difficult to get people to want to use a bike for any kind of main or even secondary transportation--it's just a toy to most.


Not gonna change that unless you start at the bottom and work your way up, while running a parallel training system for all existing drivers, riders, and pedestrians, to teach them all how to share safely and considerately.

Many don't want to share roads/paths/etc, won't unless forced, and some won't even if you do force them to. Many others will grudgingly do so, and some are courteous enough to share properly.


But the way roads/etc are built now, and the way drivers/etc are trained (formally or by default allowances), there's not enough to encourage people to change to a "lesser" form of transportation, especially since it's a dangerous one to use, and very inconvenient.
This is the chicken and egg problem. Negative attitudes cause low ridership, leading to lack of education and advocacy, and lack of investment in bike infrastructure. This lack of investment means safety (and more importantly, perceived safety) does not improve feeding right back into negative attitudes and starting the loop over again.


Another issue is theft: cars get stolen, but law enforcement is much more likely to do that job for a car than a bike of any kind. Exactly why, I don't know (I have plenty of speculation), but until that also changes, people aren't as likely to risk spending a lot of money on a bike as transport vs a car, especially since they're trained that the bike is not anywhere near as useful as a car, and it definitely isn't as safe or convenient. Insurance availability doesn't change the root problem, either--even if they can get it insured against theft, vandalism, vehicular onslaught ("accident"), etc.


Then you have the minimal facilities in existence for bikes, like for parking/securing them at various destinations or living places.

Most places have no facilities at all. Those that do might have as many as four places to lock up a bike, tucked away out of sight around the side, or even the back of the building, where they won't be in the way of the flood of people coming from the automotive parking lot that is larger than the entire place it's for. Occasionally there might even be six or eight lockup spots. Sometimes they even bolt the rack down to the ground, and maybe even with something requiring more than a box wrench and a minute to undo and take teh whole rack and bikes with them (in a truck, etc).
Agreed on all points, although in an ideal world planners would recognize that the cost to provide adequate infrastructure for bikes is a small fraction of the cost to provide it for the same number of auto drivers and passengers.

Folding bikes go a long way to solving the theft issue, but it's hard to make a folder that's also a decent electric.


Many of us here on ES accept all these problems as just the way things are, and we live with them because we're willing to, for the thrill of the ride or the way of life we prefer or whatever other reason.

Most people are not willing to.
Agreed, but I would argue that it's mostly due to ignorance. If people ever stopped to consider the heavy price they are paying in lost time, health, stress, and money, they might not be so fond of their cars. I gave up my car about 6 months ago and when I do need to rent a Zipcar these days (which happens less and less as I find more creative ways of getting things done by bike), I find that my patience as a driver has plummeted. My tolerance for sitting in traffic has gone to near-zero, and I find myself instinctively starting to do things like drive on the sidewalk to get around jams before I stop myself. After experiencing life on two wheels, I can no longer tolerate the hassles of driving, even in torrential rain or sweltering heat. I would much rather be pelted with buckets of rain in my face than drive around with low visibility and awareness and risk hitting someone. I may be an oddball, but I suspect a significant chunk of the population would come around to that view if they had my experiences.
 
I have given the whole ebikes popularity subjected and decided I dont want ebikes to go mainstream.
Already when riding to work I occasionally ride my ebike I see some folks on full motor bike stealth like bikes going along and the only thing I can see happening is NYC style banning.
In Australia at least there was a recent report of someone on their ebike going at speed hitting a child on a bike path.
The child was hurt so bad they had to fly the kid via helicopter to a major city hospital. The more ebikes go mainstream the more such stories go mainstream.
 
arthurtuxedo said:
The purchase price might be similar, but that used car will drive you straight into the poorhouse. The 5-year total cost of ownership on any 4-wheeled motor vehicle is well into the tens of thousands of dollars.
Almost no one I know that drives a car takes any costs other than the initial one into consideration when buying one. I suspect that is a fairly common attitude, and is why I did not bring any of that up, because the people that think that way are some of the ones that wouldn't buy a bike instead of a car.

That's part of the problem with our consumerist society in general--not considering the future costs of things. :/


This is the chicken and egg problem. Negative attitudes cause low ridership, leading to lack of education and advocacy, and lack of investment in bike infrastructure. This lack of investment means safety (and more importantly, perceived safety) does not improve feeding right back into negative attitudes and starting the loop over again.

Yeah, and that's why I pointed it out. It wont' change until it's forced to happen, and I don't know of a way to do that.


Agreed on all points, although in an ideal world planners would recognize that the cost to provide adequate infrastructure for bikes is a small fraction of the cost to provide it for the same number of auto drivers and passengers.
The catch is getting them to provide it even though they don't see the need for it (yet), *and* getting them to see bikes as a primary transportation mode rather than an annoyance that carry undesirable people to their location.

(which can unfortunately be true in some areas--there's places I sometimes have to go where I won't stop to help a "fellow cyclist" because they are just as likely to hurt/rob/etc me as they are to accept help, especially when there is a group of them. At my workplace and places I shop for groceries at, a significant portion of the bike riders that come are thieves and not customers).



Folding bikes go a long way to solving the theft issue, but it's hard to make a folder that's also a decent electric.

I don't know about that--I've ridden around on a little old Prodeco Mariner, and it was good enough to handle anything I would have asked of a normal bicycle, though it was too heavy for me to carry like I would have a regular folder--to use it on a permanent basis I'd've had to do something like Brompton has, putting wheels/casters on the rear rack.

However, small/portable folding bikes don't make great cargo bikes, expecially heavy-duty ones which are one good way to completely replace a car.

See my CrazyBike2 and SB Cruiser threads for a couple of "extreme" cargo cycles, which while they're not something most people would use, but there are quite a few that could use them if they knew they existed and were willing to make the rest of the lifestyle changes needed to ditch the car and go with a cargo 'cycle. There's a few people I've talked to while riding those, especially the trike, who are definitely interested in the idea, but not yet willing to commit to the rest, even though I'm proof that owning/driving a car is not necessary; that I can do what I need to with just the trike or bike (and a trailer for occasional stuff that can't fit onboard).

Quite a few are interested in them as toys, entertainment, bragging rights, etc.,

Agreed, but I would argue that it's mostly due to ignorance. If people ever stopped to consider the heavy price they are paying in lost time, health, stress, and money, they might not be so fond of their cars.

I've talked to a fair number of people over the years, and while some *added* a bike to their transportation lineup, none have eliminated the car from it, or even used the bikes to do serious replacements of car trips. I think one couple did start using their bikes for a fair bit of local grocery trips, but I don't know that they are still doing that, nor did it replace even a minor amount of their car usage, relatively speaking. (or get them to get rid of any of their multiple cars).

Even the coworker I've loaned an ebike to only uses it for her work commute (less than 1/2 mile) sometimes, and when she goes home for lunch she drives her car back more often than she rides the bike back.

Another coworker I gave a pedal bike to (also living less than 1/2 mile away) used it until a car was available, then didn't use it anymore. Same thing with each other person I've given a bike to; only ones that didn't stop using the bike haven't got the option of a car yet.

I've offered bikes to others and they're unwilling to even try, even if it was electric and they wouldn't have to pedal at all. They'd rather walk, take the bus, or get rides from others in cars. A couple of them would rather spend money on taxis and uber/etc than ride a bike, even though they don't even make enough money to afford food or utilities all the time. :roll:



and I find myself instinctively starting to do things like drive on the sidewalk to get around jams before I stop myself.
Unfortunatley there's a fair number of drivers that will do that on purpose, even if the sidewalk is occupied. There's a lot of roadside murder marker sites around town from them.


I may be an oddball, but I suspect a significant chunk of the population would come around to that view if they had my experiences
I'd love that to be the case...but I doubt it. Until the whole process changes from a young age, I dont think people's POV will change.


I myself would probably be driving a car if it weren't for a set of circumstances back when I first had the chance to buy a used one from my first real job, once I'd moved up far enough after a few years. I bought an old Mustang from the year I was born, and a parts car came with it; I was going to rebuild them into one really nice car. But my mom's car died unfixably (too expensive) and there was no chance of getting her another anytime soon, and she had to drive to work every day (*she* wasn't a possible cyclist, and ebikes weren't evolved enough for that even if I'd heard of them). So she got my fixed-enough-to-drive car, and I kept using my pedal bike, and getting rides from her, etc.

More stuff (layoffs, back to square one pay-wise, mom having heart attacks and being unable to work, etc) happened over time, and I just never got out of bikes and into cars, mostly because of money (lack of it). By the time I finally could've just about afforded a car, I was just beginning to attempt to figure out DIY ebikes (DayGlo Avenger), and then the place I'd worked a dozen years for went out of business, and I was back to (below, actually) square one with money, so I just stuck with bikes; it'd already become my way of life.

Overall it's probably much better that I never got into car driving, financially--though using a bicycle for transport has actually cost me a few jobs, due to their (illegal?) bias against anyone that rides one instead of driving a car.
 
amberwolf said:
Almost no one I know that drives a car takes any costs other than the initial one into consideration when buying one. I suspect that is a fairly common attitude, and is why I did not bring any of that up, because the people that think that way are some of the ones that wouldn't buy a bike instead of a car.

That's part of the problem with our consumerist society in general--not considering the future costs of things. :/
Agreed, I think we're only disagreeing at the margins. I believe there's a glimmer of hope that at least a few US cities might become more like Amsterdam, but it's unlikely and will take a lot of time and effort. You don't appear to believe that is possible at all, and I can see why from the rest of your post.


This is the chicken and egg problem. Negative attitudes cause low ridership, leading to lack of education and advocacy, and lack of investment in bike infrastructure. This lack of investment means safety (and more importantly, perceived safety) does not improve feeding right back into negative attitudes and starting the loop over again.

Yeah, and that's why I pointed it out. It wont' change until it's forced to happen, and I don't know of a way to do that.
Adding even more population onto already-gridlocked road systems might force some people out of their cars. I can already get to a Financial District destination from where I live faster by walking than driving during rush hour. Even during off-peak times, it takes a minimum of 20 minutes to get into the downtown area by car before you even consider parking. With an Ebike I can do it in 10. If a city like LA thinks they can squeeze millions more people into the same space and still have everyone drive, the commute times will become so unbearable it will constitute a crisis.


Agreed on all points, although in an ideal world planners would recognize that the cost to provide adequate infrastructure for bikes is a small fraction of the cost to provide it for the same number of auto drivers and passengers.
The catch is getting them to provide it even though they don't see the need for it (yet), *and* getting them to see bikes as a primary transportation mode rather than an annoyance that carry undesirable people to their location.

(which can unfortunately be true in some areas--there's places I sometimes have to go where I won't stop to help a "fellow cyclist" because they are just as likely to hurt/rob/etc me as they are to accept help, especially when there is a group of them. At my workplace and places I shop for groceries at, a significant portion of the bike riders that come are thieves and not customers).
That's an unfortunate truth that I didn't think of. In the Bay Area when people think of cyclists they think of relatively wealthy people wearing lycra (and riding like morons). In most parts of the country they think of poor people cruising around looking for trouble.



Folding bikes go a long way to solving the theft issue, but it's hard to make a folder that's also a decent electric.

I don't know about that--I've ridden around on a little old Prodeco Mariner, and it was good enough to handle anything I would have asked of a normal bicycle, though it was too heavy for me to carry like I would have a regular folder--to use it on a permanent basis I'd've had to do something like Brompton has, putting wheels/casters on the rear rack.

However, small/portable folding bikes don't make great cargo bikes, expecially heavy-duty ones which are one good way to completely replace a car.

See my CrazyBike2 and SB Cruiser threads for a couple of "extreme" cargo cycles, which while they're not something most people would use, but there are quite a few that could use them if they knew they existed and were willing to make the rest of the lifestyle changes needed to ditch the car and go with a cargo 'cycle. There's a few people I've talked to while riding those, especially the trike, who are definitely interested in the idea, but not yet willing to commit to the rest, even though I'm proof that owning/driving a car is not necessary; that I can do what I need to with just the trike or bike (and a trailer for occasional stuff that can't fit onboard).

Quite a few are interested in them as toys, entertainment, bragging rights, etc.,
Don't get me wrong, the build I'm planning is a folder, but I had to do quite a bit of research about which folder to convert. Grabbing any old Dahon and expecting it to convert well could quickly turn into a nightmare.

Agreed, but I would argue that it's mostly due to ignorance. If people ever stopped to consider the heavy price they are paying in lost time, health, stress, and money, they might not be so fond of their cars.

I've talked to a fair number of people over the years, and while some *added* a bike to their transportation lineup, none have eliminated the car from it, or even used the bikes to do serious replacements of car trips. I think one couple did start using their bikes for a fair bit of local grocery trips, but I don't know that they are still doing that, nor did it replace even a minor amount of their car usage, relatively speaking. (or get them to get rid of any of their multiple cars).

Even the coworker I've loaned an ebike to only uses it for her work commute (less than 1/2 mile) sometimes, and when she goes home for lunch she drives her car back more often than she rides the bike back.

Another coworker I gave a pedal bike to (also living less than 1/2 mile away) used it until a car was available, then didn't use it anymore. Same thing with each other person I've given a bike to; only ones that didn't stop using the bike haven't got the option of a car yet.

I've offered bikes to others and they're unwilling to even try, even if it was electric and they wouldn't have to pedal at all. They'd rather walk, take the bus, or get rides from others in cars. A couple of them would rather spend money on taxis and uber/etc than ride a bike, even though they don't even make enough money to afford food or utilities all the time. :roll:
This is in Phoenix, right? I haven't been there myself, but a friend was living there last year and he said that the city is 100 x 100 miles in size. Combined with the summer heat, I would probably get a car if I were living there, too. I do think certain US cities are good candidates for widespread bike commuting, but places like Phoenix will probably never be among them.

and I find myself instinctively starting to do things like drive on the sidewalk to get around jams before I stop myself.
Unfortunatley there's a fair number of drivers that will do that on purpose, even if the sidewalk is occupied. There's a lot of roadside murder marker sites around town from them.
When I said "start to", I meant that my brain says "oh there's an opening, wait no I'm not on my bike". I'm not a maniac :)


I may be an oddball, but I suspect a significant chunk of the population would come around to that view if they had my experiences
I'd love that to be the case...but I doubt it. Until the whole process changes from a young age, I dont think people's POV will change.


I myself would probably be driving a car if it weren't for a set of circumstances back when I first had the chance to buy a used one from my first real job, once I'd moved up far enough after a few years. I bought an old Mustang from the year I was born, and a parts car came with it; I was going to rebuild them into one really nice car. But my mom's car died unfixably (too expensive) and there was no chance of getting her another anytime soon, and she had to drive to work every day (*she* wasn't a possible cyclist, and ebikes weren't evolved enough for that even if I'd heard of them). So she got my fixed-enough-to-drive car, and I kept using my pedal bike, and getting rides from her, etc.

More stuff (layoffs, back to square one pay-wise, mom having heart attacks and being unable to work, etc) happened over time, and I just never got out of bikes and into cars, mostly because of money (lack of it). By the time I finally could've just about afforded a car, I was just beginning to attempt to figure out DIY ebikes (DayGlo Avenger), and then the place I'd worked a dozen years for went out of business, and I was back to (below, actually) square one with money, so I just stuck with bikes; it'd already become my way of life.

Overall it's probably much better that I never got into car driving, financially--though using a bicycle for transport has actually cost me a few jobs, due to their (illegal?) bias against anyone that rides one instead of driving a car.
Wow, that's pretty bad! Here in the Bay, it's considered a novelty if someone uses a bike as primary transportation. The reaction is usually vaguely positive, although without any curiosity about doing it themselves. I used to bike every day to my old job in finance and no one looked down on me for it. They certainly didn't rescind the offer!

I'm not sure why I never caught the car culture bug. I did grow up in a spread-out suburban city where the only adults who rode bikes were ne'er do wells, neither of my parents rode for anything other than light recreation and they would drive the bikes to the start of the path, I got my driver's license at 16 and inherited my first clunker at 17. It's your typical American car addict story, and I didn't so much as sit in the saddle of a bike as an adult until I was in my late 20's. Yet on the 2 occasions when it no longer made sense to own my own vehicles, I gave them up without any hesitation and didn't miss them. In fact, I felt a tremendous sense of freedom. Now you could barely pay me enough to own another car.
 
In many nations bikes/ebikes/moped/scooters/motorcyles are more mainstream/common then 4 wheeled cars/trucks. This probably wont happen in places like the U.S. . The key is ebike manufacturers ATTEMPTING to make ebikes become more mainstream, by providing some of the features I mentioned below the $2000 price point. This type of mid priced mid performance ebike could be promoted as a means of travel/leisure/hobby to a whole new sector of consumers who wont get the performance they need from a $600 sondors ebike and don't want to spend $2000- $8000 for the top level ebikes that may do 35+ miles per hour , have all kinds of IPHONE APPS , pro suspension, 21 gears , etc.

I make these comments because in America, the average adult male weighs close to 200 lbs and IMHO, the sondors styled ebikes are not manufactured to deliver decent performance for that average weight class , providing a good range of distance or the ability to climb hilly roads , ride thru sand, dirt trails, gravel,. etc .

The sub $2000 mid range ebike, could be marketed to do all those things, along with being a reliable means for road riding to work, grocery store, post office, etc. Simply put, it would be a dual performance ebike that doesn't cost a arm and a leg, and will work great for people who weigh 100 - 260 lbs and want the ability to do 30-35 mph .

I think in less then 12 months, this type of ebike will be offered.

We are close to it now.....all that's needed is something like the RAD ROVER, to be offered/upgraded to 3 frame sizes, 1000 watt hub motor/ 500 watt mid drive, 48 volt/20 AH battery pack and 40 amp controller , shipped to your residence for $1900. I do not think geared rear hub motors are the best option for this offering . They are often very loud and more prone to issues with internal components { gears stripping , clutches slipping ,etc} . Keep it simple, reliable, sleek and clean and able to hit that 30-35 mph speed with standard 48 volt/ 20 AH capacity battery . The 36 volt/ 11 AH battery packs, seem to be a bit underpowered for the average adult who weighs close to 200 lbs and wants to ride on more then flat roads.

One other feature that may be a great idea, is to offer the hub motor to come from the factory, with air cooling holes pre drilled in the side covers. This really allows the motor to stay cooler and more efficient by letting the hot air escape the inside of the hub. I think its a better and cleaner option the trying to use ATF or oil or ferro fluid for cooling in a closed system , because the internal heat stays trapped inside the hub and adding the fluid adds weight. Air cooling holes are simple, and clean and very effective.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if the DIY market is saturated based on what I've seen; the e-commuters may increase incrementally, but it won't be because some new bike attracts them, rather conditions dictate a change. The bike shop owners that I know have the most optimism from the hope that e-MTBers (maybe roadies too) will adopt this platform as they "age out" and want to do the same rides as before. This will be a small, but profitable change.
 
2old said:
The bike shop owners that I know have the most optimism from the hope that e-MTBers (maybe roadies too) will adopt this platform as they "age out" and want to do the same rides as before. This will be a small, but profitable change.
Agreed there. All the bike stores here - from LBSes to Performance - now have some sort of ebike option.
 
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