Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[JackFlorey]

There are tons of propaganda on how cheap renewable energy is but the RE lovers don't want to look at the real-world data or even use basic horse sense.

Yep. And there's tons of propaganda on "clean coal" and the like paid for by the people whose livelihoods depend on people using coal. But right wingers just lap that sh!t up.

Meanwhile solar is growing at 15 gigawatts a year in the US alone. Even Trump's best efforts to kill the solar industry have managed to reduce that to "only" 10 gigawatts a year. Once he's gone expect it to hit 20GW/year quickly.

 

[Hillhater]

......l. (We don't burn oil for power here in the continental US.)

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=6

.......Meanwhile solar is growing at 15 gigawatts a year in the US alone.

“Nameplate” values..
Output power equivalence = 2 GW of intermittent ,power...... that requires fossil fuel back up !

 

[JackFlorey]

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=6

You didn't read the post, did you. As usual.

 

[TheBeastie]

Nate Hagens: "We need to get working on an ad hoc "break glass in case of emergency" response to the impending financial collapses that will be coming due to the pre-existing fragile state of the world economy and the new extreme pressures of the Corona virus."
https://youtu.be/DBQZhEy9CoE

I think Nate Hagens and this guy in this YouTube video have a lot in common, this guy has been in the oil industry for 20+ years and has a lot to say about it.
Has a lot of philosophy points of view on how energy and money are kind of the same thing. This is a theory I have also been thinking about, money is kind of a "credit in energy" or "energy credit". Gold is one of the best stores of "credit in energy" because it takes a lot of energy to create one ounce of gold.
This whole interview is riddled with interesting bits of perspective and what has happened in history with energy and value.

This interview starts off looking like a boring financial video but turns out to be incredible interesting and insightful in my opinion.
https://youtu.be/fVKqWwae4jc
[youtube]fVKqWwae4jc[/youtube]

This Hydrogen fuel cell ship that stores its energy via sea water converted to hydrogen from the solar panels, this one apparently sailing the around the world for many years now to show off how reliable its technology is.
I believe the reason why there aren't any lithion-ion+solar panel only type ships is because it's just too many batteries/weight, it's a bit like flying via lithion-ion only, just too heavy to really last many cycles before your battery is ruined.
[youtube]2xdXqNGqBag[/youtube]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*ADD*
Here is the Energy Observer dedicated YouTube channel, cos this boat is covered in solar panels, lithium-ion batteries along with Hydrogen and advanced sail wings, this boat should be popular for any renewables lover.
https://www.youtube.com/c/ENERGYOBSERVER/videos
[youtube]yWWYiDTVbRY[/youtube]

The video above has some interesting comparisons, it compares its lithion-ion battery energy/weight vs its hydrogen fuel-cell energy/weight total etc. https://youtu.be/yWWYiDTVbRY?t=233
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*ADD* I don't know if anyone actually reads my *ADD* posts but doesn't seem to really matter either way...

Quite a long chunky interesting article here...
The story of cheaper batteries, from smartphones to Teslas
The economics of cheaper batteries—and why they're good news for the planet.
https://arstechnica.com/features/2020/05/the-story-of-cheaper-batteries-from-smartphones-to-teslas/

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Continuing on the very interesting recent events from Nikola Motor hydrogen fuel-cell electric trucks, https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=89002&start=5925#p1571243
CEO Trevor Milton of Nikola Motor interviews with TeslaCharts some very interesting stuff about the company/technology of Hydrogen fuel cells in trucking and why it makes sense.
About 3 years ago when I first saw a prototype of the Nikola Motor electric semi truck it was the same time Elon Musk was annoucing his electric semi truck I thought it's probably too late fro Nikola, but of course we now know Tesla annoucement/release dates are years off what happens in reality, and fact is the Nikola trucks are now in basic level of production for real world usage/trial.
https://feeds.buzzsprout.com/758369/4605602-episode-35-trevor-milton
https://teslacharts.net/

 

[Hillhater]

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=6

You didn't read the post, did you. As usual.

I read exactly what you posted, Jack

(We don't burn oil for power here in the continental US.)

Maybe you didnt mean what you posted ?

 

[sendler2112]

(We don't burn oil for power here in the continental US.)

Maybe you didnt mean what you posted ?

A few tenths of a percent of oil powered electricity in the USA is next to nothing. Throw out Hawaii and Puerto Rico and it will be much less. But all rich nations rely on a great deal of oil for other forms of energy which are very difficult to transition to electricity due to 100's $trillions of built out infrastructure and equipment and the density and storage advantages of oil.
.

.

 

[JackFlorey]

I read exactly what you posted, Jack

You missed the 'continental' part. The only state that uses any appreciable oil for power generation is Hawaii.

 

[Hillhater]

The point was not about “quantity”,..
Your statement was an “absolute”...
It just appears to be incorrect.!
Im sure many will have changed in the past few years,...
.... but i am equally sure some will still be operating..

 

[Hillhater]

We see these cost charts and forecasts of the <$100/kWh lithium battery, all too frequently repeated in the media.
But what is missing is any evidence of these costs in real life.?
Can anyone show me where to buy new brand name Lithium battery,s for $100-150 /kWh ?
Its difficult to get hard data for commercial battery costs, but one of the more recent is the costing for the additional 64.5 MWh upgrade to the Hornsdale Power Reserve facility in S Australia, which was stated in official reports at Au$91 million (US$64 m ).....so effectively us$1000 /kWh
Obviously that cost would include all associated controls, shipping, installation ,etc, ..but i still do not believe the “batteries” thenselves were only 10-20% of the total cost !
And remember, these were PowerPack systems from Tesla who profess to be one of the lowest cost battery manufacturers

 

[Ianhill]

63× molicel p42a 1kwh £211.05 bare no interconnects no bms no cell containment system I'd say your looking at at least double that in materials then assembly costs and your balls deep in a biggy with conversion factors and scale of quantity the price sounds about right for some regen capability on the grid.

Is it money well spent I'd say wtf we doing putting short life span systems into the grid tesla has just cyber trucked a nation elon is an absolute filthy rich influencer that can do as he likes with Johnny depps missus Australia and space the guys just a super villain, looked like Joe Rogan gave his spliff to an alien he didn't know wtf to do with it thats why he needs space x to get back home guys as wierd as ET and I'll put money on it he never made her squirt.

 

[Hillhater]

China and renewable energy generation.
There is no doubt China has huge RE power generation capacity, especially hydro (300+ GW), with multiple large dam systems (the 3 Gorges dam alone has more generation capacity than Australias total power generation from all sources !) . Wind and Solar also together total 300+ GW in nameplate capacity.
Much is made by RE enthusiasts about the scale of Chinas investment and construction of these RE sources, but little is mentioned about the REAL situation of Chinas power supply.
Despite the Scale annd resources deployed in Hydro, Wind, and Solar, .80+% of china’s electricity is actually generated by Coal fired Thermal power plants which have a capacity of over 1100 GW and of course a high CF for continuous supply.
This is the result of china quietly adding to its Coal fired fleet at the rate of one new full size (1-2 GW) Coal generation plant , approx EVERY 10 DAYS FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS.. or longer !
.. and still building at that rate.

 

[jonescg]

AEMO sees renewables as both inevitable and the right thing to do. Even a do-nothing strategy will still see at least 50% of all generation come from wind, solar and storage. Do a little bit more and you can easily get to 75% or more.

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2020/final-2020-integrated-system-plan.pdf?la=en

 

[Dauntless]

So I'm getting they would take the hydrocarbons out of the air and make a hydrocarbon fuel and put them right back. Maybe better than getting new hydrocarbon fuel, but I don't think this is a real answer.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/could-air-conditioning-fix-climate-change

 

[JackFlorey]

AEMO sees renewables as both inevitable and the right thing to do. Even a do-nothing strategy will still see at least 50% of all generation come from wind, solar and storage.

Yep. Simple economics; it's the cheapest by a long shot, and that goes a long way towards incentivizing people to deal with the problems of intermittency.

"Hey - you can have coal for $65 a megawatt hour or solar-PV for $29 a megawatt-hour. Your choice. But you have to do some more work with solar." People are going to hear that and think "for less than half the cost, I can do some work - especially if my competitors are unwilling."

 

[Hillhater]

AEMO sees renewables as both inevitable and the right thing to do. Even a do-nothing strategy will still see at least 50% of all generation come from wind, solar and storage.

Yep. Simple economics; it's the cheapest by a long shot, and that goes a long way towards incentivizing people to deal with the problems of intermittency.

Yea,..sure.
So explain why every country that has implimented significant amounts of Wind, solar, and storage , have seen their REAL POWER PRICE ..INCREASE ?

 

[Cephalotus]

China and renewable energy generation.
There is no doubt China has huge RE power generation capacity, especially hydro (300+ GW), with multiple large dam systems (the 3 Gorges dam alone has more generation capacity than Australias total power generation from all sources !) . Wind and Solar also together total 300+ GW in nameplate capacity.
Much is made by RE enthusiasts about the scale of Chinas investment and construction of these RE sources, but little is mentioned about the REAL situation of Chinas power supply.
Despite the Scale annd resources deployed in Hydro, Wind, and Solar, .80+% of china’s electricity is actually generated by Coal fired Thermal power plants which have a capacity of over 1100 GW and of course a high CF for continuous supply.
This is the result of china quietly adding to its Coal fired fleet at the rate of one new full size (1-2 GW) Coal generation plant , approx EVERY 10 DAYS FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS.. or longer !
.. and still building at that rate.

Capacity factor of most Chinese coal pwoer plants is below 50%:

http://www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/tongjxinxi/niandushuju/2020-01-21/197077.html

So do they build many new ones?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-china-build-hundreds-of-new-coal-plants-in-the-2020s

In EU coal (hard and lignite) now produces less electricity than solar and wind:

https://ember-climate.org/project/renewables-beat-fossil-fuels/

 

[jonescg]

Yea,..sure.
So explain why every country that has implimented significant amounts of Wind, solar, and storage , have seen their REAL POWER PRICE ..INCREASE ?

Because about 10 years ago, it was kind of expensive. But now that the market for RE is established, it's actually gotten very cheap. That, and energy companies and distribution networks are creaming.

 

[Hillhater]

Capacity factor of most Chinese coal pwoer plants is below 50%:

And the CF of their Wind generators is below 23%
solar below 12%
So what is your point ?.... they have spare capacity ?....do you understand why ?
Coal CF is dictated by how much you bother to use it..
Solar and wind CF is dictated by the weather and is as good as it ever going to be !

....So do they build many new ones?...

Yes,...many more..

The industry group for China’s power sector giants, China Electricity Council, has argued that coal-power capacity “will” reach 1,300GW by 2030, up from 1,050GW today. This target is based on its projections for annual electricity demand and the need for capacity to meet peak loads.
A cap of 1,300GW in 2030 would imply the addition of well over 300GW of new coal-fired capacity this decade, after accounting for the retirement of older plants.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-china-build-hundreds-of-new-coal-plants-in-the-2020s

 

[Hillhater]

Yea,..sure.
So explain why every country that has implimented significant amounts of Wind, solar, and storage , have seen their REAL POWER PRICE ..INCREASE ?

Because about 10 years ago, it was kind of expensive. But now that the market for RE is established, it's actually gotten very cheap. That, and energy companies and distribution networks are creaming.

?? 10 years ago , power was cheaper ?
,..prices have been increasing since then,....even though PV panels are cheaper ?
So, obviously “GENERATION” cost is not the reason for consumer price increases.
....its all the ADDITIONAL COSTS that wind and Solar introduce to the system in order to be viable
(Including the oportuniyies for profiteering ! )

 

[Hillhater]

In EU coal (hard and lignite) now produces less electricity than solar and wind:
https://ember-climate.org/project/renewables-beat-fossil-fuels/

From your link...

Fossil fuels fell by 18%. Fossil was squeezed on two fronts: by rising renewable generation and a 7% fall in electricity demand due to COVID-19. Coal took the brunt, falling by 32%. Of that, hard coal generation fell 34% and lignite fell 29%. Even gas generation registered a fall of 6%,

So Coal and Gas were able to reduce generation to match reduced demand....
..whilst wind and solar..?...well they just kept on dribbling away when the wind blows and the sun shines..
I wonder what will happen when (if ?) demand jumps back up after Covid ?
PS..none of the enthusiastic report mentions those periods (many) when Wind and Solar can only produce <10%.. sometimes less than 2% of demand !
Those figures are Total Energy, over weeks and months, and take no account of LACK OF CONTINUITY, or AVAILABILITY due to the variable , intermittent, supply from Wind and Solar.
Example ..from your country..(a shining leader in RE conversion..)
There are periods this month when the combined 112 GW of installed Wind and Solar produced less than 6.0GW of the 50 GW demand...and even some periods where that figure was less than 3.0GW !
What do you think supplied the bulk of the power, to keep industry running and the light on, during those periods ?

 

[Cephalotus]

So what is your point ?....

Reply to this:

....80+% of china’s electricity is actually generated by Coal fired Thermal power plants which have a capacity of over 1100 GW and of course a high CF for continuous supply...

No, they do not produce continous supply at lower than 50% CF.

 

[Cephalotus]

...
Example ..from your country..(a shining leader in RE conversion..)
There are periods this month when the combined 112 GW of installed Wind and Solar produced less than 6.0GW of the 50 GW demand...and even some periods where that figure was less than 3.0GW !
What do you think supplied the bulk of the power, to keep industry running and the light on, during those periods ?

Sure. What's the problem?

The industry in Germany is kept running by 50% of RE. The other is 50% of nuclear and fossil fuels.

In 10-20 years it will be 80% RE, 0% nuclear and 20% fossil, mostly natural gas

In 30 years it will be 85% RE and 15% gas from "CO2 neutral" sources.

That's the plan and so far it works quite well.

 

[Hillhater]

So what is your point ?....

Reply to this:

....80+% of china’s electricity is actually generated by Coal fired Thermal power plants which have a capacity of over 1100 GW and of course a high CF for continuous supply...

No, they do not produce continous supply at lower than 50% CF.

I will repeat, since you either ignored or did not understand the answer...

.... they have spare capacity ?....do you understand why ?
Coal CF is dictated by how much you bother to use it..
Solar and wind CF is dictated by the weather and is as good as it ever going to be !

And ..do you understand why the CF of their coal plants is less than you might expect. ???

 

[Hillhater]

The industry in Germany is kept running by 50% of RE. The other is 50% of nuclear and fossil fuels.

NO ..it is not.
Industry cannot be kept running when at times the available RE supply is less than 5% of the demand.

 

[JackFlorey]

I cannot imagine how industry cannot be kept running when at times the available RE supply is less than 5% of the demand.

I fixed it for you so it's a lot more accurate.

I agree, you cannot imagine it. People could not imagine computers, 747's, reusable boosters and solar power at one point. Fortunately that did not limit us.