18650 cell price over time and new 20700-21700 cells

[Philaphlous]

Man I wish there was a mobile version of the site...navigating isn't bad but typing a post is kinda a pain...Anyway...

So I built a 91 cell 48v 7p battery. I used the cheap laptop type Chinese cells and also there were a few higher grade LG and panasonic cells in the mix. With all my purchases I believe I ended up spending around $1.50/cell or maybe even a little less. The great part is even the elcheapo Chinese cell came out to be around 2000mah and we're around 46g in weight so I knew they weren't total crap. So here's to the meat of my post... What's been going on with the price of 18650 cells over time? Obviously the demand for them has greatly increased just over the past few years. Laptops have moved on to lipo pouch type cells and same with cell phones so that has probably been a little drop in demand. However ebike and cars have really increased the demand I'm sure...so what has happened to the price? I just find it a hard pill to swallow when I see higher grade brand name cells that are $2.50+per cell...it just seems really expensive to me but maybe I just haven't been around them enough to understand their price...

I also see Tesla is moving away from the 18650 cells to the new 20700 or now 21700 cell size...is this going to be the new 18650? Obviously this is going to take years to adopt and change all products to match this size of battery but how will the price compare?

I'm finding building battery packs to be extremely fun and I enjoyed building my 14ah pack. Few years down the road I would imagine I should be able to build the same pack with higher quality cells for a lower price...Hopefully right?

 

[wiredsim]

Historically price have been much higher for new cells. $2.50 a cell for high quality cells is quite a decent price. But to answer your last question, I don't forsee prices increasing, in fact just the opposite. Perhaps 21700 will become the new dominate form factor for motive applications. But I don't see 18650 dropping off a cliff, there are lots of factories tooled for that size yet. Overall industry prices for batteries are falling and have fallen dramatically and it's changing the world.

 

[spinningmagnets]

The expensive machines that make 18650 cells will not suddenly be parked out behind the factory to collect dust. The owners of the factory will drop the prices "just enough" to keep the production of 18650 cells up "just enough" that they are worth continuing to make them.

As those 18650 machines wear out, perhaps the factories will start replacing them with 21700 cell machines? It will not happen overnight, nor should it.

 

[Telemachus]

Historically price have been much higher for new cells. $2.50 a cell for high quality cells is quite a decent price. But to answer your last question, I don't forsee prices increasing, in fact just the opposite. Perhaps 21700 will become the new dominate form factor for motive applications. But I don't see 18650 dropping off a cliff, there are lots of factories tooled for that size yet. Overall industry prices for batteries are falling and have fallen dramatically and it's changing the world.

I'd be happy with $2.50 a cell.

What is a reputable source?

 

[rojitor]

Man I wish there was a mobile version of the site...navigating isn't bad but typing a post is kinda a pain...Anyway...

There was an app for this forum.... That was a dark age though. The forum was property of mr Trevor. He wanted to monetize the site....People started deleting all posts.... We are better like this.