Lessss
1 MW
A MUST for any electric car IMO is a gas/deisel/other burnt fuel generator to supply electricity. That way you can keep battery cost low weight low, but still have a longerish range ability when needed.
Electric vehicles, poor performance, high cost, vaporware
- Thread starter zombiess
- Start date
Kingfish
100 MW
Apologies; I ran OT on another thread so I’m furthering the comments here. With regards to efficiency I developed a model comparing Volt, Leaf and Tesla Roadster. The link to the thread explains thoroughly so I won’t repeat here. However I would like the opportunity to reply to the post:
Original comparison:
REdiculous, you intrigued me to recheck the math.
I developed a new model from scratch. Aside from vehicle costs, compare and contrast daily cost of operation for EV verses ICE. For this study I used the Nissan Leaf for the EV specs.
Presumed:
Results:
Conclusion: The Leaf doesn’t begin to pencil out unless we drive over 72 miles/day. That seems a bit extreme for the casual commuter. REdiculous, I concede to your point. The annual miles are an eye-opener.
I wonder how eMotos and Motorcycles would compare?
Chagrined, KF
Original comparison:
Code:
Car System kW cost $/yr US-gal Dist/yr
------------------------------------------------------------
Volt g-elec 16 6094 1016 290 7254
Leaf elec 24 9141 1523 435 10882
T. Roadster elec 53 20185 3364 961 24030REdiculous said:
REdiculous, you intrigued me to recheck the math.
I developed a new model from scratch. Aside from vehicle costs, compare and contrast daily cost of operation for EV verses ICE. For this study I used the Nissan Leaf for the EV specs.Presumed:
- Miles/Day = varies & charted below. However for the calculations I used 6 days/week, 52 weeks/year, over 6 years.
- ICE mpg = 25
- $ USD/gallon = $3.50
- Recharge rate in kWh = $0.29, based utility bill from last month.
Using the Leaf... - Battery capacity is 24 kWh
- $/kWh = $380.86 if using RC batteries, total = $9141
- Amortization: $/day over term (6 days/week…) = $4.883
Results:
Code:
Dist/Day kW $/day, e $/day, g tot $/day, e % diff e/g tot miles/yr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25 6 $1.74 $ 3.50 $ 6.62 189% 46.8k
50 12 $3.48 $ 7.00 $ 8.36 119% 93.6k
75 18 $5.22 $10.50 $10.10 96% 140.4kConclusion: The Leaf doesn’t begin to pencil out unless we drive over 72 miles/day. That seems a bit extreme for the casual commuter. REdiculous, I concede to your point. The annual miles are an eye-opener.
I wonder how eMotos and Motorcycles would compare?
Chagrined, KF
dnmun
1 PW
why did you use $3.50/gallon for gas? i think $4 is more common now, and $4.50 in the napa valley already. britain is already $10. this may be more relevant.
maybe 21mpg for city traffic, 30 mpg freeway for normal drivers.
assume 17k miles/yr for normal commuting, 50 miles total/day. 60%city40%freeway gives you the 25mpg.
so around 700 gallons of gas/year @$4.20-4.25 = $3k/yr for gas
using 200Wh/mile and $.12/kWh for juice gives 3,400 kWh = $408 for juice. $2,200 savings/year over the ICE.
i cannot believe you can buy a versa for $10k or even for $12k. so using $28k for the leaf, that is about $16k difference, so 7 years to get even. but in 7 years gas will be $9 here, so the numbers would be different and the resale values would also change.
jmho.
maybe 21mpg for city traffic, 30 mpg freeway for normal drivers.
assume 17k miles/yr for normal commuting, 50 miles total/day. 60%city40%freeway gives you the 25mpg.
so around 700 gallons of gas/year @$4.20-4.25 = $3k/yr for gas
using 200Wh/mile and $.12/kWh for juice gives 3,400 kWh = $408 for juice. $2,200 savings/year over the ICE.
i cannot believe you can buy a versa for $10k or even for $12k. so using $28k for the leaf, that is about $16k difference, so 7 years to get even. but in 7 years gas will be $9 here, so the numbers would be different and the resale values would also change.
jmho.
Kingfish
100 MW
Yeah, I know this is a numeric minefield when stepping into it... I leaned for the conservative route/worst-case. Wished we had a way to prop a little spreadsheet app where we could twiddle with the numbers for our own locale 
Wouldn't that be fun?
If gasoline = $4.50 USD/gal, then the break-even point moves to > 47 miles/day. That's more realistic. The cost for recharge could be reduced if a portion was off-the-grid (and paid for); I originally presumed mine was $0.12/kWh but then looking at the January bill, after taxes - it's a scalping.
The one benefit still open is that when On The Road, these costs could be free for DIY: If I stayed at an RV park, my cost is ??? I bet however that this will change PDQ once EV acceptance goes mainstream. RV parks could make a killing doubling as overnight charging facilities... but I digress
<slurp more coffee> KF
Wouldn't that be fun? If gasoline = $4.50 USD/gal, then the break-even point moves to > 47 miles/day. That's more realistic. The cost for recharge could be reduced if a portion was off-the-grid (and paid for); I originally presumed mine was $0.12/kWh but then looking at the January bill, after taxes - it's a scalping.
The one benefit still open is that when On The Road, these costs could be free for DIY: If I stayed at an RV park, my cost is ??? I bet however that this will change PDQ once EV acceptance goes mainstream. RV parks could make a killing doubling as overnight charging facilities... but I digress
<slurp more coffee> KF
redorblack
100 W
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2009
- Messages
- 142
Something left out when comparing the Leaf or a Prius to a normal ICE vehicle... other needed maintainence and needs for the car. Leaf trips to a gas station and getting to stand out in the rain while trying to get the pump to turn on... zero. Prius brake jobs needed when used as a rural mail route vehicle vs. ICE vehicle... 45,000 miles vs. <5000 miles. Prius mileage on a rural mail route due to regen... about 45mpg, ICE vehicle about 6mpg. I'll be curius to see what a Leaf or Mitsubishi EV can do on something like that with pure electric and regen. I don't expect to see EV owners complaining about some of the common ICE repairs... brakes, exhaust systems, fuel pumps, water pumps etc... (although they have cooling systems and brakes).
During the existance of the EV1, aparrently none of them ever needed a brake job and the new ones have strategies to engage the mechanical brakes on occassion just to keep them from rusting up. There is more to it than just mileage. On the other end of the spectrum, you never hear a gas powered car owner bitching about having to turn the heater/defroster off so their range isn't dramatically decreased.
During the existance of the EV1, aparrently none of them ever needed a brake job and the new ones have strategies to engage the mechanical brakes on occassion just to keep them from rusting up. There is more to it than just mileage. On the other end of the spectrum, you never hear a gas powered car owner bitching about having to turn the heater/defroster off so their range isn't dramatically decreased.
CrazyJerry
10 W
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2011
- Messages
- 70
Great thread!
EV has a ways to go, true, but it is gaining traction. In the last several years look at all the developments that have popped up - even if some have fallen by the wayside. This is similar to all of the hundreds of developments with cars and even car manufacturers that have also fallen by the wayside (Hudson, Locomobile, Studebaker, Pontiac, etc..)
eBikes and scooters are a great start. Those who are pushing ebikes into the realm of motorcycle performance are helping to change minds and gain attention for sure but if you want to grab attention and really get things going it will come down to eye-candy! Last year the battery in my Hyundai nearly went dead as I commuted all over hell and creation in the Go-One. The styling of the ev world HAS to grab attention and that will lead to the conversation about the technicals inside. This is how you sell this stuff in my opinion. People can then visualize themselves in it - whatever it is.
Last summer at the local energy fair, I nosed up the Go-One with a Tesla. The Tesla is a marvel for sure but at easily 3 to 1, it was the visual of the Go-One that drew the cameras. This was true at every age level. People are ready for a change but it has to be appealing, useful, and within the cost-reach of the masses or it will forever be a niche market. The niche products will sort themselves in the free market just as the earlier cars did and then end result will be .... well we'll just have to wait and see...
~CrazyJerry
EV has a ways to go, true, but it is gaining traction. In the last several years look at all the developments that have popped up - even if some have fallen by the wayside. This is similar to all of the hundreds of developments with cars and even car manufacturers that have also fallen by the wayside (Hudson, Locomobile, Studebaker, Pontiac, etc..)
eBikes and scooters are a great start. Those who are pushing ebikes into the realm of motorcycle performance are helping to change minds and gain attention for sure but if you want to grab attention and really get things going it will come down to eye-candy! Last year the battery in my Hyundai nearly went dead as I commuted all over hell and creation in the Go-One. The styling of the ev world HAS to grab attention and that will lead to the conversation about the technicals inside. This is how you sell this stuff in my opinion. People can then visualize themselves in it - whatever it is.
Last summer at the local energy fair, I nosed up the Go-One with a Tesla. The Tesla is a marvel for sure but at easily 3 to 1, it was the visual of the Go-One that drew the cameras. This was true at every age level. People are ready for a change but it has to be appealing, useful, and within the cost-reach of the masses or it will forever be a niche market. The niche products will sort themselves in the free market just as the earlier cars did and then end result will be .... well we'll just have to wait and see...
~CrazyJerry
mistercrash
10 kW
Maybe I'm not positive here and I'm sorry but a little more than a year ago I got interested in electric vehicles. I have been reading and educating myself ever since on the subject and learned a lot. The only E-vehicles I've seen that every one can afford are the cheap e-bikes and scooters, stuff that are unreliable and break often and make people who buy them have a poor experience in the EV world. The better options are all too expensive. I see Go-One vehicles go for over $10 000 
Tesla? Forget it! They get government grants to build cars that are well over the 50 grand mark and even double that. 9 grand for a Stealth bike that can't even be ridden in the streets in my town. 7 grand for an electric recumbent trike. Brammo, Zero, they look real good and have really cool features and performance. But seriously? Some talk about the price of these things like they are a great bargain. I don't make six figures a year, to me, it's all part of a niche market. Being green with the best performance is for the rich, the rest like me go at 30 km/h on cheap Chinese made scooters and bikes, doing the best we can with the funds we have. It's a shame really, the only way EVs will be accepted by the masses is to make them easily available to the masses. Right now, it's all high cost, way too high.
Tesla? Forget it! They get government grants to build cars that are well over the 50 grand mark and even double that. 9 grand for a Stealth bike that can't even be ridden in the streets in my town. 7 grand for an electric recumbent trike. Brammo, Zero, they look real good and have really cool features and performance. But seriously? Some talk about the price of these things like they are a great bargain. I don't make six figures a year, to me, it's all part of a niche market. Being green with the best performance is for the rich, the rest like me go at 30 km/h on cheap Chinese made scooters and bikes, doing the best we can with the funds we have. It's a shame really, the only way EVs will be accepted by the masses is to make them easily available to the masses. Right now, it's all high cost, way too high.
CrazyJerry
10 W
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2011
- Messages
- 70
mistercrash,
I hear ya - however - I hear that a lot. The same people I hear that from live in a six-figure house - mine was $8,800 usd. I am well below the income of most people I know and still manage to live off-grid, do the Go-One thing, etc.. I do all of my own work which is a big plus. My truck is 14 yrs old w/245,000 miles - unheard of here in the land of rust. I have a whopping 8 inch tv and am typing on a 4 year old netbook. Most people don't have the first bike that was ever given to them - I do (a 50's Colorflow). You don't need to be uber-rich - I guess it's all in where your priorities are.
~CrazyJerry
I hear ya - however - I hear that a lot. The same people I hear that from live in a six-figure house - mine was $8,800 usd. I am well below the income of most people I know and still manage to live off-grid, do the Go-One thing, etc.. I do all of my own work which is a big plus. My truck is 14 yrs old w/245,000 miles - unheard of here in the land of rust. I have a whopping 8 inch tv and am typing on a 4 year old netbook. Most people don't have the first bike that was ever given to them - I do (a 50's Colorflow). You don't need to be uber-rich - I guess it's all in where your priorities are.
~CrazyJerry
mistercrash
10 kW
I don't even have a car, I gave up on it a year ago. Sold it and good riddance. I gave up smoking because it cost too much (yeah I know it was also bad for my health). I'm typing on a Dell I bought in 2003. My house cost a lot, but there's no getting around that to live in the town where I work. I'm not as hardcore as you by being off the grid but still, in the past two years, we cut costs on a lot of things, gave up on a lot of stuff to save money. Trying to go back to basics. I still can't find the money to buy most of the high end EVs on the market. I'm a city bus driver, I make enough to pay the bills, put food on the table, put money aside for my kid's education. There's not much left. Most EVs that I wish I could have, I just can't afford. Not for now anyway. I hope that more companies manage to make them so more are sold which could bring the prices way down. But starting off with $100 000 sport cars or $10 000 bicycles is not a very good start IMHO. Like I said, the bottom feeders like us still manage to do the EV thing, with the cheaper stuff. It's still fun, but it could be so much more. It should've been so much more than this twenty or thirty years ago. Anyway, what do I know. 8)
Is that your Go-One in your avatar? It looks awesome. And love the solar panels behind it.
Is that your Go-One in your avatar? It looks awesome. And love the solar panels behind it.
CrazyJerry
10 W
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2011
- Messages
- 70
...Is that your Go-One in your avatar? It looks awesome. And love the solar panels behind it.
mistercrash,
Yes and the tail lights are a spare set I had from a 59 Cadillac I dragged out of the woods many moons ago, and the round cylinder on top is a bass cannon I pulled out of the dump (houses the regen unit and other added electronics).. The solar panels are mounted to a very rusted and very retired bucket van. This makes for an excellent push-button wind generator test tower.
~CrazyJerry
mistercrash,
Yes and the tail lights are a spare set I had from a 59 Cadillac I dragged out of the woods many moons ago, and the round cylinder on top is a bass cannon I pulled out of the dump (houses the regen unit and other added electronics).. The solar panels are mounted to a very rusted and very retired bucket van. This makes for an excellent push-button wind generator test tower.
~CrazyJerry
E-racer
1 kW
Joseph C. said:
Well said Joseph!
I think you will also find that they have drawn less than half of the 528 million dollar LOAN. There is little to no question that they will pay it back. Tesla supplied 30,000 battery packs to Daimler alone last year. I would like to see someone try to start a car company without a LOAN... or any business for that matter. BTW 50K for a car isn't that ridiculous. People pay more than that for SUV's, Luxury Cars, Performance Cars, and Trucks all the time. The reason Tesla will succeed as a car company is because they are aiming at educated high end clientele that are willing to pay the 50K+ in my opinion this is why volt and leaf sales are low. The average economy car buyer is buying a car for just that "economy. "
Hillhater
100 TW
Tesla are in a very risky position.
They have a business based on a battery pack developed around a particular cell chemistry and configuration.
At the rate battery systems are being developed and brought to market, they risk being left high and dry at any moment with an outdated technology. They may be selling to 3rd parties currently, but a technology change could easily draw those customers elseware very quickly.
They would be in a better situation if you were currently able to actually buy & drive a Tesla car ! ?
They have a business based on a battery pack developed around a particular cell chemistry and configuration.
At the rate battery systems are being developed and brought to market, they risk being left high and dry at any moment with an outdated technology. They may be selling to 3rd parties currently, but a technology change could easily draw those customers elseware very quickly.
They would be in a better situation if you were currently able to actually buy & drive a Tesla car ! ?
E-racer
1 kW
Tesla is getting the Model S perfect before delivery. They will not make a complete ass of themselves by rushing a car to market like Fisker. There will be 5,000 Models S deliveries by the year end 2012 without a doubt in my mind. It is so strange to me that so many people on a forum dedicated to EV's is so against the success of the worlds only quality BEV manufacturer. Some of us spend $4K+ on our hobbies every year. A $50-100K electric car that will last as long or longer than competing ICE luxury cars is not that big of a deal.
This is s great excerpt from a very good article!
"To Musk, the conventional thinking about the EV market is one reason why so many people fail to grasp Tesla Motors' potential. At the moment, fewer than 13 million cars and small trucks are sold in the U.S. each year. About 2% of those are pure electrics or hybrids. The accepted wisdom, Musk argues, is that "there's a market for electric cars and all electric cars compete against each other for that market. But that's just the wrong paradigm." Musk does not believe the Model S or X will compete with other EVs for dominion over a tiny slice of the consumer market. Models S and X will instead compete with gas-burning BMWs and Lexuses. And because Musk is assured his EV technology will prove superior in performance (and emissions), it will thus succeed."
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/164/tesla-motors
This is s great excerpt from a very good article!
"To Musk, the conventional thinking about the EV market is one reason why so many people fail to grasp Tesla Motors' potential. At the moment, fewer than 13 million cars and small trucks are sold in the U.S. each year. About 2% of those are pure electrics or hybrids. The accepted wisdom, Musk argues, is that "there's a market for electric cars and all electric cars compete against each other for that market. But that's just the wrong paradigm." Musk does not believe the Model S or X will compete with other EVs for dominion over a tiny slice of the consumer market. Models S and X will instead compete with gas-burning BMWs and Lexuses. And because Musk is assured his EV technology will prove superior in performance (and emissions), it will thus succeed."
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/164/tesla-motors
mistercrash
10 kW
I was not really talking about one company in particular being successful or not, I doubt very much that EVs will ever become mainstream if the only options are only offered to the "educated high end clientèle'' that can buy 50k and 100k vehicles without even thinking about it, like it's not that big of a deal. I'm not about one company in particular, ever since I got interested in EVs, I'm more about EVs completely taking over. I don't think offering 100k cars and 10k bicycles is what is going to make that happen. I'm probably dreaming way too much by thinking that EVs should be offered in a high quality format that everyone can afford. The way some people talk sometimes in here, EVs will forever stay a niche market for the high end clientèle. So what do you call the billions of people that are not part of the high end clientèle? I guess we'll just take the bus.
Hey I don't wish for any of the present and future EV companies to fail, I want them to succeed, with all my heart. I just get very skeptic of their future when I look at the price of the products they offer. Anyway, I'll leave the high end clientèle talk more on the subject and will keep my uneducated comments to myself, I gotta a bus to catch.
I guess we'll just take the bus.Hey I don't wish for any of the present and future EV companies to fail, I want them to succeed, with all my heart. I just get very skeptic of their future when I look at the price of the products they offer. Anyway, I'll leave the high end clientèle talk more on the subject and will keep my uneducated comments to myself, I gotta a bus to catch.
Hillhater
100 TW
mistercrash said:...I doubt very much that EVs will ever become mainstream if the only options are only offered to the "educated high end clientèle'' that can buy 50k and 100k vehicles...
.... So what do you call the billions of people that are not part of the high end clientèle?
Yes, ..but with any luck it will be an electric bus !! :lol:
PS, I have just realized that much of my commuting to the city has been by EV for many years... eletric trains !
E-racer
1 kW
Just remember we are talking about business and industry here. Target market demographics do not lie. The low profit margin associated with the low cost of economy cars will not be able to facilitate the development of electric vehicles. High end clientele are currently the demographic that are willing to purchase a premium product such as an electric luxury car. The success of these high end cars is what gains the economy of scale for Tesla. Essentially this is the only logical approach to achieve the goal. Please don't take offense to my comment. Also, a fully loaded Nissan Maxima is close to $40K these days. The $50K base Model S starts to become appealing when you approach it with that logic.
Hillhater
100 TW
E-racer said:
If battery performance keeps improving and prices keep droping ( as even Musk has stated) then there is no reason why a low cost EV range could not be a reality.
Everybody needs transport, even in a recession,...but the high end "luxury" market is both much smaller and much more vulnerable to the state of the economy .
Dauntless
100 TW
Hillhater said:
If only that was as great a danger as it should be. That's a complicated battery setup, but it was required to make it suitable for the use in the vehicle. Everything that seems to threaten the status quo fizzles, sometimes literally. The electric car seems to be the toughest battery issue to confront. All these new battery developments are a mite too much smoke and mirrors just yet.
I think a good battery that obsolesces theirs will probably be easy to adapt to as the number one reason it's better, they might even be able to adopt it FIRST. I kind of think it's a shame that they're probably not losing sleep over there, which means they're probably not working so hard on their own replacement.
Yeah, that would put ME in a better position, too. Let's see how it goes with their little $50k "Economy Car" edition. The question is, will there be people ready to spend $30k more than they can have the Leaf for if it's for a NONSPECTACULAR Tesla? Or maybe the S is not all THAT unspectacular, there is a bit of a Jaguar look to it. They collect $100 million from Toyota for work on the new electric RAV4, there's a new Roadster in 2014 and an SUV before that, I'm thinking there's some pretty fair economics on their side.
I for one am happy to see the rich people pay for all the development. If an affordable car can't be built yet, as long as the high end market holds up then the R&D money continues. Affordability should resolve itself, it's just a question of how long it will take.
People mentioned "Subsidies," etc., my understanding is they raised over $300 million from investors, $70 million from Elon Musk, then were approved to borrow, at interest, $465 million from the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. There were solid sounding companies rejected, so I don't think this was a rubber stamp loan.
TylerDurden
100 GW
"Affordability" is defined by consumer expectations of a feature-rich vehicle, similar to the econobox gassers with airbags, power windows, AC, etc.etc...
Any company must enter the market where the most money can be made, while the market and infrastructure develop. Analogy: If you were establishing a farm in new territory, wouldn't you plant your seeds in the small patch of best soil and keep yourself alive while you cleared the large areas where yield is lower?
IOW, manufacturers need to "make it on margin rather than volume" until the batteries, infrastructure and consumers are ready. At that point, widespread acceptance drives manufacturing, distribution, sales, service - an EV economy.
So, while "free-market" advocates may grouse about subsidies/loans to the folks making EVs for the elite, the long-term benefit is more affordable transport for all, as oil will not be getting cheaper. The benefits of more affordable transportation ripple through all aspects of society, just as the deficits of higher prices for oil do.
Any company must enter the market where the most money can be made, while the market and infrastructure develop. Analogy: If you were establishing a farm in new territory, wouldn't you plant your seeds in the small patch of best soil and keep yourself alive while you cleared the large areas where yield is lower?
IOW, manufacturers need to "make it on margin rather than volume" until the batteries, infrastructure and consumers are ready. At that point, widespread acceptance drives manufacturing, distribution, sales, service - an EV economy.
So, while "free-market" advocates may grouse about subsidies/loans to the folks making EVs for the elite, the long-term benefit is more affordable transport for all, as oil will not be getting cheaper. The benefits of more affordable transportation ripple through all aspects of society, just as the deficits of higher prices for oil do.
E-racer
1 kW
Well said tylerdurden. I wish I could write that eloquently.
Hillhater
100 TW
Thats the theory, but i doubt Tesla had much of a margin ..(if any).. on the Roadster, and they wont be able to cream "ferrari" levels of margin on the $50k "S" model ! They will need Volume to get a return from that.TylerDurden said:
I also doubt, that they would have been able to milk a company like Daimler for heavy margins on those packs they assembled for them.
TylerDurden
100 GW
I can't disagree, but lean more on the point that manufacturers will enter the most receptive segments of the market. e.g.: Pulsar before Swatch before dollar-store watch.Hillhater said:
Or as the oft-cited gag goes: "Why did Jesse James rob banks?... Because, that's where the money is."
hillzofvalp
100 kW
Grid tying the cars may not seem very attractive for a variety of reasons, but I believe power companies could have A large impact on electric car adoption/costs. Imagine households getting money back from sharing electricity during peak demand. This could work if everyone scheduled their charge and cloud logged use patterns. I suppose this is not good for the batteries to be cycled over 0 miles, but maybe one day battery characteristics will be economical for this type of application.
There are a number of families who will not drive very often at all-- (elderly, for example), an electric car being used as a buffer for the grid could put the car to use.
There are a number of families who will not drive very often at all-- (elderly, for example), an electric car being used as a buffer for the grid could put the car to use.
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