LI-ghtcycle said:
I think you could do that right now with the average bicycle commuter as long as you can break the "it's cheating" barrier. The average person doesn't want to leave the comfort and security of their car.
This is bad news, because if people who are already bike commuters is the only significant pool of potential eBikers it is limited to 1-2% of the population in North America.
However, I see the same thing: Friends who already bike commute are curious about my ebike and that I use it for almost all my transportation. (Took the xmas tree home in the kids trailer. Can do my shopping with just panniers etc)
But people who don't bike commute can simply not get it into their head that transportation without a car is an alternative. This seems to go for people who are otherwise fairly health concious (but always drive their car to the trailhead). So the biggest problem might be to get people out of their cars.
This mean busting some common perceptions/myths:
Speed: For many/most trips taken the car is no faster than alternatives such as eBikes, bike, walking, public transport etc if one considers end-to-end time including parking.
Cost: If the cost of each drive was itemized like on a long distance phone bill people might re-think. Similarly, pay-per-driving-day registration and insurance options and other ways of making the cost incremental would help people gradually shifting away from the automatic "take the car" mentality. Think of coin showers. Even though it is just quarters, the physical act of having to feed money into the machine tend to make people save. If we can get the same mental attitude to car usage (and other resource waste) we would be a long way ahead.
Safety: Despite the billions of dollars that have gone into making both cars and the road network safe, driving is not particularly safe compared to other means of transportation. However, the average person is mislead to think the car is safe, and the bike unsafe. This was really the main message in the "Copenhagenize" videos. Unfortunately the two ES threads on those topics derailed into a helmet vs no-helmet arguing, which is a comparably minor issue.
Comfort: This is a subjective issue, and perhaps the most difficult to overcome. Of course rain and snow are not fun, but even here in Edmonton, Canada more than half the year is pleasant enough. Last spring I had to commute down town during rush hour. The first few times I showed up with a bike helmet the building attendants and secre4taries in the office tower would assume I was lost and in the wrong place. After a while I was accepted and greeted with my helmet. I described how I biked in half the time of the car commuters (using the largely empty bus/bike lanes and bike paths), and how on nice sunny days I liked to take a detour ride to the river valley on my way home. However, while the car people after some time came to accept that eBiking was a good choice for me, it never occurred to them to consider it for themselves. When I think about taking the car and often getting stuck or frustrated in traffic I feel disgust. When I think about the bike i feel joy. There seems to be no way to transfer the subjective experience to people who don;t bike the way one can argue numbers for speed, cost and safety.