Peak Lithium: it's the new oil

[needWheels]

Apparently only a handful of corporation own most of the lithium rights in the world.
Rockwood owns 50% of the entire market!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8521396
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLC78036120090512

Once China depletes it's own limited resources it's going to have to start gobbling up other lithium source to churn out all the products north america consumes, so I bet lifepo4 will only increase in price over the years, not decrease?

Here's a fascinating paper about lithium supply vs demand:
http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/

ps. what ever happened to Zinc-Air batteries?

 

[spinningmagnets]

Took a quick scan at Wikipedia, current top producers are Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina.

Due to recent popularity, new sources have been found in Russia, China, USA (Nevada), Serbia, and Australia. Though the size of these new finds is not yet clear, certainly several more finds will be realized and the "low-hanging-fruit" will soon be identified.

"The best way to make a small fortune in the stock market, is to start with a large fortune" -Joe Kennedy

 

[swbluto]

Yeah, I've noticed that the amount of lithium reserves available seems to be a bit of an unknown, unlike oil. If people convert cars to electric, en masse, it definitely doesn't sound implausible that we'll also have a shortage in lithium but that, too, is an unknown on the "when" scale. Also, the sustainability of a lithium transportation economy also sounds like it might be dependent on the cost of recycling used lithium and I'm not entirely sure how economically recoverable used lithium is.

Ideally, people would convert to more efficient forms of transportation so they'd lessen their consumption on whatever finite resource, but the vast majority don't care about the long term future more than they do the "now", so I don't think that's very realistic.

Also, there are other unknowns such as - what kind of battery lifetimes may future consumers expect? Will technology advance so people could viably keep their packs for a decade? Two decades? If the longevity is developed, then consumption can also be minimized even if the crowd converts en masse. Seriously, though, oil prices will have to climb quite a bit to get the majority to electrify their ride so I think that's a pretty distant concern (Like upto 20 years from now). If it turns out Lithium isn't the magic energy bullet, then it's easy to see what society will be forced to do - reduce their energy consumption. People will drive less, there'll be a greater percentage of "small" vehicles for personal transportation(like bikes, scooters, etc.), public transportation will become more ubiquitous and hopefully more potentially effective, suburbs will be increasingly "mixed" with commerce to reduce the trip-to-purchase distances, population density will increasingly near the "centers" of a city and outer suburb population densities might rarify. I really have to wonder about food, though - what will happen when the current food transportation becomes antiquated by high transportation prices? Would there really be enough available local land to grow the necessary food supplies to support a population that was enabled by a food-import infrastructure? Theoretically, if energy costs are TOO high, then it seems likely the population will decrease due to inadequate food supplies, but that seems like an extreme scenario.

 

[spinningmagnets]

Due to environmental laws enacted in the 1970's, lead must be recycled, or pay a hefty fee to be lazy (or a fine for dumping) so I'm wondering...

I've seen references that almost all lead/acid batteries are recycled now, are used Lithium batteries recycleable? I know Home Depot and Wal-Mart take the old ones back for free by federal law...anyone know ? (or are they just disposed of in accordance with regs?)

Some Chinese chemical engineer needs to find a process to reclaim the lithium in old batteries.

 

[John in CR]

It's actually pretty small quantities of lithium in our batteries, and substantial lithium reserves, enough to power the world, are sitting undeveloped at less than 15m in Kings Valley alone. Don't fall for excuses to keep lithium battery prices high. I've been in this game for just over a year, and already lithium battery prices have declined by over 50%, and as a % of the battery price lithium as a raw material represents a very small portion.

Lithium as a commodity may be a nice speculative investment via stop ownership in various companies, since demand will most assuredly rise, but since it is such a minor cost included in current lithium battery prices, it would require exponential increases in raw lithium prices to justify battery prices in the foreseeable future. Plus it's a recyclable material, so despite relatively low global reserves of lithium compared to other commodities, I believe there's more than enough to go around until a better and cheaper solution is developed.

John

 

[needWheels]

Hmm, how much lithium is in a 40 gram 18650 cell? Anyone know or have a way to figure it out?

 

[swbluto]

Hmm, how much lithium is in a 40 gram 18650 cell? Anyone know or have a way to figure it out?

Four letters:

MSDS

Luckily, it seems someone has already done the leg-work. In short, 3.4% of the cell is lithium by weight. 1kg=1000g of lifepo4 = 34 grams of lithium. A typical 10 kg 48v20Ah pack has .34 kg of lithium or ~3/4 of a pound.

 

[needWheels]

Oh wow that's much less than I thought. I would have figured at least 50% was lithium.
I guess the FePo4 portions are much more common elements? That would be good news.

It still would be nice if a huge source of lithium was found in North America though, might help guarantee jobs and security. Plus then prices would drop. We do have the huge salt flats in Utah, but I guess no lithium there?

I think lifepo4 can serve us very well for decade, but if it was just $100 for a 48v 20ah pack, or just $1000 for a 100 mile car-sized pack, it would change everything.

 

[jag]

Took a quick scan at Wikipedia, current top producers are Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina.

When something the rich world wants is located largely in the poor world social and environmental concerns always seem to pop up. I remember reading an article in National Geographic Magazine on lithium prospecting in the Andes, but couldn't find an online link to it. Here is a similar NY Times report from Bolivia:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/03/world/americas/03lithium.html?_r=2&ref=world

Of course lithium poses no greater problem than other commodities we import from the poor world. Likely less since as pointed out in this thread the quantity used in batteries is relatively low.

 

[needWheels]

When something the rich world wants is located largely in the poor world social and environmental concerns always seem to pop up.

For the life of me I cannot remember where I saw this but I am fairly positive it was on TV and maybe 60 minutes, but they were talking about a country that was very skeptical about signing away their mineral rights to a certain area and I believe it was for lithium.

I will google a bit to try to find it.

aha! It's Bolivia and it was on the BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7607624.stm (can't get the video to play )
and here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1166387/In-search-Lithium-The-battle-3rd-element.html (AMAZING PHOTOS)

 

[John in CR]

Oh wow that's much less than I thought. I would have figured at least 50% was lithium.
I guess the FePo4 portions are much more common elements? That would be good news.

It still would be nice if a huge source of lithium was found in North America though, might help guarantee jobs and security. Plus then prices would drop. We do have the huge salt flats in Utah, but I guess no lithium there?

I think lifepo4 can serve us very well for decade, but if it was just $100 for a 48v 20ah pack, or just $1000 for a 100 mile car-sized pack, it would change everything.

NeedWheels,

The Kings Valley deposit in Nevada is estimated to contain over 1.2 million metric tons of lithium (unless I slipped a digit somewhere, since I've read a 25 billion pound estimate before). It is sitting there easily accessible near the surface, but is not being mined at all, since the price is so low, about $3,500 per metric ton. For those interested it's owed by Western Lithium Canada Corp (WLC), which was spun off as a subsidiary of Western Uranium Corp. Apparently the value on the books of WUC of the lithium deposit is 0.

John

 

[needWheels]

Ah so the Canadians DID invade America, lol.
How on earth did they allow a foreign company to own so much of land rights.
Well I guess that happens in many of our industries.

That's yet another parallel to oil I guess, they don't want to mine it locally until prices are higher.

Such a shame. Just imagine how many ebikes there would be instead of cars if you could get a 48v 20ah pack for $100

 

[John in CR]

Ah so the Canadians DID invade America, lol.
How on earth did they allow a foreign company to own so much of land rights.
Well I guess that happens in many of our industries.

That's yet another parallel to oil I guess, they don't want to mine it locally until prices are higher.

Such a shame. Just imagine how many ebikes there would be instead of cars if you could get a 48v 20ah pack for $100

At $100/kwh and the long life of lithium batts, then cars will become even more prevalent than now, but they'll be electric.

John

 

[Lapwing]

Interesting analysis of world lithium use-reserves.

http://www.evworld.com/library/lithium_shortage.pdf

 

[julesa]

Interesting analysis of world lithium use-reserves.

http://www.evworld.com/library/lithium_shortage.pdf

Sounds good until you look a little deeper at the mysteriously unspecified credentials of the author, and the extent to which he cited his sources. William Tahil's title is "Director of Research, Meridian Research International," which he granted to himself after he founded "Meridian Research International" and started making a lot of noise about peak lithium and how investing in lithium was the road to ruin.

You'll really get a laugh if you look at some of Meridian's other research projects. Apparently high impedance cells powering electrostatic motors is the wave of the future for electric vehicles. LOL :lol:
http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Energy/Battery.htm

 

[spinningmagnets]

"I drink your milkshake, I drink it up!"..MMMMM..tastes like....OIL!

 

[GTA1]

Interesting analysis of world lithium use-reserves.

http://www.evworld.com/library/lithium_shortage.pdf

Sounds good until you look a little deeper at the mysteriously unspecified credentials of the author, and the extent to which he cited his sources. William Tahil's title is "Director of Research, Meridian Research International," which he granted to himself after he founded "Meridian Research International" and started making a lot of noise about peak lithium and how investing in lithium was the road to ruin.

You'll really get a laugh if you look at some of Meridian's other research projects. Apparently high impedance cells powering electrostatic motors is the wave of the future for electric vehicles. LOL :lol:
http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Energy/Battery.htm

Since the topic has moved to the credentials of the author, can julesa
provide us with some credentials of itself?

Do you have any qualification, credentials, publications, in mining or geology?

How many years of relevant experience do you have in lithium reserve estimation?

How much experience do you have in lithium extraction?

Have you ever operated a lithium commodities business?

Have you ever traded in lithium metal markets? Even as little as one contract?

Let's level the playing field here...

 

[julesa]

Interesting analysis of world lithium use-reserves.

http://www.evworld.com/library/lithium_shortage.pdf

Sounds good until you look a little deeper at the mysteriously unspecified credentials of the author, and the extent to which he cited his sources. William Tahil's title is "Director of Research, Meridian Research International," which he granted to himself after he founded "Meridian Research International" and started making a lot of noise about peak lithium and how investing in lithium was the road to ruin.

You'll really get a laugh if you look at some of Meridian's other research projects. Apparently high impedance cells powering electrostatic motors is the wave of the future for electric vehicles. LOL :lol:
http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Energy/Battery.htm

Since the topic has moved to the credentials of the author, can julesa
provide us with some credentials of itself?

Do you have any qualification, credentials, publications, in mining or geology?

How many years of relevant experience do you have in lithium reserve estimation?

How much experience do you have in lithium extraction?

Have you ever operated a lithium commodities business?

Have you ever traded in lithium metal markets? Even as little as one contract?

Let's level the playing field here...

You're absolutely right, I'm not a geologist. I never pretended to have any expertise in the area. But that's my point. I'm not the one setting making alarmist predictions, and I'm not pretending to have any significant expertise in either Lithium extraction, electrostatic motors, or high impedance battery technologies. LOL

 

[GTA1]

You're absolutely right, I'm not a geologist. I never pretended to have any expertise in the area. But that's my point. I'm not the one setting making alarmist predictions, and I'm not pretending to have any significant expertise in either Lithium extraction, electrostatic motors, or high impedance battery technologies. LOL

There are perfectly credible people who are forecasting Peak Petroleum, and by extension, the notion of peak output is broadly applicable and extensible to peak output in virtually any natural resource, including coal, uranium, fresh water, etc.

The argument against Peak Lithium will have to begin from the premise that peak output is broadly applicable, and then give specific reasons why based on what we currently know, why Lithium deposits should be exempt from the rule.

I bet you there is plenty of lithium in sea water, but how in the world are you going to economically extract it?

 

[julesa]

1) You can't recycle petroleum. You can recycle lithium batteries.
2) Petroleum geologists are fairly certain the biggest and most economically recoverable light sweet crude fields have already been found. I don't believe this is true of lithium.
3) Lithium isn't "exempt from the rule," it's just that we have more than a thousand years' worth at the current rate of demand, and that's just counting the reserves we already know about.

I'm not a geologist or Lithium producer because I'm not particularly interested in either field. So I'm not going to engage you further in your attempt to change the subject. If you want to learn more about it yourself, click here:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=lithium+reserves&l=1

The point I was making is that Mr. William Tahil, B.A., aka "Mr. Peak Lithium," has no graduate degrees, has never received any formal training in research (as is obvious from reading his work), founded his own organization, Meridian Research International, presumably to suggest a connection with the famous Meridian International Center, and appointed himself Research Director.

Mr. R. Keith Evans, a professional geologist, has called Mr. Tahil's assertions "alarmist" and "ludicrous," and I'm inclined to believe the geologist over the self-titled researcher in his basement. A google search reveals Tahil also wrote an e-book about how the 9/11 towers were actually destroyed when the secret nuclear reactors hidden beneath them went supercritical. I'm not making this up.

http://norfidid.wordpress.com/2009/...ar-reactors-the-cause-of-the-wtc-destruction/
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/1363475/Ground-Zero

 

[GTA1]

1) You can't recycle petroleum. You can recycle lithium batteries.
2) Petroleum geologists are fairly certain the biggest and most economically recoverable light sweet crude fields have already been found. I don't believe this is true of lithium.
3) Lithium isn't "exempt from the rule," it's just that we have more than a thousand years' worth at the current rate of demand, and that's just counting the reserves we already know about.

Lithium secondary batteries are currently collected (but not necessarily recycled) in places like Japan and the EU and disposed of as hazardous waste.

There is one outfit involved in primary Lithium battery recycling.

Off hand, I know of no company involved in collection of Lithium secondary batteries for recycling in the USA that recycles the lithium to use for batteries. It is recycled into Lithium Hydroxide for grease. Toxco is the company if you want to look them up.

Furthermore, there is no mandatory return / deposit charged with Lithium batteries in the USA. A mandatory fee of $1 per cell or $10 or $20 per battery pack applied at the importers would probably be required to generate sufficient incentive to create and operate a lithium battery recycling program.

It is amusing that this forum is virtually silent on the need to have such a mandatory fees program implemented ASAP.



As for the "few thousand years worth" of lithium reserves, the kicker is "at current rates of consumption".


The only problem: every one and their brother is going to implement lithium batteries for cars, trucks, and other big users... and before you know it...

Nor is there any serious estimate as to what will happen to the price of this commodity once demand explodes, or the EROI (Energy Return on Investment) of using this technology vs. others.

 

[julesa]

Whatever. Show me one geologist who's concerned about the world running out of lithium.

There's so much of it available that many production facilities are sitting idle, they can't compete with the cheap and plentiful South American supply. Assuming a serious ramp-up in production of electric cars, demand is projected to increase to something like 150 kilotons per year by 2020. The reserves that we know about today will last more than 200 years even at that rate.

There are probably still many large deposits we haven't started looking for, because there's no money in it, yet. I suppose it's possible we won't discover any more large sources of lithium (pretty f*@!^ing unlikely), and 200 years in the future there will be a big Mad Max scenario with people killing each other over lithium deposits. But I kinda doubt it.

I noticed you're no longer defending your buddy William Tahil, B.A.. Do you have any other sources of information?

 

[GTA1]

I never claimed the cited source as a "buddy".

The real problem is not peak Lithium, it is peak energy (petroleum, coal, hydro, gas, nuclear, etc.).

Not much good to have a secondary battery when the primary fuel to charge it is in trouble.

 

[julesa]

Another change in direction. That's fine, but you're going to have to play Chicken Little all by yourself from now on.

 

[swbluto]

His research company seems interesting but his credentials do seem dubious. I appreciate the "slightly off the wall" research, even if it might not be certified and confined within the halls of academia.

Anyways, to comment specifically on the electrostatic motor and high impedance cells, that might actually make good sense. What matters is output power, which depends on input power and efficiency, and assuming efficiency isn't crap, then a very high voltage may produce high power with low current. It's true that "zinc-air" and lithium-air has a very high energy density that's much more practical for electric vehicles than low impedance cells like a123, but their impedance is also high, so if you situate them so they'll provide low currents with high voltages, you may be able to have practical energy densities/battery weight while still having good amount of power on tap.

But, this all depends on the specifics. Can electrostatic motors deliver the necessary high power at really high voltages economically? If so, awesome! Also, I don't believe zinc-air is yet rechargeable (or has their been developed such a form?) and lithium-air is only 3-4 times energy dense than higher-energy dense conventional rechargeable lithium ions.

So, this does await further research.