The 15% Unemployment Bet

[safe]

Only The Desperate?

Technically I have not "worked" since 2001... but it's because I have not had a need to. In any economy there is a certain percentage of people that find ways to live outside the system.

So the unemployment as calculated by the "officials" is probably not as far off as some critics might suggest.

There is always a large "discouraged worker" population mixed in with the truly needy.

A lot of us like to work when it's an era that is exciting. I loved working hard during the dot.coms because it was a thrill. I even loved remodeling my California house as a kind of "work" when that was the national pastime. Now we have "Going Green" and I am "working" towards that... but at present I have no "job" doing the "Going Green" profession, but I fully expect to one day.

So I think the "official" statistics aren't all that bad... it reflects the true level of desperation in the system.

A lot of us just don't feel at all desperate.

 

[safe]

First, it's really ironic that you picked unemployment as the stat you want to bet on, because right now it's the biggest indicator of heading towards depression level.

That's why I find it interesting that you are so timid about taking the bet.

There's nothing riding on it... no money, no nothing.... it's just a way for us to have a metric to wager upon.

The "official" unemployment rate... does it stay BELOW 15% or does it go above?

Are you now ready to place your bet?

 

[EMF]

No one will bet with you - you are a welch.

 

[safe]

You tend to fool yourself EMF.

I had fine print last time and you skipped over it.

I have fine print this time too and you ignored it.

You are starting develop a pattern of "jumping to conclusions" despite the opposite information staring you in the face.

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The bet is very simple:

The "official" unemployment rate... does it stay BELOW 15% or does it go above?

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"Fantasy" numbers about unemployment do not count. Many people simply choose not to work (like myself) so you can't include everyone in the "desperate" category.

The "official" number is "good enough" to make bets on...

 

[EMF]

This is not about fine print. It is about you. No one will bet you. You have shot yourself in the foot in these forums. You have no credibility.

 

[safe]

Starting today and up until the first day of 2010 those that take my side of the bet believe that the 'official' unemployment rate of the United States will not exceed 15%.

Well, so far I have two people who bet (polled) and have not formally declared.

The bet stands... take it for what it is or go away...

 

[EMF]

*crickets*

:lol:

 

[gogo]

Here in Iowa your unemployment claim expires after a year. To the best of my knowledge the government only counts those drawing unemployment benefits. Two weeks ago 25% of the people around me got laid off at the hydraulic transmission factory where I work. Yesterday they offered severance packages AGAIN to anyone else who wants to leave voluntarily. The shit is happening. Serious shit.

 

[safe]

So there are two people willing to poll, but not willing to bet.

Wimps. :lol:

 

[TPA]

Put me on the record as greater than 15% by Jan 1, 2010.

 

[safe]

Put me on the record as greater than 15% by Jan 1, 2010.

A man with courage... I respect that.

Wager accepted.

(so at present we have four wimps and one real man)

 

[vanilla ice]

Dooooood.

 

[safe]

Is this like that scene in "Saving Private Ryan" where the wounded soldiers are walking past and we are having fun with dog tags?

Where's Private Ryan?...

(is the idea of betting on misery too painful to face?)

 

[vanilla ice]

Are you gonna call me a wimp now?

 

[Anonymous]

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[TPA]

How do you do all that links thing?

I just had to be on the record. To me, this is a no brainer.

The figure they will try to hide is going to be inflation. I think most folks expect high unemployment and it will be an excuse for yet another bailout to create more Government jobs/Government control.

 

[Anonymous]

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[safe]

Of course you're going to see 15% unemployment.

You know you could have just said that and skipped the rest.

Okay, so you are in on the bet... and I purposely set it at the low level of only 15% to make it a sporting contest.

I try to be fair... I could have set it at 20% and then no one would bet against me. :wink:

Don't forget it's only the "official" number that counts.

 

[Anonymous]

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[safe]

But don't forget: governments will lie about employment numbers.

Of course they will... but we're not betting on the truth, we are betting on what truth the government will allow us to see.

Will the government allow us to have an "official" 15% unemployment rate? Only time will tell.

(Obama wants to be the "jobs, jobs, jobs" president so he's trying hard to prevent more job losses)

 

[TPA]

But don't forget: governments will lie about employment numbers.

Of course they will... but we're not betting on the truth, we are betting on what truth the government will allow us to see.

How bad can Government lies get with the media firmly in tow?

Kim Jong Il officially scored an 18 his very first time out golfing.

So if they want to hide the unemployment numbers, lets see how big a pair they have.
Will they actually post really low numbers when it is obvious it is way higher?

I still think that if they lie, it will still make it to 15%.


Another reason they will surely lie about inflation is because Social Security payments are pegged to inflation. They already do not include food and fuel in the calculation, they took those things out so they wouldn't have to increase SS payments.

 

[Anonymous]

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[Link]

That's why I find it interesting that you are so timid about taking the bet.

ROTFLPMP ...

Timid about betting with the one who is consistently wrong on everything?
EMF is right, the more you talk the more absolutely clueless you sound ...

Days after the whole shadow banking system melted down, all of the large US investment banks disappeared,
Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and AIG and Fannie/Freddie needed life support, you said we can all take a big
sigh of relief that the crisis is over! You've been repeating that chant ever since, but in case you haven't noticed,
those events spawed a massive domino that keeps rolling, and it gets worse every day, not better. All of these
failures cause other failures, it's like each domino topples several other dominos.

You have no ability to process information, see trends, make correlations, understand change, or accept reality.
Look into the trends below, and this is just the beginning, the real crash hasn't even started yet.
That will be when too much money expansion spawns panic over dollar devaluation.

[snip]

The looming commercial property meltdown will be like a dagger in the heart of bank recapitalization.
This is double deadly crisis because it also means property taxes will take a deep dive.
And corporations will have more and more waves of layoffs, many will go bankrupt.
Even those that already cut staff, will do 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounds of layoffs.
Of course you're going to see 15% unemployment.

Wall of Text pwnt.

 

[safe]

Eventually we too will have Emporers:

...because history repeats.

The Emporer will not want embarassing numbers. :wink:

(so in effect I'm voting that Obama is a success)

 

[Anonymous]

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