seandepagnier
1 µW
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2021
- Messages
- 2
Hi, I would like to remain true to facts and statistics with a general discussion about the long-term viability of electric vehicles. By long-term I mean 200-500 years and longer.
We all know that non-renewable vehicles cannot work forever due to their consumption of fuel, to be clear I am not suggesting they are a better option or even an option at all.
My concern primarily lies with the fact that if all of the cars were EV, and all the energy solar/wind, and there were sufficient surplus to power mining equipment and to recycle batteries and solar/wind farms make steel and so forth which would mean 5-10 times the current electrical capacity (as I run on 100% solar power I must have roughly 40x my baseload in solar to maintain power through overcast periods) So assuming we did this and powered everything from solar and wind, it would require roughly 5-10% of the land to have solar panels and at least 50 times more wind turbines.
So far this seems physically possible, and I am just trying to look forward to 2100 or wherever net zero is reached and paint a picture of the situation. It seems clear to me that americans are unwilling to give up automobiles and history shows that human nature when lifestyles are threatened even for a morally justified cause will take up arms and start a war rather than relinquish them. So the scenario here is to somehow give people "what they want" at least that is what both of the political parties aim for and determine if it is even physically possible in the longer term.
The issue I am stumbling upon is the pavement. With 8 million+ miles of pavement, significant asphalt is required to maintain it. Even with recycling, virgin binder material is required, and this amount alone assuming all other consumption (transportation, heating, food production etc) is de-carbonized is a real problem. I have run the calculations, and the extensive road network, as well as parking lots, and other infrastructure is so significant compared to undeveloped nations, the emissions to maintain just the pavement are in the order of 2-3 tons per capita. While it is possible to use forms of seed oils to make asphalts, the quantity required would be insufficient. It may be possible to turn the matter in landfills into a form of pavement through pressure cooking, but this resource is both limited and somewhat hazardous to work with. I would love a deeper analysis of this topic and more clear data on the viability, but what I am getting to is I have serious concerns that it is possible to maintain the current road network without crude oil.
For this reason, promoting electric vehicles that travel with rubber tires on pavement (especially cars and vehicles that weigh many times more than what they transport) seems in question for a long-term future. Do we:
1) Continue to promote rubber on pavement and dont worry about the issue since it will not fall apart in most people's life time. Maybe fusion power will come around and we can convert co2 in the air back into asphalt and it will work out? Hope for technology that may never be viable with the risk being a world war over climate destruction?
2) Move toward a zip-line/hanging cable approach replacing roads with a much safer and more efficient transportation system that eliminates bridges, pavement intersections and most crashes. This would eliminate most of the cost of vehicles, improve aerodynamics and avoid all the energy intensive computer systems onboard cars (all would be driver less with trivial software not even requiring machine learning) while allowing the cars to have power transmitted to them along the way, or automatically swapping batteries to reduce weight along route thus also increasing efficiency. Instead of pavement grasses and flowers growing under the cables and steel cables and towers could be simply forged from either concentrated solar or other renewable sources at a fraction of the energy of current roads and transportation. With rolling resistance on order of rail (1/5th tires on pavement)
3) Move toward catapult/sling launched autonomous gliders to replace cars/roads with a faster, "safer" and more fun form of transportation.
4) Somehow convince everyone in the US to use more public transit and perhaps even electric bicycles, making almost all roads 0.8 meters wide or less and usually dirt/gravel.
I am looking for some feedback and insight and to have a pleasant discussion about the long-term future (2100-2500 and beyond) looking only 30-50 years ahead is shortsighted and could put us in a bad spot. What will the world look like and what direction we should move in now to ensure the best outcome for all species.
We all know that non-renewable vehicles cannot work forever due to their consumption of fuel, to be clear I am not suggesting they are a better option or even an option at all.
My concern primarily lies with the fact that if all of the cars were EV, and all the energy solar/wind, and there were sufficient surplus to power mining equipment and to recycle batteries and solar/wind farms make steel and so forth which would mean 5-10 times the current electrical capacity (as I run on 100% solar power I must have roughly 40x my baseload in solar to maintain power through overcast periods) So assuming we did this and powered everything from solar and wind, it would require roughly 5-10% of the land to have solar panels and at least 50 times more wind turbines.
So far this seems physically possible, and I am just trying to look forward to 2100 or wherever net zero is reached and paint a picture of the situation. It seems clear to me that americans are unwilling to give up automobiles and history shows that human nature when lifestyles are threatened even for a morally justified cause will take up arms and start a war rather than relinquish them. So the scenario here is to somehow give people "what they want" at least that is what both of the political parties aim for and determine if it is even physically possible in the longer term.
The issue I am stumbling upon is the pavement. With 8 million+ miles of pavement, significant asphalt is required to maintain it. Even with recycling, virgin binder material is required, and this amount alone assuming all other consumption (transportation, heating, food production etc) is de-carbonized is a real problem. I have run the calculations, and the extensive road network, as well as parking lots, and other infrastructure is so significant compared to undeveloped nations, the emissions to maintain just the pavement are in the order of 2-3 tons per capita. While it is possible to use forms of seed oils to make asphalts, the quantity required would be insufficient. It may be possible to turn the matter in landfills into a form of pavement through pressure cooking, but this resource is both limited and somewhat hazardous to work with. I would love a deeper analysis of this topic and more clear data on the viability, but what I am getting to is I have serious concerns that it is possible to maintain the current road network without crude oil.
For this reason, promoting electric vehicles that travel with rubber tires on pavement (especially cars and vehicles that weigh many times more than what they transport) seems in question for a long-term future. Do we:
1) Continue to promote rubber on pavement and dont worry about the issue since it will not fall apart in most people's life time. Maybe fusion power will come around and we can convert co2 in the air back into asphalt and it will work out? Hope for technology that may never be viable with the risk being a world war over climate destruction?
2) Move toward a zip-line/hanging cable approach replacing roads with a much safer and more efficient transportation system that eliminates bridges, pavement intersections and most crashes. This would eliminate most of the cost of vehicles, improve aerodynamics and avoid all the energy intensive computer systems onboard cars (all would be driver less with trivial software not even requiring machine learning) while allowing the cars to have power transmitted to them along the way, or automatically swapping batteries to reduce weight along route thus also increasing efficiency. Instead of pavement grasses and flowers growing under the cables and steel cables and towers could be simply forged from either concentrated solar or other renewable sources at a fraction of the energy of current roads and transportation. With rolling resistance on order of rail (1/5th tires on pavement)
3) Move toward catapult/sling launched autonomous gliders to replace cars/roads with a faster, "safer" and more fun form of transportation.
4) Somehow convince everyone in the US to use more public transit and perhaps even electric bicycles, making almost all roads 0.8 meters wide or less and usually dirt/gravel.
I am looking for some feedback and insight and to have a pleasant discussion about the long-term future (2100-2500 and beyond) looking only 30-50 years ahead is shortsighted and could put us in a bad spot. What will the world look like and what direction we should move in now to ensure the best outcome for all species.
