Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[billvon]

If you try to do this with solar PV the cars will have to charge during the solar peak

Exactly.

and you will need 75 more Solar Star farms and an increase in the wires to carry 43% more peak electricity since the solar peak nearly coincides with the current big daytime peaks.

Yes, you will need a lot more solar (and wind, and hydro etc) generation. Most of that solar will NOT be large central facilities, but distributed generation. Here in San Diego there are already two dozen EV charging stations with solar carshades; the solar array provides enough solar to run the EV chargers. SolarEdge now sells a solar EV charger/inverter that allows charging with your home's solar output rather than grid power. Such systems will become more popular with time.

 

[sendler2112]

the solar array provides enough solar to run the EV chargers. SolarEdge now sells a solar EV charger/inverter that allows charging with your home's solar output rather than grid power. Such systems will become more popular with time.

Wow! Always the optimist. Canopy charge stations charging at what rate? I think you had better do some research on the output for those canopies to see how much they are still charging from the grid. And let us know when California gets done adding another 126,123 GWh/year to the rooftops. Actual output. Not name plate capacity.
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What is the ratio of good south facing roofs to cars anyway? And what do we do in the North East USA?

 

[billvon]

Wow! Always the optimist. Canopy charge stations charging at what rate?

The ones I've seen are 30 amp, so about 7.2kW.

I think you had better do some research on the output for those canopies to see how much they are still charging from the grid.

Sure. The ones by the zoo are 90kW of solar, five chargers per, so 36KW draw if everyone is plugged in. The one by the zoo has a battery (100kW) so when it's cloudy it draws from that. Even without that battery, it is net positive (i.e. power still delivered to the grid) during the day when all stations are full.

And let us know when California gets done adding another 126,123 GWh/year to the rooftops.

Parking lots, actually. And believe me, CA's got plenty of those.

What is the ratio of good south facing roofs to cars anyway? And what do we do in the North East USA?

Solar plus offshore wind plus hydro in the long term.

 

[sendler2112]

I do agree that converting the personal fleet to affordable EV's goes well with added intermittent electrical generation and is our best first move in most developed countries that have millions of cars. The build out of even level 1 capable NEMA 5-15 outlets for every car in a workplace parking lot is a big task and who will pay for the install and the electricity? I know my owner would never voluntarily participate in something like that. If it tries to run like a ChargePoint business model this requires metered access for each 1500 Watt plug. 100's of millions of them all across the USA. If your going with meters, you might as well put in 6kW level 2.

 

[billvon]

The build out of even level 1 capable NEMA 5-15 outlets for every car in a workplace parking lot is a big task and who will pay for the install and the electricity?

Who will pay for the install? The companies involved or the people using them. Given that an outlet costs about 99 cents, and all the hardware per spot (box, conduit etc) is about $50 per, it's something that an EV owner would likely be OK with paying.

Who will pay for the electricity? Well, if you have Level 2 chargers, the user - the same way it's done now. If it's level 1? You could do it for free (like we do) or charge users $10 a month or something.

I know my owner would never voluntarily participate in something like that.

Then the company next door will put them in, and your owner will lose a few hires to the company next door - and eventually he will put them in. Not because he cares one bit about EV's, but because he wants to put something in his promotional material to attract more new hires.

 

[Punx0r]

How do you eat a horse? One bite at a time.

Converting to use substantially more renewable energy is a big job, but the technology required isn't difficult and it's a gradual shift, not an over-night change. Electric infrastructure is not hard: there are already outlets, a meter and a billing system in place in nearly every building in the developed world. Gradually manufacturing a staggering amount of something is quite feasible: there are over a billion cars in the world.

 

[sendler2112]

Converting to use substantially more renewable energy is a big job.

This is more the mind set I am hoping for. There is too much complacency. Like everything is so easy we have it made. Just put up some solar panels. I think we need to focus to move much faster. I would much rather see Tesla build 20 more GigaFactories than put a man on Mars.
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And make wise decisions on the scale of replacing all fossil fuel before it gets scarce and we can no longer afford to to do the mining and building of gargantuan things to replace it. To see if we really think we can make enough to keep all of the plates of modern society spinning with no thermal option. Run the numbers.

 

[Punx0r]

Just put up some solar panels

According to BladeRunner that's just what we will have...

 

[sendler2112]

Just put up some solar panels

According to BladeRunner that's just what we will have...

Hopefully not the endless rain as also in the movie.

 

[billvon]

Hopefully not the endless rain as also in the movie.

And all the snow. In LA.

 

[Hillhater]

And we all know its not practical or economic to transmit power long distances across the country.

Quite wrong. That's like saying "we all know it's not practical or economic to build an ebike with more than a 300 watt motor, or more than 500 watt-hours of storage. It's just a FACT!"

i dont follow the Ebike analogy to interstate power distribution , but it is a fact that you lose approx 1% of power for every 100 miles of tranmission, even using HVAC .
its also a fact that on average 6-12% of all generated power is lost due to transmission and distribution, and the cost of transmission infrastructure is enormous.
That is why power generators are located as close to industrial and urban centers as possible,..and why you will never have the majority of Solar or wind farms located in the most sunny or windy states.
..Combined with several other political and financial reasons.. !

sendler2112 wrote:

... The build out of even level 1 capable NEMA 5-15 outlets for every car in a workplace parking lot is a big task and who will pay for the install and the electricity?

Who will pay for the install? The companies involved or the people using them. Given that an outlet costs about 99 cents, and all the hardware per spot (box, conduit etc) is about $50 per, it's something that an EV owner would likely be OK with paying.

i think you missed out the cost of panels and installation there ?...

 

[Hillhater]

WE ARE SAVED !!!
..or so our PM says..
Australian Federal government has announced a big about face on energy ( Electricity generation) policy.
Basically , they will abandon the CET ( Clean Energy Target), stop all subsidies and tax concessions to RE generators,.AND insist that energy retailers must guarantee continuity of supply including base load.(.for night times and bad weather), called the NEG ( National Energy Guarantee)
All to be overseen by the ESB.. ( Energy Security Board ) ..Dont you love all these TLA s ! :lol:
This they claim will reduce the cost of electricity bills to the average consumer by up to Au$115 pa..by 2030 ! :lol:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-17/coalition-signs-off-on-new-energy-plan-to-replace-cet-proposal/9057026
Sounds good, but....of course this is only a Fed Gov bill that will need approval of all states to proceed...which will need some good fortune to happen !
Obviously this is no more than a political gesture to win a few minds and gain a breathing space , in response to the National outcry over the huge rise in Electricity prices.
If its blocked by interstate politics ( as is likely) our slimy PM will simply say he tried, but the opposition prevented him reducing prices.
But, at least it might just raise the reality of our energy issues to a national discussion level ! :wink:

 

[Hillhater]

Only few German wind turbines profitable after end of 20-year support payments
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/renewables-surcharge-said-fall-slightly-cop23-coalition-boost/only-few-german-wind-turbines-profitable-after-end-20-year-support-payments

Operating wind turbines in Germany will only be profitable for a small fraction of the installations once their 20-year support period via the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) has ended, consultancy Energy Brainpool says in a white paper. The first turbines in Germany will lose eligibility for support from the renewables surcharge that customers pay with their power bill in 2021 and “at the current [wholesale power] price level, only a few installations can be operated at a profit” after that due to maintenance costs, the consultancy says.

 

[Chalo]

Until you guys have enough petroleum to cover your own needs, it isn't even a discussion. You'll simply have to change.

 

[sendler2112]

WE ARE SAVED !!!
..or so our PM says..
Australian Federal government has announced a big about face on energy ( Electricity generation) policy.
Basically , they will abandon the CET ( Clean Energy Target), stop all subsidies and tax concessions to RE generators,.AND insist that energy retailers must guarantee continuity of supply including base load.(.for night times and bad weather), called the NEG ( National Energy Guarantee)
:

This is similar to the decision the USA has just proposed. We still have a 30% Federal rebate for new solar and wind installations and many states give an additional 20% (which for a large part end up in rich board rooms of start up companies since most average people aren't capable of installs at a DIY level). But there is renewed legal language at the Federal level concerning baseload guarantees for grid scale installations. The established thermal producers are unfairly forced to throttle up and down off of standby while the renewables siphon the cream off the top of the profits. The only way the build out of intermittents is fair in a free market is if the same company owns them and a thermal (or storage) installation together in order to be responsible for all of the true costs of a solid baseload.
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A massive build out of wind in the central USA, which has world class wind times 1,000's of square miles, was stymied 5 years ago when the existing utillities insisted that the cost of improving the transmission lines be paid by the wind farm company. The utilities must become the wind/ solar farm owners and vice versa.
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But we must find a way to do it anyway. Many aspects of the transitions we must make at the world level will not add up on paper dollar bills. If there was a fair way to implement a carbon tax at the world level, right when it comes out of the ground, a clean transition could push forward. But we are all in competition with each other. Which is why the USA pulled out of the Paris Accord.

 

[billvon]

i dont follow the Ebike analogy to interstate power distribution , but it is a fact that you lose approx 1% of power for every 100 miles of tranmission, even using HVAC .

Which is why HVDC is the way to go.

its also a fact that on average 6-12% of all generated power is lost due to transmission and distribution, and the cost of transmission infrastructure is enormous.

Yep. So is the cost of coal (7500 lives a year, $5 billion in damage per year from SOx acid rain.) But we're OK with that, too.

That is why power generators are located as close to industrial and urban centers as possible,..and why you will never have the majority of Solar or wind farms located in the most sunny or windy states.

We already do.

 

[Jil]

For those who are interested, here is an excellent daily newsletter about solar PV :
https://www.photon.info/en/photon-newsletter-subscription

 

[Jil]

PS3 : about the rate of construction, don't worry if there is the demand (and the market will provide it) it will not be an issue. The China alone has built 34 GW of PV solar plants last year (it was 0.5 GW in 2010). And it's just the beginning.

For 2017, China has laready installed 42 GW of PV so far, and should break the 50 GW mark before the end of the year :
https://www.photon.info/en/news/china-way-add-50-gw-pv-capacity-2017-aecea?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PHOTON%20Newsletter%20-%20International%20edition%20from%20October%2018%2C%202017&newsletter=PHOTON%20Newsletter%20-%20International%20edition%20from%20October%2018%2C%202017

 

[sendler2112]

Is 42GW nameplate really 11GW average?

 

[Jil]

Is 42GW nameplate really 11GW average?

if you assume a yearly production of 1700 kWh/kWp for these 42 GW (meaning that they are located in areas with good insolation), you get a mean power over 24h of 19% of the nameplate capacity.
So this is more 8 GW for me. 11 GW would mean a very high insolation (but I think the insolation in arid northern China must be very high, perhaps above 1700 kWh/kWp yearly).

But if you take into consideration the availability, yes 11GW is realistic. For example it is 80% average for nuclear reactors in France (yes it's pretty low).
In such case you can say that these 42 GW of solar will generate the same quantity of electricity yearly than 10-11 GW of nuclear power (the availability of a solar plant is generally above 99%).

 

[sendler2112]

Still that is quite a bit of new solar. Southern California deserts do about 25%. NY is 13%.

 

[Hillhater]

PS3 : about the rate of construction, don't worry if there is the demand (and the market will provide it) it will not be an issue. The China alone has built 34 GW of PV solar plants last year (it was 0.5 GW in 2010). And it's just the beginning.

For 2017, China has laready installed 42 GW of PV so far, and should break the 50 GW mark before the end of the year :
https://www.photon.info/en/news/china-way-add-50-gw-pv-capacity-2017-aecea?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PHOTON%20Newsletter%20-%20International%20edition%20from%20October%2018%2C%202017&newsletter=PHOTON%20Newsletter%20-%20International%20edition%20from%20October%2018%2C%202017

But its a matter of scale, and rate of install compared to rate of demand increase.
That 42GW/8GWh (70TWh pa ) of solar represents approx 1.1% of China's consumption last year....
....whilst China's annual consumption increases at about 7% year on year.!
I believe that is an issue..... Big numbers are not necessarily giving a big result.

 

[sendler2112]

Learn how the whole world can be in debt $200 Trillion. To whom? To the future.
.
https://youtu.be/n-fyOgG2RGo
.

 

[TheBeastie]

PS3 : about the rate of construction, don't worry if there is the demand (and the market will provide it) it will not be an issue. The China alone has built 34 GW of PV solar plants last year (it was 0.5 GW in 2010). And it's just the beginning.

For 2017, China has laready installed 42 GW of PV so far, and should break the 50 GW mark before the end of the year :
https://www.photon.info/en/news/china-way-add-50-gw-pv-capacity-2017-aecea?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PHOTON%20Newsletter%20-%20International%20edition%20from%20October%2018%2C%202017&newsletter=PHOTON%20Newsletter%20-%20International%20edition%20from%20October%2018%2C%202017

But its a matter of scale, and rate of install compared to rate of demand increase.
That 42GW/8GWh (70TWh pa ) of solar represents approx 1.1% of China's consumption last year....
....whilst China's annual consumption increases at about 7% year on year.!
I believe that is an issue..... Big numbers are not necessarily giving a big result.

Yeah there are two parts of it and thats in comparison its always a tiny amount of energy capacity actually generated from solar when compared to the conventional energy generation and also if its not on an existing roof and is instead covering up natural land the science has ever increasing validation in the claim that its just overall destructive to the planet. I think in the long run the science consense will get to the point where if the solar panels aren't on the roof of an existing structure than it should be illegal.

New Study Finds Nature is Vital to Beating Climate Change

Nature could cost-effectively deliver over a third of greenhouse gas emissions reductions required to prevent dangerous levels of global warming. This is equivalent to a complete stop to the burning of oil worldwide.
https://www.nature.org/newsfeatures/pressreleases/new-study-finds-nature-is-vital-to-beating-climate-change.xml
Washington, D.C., and London | October 16, 2017
Better stewardship of the land could have a bigger role in fighting climate change than previously thought, according to the most comprehensive assessment to date of how greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced and stored in forests, farmland, grasslands and wetlands using natural climate solutions...

Almost all large solar farms in the USA's driest areas have been met with specific claims of criticism and serious environmental destruction from wildlife and vegetation conservationists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ8L9EAWF3E

[youtube]EJ8L9EAWF3E[/youtube]

 

[billvon]

But its a matter of scale, and rate of install compared to rate of demand increase.

Exactly.

That 42GW/8GWh (70TWh pa ) of solar represents approx 1.1% of China's consumption last year....

Yep. And if it grows at the same rate that we are growing solar here, within 12 years it will be almost 50%.