Walking is safer than driving? What about bicycling?

[swbluto]

Here's an article that compares the death rate between pedestrians and those in vehicles: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bottleneck/2008/07/pedestrian-deat.html

In summary, per 100 million miles, 1.42 pedestrians were killed while 1.3 motorists were killed.

Seems frightening doesn't it? Driving must surely be safer!

Except, there's this mechanism that many don't seem to recognize called "induced demand". Basically, if you make something more available, people tend to consume/demand more of it. An example of this is that if someone is presented a meal twice as large as another one, they're more likely to eat more. In the same way, someone who can travel farther more easily will tend to travel farther, more often. For example, look at Toshi's thread at http://www.endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3999&start=285 where he commonly plots his e-biking distances earlier in the thread and compare it to some of the later travels on his more recently purchased mp3 motorcycle. Big difference, eh?

The idea? A motorist will tend to travel many more miles per year than a pedestrian would be willing to. I know my average walking distance per year is probably around 1000 miles or less; When I was driving, I was probably putting in around 12000 miles per year. What does this mean? Basically I had a [(12000/1000)*(1.3/1.42)]=10.9 times greater chance of dying from driving than I did walking in a year! Considering I'm from the male 18-25 age group and my driving style can be wreckless(I've accidentally ran a few red lights - I just didn't notice them until my passengers did.), my chance of dying per was probably far greater than that! Like, probably, 20 times or more. My walking behavior, on the other hand, is probably considerably safer than the "average pedestrian" as I've thought out scenarios and what I reasoned to be "safe habits" over my career as a pedestrian.

For bicycles, I don't really know the numbers but is it something like 4 times as much per 100,000,000 miles? And considering that the average e-cyclist travels 6-8 times less per year than they would in a car, it might be argued that e-cycling is safer per year than driving. Sure, a given crash would be less gory than if it were in a car, but the point is that a crash is less likely to happen per year so the overall risk might be less than driving. Given the health benefits of walking/bicycling, the "long term health" is probably maximized, as well.

I'm putting the links here because I'm getting sick of the links breaking everytime I edit this post.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bottleneck/2008/07/pedestrian-deat.html http://www.endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3999&start=285

 

[dogman dan]

Nothing like cheap gas and a comfy climate controlled seat to make you drive around in aimless circles.

By the same logic I really increased my danger on a bike. With no motor, i would ride about 100 miles a year. With the motor, I just did 3000. I had only done about 200 when I went to the hospital last may. :lol:

 

[swbluto]

Perhaps there should be another measure for people who ride walmart bikes. :wink: My pedals fell off while riding mine, so I do question the average walmart bike's safety.

http://www.bicyclinglife.com/SafetySkills/answer6.htm

Here's someone who already did the comparisons and measured in a more "meaningful metric", I suppose. I don't actually know because I don't how many hours a day a person bicycles versus driving(A person would take longer bicycling than driving to get from point A to point B, but an average person may allocate more time to driving during the day by adding points C,D, E, F and so forth on average than that "oh so hard" bicycling. Also, it seems likely bicycling would pick closer substitutes for longer distance destinations. I.e., I went to the shopko 1 mile away rather than the Wal-mart 15 miles away back in Spokane), so the "fatalities per hour" is likely not directly comparable but it does seem to suggest cycling is safer than driving over the long term. I would really like the "hard data" to do my own conclusions, though.

Further up in the page, though, motorcycling had a far higher chance of dying per 100 million hours of driving and it seems possible electric bikes can be more appropriately compared to them than bicycles.

Source http://www.bicyclinglife.com/SafetySkills/answer1.htm

 

[dontsendbubbamail]

I don't know how they come up with some of the numbers, but I liked this diagram. It comes from the perspective of your going to dye, now what is going to kill you. It seems to be saying there is less chance of dying from riding a bike then dying while walking.

Bubba

 

[swbluto]

I don't know how they come up with some of the numbers, but I liked this diagram. It comes from the perspective of your going to dye, now what is going to kill you. It seems to be saying there is less chance of dying from riding a bike then dying while walking.

Bubba

I'm pretty sure that they derived that diagram from the perspective of the "average person". The average person drives far more than they walk as a pedestrian and bicycle as a cyclist, so of course they're more likely to die from driving than walking or bicycling.

The disconcerting thing, though, is that I tend to walk far more than the average person walks(I think) which seems like the chance of me dying from walking might actually be comparable with the average car driver from driving(But it's inconclusive from that graph alone). But, then again, I believe I've developed "safe habits" in regards to walking so I'm probably safer with walking than the average person.

 

[Miles]

Firearm assault - 1 in 314

 

[swbluto]

Anbody up for some bullet pi? :lol: While a fluffier round dessert is typically designed for birthdays, this is a once of lifetime opportunity for your deathday.

 

[Instant Karma]

I'm pretty sure that they derived that diagram from the perspective of the "average person". The average person drives far more than they walk as a pedestrian and bicycle as a cyclist, so of course they're more likely to die from driving than walking or bicycling.

The disconcerting thing, though, is that I tend to walk far more than the average person walks(I think) which seems like the chance of me dying from walking might actually be comparable with the average car driver from driving(But it's inconclusive from that graph alone). But, then again, I believe I've developed "safe habits" in regards to walking so I'm probably safer with walking than the average person.

I'm curious as to what the safe walking rules are, besides the obvious like facing the traffic when walking and wearing bright and reflective clothing when dark. Most pedestrian fatalities are at intersections of busy streets when a car disregards the light, just like what a lot of motorcycle fatalities are caused by. There was a famous guy in the 19th century named Edward Westin who routinely walked 50 miles per day for days at a time for most of his life but he didn't have to contend with cars until he got really old, he lived to 90 years I believe.

 

[dogman dan]

Hoka Hey, it's a good day to die. It's the only religious belief that has ever helped me. Live every single day like it's your last, and don't waste it being moody over something. Enjoy the day anyway, no matter how much it may suck, since it may be your last one.

I sorta think that there is such a thing as your turn to die, so you could walk away from a plane crash, and then choke on a cherry pit later. This phlilosophy is not an excuse to do dangerous stuff in a stupid manner, but it helped me deal with the chances of death everyday on construction sites.

 

[swbluto]

I'm pretty sure that they derived that diagram from the perspective of the "average person". The average person drives far more than they walk as a pedestrian and bicycle as a cyclist, so of course they're more likely to die from driving than walking or bicycling.

The disconcerting thing, though, is that I tend to walk far more than the average person walks(I think) which seems like the chance of me dying from walking might actually be comparable with the average car driver from driving(But it's inconclusive from that graph alone). But, then again, I believe I've developed "safe habits" in regards to walking so I'm probably safer with walking than the average person.

I'm curious as to what the safe walking rules are, besides the obvious like facing the traffic when walking and wearing bright and reflective clothing when dark. Most pedestrian fatalities are at intersections of busy streets when a car disregards the light, just like what a lot of motorcycle fatalities are caused by. There was a famous guy in the 19th century named Edward Westin who routinely walked 50 miles per day for days at a time for most of his life but he didn't have to contend with cars until he got really old, he lived to 90 years I believe.

Well, I wouldn't call them rules but they are long term strategies I've implemented in a gesture to minimize my chance of dying.

I don't walk on the freeway. Cars within a certain distance(5 feet or so) I give an "escape stance" so that it'd be possible to jump out of the way. My back pack has reflective tape on it and I also carry a flashlight that I always use when crossing any intersections in dusk, dawn or night-time settings. I look both ways before crossing and I typically *avoid* intersections and crossing at proximity to outlets when possible, except on sufficiently busy roads or roads with a sufficient density of parked cars. The reason being that a pedestrian's ability to sense danger at an intersection is incredibly limited - if you're in a dangerous situation, you don't exactly have much time to react but at a distance, you'd see a car sufficiently far away to react accordingly. At intersections where there are unfilled lanes, I keep an eye on incoming cars to ensure that there's an intention that they're going to slow before the crosswalk, otherwise, I typically stop and wait for that a sense of intention. Any possible cars turning into me I also keep on eye on, even if that means a head turned 90 degrees. If it looks like the cars doesn't sense me, and this is usually detectable within a safe margin, I don't move *even* if I have the right of way. I wait until the next opportunity arises. Now, if this happened on a continuous basis, I'd also get in the habit of collecting license plate numbers but I haven't got that far yet.

I've found Seattle's suburbs to be the worst when it comes to pedestrian safety and viability, especially near the free-way. They basically have what appears to be an unregulated off-ramps(other than a possible "yield" sign judging from the driver's behaviors), generously wide roads and wide pedestrian crossings at unregulated on-ramps and off-ramps and a heavy amount of pedestrian-disregarding drivers (Since, it appears, the *vast* majority of suburbanites drive cars so pedestrians would always be the vilified minority). I was actually about to cross an off ramp and they have this "press the button" and the crossing-sign will light up indicating it's safe to walk across, haha, what a joke. As it lit, I counted... *swoosh*... *swoosh*...*swoosh*... *swoosh*...*swoosh*...*swoosh*...about 7 cars that passed before one actually slowed down to let me cross. Oh yeah, now that's what I call an effective crosswalk. I'd say the traffic engineers there have a morbid sense of humor.

Also, an escape plan is good... I try to imagine possible scenarios (I actually get quite a few from the online news and liveleak videos) and form an escape plan and rehearse that escape plan in my mind. That way an "escape" would be more immediately executable which would increase my chance of surviving a scenario if it unfolded.

 

[jag]

Further up in the page, though, motorcycling had a far higher chance of dying per 100 million hours of driving and it seems possible electric bikes can be more appropriately compared to them than bicycles.
Source http://www.bicyclinglife.com/SafetySkills/answer1.htm

An ebike is probably somewhere inbetween a regular bike and a motor bike. The most salient difference would be the kinetic energy. Travelling at 100km/h (65mph) on a motorbike gives the rider 16 times higher kinetic energy than 25km/h on a bike or ebike. Now if the ebike goes 50km/h (30mph) the difference is only 4 times. The slogan speed kills is valid for ebikes also.

 

[Anonymous]

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[jag]

Here's an article that compares the death rate between pedestrians and those in vehicles: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bottleneck/2008/07/pedestrian-deat.html
In summary, per 100 million miles, 1.42 pedestrians were killed while 1.3 motorists were killed.
Seems frightening doesn't it? Driving must surely be safer! Except, there's this mechanism that many don't seem to recognize called "induced demand".

Burt Rutan, the aerospace engineer and Spaceship One designer gave a talk in Edmonton the other day. Here are some more statistics:
Risk of death while:

• 
  1/5000 Travelling with early commercial airlines in the 1930's.
  1/1000 000 Travelling with today's commercial airlines.
  1/74 Participating in a NASA space mission
  1/1000 Driving your kid around until age 16.