TESLA to Plans to Build World’s Biggest Battery Factory!

[LockH]

Oh oh. I see the Lonely Old Guy had made an appearance in this thread, (Notice how the writer is "attacked" without one specific example of the "non-sense" referred to earlier?)

Sad, really. I had actually offered to buy him one $20 annual Membership in local "Toronto Electric Riders Assoc.", but some may get tired real fast re these vacuous attacks.

 

[Dauntless]

Oh oh. I see the Lonely Old Guy had made an appearance in this thread, (Notice how the writer is "attacked" without one specific example of the "non-sense" referred to earlier?)

Tell you what, Sir Lock, don't take this as an attack on you, but when its me the goofballs are hacking up furballs at there's no need to rush to the defense. I don't say much of anything until they're getting more obstructionist. (When they really do seem menacing it's time to deal with the insurgency, but 'til that time. . . .) I don't even make the drug jokes others do.

Especially here, where the incoherence isn't just WHAT he's complaining about, we don't know for sure he means the poster just before him or. . . .

 

[johnrobholmes]

Building up a factory for "what it can do" is not the same as looking at current sales of the parent company. So it can/will make batteries fast enough for a car per minute, but Tesla only builds one every 30? That guarantees a buffer for Tesla to have OEM and ODM contracts that can be fullfilled without eating into their own supply. Properly designed manufacturing systems will typically break even on machinery with as little as 25% productivity time, and I would bet dollars to donuts that this factory won't be far off that mark. How they set up real estate and fixed overhead costs will determine just how low production can go without bleeding money. On top of this, Tesla should get a nice reduction in battery costs that can either boost the bottom line and subsidize the factory in lean times, or it will reduce the final price and increase sales volume. Either way, winners are at every side of the table.


In the end, Elon is sticking his neck our really far and I applaud him for being the risk taker that could finally change our automotive industry. This will make him (again) or break him.


The Olduvai Theory has one large fallacy, it assumes that energy production is unit indicative of progress. While on the base level it is the drive of our progress, one cannot say that each watt contributes X amount of industrial revolution. It completely ignores energy efficiency gains, disruptive technologies that reduce consumption, and the glut of wasteful use that is in-no-way related to progress. I look forward to per capita energy production going down, it means we will have to wise up as a society and be aware of the fuels we are squandering. It's about time we enforce that Justin Beiber does NOT deserve electricity for his mic.

 

[LockH]

Hiya Master LRH.

Personally, I just regret when anybuddy uses these online forums to "attack" ANYONE? But do instead hope anyone WILL challenge/question ANYTHING written here or elsewhere. NOT a person? But certainly any one specific item they may have written.

And being here (sitting at the feet of the Ebiker Gods of ES), I only hope to learn.

Myself, I come from generations of "military men", but some in my family were writers, on the theory "the pen is mightier than the sword". Especially one guy that wrote dozens of books, most about childhood education, many still in Toronto libraries. This gent:
https://archive.org/details/cihm_13045

... That little book about "equal rights" for women. In 1895. But of course he was just a "silly fool"?

As an old sailor might say,

Fair winds and following seas
L

 

[Hillhater]

....... Properly designed manufacturing systems will typically break even on machinery with as little as 25% productivity time, and I would bet dollars to donuts that this factory won't be far off that mark. .....

I bet there is a bunch of industrial facility designers and business planners who would like to know how to make that happen. ,!
Any modern process manufacturing plant is designed to run at maximum output, minimum downtime, max efficiency etc.
Investing big $$$$'s in redundant or under utilised capacity is business death ..quick time !
Remember also this is to be a " full cycle" (raw mats input,....finished product output) process plant .
That means there will be numerous chemical and manufacturing processes running which cannot simply be turned on and off , or slowed down even, when not needed,...likely once started these processes will need to run 24/7.
Sure, they will be able to progressively scale up capacity during the start up phase, but once operational the GF will have to work at near max capacity ..and high efficiency... Or it will be a folly.

Oh and remember , I said that 500k Mod3 cars per year would only need 50% of the GF capacity anyway, so there is always capacity for Other uses.!

 

[speedmd]

The myth of continuous production. No where in the world has it been done without growing inventory costs out the window and killing profitability. You make what you need when you need it or most certainly you will be costing yourself much more than the fantasy of maximizing process productivity hopes to save you. Yes some processes are a bitch to get going and dial in, and when you do it finally you want to make it worth your while. However, your time/ money is always better spent reducing the setup times and perfecting the process steps needed to dial them in quickly and perfectly each and every time than to keep them running 24/7 in most ever process you can think of or run a suitable size batch and then shut down or damp them back to a suitable idle/standby mode.

 

[johnrobholmes]

Sounds like running my lathe. Spent 6 hours dialing in a program so it would run reliable on a 3.5 minute part. So I'm running 300 to 500 while the machine is set up.

 

[speedmd]

You run 500 if they are sold, or guaranteed to sell relatively quickly. The problems comes in when the customer calls and has a change or god forbid a problem with the parts. Thats when the pissing contests start. Most times you ran all the raw material and your stuck waiting for stock. Only one that wins is fed ex.

 

[johnrobholmes]

It's parts for me, good selling motors. Should have 8 weeks before I need to run more.

 

[speedmd]

Beautiful, you decide when and if you nearing a model/ design change and adjust as needed. Idiot proofing the process setup/fixtures/ and part inspections ( many times eliminate inspection) is always worth the time and trouble it takes.

 

[johnrobholmes]

I have op stops at every critical measure point so we can test tolerances and elastic deformation during the process. Bearing press fits are kinda fun to dial in.

 

[johnrobholmes]

I'm cutting my teeth on the little motors before sticking my neck out on bigger ev stuff

 

[Hillhater]

You don't take $4-5 Bn of investor money, use it to build a production plant , And then watch it sit idle for 75% of the time.! If you even suspected that might happen you would leave the money invested where it's actually making a return.
Any significant manufacturing PROCESS such as thermal, chemical, etc for high volume throughput is designed for continuous operation to prevent huge losses from start stop operation. "Batch" production does not rate for high speed process manufacturing. This plant should be producing over 200,000 cells per hour...every hour !
Quality and precision has to be designed into the manufacturing process's with statistical process control techniques to ensure optimum product quality.
Any time a plant is not producing goods at high efficiency (80-90% OOE) , it is likely to be unprofitable.
The only time a well run production plant is not producing goods , is for planned maintenance, which is also constantly reviewed and minimised.

 

[Hillhater]

The myth of continuous production. No where in the world has it been done without growing inventory costs out the window and killing profitability. ....

Sorry but I have to disagree here also.
There are many industries that run efficient continuous production plants.
The classic example would be the power industry with numerous facilities generating base load power 24/7...because it is not easy to start/stop a large generating process on a regular basis.....especially if it is nuclear !
Oil refineries, Steel mills, glass, even Coffee processing are all likewise "continuous" 24/7 production processes.
Inventory costs and controller is a refined art, generally tied to customer agreements for sales and deliveries.
You don't just launch into producing millions of products a day without some serious solid long term sales contracts that detail off take processes and penalty clauses.

 

[LockH]

Bloody accountants.

 

[Dauntless]

You're all such fussy tailors today.

 

[speedmd]

The myth of continuous production. No where in the world has it been done without growing inventory costs out the window and killing profitability. ....

Sorry but I have to disagree here also.
There are many industries that run efficient continuous production plants.
The classic example would be the power industry with numerous facilities generating base load power 24/7...because it is not easy to start/stop a large generating process on a regular basis.....especially if it is nuclear !
Oil refineries, Steel mills, glass, even Coffee processing are all likewise "continuous" 24/7 production processes.
Inventory costs and controller is a refined art, generally tied to customer agreements for sales and deliveries.
You don't just launch into producing millions of products a day without some serious solid long term sales contracts that detail off take processes and penalty clauses.

Again the Myth! You generate what the demand is. You do not run 100% just because you can. Even in a steel mill, it is a batch process than idle. Chemical, a batch process! Have been to the movie. Demand is still not there, so you suggest they build a smaller plant and run it full time, rather than building what can handle a significant production demand increase when and if they need it.

Lets say, you have always wanted to get a Mercedes Benz sports coupe and you saved up most of your adult life and finally got one. Now that you have it, Your Idea, is that you will drive it night and day whether you need to or not just to make it more worth your while. Factory is the same thing.

 

[speedmd]

I have op stops at every critical measure point so we can test tolerances and elastic deformation during the process. Bearing press fits are kinda fun to dial in.

I hear you! It is always fun stuff getting the fits dialed in. Once you do, and the demand is there, invest in the custom tooling to eliminate the fit issues such as custom ground reams and the like to eliminate the worry of loose or tight bearing pockets. You will not regret it. You will free up your cnc centers to do the hard profiling work and will be able to do the press fits in even cheap old dedicated machines /fixtures with never a worry that something will not be perfect. Other thing I have seen used with great results is to use your fixtures to verify fit / dimensions of the previous operation. If it does not fit, stop the presses!

 

[johnrobholmes]

Very good ideas there speedmd, it is obvious you have experience in production facilities. I'm pretty green to the production side and have a machine that is way over my own capabilities. But it gives me room to grow.


And I bought the Mazak because I knew that keeping it running 30% of the time was enough to pay for loan and overhead, which was a level that I can sustain with only in house work. Everything else is bonus, at least once my skills are good enough to actually get 40 hours of productivity from 40 hours of work.

 

[velias]

None of this matters,
my prediction, knowing what I know about the typical nevadan, is that the place will go up in flames shortly after it is built. Some bone-headed,tattooed, missing tooth employee/high school dropout will throw his cigarette in the wrong trash pile and blow the whole place up one day.

 

[speedmd]

We have seen enough of RENO 911 to understand what your saying. LOL

Most of the plant/ process steps, I am sure will be automated. Making the same thing over and over again will need very little operator interpretation, and leave very little room for mishaps by low skilled workers. Imagine most of the process will be "lights out" / sealed off other than maintenance/ alarm clearing.

 

[Hillhater]

. You do not run 100% just because you can. .

You do if you want to stay in business and maximise your profit . Idle time costs money in a capital intensive business.

. Lets say, you have always wanted to get a Mercedes Benz sports coupe and you saved up most of your adult life and finally got one. Now that you have it, Your Idea, is that you will drive it night and day whether you need to or not just to make it more worth your while. Factory is the same thing.

We are not talking fun rides, with no financial return on its utilization,
we are discussing sensible business planning and investment
But Yes,.. if that Mercedes Benz is a Taxi cab or a commercial van/truck.
Your business plan should be to keep the wheels turning 24/7 , multiple drivers per vehicle etc .
If you dont do it ..some other guy will work his way in a steal your trade.

 

[speedmd]

speedmd wrote:
. You do not run 100% just because you can. .

You do if you want to stay in business and maximise your profit . Idle time costs money in a capital intensive business.

More 18th century thinking hillhater. Time you get out in the real world and see the lessons learned the last half century. You run a power plant, and you pump out more than the demand, and somehow your making more profit. Run the second and third diesel or gas turbine generator even when no one is calling for power. Maybe you can bake some cookies to re cope some of the loss running the plant.

Your run a mining operation, and you run the shovel night and day just to stock pile ore. I don't know any responsible manager that would do that, as he would now have to pay tax on the inventory in the stock pile never mind all the man hours and fuel costs that he can not recover in short order just from digging and moving the stuff around to pile it. He also runs the risk of market variations tanking its value.

You run a trucking company and you attempt to run the trucks 24/7. You end up in jail when stopped at the first weigh station past your allotted time on the road. Or you end up dead from driving tired and crashing. No place here in the states allows a truck to stay on the road continuous regardless how many drivers you put through it. It is a recipe for disaster because bean counters like what your describing will act like that is the way to make fantasy money.

You run a battery plant, and all of a sudden cars start burning up. Just a few of them, but got the wrong folks attention. The feds come in a want some answers, and you need to make some changes quick on their demand. What do you do with all the material that is chopped up into little obsolete parts now. Some of the raw materials may take weeks/ months to get. You were running full steam making parts and used it all up because the stamping process is such a bitch to get right, when you do as you suggested, you run all the material. No way to change dimension x1 a few thou, and put the changes in motions that same day. Who eats the newly classified bad/suspect inventory. Are you yet seeing the suicide mission you are headed for.

Utilization is a fools mission. Availability is the name in the game. Customer need 20,000 of product x, 10,000 of product z, and 15,000 of product y and you can respond within minutes to get things rolling into the packaging department and out the door the same day. If you think for one minute that Musk is not planning to turn production on a dime you are just way out of touch with how a modern feeder plant operates. Go into any modern auto plant and see for yourself. You have a red model x, followed by a yellow model y, all day long. It is called a pull system. Check it out. What your describing is ripe with stocking tons of unused inventory with all its evils. I can site case after case of the pitfalls I have personally seen from your antiquated business/ production model. This is why bean counters should never decide what folks like Musk do to make great products. They have a hard enough time with just the numbers on a page.

 

[teslanv]

It's called "Just In Time" manufacturing.
Minimizing opportunity and holding costs and maximizing profit.

 

[dnmun]

wow, speedy never worked in a production plant, that's for sure. almost all large scale mining operations run 24/7/365 as well as most manufacturing plants. i can guarantee this plant in nevada will run 24/7/365 except when sections are shut for maintenance. this kinda capital does not sit around and drink beer at night. starting and stopping a production line like this is not gonna happen.

they will create as many production lines as can fit in the building and then if that is not enuff, they will expand the building or set up a new plant at a new location but most likely will just expand this plant.