Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

[sendler2112]

Musk teared up when she told him electricity is so expensive there (Australia) that some people were forced to choose between paying for enough AC to survive, and paying for food. He really cares very deeply about the future of humanity and carries a heavy weight. He responded solemnly "We will try harder". No wonder he has been acting a bit crazy lately.
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https://youtu.be/w7BMaG3zyVo
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[Hillhater]

.......
It's all technically possible, the challenge is making it acceptable to a public that largely refuses to bear any increase in utility costs.

....Technically possible ? .....maybe.
...But is it economically viable ?

..excerpt from UK Times ..
Jamie Kelsey Fry from Extinction Rebellion, a climate change group, has said that his organisation is made up of “the 99%” not “middle-class lefties” and that they have people from all backgrounds...
..........
......Richard Black, director of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, which supports strong action, said the group’s 2025 target was “an ambition that technically, economically and politically has absolutely no chance of being fulfilled”. It would mean banning flying, scrapping 38 million petrol and diesel vehicles and disconnecting 26 million gas boilers – all within seven years…

 

[Hillhater]

Musk teared up when she told him electricity is so expensive there (Australia) that some people were forced to choose between paying for enough AC to survive, and paying for food.

He is also massively unaware of the scale of the issues......( as are many others apparently !)
To him , that battery is "enormous"..but in effect it is totally insignificant even in the tiny 1.5 GW peak demand , South Australian , grid system.
See if you can find its contribution on a typical day....
http://nemlog.com.au/gen/region/#SA1
Honestly ...it is shown there !!
Even the proposed "Snowy 2" pumped hydro storage ....which is 3000+ times bigger capacity than Musks battery,..is only a tiny fraction of what would be required to support a RE based generation system for Australias demand
Musk is also on video stating that even under cloud, 80-90% of the suns energy gets through to solar panels !
5 mins into this..
https://youtu.be/nabM5MGq_NY

 

[Punx0r]

Musk teared up when she told him electricity is so expensive there (Australia) that some people were forced to choose between paying for enough AC to survive, and paying for food.

The cost of electricity in Australia varies quite a lot from state to state, with SA being the most expensive (a situation blamed exclusively on RE). Neither the average nor SA alone are "the most expensive in the world" as is sometimes claimed.

While I sympathise with people struggling on a limited & fixed income, the situation is not particular to Australia and certainly not to RE-sourced energy. Every winter, the UK, with it's relatively cheap and abundant gas heating has stories of people "having to chose between heating and eating". The quote above itself also doesn't make sense, as if AC is a survival requirement (as opposed to a comfort), how can you chose between it and food, which is also absolutely necessary?

Once again, the problems in SA which, in reality, are caused chiefly by an ailing infrastructure and piss-poor management of the system is blamed solely on the "inherent" flaws of using RE. It's the system that is letting people down, not the sun failing to shine, the wind to blow, biomass to burn, the rivers to run or the ground to heat.

 

[sendler2112]

Wet bulb temps above 40C can be lethal to elderly people.

 

[billvon]

Wet bulb temps above 40C can be lethal to elderly people.

Yep. And with temperatures climbing globally, that's just going to get worse. Indeed, air conditioning will be one of the fastest growing uses of electricity over the next 40 years or so. Fortunately there are several organizations out there (MIT, U Fl, Oak Ridge) working on improving efficiency and reducing the need for air conditioning. In addition, a few companies are now selling DC powered air conditioners that run on solar. When the sun is out (which fortunately coincides with the hottest days) the A/C runs and cools as much as it can with the power available. When the sun goes down the A/C either shuts down or runs at a lower cooling level from an AC/DC converter. Either way it doesn't require backfeeding the grid, which means it's more accessible to people who can't get permits for grid interconnect.

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/may/air-conditioning-use-emerges-as-one-of-the-key-drivers-of-global-electricity-dema.html

http://energy.mit.edu/news/cooling-buildings-worldwide/

https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/5-new-air-conditioning-technologies-keep-you-cool

https://www.minisplitwarehouse.com/product/ymgi-12000-btu-220v-solar-assisted-mini-split-heat-pump-air-conditioner-wmms-12ks-v2b56pv-mc295

 

[Hillhater]

Once again, the problems in SA which, in reality, are caused chiefly by an ailing infrastructure and piss-poor management of the system is blamed solely on the "inherent" flaws of using RE......

SA has some of the most modern generating facilities in Australia, having chosen to eliminate all coal generation and replace it with mainly wind and solar. (Though they have since realised that they needed to increase gas and Diesel generation capacity , for back up !).
These were not "management" decisions, but enforced political policies of the Labour controlled State government at that time. (Since failing to be re-elected )
SA has plenty of generation capacity to supply its 1-2GW peak demand, including over 2 GW of wind and 1+ GW of solar, and 3 + GW of gas and diesel generation.
But.. There are many periods (most days !) when demand exceeds the RE generation , and the state has to either resort to gas plants, or import cheaper power from other states (Victoria), which is mainly coal fueled.
This is further complicated by the wholesale power supply " bidding" system where demand shortages are auctioned off to generation companies, such that the Unpredicted shortages from Wind etc, can command much higher wholesale prices from the gas and interstate suppliers.
They could avoid much of the auction forced pricing problem, and have a significantly lower wholesale price if they simply Prioritised a continuous Gas fueled generation supply , rather than giving preference to the unpredictable wind and solar supplies as they currently do.

 

[Hillhater]

Yep. And with temperatures climbing globally, that's just going to get worse. Indeed, air conditioning will be one of the fastest growing uses of electricity over the next 40 years or so. ........

" One of" the fastest growing uses, ........but not the only one.
Heating, ventilation , lighting, and cooking are also huge demand segments, particularly in countries like China , India, Russia,..etc etc, This is ignoring any Commercial or industrial uses, which will explode in those countries.
Even in "hot" climate countries, A/C is heavily used during evening and overnight to reduce humidity,..so the correlation with peak solar supply is far from universal.

 

[billvon]

" One of" the fastest growing uses, ........but not the only one.
Heating, ventilation , lighting, and cooking are also huge demand segments, particularly in countries like China , India, Russia,..etc etc, This is ignoring any Commercial or industrial uses, which will explode in those countries.

Mostly. Although lighting energy worldwide is remaining fairly steady due to the fairly rapid transition from incandescent to compact fluorescent to solid state lighting. Thus while the use of electric lights is growing rapidly, energy use for that lighting is not.

Even in "hot" climate countries, A/C is heavily used during evening and overnight to reduce humidity,..so the correlation with peak solar supply is far from universal.

Yep. Which is why much of the research I mentioned has to do with ways of reducing humidity without needing conventional air conditioning.

 

[Hillhater]

...but still only in the research stage, with little data on energy required or costs.
Im sure there will be significant developments to improve efficiencies in many areas of power usage and solar generation,..
...however, that energy demand will continue to extend beyond daylight solar availability periods.
Hence , storage systems will be required.

 

[Punx0r]

Fortunately it's trivial to store "cold" for use during the dark hours if your supply is 100% PV.

If SA is short on electricity and needs lots of AC, are the authorities providing incentives for energy efficient AC units? Retrofitting insulation to homes and offices? Stipulating minimum insulation/maximum AC requirement per sq.metre standards for new buildings?

SA has plenty of generation capacity to supply its 1-2GW peak demand, including over 2 GW of wind and 1+ GW of solar, and 3 + GW of gas and diesel generation.

Why would there be 3+ GW of thermal generation for a peak demand that never exceeds 2GW?

 

[billvon]

Im sure there will be significant developments to improve efficiencies in many areas of power usage and solar generation,.....however, that energy demand will continue to extend beyond daylight solar availability periods. Hence , storage systems will be required.

Agreed. However, in the case of solar A/C, the storage system could be "a well insulated room" - considerably cheaper than a Tesla Powerwall.

 

[Hillhater]

Why would there be 3+ GW of thermal generation for a peak demand that never exceeds 2GW?

Insurance ??...they frequently experience zero output from wind and solar !
Optomism ??... Maybe they hope for a return to the glory days of industrial capacity !
Historically, SA has had peaks well above 3GW, but that was a few years ago (last in 2014 i think), before the major motor manufacturers (Ford, GM, Mitsubishi), .and steel industry, shut up shop and moved out, dramatically reducing the industrial demand.
Some of those gas plants are large thermal/steam "base load" plants, others are gas turbine " peaker" plants, and yet others (276 MW) are large portable emergency back up plants......
...so they fill different rolls in different situations. No doubt some of them are "mothballed" also as more and more RE is introduced. SA has approved a further 1+ GW of PV solar, and 3+ GW of Wind generation ..to be installed in the next few years !
Why would they need that ?

 

[Chalo]

Im sure there will be significant developments to improve efficiencies in many areas of power usage and solar generation,.....however, that energy demand will continue to extend beyond daylight solar availability periods. Hence , storage systems will be required.

Agreed. However, in the case of solar A/C, the storage system could be "a well insulated room" - considerably cheaper than a Tesla Powerwall.

But then it would become complicated to accommodate your diesel-powered television and whale oil lighting!

 

[Punx0r]

SA has approved a further 1+ GW of PV solar, and 3+ GW of Wind generation ..to be installed in the next few years !
Why would they need that ?

Presumably for the same reason an electric motor rated at 1kW will get you to 30mph sometimes, but not continuously :wink:

 

[Hillhater]

But wind doesnt work like that ..
If the wind is not blowing, then no amount of extra turbines is going to increase the energy generated.

 

[Punx0r]

How many simultaneously windless & sunless days do you get where you live? Because I've seen (but don't have to hand) analyses of a high (>80%) wind & solar energy mix using historical weather records and the number of "problem" days are very few. For those days, firstly you'd hope to have other forms of RE in your mix (hydro, tidal, geothermal, biomass) and/or fire up the standby gas peaker plants.

RE can be made to work 100% of the time, but (like all energy sources) at diminishing returns to achieve ever greater levels of reliability, but it's a strawman argument. Running on RE 99, 95, hell even 50% of the time is a *lot* better than running 100% on fossil fuels, as was the status quo only a few years ago.

 

[billvon]

RE can be made to work 100% of the time, but (like all energy sources) at diminishing returns to achieve ever greater levels of reliability, but it's a strawman argument. Running on RE 99, 95, hell even 50% of the time is a *lot* better than running 100% on fossil fuels, as was the status quo only a few years ago.

Agreed. I think a good mid term energy goal would be:
65% RE
20% nuclear (baseload)
15% gas peakers (for those hot days with no sun)

With 10% of our daily load represented by storage.

 

[sendler2112]

even 50% of the time is a *lot* better than running 100% on fossil fuels, as was the status quo only a few years ago.

Agreed. I think a good mid term energy goal would be:
65% RE
20% nuclear (baseload)
15% gas peakers (for those hot days with no sun)

With 10% of our daily load represented by storage.

We keep saying energy when what we mean to say is electricity. If we replace 50% of world electricity, we have replaced 10% of world energy. Right now, solar and wind account for 1.5% as "RE" (rebuildable ENERGY).
.
People need to wake to the scale of our dilemma in replacing fossil energy. False hope in a techno salvation is delaying the radical commitment to the new societal mechanisms that will be forced on us by design or by collapse. Design would be much better.

 

[billvon]

We keep saying energy when what we mean to say is electricity. If we replace 50% of world electricity, we have replaced 10% of world energy. Right now, solar and wind account for 1.5% as "RE" (rebuildable ENERGY).

Yes, sorry. Electricity from an energy (not power) perspective.

False hope in a techno salvation is delaying the radical commitment to the new societal mechanisms that will be forced on us by design or by collapse.

The solution, of course, will be a combination of both.

 

[Hillhater]

RE can be made to work 100% of the time, but (like all energy sources) at diminishing returns to achieve ever greater levels of reliability, but it's a strawman argument. Running on RE 99, 95, hell even 50% of the time is a *lot* better than running 100% on fossil fuels, as was the status quo only a few years ago.

Agreed. I think a good mid term energy goal would be:
65% RE
20% nuclear (baseload)
15% gas peakers (for those hot days with no sun)

With 10% of our daily load represented by storage.

What about the hot (or cold, ..sub zero) evenings with no wind ?
After 2.5 hrs your storage is gone and you are left with a possible 35% generation capacity !
Probably not enough to keep esential services operating.!
No , the reality is....as demonstrated by those countries that have attempted this madness.... that it is necessary to have 100% thermal back up (fossill, Nuclear, Gas, etc) ...because RE is unreliable and unpredictable.
If any of you bothered to study the data from Germany, SAustralia, even CA, you might just notice the major interventions of Thermal generation , and/or the dependency on imported power.....to keep the lights on.
And whilst you are studying those countries, compare their retail electricity prices with other conventional/thermal powered systems.

 

[billvon]

What about the hot (or cold, ..sub zero) evenings with no wind ?
After 2.5 hrs your storage is gone and you are left with a possible 35% generation capacity !

Electrical ENERGY. Not power.

 

[Hillhater]

What about the hot (or cold, ..sub zero) evenings with no wind ?
After 2.5 hrs your storage is gone and you are left with a possible 35% generation capacity !

Electrical ENERGY. Not power.

Avoiding the question again bill.
PS..capacity can be expressed as W or Wh...!
Either way ...you wont have enough of it on those cold/hot windless evenings !

 

[billvon]

Avoiding the question again bill.

I told you ENERGY, not POWER.

Your statement that "you are left with only 35% capacity" is in reference to POWER. (i.e. total available generation in GW.)

My statement on desirable percentages is in reference to ENERGY. (i.e. solar/wind are used to generate 50% of the total ENERGY.)

Do you see the difference?

 

[Hillhater]

Avoiding the question again bill.

I told you ENERGY, not POWER.

Your statement that "you are left with only 35% capacity" is in reference to POWER. (i.e. total available generation in GW.)

Was it bill ??....or maybe thats what you assumed,...and infact i was thinking in terms of GWh !
So please explain how a system with 65% of its ENERGY supply unavailable, and only 10% of its ENERGY capacity in storage,....can function normally...if at all ??