if demand for e-bikes goes up, will prices go up or down
- Thread starter morph999
- Start date
Since production rates are limited and the initial supply is small, if the demand suddenly exploded, you'd see prices temporarily increase to possibly enormous proportions but then once production is ramped up and supply adjusts, it would then get cheaper than the current prices due to economies of scale in the long-term. However, certain supplies needed uniquely for e-bikes may have supply shortages and the long-term price might actually increase (For the same kind of ebike - people may still revert to older technologies with proven supply). There might be some supply constraints for lithium and there might be some supply constraints for neodymium or other rare earth magnets; I can't really guess as to that as I have no idea what kind of supplies are available on the global scale.
I noticed the market price for a123s peaked during the summer of 2008 ($4/gal gas), so I suspect higher ebike demand might increase lithium battery prices for upto 1 to 3 years and then supply fundamentals will determine the long-term outcome.
I noticed the market price for a123s peaked during the summer of 2008 ($4/gal gas), so I suspect higher ebike demand might increase lithium battery prices for upto 1 to 3 years and then supply fundamentals will determine the long-term outcome.
deardancer3
10 kW
morph999 said:
First thing is a mammoth campaign to fix why they cannot use a car; thats what happens with withdrawal from addictions.
I expect that OPEC getting mad about the world wide downgrade of dependance on oil would be the most probable cause.
Most folks would also consider mopeds, NEV's, motorcycles, normal bikes, carpooling, public transit.
But yes, ebike demand would go up. a lot. If ebike prices got too high, then other transportation alternatives would be investigated.
But also consider service. How would we keep 5 million ebikes logging 5k miles per year running at todays failure rate, with customers that cannot fix most things?
dogman dan
1 PW
Actually, it did happen in the summer of 2008. Would you pay $650 for a WE kit? Plus shipping? 
But if you wanted it before fall, that was the price. Just about every retailer sold out by july, and many sales were made without letting the customer know delivery would be in september by some ebay jackasses.
But if you wanted it before fall, that was the price. Just about every retailer sold out by july, and many sales were made without letting the customer know delivery would be in september by some ebay jackasses.
spinningmagnets
100 TW
Like Dogman said, gas went from $2 to $4 a gallon, and suddenly, all the off-the-shelf kits were sold-out. Takes a couple months for a cargo ship to get the next big load and make it from China to US?
I agree with Swabluto, sudden spike up in kit prices, especially the most desirable kits. Then other retailers will find alternative suppliers, factories will boost production, add a second shift, etc. After a while there will be a drop in prices. I foresee non-hub kits gaining in popularity because after the intial sell-out of existing Chinese kits, there are many ways for local machine shops to make adapters to connect a DC motor to a bike.
Peltzers bike had a very heavy 0ne-HP Scott motor that he ran at 24V, and he had gotten it cheaply from EBAY after it had been pulled from an old floor polisher. All US parts...
I agree with Swabluto, sudden spike up in kit prices, especially the most desirable kits. Then other retailers will find alternative suppliers, factories will boost production, add a second shift, etc. After a while there will be a drop in prices. I foresee non-hub kits gaining in popularity because after the intial sell-out of existing Chinese kits, there are many ways for local machine shops to make adapters to connect a DC motor to a bike.
Peltzers bike had a very heavy 0ne-HP Scott motor that he ran at 24V, and he had gotten it cheaply from EBAY after it had been pulled from an old floor polisher. All US parts...
deardancer3
10 kW
Bionx and EZee were the ones I was familiar with at the time of the big boom.
One Retail Dealer had ordered 50 Bionx kits, and sold all of them. so did all the other big Bionx dealers.
Many bright People were still worried about battery longevity/ overall reliability and would pay a little extra for local service.
Eric Sundin did very good with his EZee prebuilts, as did NYCE.
There were lots of phone calls from people with "off Brand" ebikes, no prints, manuals, or parts. sometimes it was an easy fix, but usually could not help them for the price they wanted to pay. Lots of complaints for repair estimates exceeding 50% of the cost of the ebike. But when you have 6 pallets of $1.5k ebikes to be finalled and bills to be paid by building and selling them, your 'free hours of advise' quota goes down quite a bit.
Some give-away service explaining why cheapo generic SLA batteries would not work on high powered low voltage systems.
Then the salesy 20 questions of how to pick out the right ebike; fit, enough power, speed, enough range. One place generated some handouts, and gave them out when the line of customers was too long. Finally posted a big handout on the wall.
EZeepre-builts did not have an owners manual, so care and maintennce instructions had to be typed up and copied. Then nitpicky people laughed at the typo errors.
quite a few of the people here were probably involved in different phases of that craziness.
with todays credit market the way it is, It might be somewhat different the next time though.
d
One Retail Dealer had ordered 50 Bionx kits, and sold all of them. so did all the other big Bionx dealers.
Many bright People were still worried about battery longevity/ overall reliability and would pay a little extra for local service.
Eric Sundin did very good with his EZee prebuilts, as did NYCE.
There were lots of phone calls from people with "off Brand" ebikes, no prints, manuals, or parts. sometimes it was an easy fix, but usually could not help them for the price they wanted to pay. Lots of complaints for repair estimates exceeding 50% of the cost of the ebike. But when you have 6 pallets of $1.5k ebikes to be finalled and bills to be paid by building and selling them, your 'free hours of advise' quota goes down quite a bit.
Some give-away service explaining why cheapo generic SLA batteries would not work on high powered low voltage systems.
Then the salesy 20 questions of how to pick out the right ebike; fit, enough power, speed, enough range. One place generated some handouts, and gave them out when the line of customers was too long. Finally posted a big handout on the wall.
EZeepre-builts did not have an owners manual, so care and maintennce instructions had to be typed up and copied. Then nitpicky people laughed at the typo errors.
quite a few of the people here were probably involved in different phases of that craziness.
with todays credit market the way it is, It might be somewhat different the next time though.
d
