Battery Improvements=EV's poised to take over (3-10 years)?

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Nissan thinks 180 mile range will do it by about 2015:
http://electric-vehicles-cars-bikes.blogspot.com/2010/05/nissan-say-leaf-ev-battery-pack-cost.html

Nissan say they have been working on EV batteries for the past 18 years and are currently working on a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathode based battery that they expect to be fitting to Leaf EVs by 2015. With double the energy density of current cells, they will give the Leaf 200 miles range on a single charge.

Nissan expect this range combined with the money savings on EV running costs will 'tip' the market the same way the European market for Diesel cars 'tipped' 15 years ago.

Martin Eberhard (VW) thinks a 500 mile range will do it by about 2020:
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/1...icts-500-mile-range-for-the-electric-vehicle/

Martin Eberhard predicts 500-mile range for the electric vehicles of 2020

The guy who helped bring us the 250-mile electric vehicle (EV) thinks we will be able to go a lot further on a full pack of batteries in ten years. Yes, Martin Eberhard, one of the co-founders of Tesla Motors who is now working with Volkswagen, is predicting that EVs will have plenty of range at affordable price points not all that far into the future. Eberhard spoke with Autocar recently and said something that should put a bit of fear into vehicle charging station companies and people who still fight against plug-in vehicles:

At the current rate of progress, I'd say we will have banished the range anxiety problem, and will be making EVs with greater than 500 miles of operational range, within 10 years. At that point, the further development of fast charging infrastructure won't be so important - because how often do you drive more than 500 miles in a day?

Eberhard also confirmed the rumor that the battery packs he's helping develop for the Blue-e-motion Golf, the E-Up! and the Audi e-tron are all "exclusively" using 18650-type (i.e., laptop size) li-ion cells. The reason is that:

Because 18650 cells are at the leading edge of battery development, and by using them we can benefit from state-of-the-art technology straight away. Put simply, 18650s develop faster than any other kind of battery because there's more demand for them; the industry is already making two billion of them a year.

In fact, development is so fast that the original e-tron concept had a range of 150 miles. Now, with newer 18650 cells that are about to arrive at VW, range will be doubled to 300 miles. Cost is a big factor, too, and Eberhard said that the latest cells offer a price point of 200 euros ($255 U.S. at today's exchange rates) per kWh.

I don't think a tipping point requires a 500 mile range. I don't know if its a tipping point but I think a 200 mile range at $200 per kWh (which Nissan could hit in 2015) would be pretty compelling. I think a 300 mile range is sufficient depending on cost. A 300 mile range with a pack cost of $100 per kWh would definitely (IMO) do it.

More info on Eberhard and VW 18650 pack development is here (Eberhard taking out Tesla?):
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/vws-martin-eberhard-promises-500-mile-range-evs-by-2020/

VW’s Martin Eberhard Promises 500 Mile Range EVs By 2020

Not long ago, we explored the possibility of Audi taking out Tesla with its forthcoming brace of e-Tron electric sportscars. What we didn’t realize fully at the time, is how directly VW is going after Tesla. At a recent visit to Volkswagen’s Silicon Valley Electronic Research Lab though, I was shown the slide above, which represents the battery packs for the forthcoming e-Tron and e-Up EVs… and it suddenly hit me that Tesla founder Martin Eberhard was applying Tesla’s multi-cell strategy at Volkswagen, essentially duplicating Tesla’s work with the backing of a major OEM. Now, Eberhard is talking to Autocar, and he says that his Tesla-style multi-cell powerpacks could offer 500 miles of pure electric range within ten years. If he’s right, the other OEMs who are focusing on prismatic Li-ion cells are in for a rude surprise… and Tesla had better start making some progress.

Tesla’s major technological innovation comes down to the idea of massing numerous “18650″ cells in a temperature-controlled battery pack. Though many dismissed the strategy when only Tesla was working on it, Volkswagen is clearly now a believer in the approach, and they’ve got a good case for it. The main arguments for 18650 cells are that they are the most common cell type, new chemistries always debut in the 18650 format, they offer the lowest price and highest energy density, and offer the most flexibility in terms of packaging.

VW also argues that redundancies allow the multi-cell design to offer more reliability and safety… although cost is likely to have been a major issue as well. But perhaps the most important issue is the scaleability and flexibility of the 18650 approach. VW gave us a picture of the kind of progress they’re able to achieve by simply plugging new 18650s into the existing battery pack design:

Clearly progress is being made, but Eberhard’s warning that a mature electric vehicle won’t be ready until 2020 should be well-heeded. It’s not a great sign that Tesla’s founder is warning that we’re ten years away from EV maturity while his former firm is rushing an EV sedan to market in the next two years. But the real challenge of VW’s gamble on Eberhard is to the Nissans, GMs and other firms jumping onto the prismatic Li-ion cell bandwagon. VW has made a bold gamble by betting on a cell strategy that other major OEMs were content to dismiss as Silicon Valley vapor. If an affordable 500-mile EV comes out of it, fortune will have truly favored the bold.

 

[dogman dan]

Seems to me like the tipping point is more related to the cost. 50 mile range is pretty expensive now, so imagine 500 mile range's cost. Why buy that kind of range if you don't need it? I can see cars with 150 mile range for sure though, and maybe a trailer with more you can rent for the vacation.

 

[liveforphysics]

I like all the different lies and excuses they give for using 18650.

They should just be honest and say, "hey, we know it doesn't make any sense from a design perspective, but its the cheapest!" Lol.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Seems to me like the tipping point is more related to the cost....

I can see cars with 150 mile range for sure though, and maybe a trailer with more you can rent for the vacation.

I agree that cost is the main issue but range is important also and the two factors are related. I think 50kWh pack at about $200 per kWh is going to be close to a tipping point. According to Nissan that would be about 200 miles but with some hills, AC or heat and some age on the pack it could be less than 100 miles. Also if the price comes down far enough a 500 mile range would be great.

I like all the different lies and excuses they give for using 18650.

They should just be honest and say, "hey, we know it doesn't make any sense from a design perspective, but its the cheapest!" Lol.

I agree (mostly):

I think the last four reasons above are all very important (the cheapest solution is crucial). Also the availability of a wider range of cells to choose from.

With their buying power VW could get Prismatic Cells in any chemistry/physical size/and capacity made to order but that costs money and takes time. The ability to plug in virtually any 18650 cell (obtained at a low price), and set the charging and LVC and cooling/heating parameters to an existing pack design is a big advantage.

 

[veloman]

I think that with every electric car sold, there should be an economical option of PV or wind turbine charging system. That would cancel out much of the negativity associated with EVs.

I'm about to start working on my home built wind turbine with a scooter motor and also PV panels. Lots to learn!, Should be fun!

 

[dnmun]

i wish everyone would be building a charging spot for people to use who have an EV. the charging spots need to be ubiquitous and not just restricted to the owner's garage.

nissan and the people they hired to manage the buildout of the charging spots have got it all wrong.

PGE just had the guvner unveil their high current DC charging station which they allow free charging, but $3 for parking in their corporate big world plaza parking garage, but it is right downtown.

i think it is 30-40kW charger. it would help so much if there were similar chargers, maybe even just 8-10kW, available everywhere. as in every neighborhood and small town across the country.

the guys in southern california who follow the evchargernews. com all are on a list and share out their own charging spots with other EV owners on the list. and they monitor the status of all of them and especially the public charging spots.

that is how it has to work, battery size is just a guy hangup. like the need for speed in an EV or the other flash trash.

shared charging spots is the only way to allow freedom of movement in an EV.

they could create tax incentives for people to provide a charging spot at their home. if the use was shared. its the only way.

 

[veloman]

Yeah, there is this thing that the typical consumer wants a 120mph car, even though they will never go that fast. They just like the idea that they know they can if they want or need to. (As if they'll be able to go that fast when everyone else where they live is fleeing an incoming hurricane or some doomsday disaster). People live in a fantasy world, they live on emotion. Commuting is about practicality, not drag racing from stop lights or driving across the country. EVs would be fine for the majority of drivers.

 

[Evoforce]

Yea, I want to know the speed is at my fingertips!

 

[deronmoped]

Don't forget about the oil industry, they will bring out the 100 MPG carburetor they buried the design of, just to keep E-cars off the market so they can sell their oil.

Deron.

 

[torker]

I still think 4000 damn cells is a screwy way to do it. I like something with 12+ volts per cell that is robust.
A cheap 100 mi. range ride would do all our families commuting etc.
Any time you start traveling though 500 mi. range is not going to be enough unless you can plug into 220v @50amps all over the place. Too bad batteries all age or you could just have the battery drop out from under the car and swap it out like an rc I guess you could pay accordingly- I can rent you this 100 mi. runt over here for 5 bucks

 

[cell_man]

There is swings and roundabouts for whatever cell format is decided upon. I can see that there are real advantages to using a very high number of cells. With this approach the failure of a small proportion will not have a big impact on the battery pack performance, They don't generally fail as a short, they generally just loose capacity and stop contributing to the packs performance. Small cylindrical cells can be quite easily cooled. Cylindrical cells have there own containment system, so the pack is not so difficult to implement. Large format pouch cells also have there own set of advantages, but I can see that the approach above could be a cheaper option and when it comes down to it, most people don't like to spend more money than the have to...

 

[patrickza]

I quite like the way tesla deals with the 18650 cells. Grouping them into bricks, and then using each brick as a single cell is very neat IMO.

I'd love to see someone design an 18650 cell holder for electric vehicle use. I think a plastic brick type structure with 64 cells in an 8x8 structure would really work well for home EV builders. Using konions that would give you about 100AH in a very practical package. Also yYou could design your vehicle, have the bricks fitted into place, and then leave the cells till right at the end of the project when you just pop them into the bricks. That way you can get the latest cell chemistry, and hopefully the best prices. Also when your cells eventually die, it's just a matter of refilling the bricks. Ideally the bricks would be interlocking, and have a +ve, -'ve and BMS attachment terminal. I can't imagine anything simpler or more practical.

Come on, someone start working on some plastic bricks for me please!

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

I quite like the way tesla deals with the 18650 cells...

I'd love to see someone design an 18650 cell holder for electric vehicle use. I think a plastic brick type structure with 64 cells in an 8x8 structure would really work well for home EV builders. Using konions that would give you about 100AH in a very practical package. Also yYou could design your vehicle, have the bricks fitted into place, and then leave the cells till right at the end of the project when you just pop them into the bricks. That way you can get the latest cell chemistry, and hopefully the best prices. Also when your cells eventually die, it's just a matter of refilling the bricks.

Physically holding the cells is the easy part. The Tesla pack pack has liquid cooling and I'm sure they control the cell capacity, probably to something like 90%/10%. Part of being able to easily accommodate different cell chemistries is being able to easily change the various figures. I bet they can just change the relevant parameters (including temperature) and recompile their software.

 

[liveforphysics]

Hi,

I quite like the way tesla deals with the 18650 cells...

I'd love to see someone design an 18650 cell holder for electric vehicle use. I think a plastic brick type structure with 64 cells in an 8x8 structure would really work well for home EV builders. Using konions that would give you about 100AH in a very practical package. Also yYou could design your vehicle, have the bricks fitted into place, and then leave the cells till right at the end of the project when you just pop them into the bricks. That way you can get the latest cell chemistry, and hopefully the best prices. Also when your cells eventually die, it's just a matter of refilling the bricks.

Physically holding the cells is the easy part. The Tesla pack pack has liquid cooling and I'm sure they control the cell capacity, probably to something like 90%/10%. Part of being able to easily accommodate different cell chemistries is being able to easily change the various figures. I bet they can just change the relevant parameters (including temperature) and recompile their software.

Yep. Much like Method's BMS, it can be as simple as telling it the new desired HVC/LVC voltages, and cell capacity to re-configure a proper digital BMS.

However, the advantages in swapping cell types etc are NOT inherent to 18650 cells... They are only used because it's the absolutely cheapest option to store energy short of lead. No reason an improvement in cell chemistry/design can't equally be applied to larger format cells. This 18650 cell use absurdity is a cost driven factor alone, because zillions of these cells get used in almost every sort of non-size-critical modern portable electroincs device from a sex-toy to a laptop.

Emerging EV production is creating a new niche in the market for quality large format Lithium cells. Currently, low production volumes keep it cost prohibitive (perticularly in a product where >50% of the parts cost of the vehicle is the battery) to change to something that increases battery cost. Once large format production volumes increase, we will never see these absurd 18650 pack creations in EV use again, and good riddance.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi Luke,

They are only used because it's the absolutely cheapest option to store energy short of lead. No reason an improvement in cell chemistry/design can't equally be applied to larger format cells. This 18650 cell use absurdity is a cost driven factor alone, because zillions of these cells get used in almost every sort of non-size-critical modern portable electroincs device from a sex-toy to a laptop.

I don't agree that its only cost:

Every cell chemistry is available in the 18650
Newest battery innovations go in 18650's first

Its not only cost but the wide variety/cutting edge chemistries that are available in 18650 cells. Of course they could be made available in larger format cells but realistically when is it going to happen?

However, the advantages in swapping cell types etc are NOT inherent to 18650 cells...

Yep. Much like Method's BMS, it can be as simple as telling it the new desired HVC/LVC voltages, and cell capacity to re-configure a proper digital BMS.

The advantage isn't inherent to 18650 cells but it is inherent in a standardized form factor. If Tesla built a pack with 18650 A123 cells they could swap them for any other brand/chemistry, plug them into their pack and change BMS parameters and its done. For that to work seamlessly with packs built with A123 prismatic cells would require a standardized prismatic cell form factor that is universally (or at least widely) adopted.