Better MPG, How Good Is Good Enough?

[DrkAngel]

65% of US used oil-gas is imported. Minimal target saving should be 65%, to be effective!

A motorcycle might provide 40 - 60% saving, still short of target, unless you go riding with a buddy, then you're using more than a car.

Gas motor assisted bikes, scooters too, typically advertise between 100 -150 mpg, a 66.7 - 80% saving, well within target. If all traffic could match, this would be ideal. Unfortunately, trains, buses, trucks etc. have no possibility of similar compliance, putting a much higher burden on personal transport.

Let's view a worst case scenario of a complete cut off of oil imports!
Possibly 50% of gas-oil is used by essential services, trains, trucking, buses, public transport etc., if necessary a 20% decrease, of these services, might be feasible on an immediate basis. Unfortunately, that leaves only 10% of usual for all personal transport! That translates to requiring 250 - 300 mpg as opposed to a present 25 - 30 mpg! ... ???


Instead of, a typical, 10 gallons of gas per week, at $4 per gallon, the average family might be rationed 1 gallon per week, at $40 per gallon.

Electric powered vehicles are the sole, for the foreseeable future, possible solution. At present the main obstacle is the cost of electric storage - efficient batteries. Ebikes are the ideal testbed for research and development - "The first tentative step towards energy independence." When demand requires mass production, this cost will drop dramatically, and noticeable progress will occur!

 

[dnmun]

that is not the worst case. that is considered the most likely outcome of the current consumption patterns when ghawar goes past the 90% water cut. they are now starting up CO2 injection trials in one section of the 4 great fields that make up the bulk of saudi reserves.

worst case will be that these yahoos still all drive the one ton trucks when shit hits the fan in a few years. most of us who follow this business think the $146 in '08 was just the wake up call and the recession in between has just put off the day of reckoning for a few years at most. expect $140 for sure this year, but anything is possible if a shia uprising in saudi and kuwait leads to civil war in iraq as we leave, drawing the iranians and the saudis into a full scale war. i consider that in the 15% category myself.

 

[neptronix]

Mm.. your metrics are a little bizarre to understand.
And the only problem with oil is not just the fact that we import it obviously.

At present the main obstacle is the cost of electric storage - efficient batteries.

You mean to say, better whr/kg .. or in our case, better watt hour per gram

 

[bkwilless]

During the oil embargo back in the 70's Brazil started their ethenol program. The problem with ethenol is to creat new farms and not use existing as this will drive up the price of corn, sugar, etc.

When Brazil did this it scared OPEC. When they broke the embargo one guy began the meeting with this paraphrased quote "The stone age did not end because they ran out of stones!"

Here gas is (if using US dollars to buy) $9.40 per gallon!!!!

 

[DrkAngel]

Mm.. your metrics are a little bizarre to understand.
And the only problem with oil is not just the fact that we import it obviously.

At present the main obstacle is the cost of electric storage - efficient batteries.

You mean to say, better whr/kg .. or in our case, better watt hour per gram

Batteries, to compete with a gas tank range of 300 miles, might cost about $15,000-$20,000!
As production increases:
Battery cost is expected to decrease at 10% per year, and ... efficiency, (capacity), is projected, to increase by 70% over the next 10 years.
- Based on projected deployment of Lithium based technology.

 

[dnmun]

there is no reason a battery pack has to provide 300 miles range. that is just the ICE manufacturing crowd trying to frame the EV story to their own agenda and to frighten people with the 'range anxiety' that they have introduced.

the solution will be an extensive network of charging spots. shared charging and i would expect shared EV usage also. why does everyone need their own car to begin with?

the cost is not going back down since the cost of energy to produce the materials is going up with the cost of crude oil.

except for the patent costs, the battery costs are not likely to ever be lower than now. i would expect the commodities to cost a lot more as we enter this new age of $140/bbl crude. especially at the start of lithium harvesting since the production base is still small and controlled mainly by chinese and mongolian miners.

 

[DrkAngel]

Lithium-ion 18650 cells are constantly increasing in capacity, and decreasing in price!
(The most common form, used in notebooks and some eVehicles- Tesla etc.)

10 years ago, a single 1400mah cell cost me $12, now I can purchase 2800mah cells, for less than $2 each! Down from $4, 2 years ago! Battery capacity, per $1 has increased 1200%, adding inflation, closer to 2000%.

Capacities of 4000mah are available, but not the best buy at $/mwh.

 

[DrkAngel]

Even better price on 18650 Li-ion batteries!
Just ordered up a test batch of 3800mah, for less than $2 each, shipping included!
That is only $145 per kwh!

Just getting an initial lot of 10, for testing purposes, consistency, reliability, actual capacity, "C" rating etc.

 

[neptronix]

Even better price on 18650 Li-ion batteries!
Just ordered up a test batch of 3800mah, for less than $2 each, shipping included!
That is only $145 per kwh!

Just getting an initial lot of 10, for testing purposes, consistency, reliability, actual capacity, "C" rating etc.

Um, where are you getting these from?

That is less than 1/2 the cost of lipo batteries, and i have a hard time concieving that anything could be cheaper than lipo right now.

 

[DrkAngel]

Even better price on 18650 Li-ion batteries!
Just ordered up a test batch of 3800mah, for less than $2 each, shipping included!
That is only $145 per kwh!

Just getting an initial lot of 10, for testing purposes, consistency, reliability, actual capacity, "C" rating etc.

Um, where are you getting these from?

That is less than 1/2 the cost of lipo batteries, and i have a hard time concieving that anything could be cheaper than lipo right now.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250785718953&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

"** Large Quantity ** of UltraFire 18650 3800mAh Rechargeable Battery are available to purchase.
Please check out other Quantity items on sale.
If you do not see the "Quantity" you need. Please contact us and we can open an auction for you to buy.
More Quantity, More Discount!"

Price per 100 is noticeably more, due to:
Weight limitations of air mail?
Li-ion shipping safety regulations?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=310302542355&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

I have tested, lower capacity, UltraFire 18650's, previously, and found them to be of reasonable quality and to be "rated" responsibly.

I would recommend purchasing a limited quantity, and testing before committing to, large scale, purchases.

I will, of course, post my test results as soon as possible ...

 

[fechter]

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250785718953&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

"** Large Quantity ** of UltraFire 18650 3800mAh Rechargeable Battery are available to purchase.
Please check out other Quantity items on sale.
If you do not see the "Quantity" you need. Please contact us and we can open an auction for you to buy.
More Quantity, More Discount!"

UltraFire? They could have chosen a better name. Immediately brings to mind videos of flaming laptop packs.

Making a large pack out of 18650 cells is a lot of work, so negates some of the cost savings compared to larger cell sizes. I think eventually the larger format cells will come down in price too. Li-Mn chemistries are a good middle ground between the Co-based cells and Lipo from a performance standpoint and have much improved safety.