CreditSuisseGivesPoint-By-PointBreakdownWhy(Tesla)EV'sBetter

[MitchJi]

Hi,

http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-suisse-on-tesla-2014-8

Credit Suisse Gives Point-By-Point Breakdown Why Tesla Is Better Than Your Regular Car

Tesla is up 73% this year as the Palo Alto-based automaker continues to stoke expectations that they are on their way to becoming a mainstream automaker.

Credit Suisse's Dan Galves and Shreyas Patil are not about to get in their way.

In a note Thursday announcing they had begun covering the firm with an "outperform" rating, meaning it will outperform a benchmark indicator, the pair say that the fight between electric vehicles and international combustion engines "will not be a fair" one.

And Tesla's Model S has already proven it.

"We believe that Tesla has already proven that EV’s are inherently better, although most industry observers, and certainly the general public, don’t know it yet," they say. "It’s almost inconceivable that a new automaker’s first offering would be called 'one of the best vehicles in the world' by many reputable auto reviewers, unless the base technology was just better."

The pair proceed to give a point-by-point breakdown of why a Tesla vehicle is superior to your gas guzzler:

The Model S can reach power instantly because electric motors lack internal combustion engines' (ICE) torque curves, which is what you experience when an engine is revving. The Model S can go from 0-60 mph in 4.2-5.9 seconds, and has no transmission gearing.

ICEs have a higher center of gravity compared to an EV's because of their engines, and thus do not handle as well. EVs are also more conducive to all-wheel drive as there's more room to put a drive unit.
EVs are roomier, again because there are fewer overall parts. "A Tesla powertrain (i.e. battery, motor, power electronics, charger) has 18 moving parts," they write. "An ICE powertrain (i.e. engine, transmission, drivetrain) has hundreds, maybe thousands." The Model S lists itself as a 7-passenger car.

And because there are fewer parts, an EV enjoys lower maintenance costs.
Internal combustion engines now face "very challenging" fuel economy regulations, and a diffuse set of manufacturing needs
Perhaps most critically, Galves andPatil calculate that a Model S user will end up spending just $34 a month on fuel costs, compared with up to $175 a month for a mid-size luxury sedan. That translates to between $1,400 and $2,500 a year in fuel cost savings.

And while the prices of a Tesla is typically $15,000 more than the average luxury sedan, once Tesla's Gigafactory begins pumping out lithium ion batteries, costs will come down. Meanwhile, the cost of ICE powertrains will rise as a result of stricter fuel economy regs.

Tesla's Gigafactory could result in a Model S and Model X base battery cost in the $10,000 to $11,000 range while the upcoming Model 3 battery could cost around $7,500. At that point, “Tesla is in the range of cost parity to Internal Combustion vehicles.”

The last remaining disadvantage is range. But this too is only a temporary limitation, as Tesla's supercharger network continues to expand.

Galves and Patil say they are already bearish on Ford and GM as companies thanks to structurally sagging U.S. auto demand. Tesla should thus be able to jump into the breach.

"If Tesla can get to cost parity with an inherently better product, they will maintain the pricing power they currently enjoy," they conclude. "And the $1,400 - $2,500 / year fuel savings vs ICE’s can drop to margin or be used to drive share. If Tesla can charge a $3k-$4k price premium to ICE’s, that’s 5+ points of margin on a $40k-$80k average vehicle price. It won’t be a fair fight."

Credit Suisse has a $325 price target on Tesla. Tesla shares were trading at $261 Thursday.

 

[dnmun]

i saw a tesla model S on my street with oklahoma license plates!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

maybe it got towed here, maybe not.

 

[Joseph C.]

Someone posted on Tesla Motors Club a section of the Credit Suisse report that gives a breakdown of battery costs and future projections.

• Apparently, Tesla and Pansonic already have a 275 watt hour per kg battery ready to go.
  
  For the 60 KW/hr pack they estimate the current costs per KW/hr are $150 for the raw cells and $7,500 for packaging giving the total cost to be $18,500 or $275 per KW/hr for the finished pack.
  
  With the Gigafactory open and improved technology they expect the raw cells to be $78 per KW/hr, packaging $6,000 and the finished 60 KW/hr pack to be $10,300 or $181 per KW/hr.
  
  They expect a 40 KW/hr Model III pack to cost just over $7,500.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/34833-Credit-Suisse-Report-and-10-percent-more-energy-per-cell/page2?p=734498&viewfull=1#post734498

Those figures really are outstanding. You could easily envisage them building a less technologically challenging home storage pack for $100 per KW/hr and perhaps charging the end consumer $200 per KW/hr after margins, transport and installation is taken into account. If they can offer a 10KW/hr pack for $2k that will be a game changer for renewables.

The only problem is scale. Terawatt hours of batteries will be needed not gigawatt hours. We need 1,000 times the output of the proposed gigafactory for a period of several decades.

The world's total annual energy production is estimated at 200 petawatt hours. Divide that in half for the increased efficiencies of electric battery storage over fossil fuel inefficiencies and you get 100 petawatt hours, go with the EU goal of 30 days energy supply and you get just under 16 petawatt hours of battery storage.

We have at most four to five decades of oil left before the energy return on energy invested ratio starts to hit negative figures.

Lithium reserves though could be a problem. According to Wikipedia yearly production is 36 gigagrams while the world's reserves are estimated at 13 teragrams.
I believe that Musk said that the NCA chemistry is four per cent lithium so at 275 watt hours per kg that works out at 14.5 grams per KW/hr.

Hopefully, I did this correctly but I get 232 teragrams of lithium for 16 petawatt/hours of NCA lithium batteries. I hasten to add that this is a perfect number with 100 per cent efficiency - no waste. All of which leaves a serious problem. Even if we go with only three days of battery storage 1.6 petawatt hours of batteries would require more than the entire world lithium reserves.

I hope countries and regions apart from Europe are working on ultra high voltage DC connectors because virtual grid storage won't work without them.

 

[Hillhater]

Jeezzz !
I am as much a Tesla admirer as the next EV guy, but boy, is there some "Fan boy" crap in that release !

The Model S can reach power instantly because electric motors lack internal combustion engines' (ICE) torque curves, which is what you experience when an engine is revving. The Model S can go from 0-60 mph in 4.2-5.9 seconds, and has no transmission gearing.

Instant torque... true, but exactly what "advantage" is that beyond street racing ?. likely of no interest to 99% of drivers.
But the limited top speed may be of concern also to those budding street racers ! ( why wasnt it mentioned ?)
They havnt even got the data correct for the 0-60 !
And it does have transmission gearing ..a~~ 9:1 gear reduction. ( yes i know, it doesnt have a multi ratio gearbox)
Higher center of gravity....handling advantage..?? possibly, but again who is actually going to take advantage of that ?
..Track day racers maybe,..well then they may just notice the huge weight penalty of the Battery pack and limited top speed , sort of spoils the fun somewhat.

The Model S lists itself as a 7-passenger car.

..
.. Oh dear, what are they reading ...or smoking ?

a Model S user will end up spending just $34 a month on fuel costs

Eventually, people will wake up and realise that fuel costs are not an issue to most "new car" owners, nor indeed to many other commuter drivers. Incase you had not noticed , governments and cities are slowly (fast in some places) shifting the motoring costs to Toll and Parking charges. Fuel, will become a minor factor.
Already my Toll and parking ( + insurance and other taxes) far out weigh my fuel bill by as much as 3:1 ..! An EV wont fix that !