A Brave New World

[Eclectic]

I woke this morning to the dawning of a new year. When I look outside, I can see a transportation revolution has taken place. Not just painted “Bicycle” lanes but roadways filled with light vehicles. Bikes, trikes, solowheels, velomobiles, microcars, skateboards and scooters. Some power assisted, some not, but all weighing less than 100 pounds and all going 10-20 mph. Full roadways with 2-3 lanes just for low cost, easy to maintain light vehicles. Protected lanes in the places where they have to share with the 3,000-5,000 pound vehicles that have gotten increasingly more complex and expensive; many with their new self-driving capabilities that only go 25 mph.

It seems that converting 25-35% of urban traffic to light vehicles has had a very positive effect. Ever since the Department of Transportation started subsidizing the conversion of under-used assets to be used by light vehicles, it took very little time for the new roadways to fill up. Especially since it was no longer just “bicycles”. With nobody going fast enough or weighing too much, there is no longer a need for operator proficiency tests or vehicle registration. No need for liability insurance because most accidents can be resolved with little more than a finger salute.

I know it’s just fantasy but is it a world you would like to see? eBikes in North America seem to be a gray area that are almost ignored by most politicians and law enforcement. Would you like to see everyone get infrastructure with some more attention on all light vehicles OR do you prefer to be part of a little tribe that currently gets ignored?

I myself believe that the benefits to all urban society outweighs the relative freedom I enjoy by being anonymous.

As long as the mentality is still about just “bicycles” being magical, there will never be a large scale conversion to alternative personal transportation. You can create as many bike lanes and mixed pedestrian/bike paths as you want but if I have to shower 3 times a day and consume an extra 500-1000 calories just to get to work, it ain’t gonna happen. On the other hand if I have an option that is 15-20% of the expense (of a car), safe, comfortable, takes the same amount of time and I don’t have to worry about daydreaming heavy vehicles and pedestrians, I’m in - along with (IMO) a lot of other people.

 

[arkmundi]

++1 - nice rant on New Years day, as we dream of a sustainable future and what that would look like.

 

[cruzin]

you can imagine it just as soon as batteries actually become affordable lol. as far as i can tell, once that happens then a lot more people will jump on board.

 

[Eclectic]

I think we need to quit begging to be accepted as bicycles and we need to be seen as an alternative form of personal transportation that includes human powered bikes and hybrid velomobiles alike. We shouldn't be asking to be accepted as bicycles, bicycles should be asking to be accepted as a light vehicle - just another form of alternative personal transportation.

If the goal is to convert vehicle miles traveled to some alternative, keeping bicycles as your champion will only work for a very small percentage of the population. We need alternatives that are acceptable to the masses.

If the infrastructure that I imagine showed up tomorrow, I think the roadways would fill up very fast.

 

[arkmundi]

you can imagine it just as soon as batteries actually become affordable lol. as far as i can tell, once that happens then a lot more people will jump on board.

Some where buried in my post history is a thread demonstrating that when you calculate the total lifetime cost of owning a car, and do the same for an eBike, that its vastly more affordable to do the latter, taking into account the cost of batteries. Its when you go car-free, as I have, that those savings are realized. Most people are not only addicted to oil, they're addicted to a way of life that's literally made around the car - all the roads and infrastructure. Look at the way our cities are built. So ya, I'm all for a revolution, and making a new year's resolution to do something more about that this year.

 

[wesnewell]

Liability insurance for my car cost $500 per year. My 888wh 10ah 88.8v battery pack cost $275 and I'm on my 3rd year and 10K miles with it. That seems pretty affordable to me. Cost to operate my ebike has been ~6 cents a mile over the last 3.5years. And that's total cost, including the bike and electricity. Cost per mile on my car has exceeded $1 per mile over the same time period. Gas alone is 12 cents per mile.

 

[cruzin]

and you assume that everyone who owns an electric bike also owns a car. not everyone makes a buttload of money. some people have kids and responsibilities more important than dumping a few hundred on a battery. theres so many circumstances that prevent people from enjoying electric vehicles mainly because of the cost.

once it becomes mainstream, and parts and accessories are affordable to ALL, then our world will prosper.

 

[Eclectic]

If the market was there, products would show up pretty quickly. For there to be a market, there needs to be acceptance that our vehicles can be operated safely and there needs to be infrastructure where we can operate safely.

 

[Dauntless]

Interesting fantasy, but too general. Allow me to add a specific one. People like Arlo should especially relate:

LA city high schools have some miserable graduation rates, sometimes just40% of the incoming freshmen will finish 4 years later. Don't know today's numbers, but in recent years the city average was 56% graduating onetime, 11% "Shortly afterward," the rest likely never. The county in general doesn't do much better.

So they have buses to take some of these kids from the worst neighborhoods to at least better. I've been involved in things such as electrothon builds; it goes well in better neighborhoods but some of these kids are horrified at hands on. Even just waxing. There's all these theories about why these kids learn, I just say the kids aren't sure why they would want to invest themselves in anything. They had paid vacations for some of these kids to go to Houston I think it was: Noone wanted to go because it was Easter vacation, the trip was just school.

In California we have what I believe is still the only statewide vocational training program. High school kids even get credit for ROP classes. 75% of the students are in high school, in classes including auto repair. Electric vehicle repair would count as a vocational class. But you won't find near enough Curries, etc., for them to fix so it would be best to have build some basic scooters, etc. there's always junk bikes available, especially if you have one of those hippie-bike-commune-coop thingees in town.

These are what education calls 'Carry away projects.' Or maybe ride away would be better. You might not need so many busses to run these kids to other schools. You might not need any, they might be learning how to go to school thru all this. Even your middle class families could do with a way for soccer moms to keep the minivan at home.

The only thing so outlandish about this is how practical it would be. You know how hard it is to get bureaucracy to go along with something that doesn't cause more problems than it solves. . . .

 

[arkmundi]

....In California we have what I believe is still the only statewide vocational training program. High school kids even get credit for ROP classes.

Massachusetts does. Remember, President Obama gave a graduation commencement address here in Worcester? It was at Worcester Technical High School, the number one rated school of its kind in the USA. We invest in education here big time.

75% of the students are in high school, in classes including auto repair. Electric vehicle repair would count as a vocational class. But you won't find near enough Curries, etc., for them to fix so it would be best to have build some basic scooters, etc.

When I went car-free, I donated my Ford Escape Hybrid to the school, so they'd have a vehicle like that to work on. They were of course ecstatic for the donation. What's the future of car repair? Hybrids, electric, high fuel efficiency standards. Would love to see them start to include eBikes. No need for donations - they will want to build one for themselves first.

there's always junk bikes available, especially if you have one of those hippie-bike-commune-coop thingees in town.

Well California may rank above Massachusetts in some respects, including having hippie-bike-commune-coop thingees and all sorts of other strange & weird amalgamations. :lol:

These are what education calls 'Carry away projects.' Or maybe ride away would be better. You might not need so many busses to run these kids to other schools. You might not need any, they might be learning how to go to school thru all this. Even your middle class families could do with a way for soccer moms to keep the minivan at home.

The only thing so outlandish about this is how practical it would be. You know how hard it is to get bureaucracy to go along with something that doesn't cause more problems than it solves. . . .

I've had it on my to-do list for some time, a visit to the WTHS to pitch the very idea. In fact when the school came visiting and get a a signed title to the Ford, I told them I was going car-free and they should really be teaching something about bike and eBike maintenance and repair, because it was going to be the future of personal transport. It should happen. It can happen. Will it? Haahahaaaaaa..... :lol:

 

[Dauntless]

hippie-bike-commune-coop thingees are popping up everywhere. If the People's Republic of California has more, it's only because the PRM is smaller.

That school is neat, but I don't think you understand what ROP is. I don't believe there is an auto shop, machine shop, welding shop, etc., that is not ROP around here. They hold classes on public and private high school campuses. There are regional centers off campus. Businesses even put on classes.

So the operator of the hippie-bike-commune-coop thingee, let's call him Punjab, (Good hippie spiritualist name) gets to teach a state funded (He makes $30+\hr.) bike repair class that high school kids get credit for on the strength of his experience whether he has a degree or not. Not at one special hard to create school but all over the state.

Tie this sophomore class together with a junior level electric vehicle repair class (Build as well as fix, right?) welding, machine shop, get them into algebra/geometry/trig/precalc, physics, etc., all high schools have these, this gives you an engineering academy at any high school you can get the wheels turning at.

There's already pieces of this in place, as well as academies that relate.

http://www.lasv.org/

http://www.facebook.com/LAAEngineering

Wikipedia, YouTube, these kids are everywhere. They come from an ordinary high school, except except in general kids seem a cut above in that area.

? . . .was going to be the future of personal transport. It should happen. It can happen. Will it? Haahahaaaaaa..... :lol:

Just as there should be more schools with this. . . .

 

[arkmundi]

So the operator of the hippie-bike-commune-coop thingee, let's call him Punjab, (Good hippie spiritualist name) gets to teach a state funded (He makes $30+\hr.) bike repair class that high school kids get credit for on the strength of his experience whether he has a degree or not.

So I've been thinking of another road trip and maybe the sunshine state has some offerings there of interest. One of my fantasies is having good anonymous sex on my eBike, like back when I was in high-school, in the back seat of my convertible. Maybe you could hook me up with Mayamai, BlessedLilly and Kalihooha at one of these hippie-bike-commune-coop thingees?

 

[Dauntless]

Well, none of my links to listings of locations are working. There's one in Santa Ana, some chance that Lotus Blossom hangs out there. Maybe you can ask about the others at a summer solstice event in June.

 

[Eclectic]

Maybe I was a little too vague. So a little more succinctly.

- Is converting Vehicle Miles from cars to Alternative forms of Personal Transportation a worthwhile cause?

- Is there currently a “Feel Good” political movement that pretends to embrace Alternative Transportation by creating small amounts of “Bicycle” infrastructure?

- Is it true that the current champion of that movement is the bicycle?

- Is it true that movement is doomed to fail because “Bicycles” do not have enough mass appeal to convert a significant amount of vehicle miles?

- Is it true that with current technology, there is a whole class of vehicles that can operate in that same performance safety zone that bicycles operate in?

- If all of the new infrastructure being created is for “Bicycles” only; is it true that this new class of vehicles could easily be prohibited from using that new infrastructure?

- While ebikes have many excellent attributes, is it true that because of deficiencies in comfort and convenience, ebikes still lack enough mass appeal to have significant impact?

- Is it true that wide spread mass appeal is going to require an enclosed vehicle (like a microcar or hybrid velomobile)?

- Is it true that Light Vehicles (or Micro Light Vehicles or whatever you want to call them) are impractical when mixed with heavy cars and trucks or pedestrians but would flourish in a segregated environment?

- Is it true that if significant infrastructure existed, urban society would flock to it because of the enormous cost savings benefits?

- If we gained both acceptance and infrastructure, is it true that “Light Vehicles” could have nearly as profound an impact on urban life in the 21st century as automobiles had on the 20th century?

 

[arkmundi]

The revolution is battery powered vehicles, its in full swing upwards and there is enough media attention to sustain. I was looking at the map of where Tesla has located showrooms and was astounded at how many of them there are and their spread. The message of the ES community is that there is an electric vehicle now available to suit everybody, that there is a range from the battery powered roller-skates, to the long-board, eBike, eTrike, enclosed eTrike like the Corbin, up to the Tesla & Nissan class of cars, Ford trucks, delivery vans, and buses. There is also a growing movement towards diesel/electric hybrid locomotives. Its a price/performance point that everyone would need to make for themselves.

The infrastructure (excepting long-distance charging stations) is there and getting better. The cities are the locale for the ongoing transition. I use roads, sidewalks and trails on my eBike. It could be better, what is called bike-friendly, also smart-growth. My city is committed to that and doing more every year. The really big change was when the city improved all its side-walks to have curb-less entries at the intersection with roads, so I need not slow down. I have yet to be pulled over or ticketed by the police for my fast electric-assist bike used on the roads and side-walks.

I'm waiting for some association to undertake a survey with some of your questions regarding acceptability and what it would take for wider adoption. People are just so used to their cars and the convenience of them, and the ability to take them anywhere without worry. I'm hoping that when Tesla completes it array of solar-electric charging stations, that they will let any electric vehicle in for a charge. It will go a long way, having that infrastructure.

 

[Voltron]

Sounds like time for everyone to watch "Americathon" (John Ritter) again...the first five or ten minutes movie are priceless visions...

 

[Eclectic]

I was hoping for some more debate on this idea.

The Tesla is wonderful transportation but when used in any practical manner, it is still a lethal weapon. Because of that, it requires a lot of regulation to help guarantee that it is operated in a safe manner most of the time.

While politics is slowly adopting alternative transportation, they seem to be basing it on 150 year old technology, the “Bicycle”. Using the “Bicycle” as the champion of the alternative transportation movement will result in a large investment with very little return because bicycles do not have enough mass appeal to have a large impact.

I don’t want to see more “Bike Lanes”; I want to see “Light Vehicle Lanes” (or Ultralight Vehicles or whatever you want to call them).

In the last few years, a lot of technology has appeared that allows other vehicles to operate in that same “safe zone” as bicycles. Politicians and planners need to acknowledge and understand that.

In order for “Bike Lanes” to be successful, it will require a lot people deciding to put in a lot of extra time and effort so that the rest of society will benefit.

In order for “Light Vehicle Lanes” to be successful, it will require a lot people deciding that commuting in a microcar will save them 75% of their commute cost.

Which scenario has a greater chance for success?

 

[arkmundi]

Its a curious idea. But it'll never happen, at least not here where I live. I have an electric-assist bicycle. In other words, its mostly a bicycle. And the assist is necessary, for my handicaps and the hills here. Our city is continuing on its relentless march towards being "bicycle friendly" is enough and achievable. Above my class, at 22 mph, are mopeds, motorcycles and the variety of light electric vehicles promoted here. Those will need to continue to share the road per the governing laws. The big question nobody has answered is what about gasoline tax, which funds maintenance & repair operations? I'd like to see that replaced with a carbon-tax and vehicle-tax (aka excise) that provides incentives for LEV and disincentives for the ICE'rs. I'm thinking that could be by weight of the vehicle, so when people get smart, they progressively get lighter & lighter. In the meantime, there is also a carbon-tax, since in a democracy, the polluters should pay.

 

[Eclectic]

Actually there is some precedence for what I am talking about. It is the Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV). Unfortunately it has not had very much impact because it missed the mark. 3,000 lbs gross vehicle weight @ 25 mph which is potentially still a lethal weapon. It also required an NEV to share the infrastructure with cars and trucks. Other than a slight decrease in purchase and operating costs, there is very little incentive (of course there is always my sense of duty and sacrifice for the good of the rest of society) to use an NEV for my commute. Basically I would only piss off any other driver on the road and I doubt if I could find a commute route that would be allowed by the regulation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle

If the US DOT were to define a new class of ultralight vehicles and provide some type of incentive (subsidies) to convert under-used current assets to ultralight use, the financial benefits to the individual would tend to drive the movement. Not sticks, just carrots.

PS - "arkmundi" - thanks for the debate

 

[Chalo]

and you assume that everyone who owns an electric bike also owns a car. not everyone makes a buttload of money. some people have kids and responsibilities more important than dumping a few hundred on a battery. theres so many circumstances that prevent people from enjoying electric vehicles mainly because of the cost.

once it becomes mainstream, and parts and accessories are affordable to ALL, then our world will prosper.

In the bike business I see this kind of misplaced priorities again and again. People who without a second thought spend $5k or more every year on their cars, but to whom a $1000 bike that lasts indefinitely is an extravagant luxury.

They should probably take a moment to look into the cost of atherosclerosis or diabetes brought on by physical inactivity, and how else those things might affect their kids and responsibilities.

Fortunately, in my neighborhood there are quite a few folks opting for "expensive" central city rent and "expensive" bikes, which they can afford because they stop spending on cars.

 

[USAEBIKECO]

Cities keep adding more and more bike lanes. So that's a good thing.

In Chicago along Milwaukee Avenue its become a virtual bicycle highway from 3-6pm. There is a bike lane, and only 1 lane for cars. You can see dozens and dozens of people commuting home on bicycle. It's pretty cool.

Every year I notice more cyclists commuting by bike. Still not many ebikes though.

 

[Dauntless]

I guess the priorities get misplaced because they know they'll drive the car and probably not ride the bike. I know people who depend on bikes that only want a cheap bike because even those are stolen, one guy lost 2 in one year. There's huge problems in a bicycle future people don't consider.

". . . . a growing movement towards diesel/electric hybrid locomotives?" Do you know how long it's been since most locomotives WEREN'T a diesel/electric hybrid? There are batteries being added to operate on electricity in places they don't want the diesel engines running, such as NY City. Fulltime electric trains face the same obstacles to full practicality as any other electric, each obstacle being as big or bigger for trains.

The governments resist these light powered vehicles. Cities that won't let you have the electric bikes, states that downgrade them. And look what the GEM weighs. It'll require statewide ballot initiatives to FORCE the legalization of practical light vehicles. I remember when the Segway was going to be faster that it turned out to be once the laws were in place.

You just have to remember that if you search for this single solution, you won't find it. There's been a "Feel Good" political movement toward bicycles for nearly 50 years, you can see how far that has taken us. If there was some "Infrastructure" that made them more attractive, it would take more than saving money to bring people on board in numbers. Witness the $1,000 bike discussion.

But you never know what people will say to paint a rosy picture.

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8525/8623497036_0aeac7e167_o.jpg

 

[Eclectic]

If the goal is to convert vehicle miles from cars and trucks to a less dangerous forms of transportation, I don't think bicycles are the only answer. We have been playing with that solution for 50 years and it has worked out about as well as putting people in jail for smoking pot. I am sure that it has saved a few lives and I appreciate it because I am one of the few who are willing to make the sacrifices needed to ride a bike (assisted or not). The problem is, it still requires sacrifice and has very little immediate benefits (other than future health and the good it does for others).

If you want mass acceptance, it will require Safety, Comfort and Convenience (and Security? after thinking more about Dauntless's comment, that probably belongs in the list). Segregated infrastructure is the only way to increase safety (at least that I can think of...any other ideas?). Unfortunately bikes do not score high on comfort and convenience. For that, it will have to be something enclosed and comfortable. The problem with something like a microcar, it is even less safe than a bike when mixed with cars and trucks (or pedestrians) - it has to have segregated roadways.

Solowheels, Go-Peds and eBoards are great "Last Mile" solutions for mass transit systems but become dangerous when mixed with cars or pedestrians. They belong on that same segregated roadway.

10 years ago, these alternative modes of transport were not really practical, but they are today. Building more "Bicycle" lanes is like building more phone booths. With the current technology, it doesn't make sense.

If there was Acceptance and Infrastructure (real roadways for ultralight vehicles), I believe that people would flock to it if they had the option of a simple, easy to maintain microcar:
<100 lbs vehicle weight
20-25 mph speed limit
30-40 mile range
Enclosed - protected from the elements
$3,500-$5,000 cost

I believe that expense benefits for individuals would drive the movement if they are given Safety, Comfort and Convenience.

 

[wesnewell]

I'd love to see these available here, but not with lead batteries. I'd buy one in a heartbeat.
http://greenauto.en.alibaba.com/product/306767069-209282644/Electric_Tricycle_With_Hub_Motor.html
http://greenauto.en.alibaba.com/product/208618006-209282644/Electric_Car_SH8500Z.html

 

[Chalo]

Those three-wheeled microcars probably use their heavy batteries as ballast to help keep them from overturning in corners.