End of the world? I think not, but change is a coming...

[bigmoose]

papa, I have seen that one. I am dubious also. First we don't know the location. It could be some silt already covering debris from the DWH sinking. It could be seepage from storage tanks on the sunken drill rig. It might be prop wash from the ROV, it could also be minute formation seepage.

One thing, having talked to some oil field personnel with experience, they have said, we will know without a doubt when we see it. It will be dramatic, and should "run away with itself" around the well head, if the breach is there. High pressure, sand for increasing the clearances, there will be no doubt.

I don't think we are there yet. I think there were indications, and they backed down. Fast, and complete backoff from top kill/add another BOP on top. We may have the stack vibrating from the turbulent flow currently. That will steadily weaken the conductor casing cementing to the more solid seafloor below the 10's to 50 ft of pudding/sea mud on the floor. Remember the DWH dragged around the riser for two days in the winds/currents with no station keeping. The well head took a lot of torque. We likely should be thankful it was still there the day of the sinking.

Know that this well is also near the canyon wall to the deep. That sea floor pudding is unstable. There have been mudslides before in the area and well heads buried after a hurricane. Keep that in mind if you hear of plans for the Navy to detonate a conventional charge in a new close by intercept well to close the formation... a deep penetration intervention so to speak. I am 100% against that option, and hope it has no substance.

 

[John in CR]

BigMoose,

I see the O&G guys are already wondering why there aren't a lot more relief wells in progress, so a good idea, but nothing novel or new about it. Put those idle rigs to work I say.

I'm still trying to get my arms around what is going on down in the reservoir and the area and the distances involve. The 80ft of pay zone (flow zone, reservoir thickness, or whatever we want to call it), that I recall you mentioning, is that a good number?

 

[Papa]

This is an June 18, BP technical conference briefing. He talks about the subsuface recovery operations, vessels involved, and proposed and ongoing changes. He then briefly talks about the relief well(s) operations and their current progress. The first link is the audio, the 2nd is a companion PDF which contains the graphs the speaker refers to.

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/audio/kent_wells_tech_update_18062010.htm

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/local_assets/downloads_pdfs/Technical_briefing_061810.pdf