Peak Lithium: it's the new oil

[swbluto]

There are probably still many large deposits we haven't started looking for, because there's no money in it, yet.

That's probably true. More exploration would come with higher demand and the subsequent higher price of lithium, but that doesn't generally bode well with "making lithium batteries more affordable" for the masses. However, future technology may make future exploration and extraction cheaper, which may increase supply which would put a downward pressure on lithium prices while also allowing lithium to be a more common consumable.

 

[spinningmagnets]

Whether My children run out of lithium, or my great, great, great (to the tenth power) grandchildren run out of lithium, whats so bad about living in a sod hut and growing potatoes? (rent "Braveheart", or "300")...peasant chicks ROCK!

 

[julesa]

There are probably still many large deposits we haven't started looking for, because there's no money in it, yet.

That's probably true. More exploration would come with higher demand and the subsequent higher price of lithium, but that doesn't generally bode well with "making lithium batteries more affordable" for the masses. However, future technology may make future exploration and extraction cheaper, which may increase supply which would put a downward pressure on lithium prices while also allowing lithium to be a more common consumable.

The cost of raw lithium is a small fraction of the cost of lithium battery manufacture.

University of Tokyo is doing some interesting research with those motors. Check out this video:
http://www.aml.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/movies/research/demed.mpg
But they are just now learning to make them useful as more than toys. It's WAY too early to be laying out all the best applications for these devices, and I can't imagine they'll ever be a competitive solution as vehicular motors.

kilovolts in a vehicular power plant? Eeeek.

Yes, I like offbeat research too, when it's actually research. This guy doesn't even know how to cite sources.

 

[John in CR]

The cost of raw lithium is a small fraction of the cost of lithium battery manufacture.

Exactly. We're talking about a few thousand dollars per metric ton. While lithium isn't a very abundant element on earth, there are huge known deposits just sitting there within easy reach. It's probably just that the form in S. America is the easiest to extract. With 25 billion pounds of the stuff just in one deposit in Nevada and lithium is actually a small portion of our batteries by weight, we've got nothing to worry about. Add in that lithium is recyclable and there really is little cause for concern, especially when we're probably looking at 10X energy capacity for the same amount of lithium within the next decade, along with as yet undiscovered new battery tech coming down the pipe.

Just look at the computer revolution that occurred in the last 15 years or so and how it changed the world. The coming energy revolution will dwarf that, and lithium batteries will most likely be the key trigger enabling it. Maybe it will just be a stepping stone until something better, cheaper and more abundant comes along, but even if we have to rely primarily on lithium for mobile use and banks of lead batteries in our homes, there's plenty of both to sustain the foreseeable future.

John

John

 

[deronmoped]

Peak anything only works in a static system.

Technology advances so fast that fears of running out of something are for the shortsighted. Ten, twenty years from now, no one knows what the best storage technology will be. Super Caps, fuel cells, different battery technology...

If anyone had a crystal ball, they could rule the world.

Deron.

 

[GTA1]

http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/11/01/phevs-face-lithium-supply-challenge/

This is a good summary / review of the debate between lithium supply scarcity / peak advocates and unlimited lithium advocates.

It has the usual crass name calling, shouting, and religious debate overtones.

Nearly as bad as discussing whether Islam or Hinduism is THE religion.

 

[GTA1]

This is for those who want to have a serious, scientific discussion of Peak Lithium and how / why it is directly related to Peak Energy....

http://www.tno.nl/downloads/Metal_minerals_scarcity.pdf

 

[julesa]

Consequences of unmitigated metal minerals scarcity
During the next few decades we will encounter serious problems mining many important
metal minerals at the desired extraction rates. Amongst them are all precious metals (gold,
silver and platinum-group metals), zinc, tin, indium, zirconium, cadmium, tungsten, copper,
manganese, nickel and molybdenum. A number of these metals are already in short supply
(e.g. indium). Metals like gallium, germanium and scandium are not incorporated in table 1
by lack of data, but these metals suffer from a very low extraction rate as they are by-products
(in very low concentrations) of other metal minerals; independent production growth is
therefore not an option, thus making an increasing role for these elements impossible.

Lithium is notably absent from that list, and later in the paper is suggested as an alternative for mined nickel.

Limited energy supply is a serious problem in many, many areas, of which mineral extraction is just one.
Running out of lithium is simply not a problem in the forseeable future. Nice try though, Chicken Little.

 

[GTA1]

Limited energy supply is a serious problem in many, many areas, of which mineral extraction is just one.
Running out of lithium is simply not a problem in the forseeable future. Nice try though, Chicken Little.

Nobody said "running out".

The discussion is about "peak output".

So please start a new thread on "running out" if you want.

This thread is about "peak output".

If you don't know the difference, kindly consult credible references or hire a qualified tutor.

 

[julesa]

Nobody said "running out".

It's a discussion about Peak Lithium in which we're all supposed to be very concerned about demand exceeding production output. When demand exceeds production, that means someone has run out of their supply and can't get more when they need it. Otherwise what's there to be concerned about?

The discussion is about "peak output".

So please start a new thread on "running out" if you want.

This thread is about "peak output".

If you don't know the difference, kindly consult credible references or hire a qualified tutor.

Thanks, but I have better things to do with my time than play stupid semantics games with a troll. Welcome to the ignore list.

 

[GTA1]

It's a discussion about Peak Lithium in which we're all supposed to be very concerned about demand exceeding production output. When demand exceeds production, that means someone has run out of their supply and can't get more when they need it. Otherwise what's there to be concerned about?

quod erat demonstrandum