classicalgas
1 kW
- Joined
- May 14, 2016
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- 317
...so, like cold fusion?
Telsa finally gets competition - Longbow Roadster
- Thread starter neptronix
- Start date
Not following the question....
JackFlorey
100 kW
Then I would say you simply can't get there without additional sensors, and won't be able to for quite some time. Even with those sensors, today it's not going to be comparable - but the sensor-fusion car will get there much sooner than the vision-only car.
classicalgas
1 kW
- Joined
- May 14, 2016
- Messages
- 317
like cold fusion..."we'll have it ten years from now"...for the last thirty years.
The problem is that it doesn't matter what may or even will be available in the future, regarding safety of a system that is on the road *now*.
What matters is making the system safe *now*, which at present means more sensors of different types that complement each ohter. There are "always" things one sensor can detect that another cannot, and things that one data processing method can that another cannot.
Even when vision sensors and processing are "perfect", there will still be things they cannot detect that require other non-visual sensors to detect. (not even considering what they have been "ordered" to ignore, and/or areas their vision may be limited to by fields of view).
Doesn't much matter whehter those sensors are lidar or sonar or simple microphones or accelerometers or some sensor that hasn't been invented yet
they just have to detect the things that the "eyes" can't.Maybe. Maybe not. Throughout history it wasn't the "best" version of something that won widespread adoption. Usually, it was whatever came first, and then it was improved upon by the many, since it won the adoption competition, and then that whatever was improved to levels that no one expected initially.
It's not really a secret why Musk's vision only driving is the path forward for Tesla. He said LIDAR is expensive, it's not solid state right now, so not automotive level reliable, and it works in the visual spectrum. Meaning if you can't see it with cameras, LIDAR won't see it either either.
And current LIDAR looks ugly, and Musk understands better than most that to succeed the product needs good aesthetics, in addition to the technical specifications. Apple understood this just in time too. So he isn't waiting for LIDAR to improve, the market isn't going to wait, it will pick a leader soon enough, and then they become the de-facto standard that everyone will latch on to build their own version. Just like x86 captured the personal computing market.
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Epithemeus
100 W
Considering lidar is basically a laser pointer spinning around at high speeds and the tops of autonomous cars don't look like a cheap Christmas display I'm pretty sure they aren't in the visual spectrum. Google says infrared.
Infrared is visible to cameras. And some snakes and fish. It's near visible spectrum for humans. Without getting into the semantics of the definition of what visible spectrum is, Musk's point still stands. LIDAR can't see what cameras can't see. So it doesn't even fit the definition of what some are calling for, which is sensors that can sense the environment in other spectrums. Like radio frequency radar, which goes through fog and rain.
There are solid state versions of LIDAR, including phased arrays (similar to how radar can be made without a moving dish/antenna to scan an area). Didn't look up relative costs.
Whether they are automotive-level reliable I don't know, as I haven't had one in hand, or looked up testing on them, but some of the companies making them do so specifically for automotive purposes, including self-driving cars.
The few hobby-level LIDARs I have investigated for my own uses are infrared, outside the visual spectrum. At least some of the solid state ones are as well (possibly all of them; I didn't investigate).
It is possible that it's still within the spectrum of the CCDs commonly used on visual-spectrum cameras, but most of those filter NIR and IR out by means of a coated glass over or behind the optics.
I suspect but haven't researched that within cameras used for automated systems these filters are not used, so that onboard NIR and IR light sources can be used with them in addition to normal ambient lighting, to provide a bright light source that will not affect human drivers / operators / etc. that are near the automated system.
The disadvantage of light below the visual spectrum is that it carries less information for the same bandwidth, but UV and higher lasers and light sources above the visual spectrum can be detrimental to living eyes and tissues so they are not typically used outside of closed systems.
That isn't self-evident from assorted visual design choices we've seen.
Very few people disliked Tesla designs before Musk got into politics.That isn't self-evident from assorted visual design choices we've seen.
j bjork
1 MW
I dont think teslas problems (here at least) has much to do with their self driving systems, or any other system for that matter.
I think it is all about Elon, or possibly teslas policys (that I think is Elon)
There has been a conflict with the union here for over a year I think, because tesla refuse to sign the "collective agreement" that normally the big company's do. I dont think there are any big disagreements over the deal, they just refuse as a principle.
The unions dont have the influence they once did, so tesla have been able to continue their work with some extra hassle here and there. But it sure leaves a sour taste in the mouth of those who cares about workers rights.
Then there is the fascism, that I suppose maybe has been a thing for a long time when you put 1 and 1 together. I think most of the buyers of electric cars are more left politically and are not amused when key persons in a company supports the far right. The spread of disinformation and everything that comes with it also puts people off.
Now when the USA attacks EU, NATO etc it sure dosent help as well.
I think it is all about Elon, or possibly teslas policys (that I think is Elon)
There has been a conflict with the union here for over a year I think, because tesla refuse to sign the "collective agreement" that normally the big company's do. I dont think there are any big disagreements over the deal, they just refuse as a principle.
The unions dont have the influence they once did, so tesla have been able to continue their work with some extra hassle here and there. But it sure leaves a sour taste in the mouth of those who cares about workers rights.
Then there is the fascism, that I suppose maybe has been a thing for a long time when you put 1 and 1 together. I think most of the buyers of electric cars are more left politically and are not amused when key persons in a company supports the far right. The spread of disinformation and everything that comes with it also puts people off.
Now when the USA attacks EU, NATO etc it sure dosent help as well.
I don't like the idea that we put one of the richest businessmen in the USA in government in the USA, in positions where he can swing things in the favor of himself and his business interests.
This is not illegal. Our system is corrupt as it's always been but the current administration decides to be blatant about it instead of lie about it ( business as usual ). This makes certain people mad who are maybe not aware that it always works like that.. until now.
But i've always been disgusted by that no matter what party or when.
As a business person, i see it as a cheap move for a CEO to get their company in bed with the government. As a consumer it means they are probably going to deliver a crappy product in the future because they'll develop fat stupid monopoly syndrome afterwards.
These things about a company tell me that their product is about to start sucking:
- Company bought by VC or changed ownership
- Got a large amount of government money/influence
- Owner increasingly making more enemies or just being a sociopath in general
This is a big part why i'm grateful to see companies like Longbow competing with Tesla.
This is not illegal. Our system is corrupt as it's always been but the current administration decides to be blatant about it instead of lie about it ( business as usual ). This makes certain people mad who are maybe not aware that it always works like that.. until now.
But i've always been disgusted by that no matter what party or when.
As a business person, i see it as a cheap move for a CEO to get their company in bed with the government. As a consumer it means they are probably going to deliver a crappy product in the future because they'll develop fat stupid monopoly syndrome afterwards.
These things about a company tell me that their product is about to start sucking:
- Company bought by VC or changed ownership
- Got a large amount of government money/influence
- Owner increasingly making more enemies or just being a sociopath in general
This is a big part why i'm grateful to see companies like Longbow competing with Tesla.
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I guess we could add reason #6 why i won't buy one.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/...-images-recorded-by-customer-cars-2023-04-06/
I don't want my whereabouts livestreamed to a giant corporation that's now connected to the government.
That's an insane thing to pay money to get subjected to.
It's cool because it could be used for your personal security but not cool because you don't have control over the data, which puts you in the red, personal security wise.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/...-images-recorded-by-customer-cars-2023-04-06/
I don't want my whereabouts livestreamed to a giant corporation that's now connected to the government.
That's an insane thing to pay money to get subjected to.
It's cool because it could be used for your personal security but not cool because you don't have control over the data, which puts you in the red, personal security wise.
What can he do? Enact federal tax rebates to the tune of $50 BILLION to send directly to Tesla so wealthy people get a discount to buy fancy fast electric cars?
What can he do? Enact federal tax rebates to the tune of $50 BILLION to send directly to Tesla so wealthy people get a discount to buy fancy fast electric cars?
Man, it seems like yesterday you had to either be an oil or defense company to get that kind of money.
Now we got big electric. Be careful what you wish for
Be careful what you wish for
That $50 BILLION transfer of federal tax money to Tesla already happened under Obama. And it doesn't even account for state and local subsidies, which were also substantial. He's clearly not in it for the money, as being so public just opens oneself to extreme levels of oversight and scrutiny.
Yeah, and we didn't save the polar bears but we did get a huge amount of advancement in the state of the art.. starting when people almost universally thought electric cars as a joke.
Now we live in the future and it's like, kinda meh, isn't it?
Now we live in the future and it's like, kinda meh, isn't it?
JackFlorey
100 kW
?? Right. But you weren't asking about widespread adoption. You were asking about specific performance i.e. "better than the best human driver." And that will happen sooner with more sensors.
Yes, absolutely, someone may come out with something that doesn't work very well and be successful despite that. Heck, if you price it low enough, it will sell even if it sucks. That's capitalism.
1) There are solid state LIDARS, often called ToF cameras.
2) They are not in the visual spectrum.
3) They don't work like cameras. Cameras need illumination. LIDAR provides its own illumination. And not in the visible spectrum.
You wouldn't even be able to tell if a car had LIDAR if it was well integrated. All that's required is an IR transparent opening.
Again, yes, the market might decide that something that sucked - but is cheap - is worth buying. But that will be far from your goal of "better than the best human driver."
JackFlorey
100 kW
Yep.
I will add a note here that Tesla will live or die depending on whether Musk remains Trump's golden boy.
ANY autonomous vehicle will kill people. Eventually a 5 year old will run out in front of an autonomous vehicle and be killed. And it might be that even the best human driver anywhere could not have stopped in time; there was no way to avoid the accident. But in the US that doesn't matter - Tesla will be sued for tens of billions, and juries are very sympathetic to mothers weeping over dead children, especially when they were killed by an evil billionaire in the name of profit. And there will be a lot of these lawsuits.
If, at that time, Trump can instruct the justice system to not prosecute any of these lawsuits, then Tesla will prosper.
If, by that time, Trump sees Musk like he sees Fauci or Giuliani now, then Tesla will be sued out of existence.
eMark
100 kW
From news reports it sure sounds like China's BYD (Tesla competitor) has a leg up on Musk's EVs ...
i'm old enuf to remember when Japan shipping plastic trinkets (toys). I still have a plastic Mr. Peanut. When in college one of my professors had a VW Beetle shipped to America. Then Sony helical-scan video recorder followed by Honda, Toyota, etc, etc.
Will China ever be allowed to build BYD cars in say San Diego to avoid 50% tariff
On Sunday (3/23/25), China's BYD announced a new model to take on Tesla. Its Qin L model has a starting price in China of 119,800 yuan, while a basic version of Tesla's Model 3 is priced at 235,500 yuan. In terms of worldwide sales BYD overtook Tesla in 2024 as the world's top EV seller ...
Last week, BYD's founder Wang Chuanfu announced new battery charging technology, which he said could charge an EV in five minutes. That compares with around 15 minutes to charge a Tesla using its supercharger system.
In February, BYD announced that its so-called "God's Eye" advanced driver-assistance technology would be available free in all its models.
Last week, BYD's founder Wang Chuanfu announced new battery charging technology, which he said could charge an EV in five minutes. That compares with around 15 minutes to charge a Tesla using its supercharger system.
In February, BYD announced that its so-called "God's Eye" advanced driver-assistance technology would be available free in all its models.
Will China ever be allowed to build BYD cars in say San Diego to avoid 50% tariff
eMark
100 kW
Musk recently had plans of investing 5 billion dollars in Monterrey, MX. building Tesla's hoping to better compete with BYD. That plan was put on hold after Trump's tariff (as high as 100%) on nations (and American companies?) that plan on using Mexico as a more competitive edge to America's labor costs.
How long before BYD (BuildYourDream) is assembling EVs in Mexico and/or Canada?
What Is "Fair Game" In A Trade War?
Do we now have a better idea why Musk is heading up the DOGE and why Trump wants Canada and Mexico to join America as its 51st and 52nd state. Does Trump even have an end game plan to defeat China's grand takeover or is it more a case if you can't beat them then play along with them. How long before Chinese BYD cars begin arriving in America?
Note: Elon Musk says his Shanghai factory, Tesla's largest factory outside the US, makes the 'highest quality" Teslas (Model 3, Model Y, and a new Megapack battery).
What Is "Fair Game" In A Trade War?
Note: Elon Musk says his Shanghai factory, Tesla's largest factory outside the US, makes the 'highest quality" Teslas (Model 3, Model Y, and a new Megapack battery).
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j bjork
1 MW
Dont you have BYD in USA? We have them and a few more here, no big sellers though.
I think MAXUS have sold pretty good of their vans.
I think MAXUS have sold pretty good of their vans.
eMark
100 kW
BYD Atto 3, was the best-selling EV in Sweden in July 2023 (721), beating out other popular models like the Volkswagen ID.4 and Tesla Model Y. BYD has also been successful selling eBuses in Sweden. The Atto 3 features a heat pump system as standard feature for battery heating) to extend low temperature driving range e.g.Sweden.
Besides Sweden BYD ecars are imported to numerous countries, including Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, the Middle East, but not America.
BYD is exploring a manufacturing plant in Mexico. They've been selling their EVs in Mexico since 2023, and aiming to double sales to 80,000 in 2025. BYD has put their Canadian plans on hold due to 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.
Besides Sweden BYD ecars are imported to numerous countries, including Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, the Middle East, but not America.
BYD is exploring a manufacturing plant in Mexico. They've been selling their EVs in Mexico since 2023, and aiming to double sales to 80,000 in 2025. BYD has put their Canadian plans on hold due to 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.
j bjork
1 MW
That sounds very strange. I look at a list here about ev sales 2024, BYD Atto 3 are on place 46 and sold 306 cars. That is 0,32% of the market. Tesla model Y is number 1 with 18293 cars and 19.39%.
Number 2 is volvo EX30 with 7100 cars and 7.53%.
That has changed quite a lot this year though, I think tesla has lost almost 50% while other brands have gained sales.
eMark
100 kW
721 was just for July 2023. The following page/chart gives a better overall brand comparison with Tesla selling more than BYD in 2023 ...
electrek.co
in September 2008, Berkshire Hathaway quietly bought 225 million shares of BYD (CN:002594) (HK:1211) (BYDDY) for about $230 million (almost 10% of the company). As of July 2024 BH owns less than 5% of the Hong Kong H shares. Berkshire offloaded half its holding through sales in 2022 and 2023, after BYD skyrocketed nearly 600% to a record high in April 2022 from the start of 2008.
In September 2023, BYD announced it had shipped its first batch of Yuan Plus EVs (also known as the Atto 3 in overseas markets) to customers in Mexico City and Guadalajara, expanding its North American presence. BYDs aggressive worldwide growth looks to outpace Tesla in overall sales (including Sweden?) in 2025?
This Chinese electric SUV was the top-selling EV in Sweden in July, Tesla Model Y on top YTD
The top-selling EV in Sweden last month was not the Volkswagen ID.4, a Volvo model, or even the Tesla Model...
electrek.co
In September 2023, BYD announced it had shipped its first batch of Yuan Plus EVs (also known as the Atto 3 in overseas markets) to customers in Mexico City and Guadalajara, expanding its North American presence. BYDs aggressive worldwide growth looks to outpace Tesla in overall sales (including Sweden?) in 2025?
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