Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

cricketo said:
Hillhater said:
Im saying , ..there is no scientific proof that CO2 is the CAUSE of global temperature changes.

Perhaps it is engineering you're struggling with. You have to break the problem apart. First, you need to answer
the question whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas or not. You're refusing to do that. As long as you don't provide a definitive
answer to such question, there is no point in moving on to the next question.
Sorry, you cannot drag me into your rabbit hole of confusion.
If you go that way , you would have to start by defining what you believe "greenhouse gas" to be.
But it is not necessary since i have said clearly ..."there is no scientific proof that CO2 is the CAUSE of global temperature changes."
Until you can produce that proof, there is no point in discussing the possible mechanism.
 
Punx0r said:
Hillhater said:
....Infact there is more evidence to suggest the changes in CO2 levels are the RESULT of global temperature change.

I've not seen any such theory that hasn't already been widely discredited, so if you have something please post link.
Really ?
Co2 "Lag" relative to temperature change . has been accepted by most following detailed review of historical records (ice cores etc)
 
Hillhater said:
Sorry bill, but that is not scientific proof of a "global" effect.
billvon said:
..It is scientific proof that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
Ahh ! The George Costanza method !
..its not a lie if you believe it when you say it..
Simply repeating what you believe wont change the facts.
 
Hillhater said:
If you go that way , you would have to start by defining what you believe "greenhouse gas" to be.

Even though I already referred to that through the effects, here is the definition from the Book of Wisdom for you :

A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs and emits radiant energy within the thermal infrared range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

Hillhater said:
But it is not necessary since i have said clearly ..."there is no scientific proof that CO2 is the CAUSE of global temperature changes."

It is absolutely necessary to determine the mechanisms and properties of the relevant agents in order to determine causes and effects of something (or lack of thereof). For example, if we knew for a fact (from physics) that CO2 has no ability to interact with radiation in the infrared spectrum, we could definitively say CO2 concentrations carry no direct impact on global temperatures.

Otherwise, what you're doing is called "deflection" in a civil society, I call it "sophisticated trolling."
 
Again, ....if you believe you have a different explanation , (CO2), to the established historic ones ,(for variations in global temperature), the onus is on you to proove conclusively that different theory.
If you cannot show proof of the outcome you claim , then there is no reason to explore the claimed processes that you suggest would have produced that result

?., if we knew for a fact (from physics) that CO2 has no ability to interact with radiation in the infrared spectrum, we could definitively say CO2 concentrations carry no direct impact on global temperatures.
Well actually, No, "scientificly" you could not conclude that ....you would be making another assumption.
All you could say is that CO2 has no ability to interact with IR radiation. !
It would be a huge and immensly unscientific step to imply what that might mean on a global scale.
In the same way that even if you show that CO2 does interact with IR radiation, to extrapolate that to its potential impact on global atmospheric conditions, would be a huge and unscientific conclusion.
 
Hillhater said:
Again, ....if you believe you have a different explanation to the established historic ones ,(for variations in global temperature), the onus is on you to proove conclusively that different theory.
If you cannot show proof of the outcome you claim , then there is no reason to explore the claimed processes that you suggest would have produced that result

And again, there is no point in arguing the big picture if you have no base line of any kind. I am an engineer, and I apply science every day. It's not enough to use it in a sentence, the claim needs to reflect the method. You have no method.

Here is something you can dig into over coffee :

On Friday, as many Americans were clamoring for discounts at big box stores, the federal government released an alarming report on the impacts of human-caused climate change, some of which are predictive, others described are already here.

The report warns that climate-fueled disasters -- like the recent California wildfires and the powerful hurricanes that ripped parts of Florida and the East Coast earlier this year -- will be more intense and more frequent unless "substantial and sustained" reductions to greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly put in place.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
 
Hillhater said:
Well actually, No, "scientificly" you could not conclude that ....you would be making another assumption.
All you could say is that CO2 has no ability to interact with IR radiation. !
It would be a huge and immensly unscientific step to imply what that might mean on a global scale.

Brilliant. We should also not say that most elements of the periodic table have no impact on global temperatures, instead we need to come up with a reproducible way to prove that. Because you know, what if it is astatine to blame for all the stuff ?
 
Getting back to the original subject -

Nuclear, while it has its problems, is one of the carbon-free sources of energy that may help with reducing our carbon production. Unfortunately the very problems being caused by that carbon may make it more difficult to site and operate nuclear reactors. Many reactors need cool water to carry away the waste heat, and they need a certain starting temperature (i.e. the water has to be cool enough when it enters) and cannot exceed a maximum exhaust temperature (i.e. they can't return water to a river at fish-killing temperatures.) Other reactors use cooling towers, and this requires evaporating water to provide cooling. And nuclear power uses a lot more water than natural gas plants, due to its single-cycle design. As droughts intensify due to a warmer climate, there will be less water for such plants to use.

The one place where nuclear power plants won't see as much change is on the coast, since the amount of water they can pull from the sea is effectively unlimited, and sea temperatures will change far more slowly than land temperatures. However, fears of another Fukushima may limit the sites where coastal reactors can be permitted.

These problems have already resulted in nuclear power plants having to shut down to avoid exceeding thermal limits. From a Quartz article from Aug 8:
===========================
Europe’s heatwave—which led to wildfires in Greece and Sweden, droughts in central and northern parts, and made the normally green UK look brown from space—is forcing nuclear plants to shut down or curtail the amount of power they produce. French utility EDF shut four reactors at three power plants on Saturday, Swedish utility Vattenfall shut one of two reactors at a power plant earlier last week, and nuclear plants in Finland, Germany, and Switzerland have cut back the amount of power they produce.
===========================

From Huffpo earlier today:
===========================
. .The second installment of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, a congressionally mandated update on the causes and effects of anthropogenic warming from 13 federal agencies, devoted its entire third chapter to water contamination and depletion. Aging, deteriorating infrastructure means “water systems face considerable risk even without anticipated future climate changes,” the report states. But warming-linked droughts and drastic changes in seasonal precipitation “will add to the stress on water supplies and adversely impact water supply.”

Nearly every sector of the economy is susceptible to water system changes. And utilities are particularly at risk. In the fourth chapter, the report’s roughly 300 authors conclude, “Most U.S. power plants … rely on a steady supply of water for cooling, and operations are expected to be affected by changes in water availability and temperature increases.”

For nuclear plants, that warning is particularly grave. Reactors require 720 gallons of water per megawatt-hour of electricity they produce, according to data from the National Energy Technology Laboratory in West Virginia cited in 2012 by the magazine New Scientist. That compares with the roughly 500 gallons coal requires and 190 gallons natural gas needs to produce the same amount of electricity. Solar plants, by contrast, use approximately 20 gallons per megawatt-hour, mostly for cleaning equipment, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group.

Nuclear plants are already vulnerable to drought. Federal regulations require plants to shut down if water in the river or lake that feeds its cooling drops below a certain level. By the end of the 2012 North American heat wave, nuclear generation fell to its lowest point in a decade, with plants operating at only 93 percent of capacity.

The availability of water is one problem, particularly for the majority of U.S. nuclear plants located far from the coasts and dependent on freshwater. Another is the temperature of the water that’s available.

Nearly half the nuclear plants in the U.S. use once-through cooling systems, meaning they draw water from a local source, cool their reactors, then discharge the warmed water into another part of the river, lake, aquifer or ocean. Environmental regulations bar plants from releasing used water back into nature above certain temperatures. In recent years, regulators in states like New York and California rejected plant operators’ requests to pull more water from local rivers, essentially mandating the installation of costly closed-loop systems that cool and reuse cooling water.

In 2012, Connecticut’s lone nuclear power plant shut down one of its two units because the seawater used to cool the plant was too warm. The heat wave that struck Europe this summer forced utilities to scale back electricity production at nuclear plants in Finland, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland. In France the utility EDF shut down four reactors in one day.
====================
 
cricketo said:
Brilliant. We should also not say that most elements of the periodic table have no impact on global temperatures, instead we need to come up with a reproducible way to prove that. Because you know, what if it is astatine to blame for all the stuff ?
No, if you believe that CO2 is THE cause, ..all you have to do is to prove it conclusively.
(But Of course, part of that process of proof, may be that you have to show that other elements and gas molecules do not have that same potential ! :roll: )

PS, are you not even a little suspicious regarding the timing and comments regarding CA fires etc, of that report.?
And there is plenty of evidence as to the primary cause of wildfires....
.....and the frequency/ severity of storms
As someone may well say.....FAKE NEWS...Alarm tactics?
 
Hillhater said:
As someone may well say.....FAKE NEWS...Alarm tactics?

Well, problem is the people who normally scream "Fake News" run the administration that released the report :) Unless of course the intention is to reveal some deep conspiracy there as step #2 :D
 
billvon said:
Getting back to the original subject -

Nuclear, while it has its problems, is one of the carbon-free sources of energy that may help with reducing our carbon production. Unfortunately the very problems being caused by that carbon may make it more difficult to site and operate nuclear reactors. Many reactors need cool water to carry away the waste heat, and they need a certain starting temperature (i.e. the water has to be cool enough when it enters) and cannot exceed a maximum exhaust temperature (i.e. they can't return water to a river at fish-killing temperatures.) Other reactors use cooling towers, and this requires evaporating water to provide cooling. And nuclear power uses a lot more water than natural gas plants, due to its single-cycle design. As droughts intensify due to a warmer climate, there will be less water for such plants to use.
I like nuclear and all, but all the trolling from a certain fact resistant member, revolves around heating.
Running a nuclear plant discharges a lot of waste-heat in the planet-system. The carnot-cycle equations are why a plant needs cold inlet-cooling to get a high delta-T. If not even larger percentage becomes heat instead of electricity. This is the thermal effeciency.
Nuclear runs, what 65% thermal effeciency?

Now, the question - how much heat (in MWh), does one extra tonnes of CO2 retain in the atmosphere, over a year - compared to the discharged heat from Nuclear?
 
AFAIK, the extra heat produced by Mans activities (including by mere existence through body heat) is measurable but pretty small and ought to be lost quite quickly to space, whereas extra CO2 will have a persistent heating effect due to the greenhouse effect and how long it remains in the atmosphere.

Hillhater said:
Again, ....if you believe you have a different explanation , (CO2), to the established historic ones ,(for variations in global temperature), the onus is on you to proove conclusively that different theory.

Punx0r said:
Scientists have spent many years and much resource diligently bottoming-out all alternative explanations and nothing fits, except the great big elephant standing in the corner of the room.

You forget that the past warming and cooling periods many deniers like to point at, have been explained by the same mechanisms that have been shown not to be cause the current warming. It's physics.

Please stop being anti-science. The science of global warming is settled, there is no debate. You need to realise it's a scientific consensus, comprising the vast majority of credible scientists on one side, and just a few cranks and shills on the other. You might want to seriously consider what company you're choosing to align yourself with.


Edit: Warming effect of Man's waste heat is 1% of that from our CO2 emissions: https://www.skepticalscience.com/waste-heat-global-warming.htm
 
Punx0r said:
Please stop being anti-science. The science of global warming is settled, there is no debate. You need to realise it's a scientific consensus,
You must live under a rock if you believe there is no debate.
What do you think this little discussusion is, ? Just a dream ?
Obviously you never read or listen to any news or literature other than the pro warmist propoganda
There is no consensus, just a misguided bunch of Government funded academics desperate to prolong their funding for their research.and jobs by producing favourable "papers"
There has never been any scientific proof of the AGW theory,...nor can there ever be.
 
Hanssing said:
I like nuclear and all, but all the trolling from a certain fact resistant member, revolves around heating.
Running a nuclear plant discharges a lot of waste-heat in the planet-system. The carnot-cycle equations are why a plant needs cold inlet-cooling to get a high delta-T. If not even larger percentage becomes heat instead of electricity. This is the thermal effeciency.
Nuclear runs, what 65% thermal effeciency?
Far less than that - around 30%. The other 70% is rejected as waste heat.

It's a valid question. Unfortunately the reason that the equation is still in favor of nuclear power (from a warming perspective) is that the warming potential from the CO2 emitted by, say, a coal power plant far outweighs the direct heating from a nuclear power plant - even though the heating due to nuclear power is significant.

In 2014 the IPCC did a study on the lifecycle warming potentials for nuclear vs coal, measured in grams of CO2 equivalent per kWh. (In other words, both actual heating due to CO2 and the equivalent heating due to waste heat, construction costs, albedo changes etc.) Coal's potential was 820; natural gas was 490 since it emits far less carbon. Nuclear was 12.
 
Hillhater said:
There has never been any scientific proof of the AGW theory,...nor can there ever be.
It's good to get such a simple and clear statement from you - that you will always reject the science when it doesn't say what you want it to. At least now we know who we are dealing with.
 
billvon said:
Hillhater said:
There has never been any scientific proof of the AGW theory,...nor can there ever be.
It's good to get such a simple and clear statement from you - that you will always reject the science when it doesn't say what you want it to. At least now we know who we are dealing with.

+1

He finally admits talking to him is as productive a talking to a brick wall.
 
billvon said:
Hillhater said:
There has never been any scientific proof of the AGW theory,...nor can there ever be.
It's good to get such a simple and clear statement from you - that you will always reject the science when it doesn't say what you want it to.
?? You really do have a comprehension problem .
The "Science" says exactly the same as i stated......that until prooven .. (not just repeated),..AGW is only a theory.
 
Hillhater said:
PS, are you not even a little suspicious regarding the timing and comments regarding CA fires etc, of that report.?
And there is plenty of evidence as to the primary cause of wildfires....
.....and the frequency/ severity of storms
As someone may well say.....FAKE NEWS...Alarm tactics?

That report was mandated by law. This was the fourth such climate assessment. Its completion and release has been scheduled for months. Draft version were made available for review earlier this year. I personally know several of the authors and reviewers. I guarantee you they are competent people. Many of them worked on the report for free, in addition to their regular jobs as scientists, economists, policy makers, and regulators, and have nothing to gain from the conclusions other than their concern for the future of our planet.
 
jimw1960 said:
Hillhater said:
PS, are you not even a little suspicious regarding the timing and comments regarding CA fires etc, of that report.?
And there is plenty of evidence as to the primary cause of wildfires....
.....and the frequency/ severity of storms
As someone may well say.....FAKE NEWS...Alarm tactics?

That report was mandated by law. This was the fourth such climate assessment. Its completion and release has been scheduled for months. Draft version were made available for review earlier this year. I personally know several of the authors and reviewers. I guarantee you they are competent people. Many of them worked on the report for free, in addition to their regular jobs as scientists, economists, policy makers, and regulators, and have nothing to gain from the conclusions other than their concern for the future of our planet.

Its a shame they were not a little less biased in their assesments !

An interesting document.. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_Public_Comments_Author_Responses_with_Names.pdf
Contains reviewers comments such as this..
National Hurricane Center going back to the 1800‰Ûas data clearly indicate a drop in the decadal rate of US landfalling hurricanes since the 1960s. The current decade is on the low end of hurricane frequency even with last summer‰Ûas busy season. Yet you don‰Ûat mention this, instead you spin the topic to make it sound like the trends are all towards more cyclone activity. This paragraph is one-sided and misleading.
With the response from the report authors being ...
" data taken from Vol 1 ..."
Which seems to be the stock reply to many of the questions ?
Such as to this comment also..
The report should remove the unsupported major claim in that "... emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming..." The claim (that CO2 causes global warming) is unsupported by any valid method that has been properly published and peer reviewed. If report authors believe that there is a valid method published anywhere to support this claim, then please put the citation/reference number for that method at end of the key sentence, so the supporting logic/method can be easily and unambiguously located, andproperlychecked. Ifnoproperreferencecanbelocated,thentheclaim(thatCO2causesglobalwarming) should be removed from the Executive Summary and throughout the report text. The report's key claim -- that CO2 increase causes global warming -- is so important that it should be covered by its own chapter in the report, which should clearly state the method used to support the claim. What method was used (to show that CO2 causes global warming), who did the research, where is this documented (clear citation), who did the review? Does this alleged supporting document actually state the conclusion and describe the method and analysis used toreachtheconclusionaboutCO2? Whatmethodwasused?Tomyknowledge,noone(notIPCC,EPA,NSF, NOAA, NAS, etc) has ever cited the proper reference for this key claim because the proper scientific research has never been done -- no funding agency ever sought to fund research using the scientific method to test (ie., attempt to falsify) the hypothesis that CO2 causes warming.... because that would be political heresy. So, the correct method for testing the hypothesis has been ignored,
With a similar "refer to Vol 1 ". ....stock reply.
That is pretty unprofessional reporting methodology, to simply include data from other sources without verification.
 
cricketo said:
He finally admits talking to him is as productive a talking to a brick wall.
Yep. Which explains his constant personal attacks - it's really all he has.

Meanwhile, to get back on topic - a big coal plant in the UK is being converted into high efficiency housing powered primarily by solar+storage.
=================================
This coal plant closed–now it’s being converted to a solar-powered neighborhood

BY ADELE PETERS
Fast Company
11/29/2018

A little more than two years ago, as the market for coal kept collapsing, a 1-gigawatt coal plant in the U.K. town of Rugeley was one of many that closed around the world. Now, the utility company that owns the site plans to transform it into something quite different: sustainably powered housing.

“Rapid change within the energy industry has meant a transition to a lower carbon, flexible, and more decentralized model for power generation,” says Niel Scott, a spokesman for Engie, the France-based utility that owns the coal plant. (The company, formerly called Gaz de France Suez, changed its name in 2015 to reflect its own move away from fossil fuels.) “We were inspired by the possibility to ourselves lead the transformation of a site associated with a more carbon-intensive era of energy generation into a new chapter of use as one of the most efficient, low-carbon redevelopment projects in the U.K.”

The mixed-use development, on 139 acres, still needs to go through a community planning process in 2019. But it may include more than 2,000 new homes running on renewable electricity, at least half of which can be generated with on-site solar panels and stored in batteries. Heat will come from geothermal heat pumps. An efficient design will make it possible for the homes to use only about a third as much energy as a typical new house. At least 30% of the homes will be affordable. The development will also include commercial buildings.
===============================
 
The line about geothermal heating is intriguing as the UK is inactive volcanically. I can't find any details on Google for any geothermal schemes so it will be interesting to see what comes of it. That's assuming the journalist didn't mean ground source heat pumps?

The UK push on renewable energy has been lukewarm at best, but a rapid phasing out of coal has lowered CO2 emissions from all fossil fuel usage by 38% compared to 1990 and are, in fact the lowest they've been since 1890!

Coal use itself is down 96% compared to its peak in 1956 and 78% below the amount used in 1858 when records begin. Coal use was pretty steady from 2000 till 2012-14 and has fallen precipitously since then. Coal truly is dying out.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-carbon-emissions-in-2017-fell-to-levels-last-seen-in-1890

Hillhater said:
With a similar "refer to Vol 1 ". ....stock reply.

Presumably the requested information is contained therein. Has anyone actually checked Volume 1?
 
Punx0r said:
The line about geothermal heating is intriguing as the UK is inactive volcanically. I can't find any details on Google for any geothermal schemes so it will be interesting to see what comes of it. That's assuming the journalist didn't mean ground source heat pumps?
Yeah, he said geothermal heat pumps. (Which is technically accurate but misleading due to conflation with "geothermal power.")
 
Finally. Some of the real situation is starting to enter the main stream green media. Transitioning all cars to electric will only save 11% of oil. Even if solar and wind grow by 9X in 2035, fossil fuels will still be 77% of total primary energy considering world growth. It is not just a matter of choice of where we get our energy. We are stuck using all of the above. The fastest possible pace of solar and wind build out can't replace what we need to maintain the economy. And fossil fuel energy will eventually start to slip away. Leaving us short and broke. Anyone alive in 20 years needs to start getting ready now.
.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120235_latest-climate-study-says-its-already-too-late
.
 
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