38% of cars sold in China are now electric, Sinopec says the ICE is doomed

[neptronix]

So if the west continues to be selfish and keep buying cheap Chinese products, the domestic industries and jobs will continue to decline until only imported goods are available.

Yeah that's a real problem. With not a lot of good answers.

Here in the states when we had good trade with China, we'd export a lot of agricultural products ( soybeans, pork etc )
Chinese could also buy American owned electronics ( computer chips etc ) and cars until recently.

The trade was still one sided, but at least at one point, free trade was a net benefit.
Cooperation is always better than competition. Too bad Uncle Sam got his jimmies rustled by his largest trade partner. Now we can't have cooperation.

Significant deregulation would be needed in combination with a significant cost of living decrease ( build housing until it's dirt cheap ) in order to bring manufacturing back here. I think that if the tarrif situation gets too punitive, places like Indonesia and India might find themselves with more factories all the sudden.

At some point we have to face up to this problem of “economic strangulation by stealth”, and restrict some of the major imported products to enable domestic industries to survive.
Of course that means we have to be prepared to pay more !

It is a problem that basically 100% of our automaker manufacturing is at risk. I get it.
Luckily in Australia you don't have as much at stake.

Speaking of Australia, looks like 10% of the cars sold there are now EVs.
EV sales reach new highs in Australia, making up nearly 10% of car market

I see you have Chinese EVs available to you. Are you seeing aggressively low EV prices on offer out there?

 

[neptronix]

Interesting plot twist, Renault is going to be selling a $20k EV:

 

[Hillhater]

Speaking of Australia, looks like 10% of the cars sold there are now EVs

I see you have Chinese EVs available to you. Are you seeing aggressively low EV prices on offer out there?

10% ,. But is is only a small market (1.1 million) compared to the US/world, and most of the growth is in PHEVs rather thanBEVs,.. despite some dramatic price drops on BEVs (Tesla Y , the top seller, reduced by $16k this year, but sales reduced from 2023 !)

 

[marvin78]

'Be prepared to pay more' -> uhm I assume you voted to raise minimum wages in that case, by like 50% or so at least?

Most people are struggling as is. Or at least they perceive their existence as a struggle...

If you want to convince people that it's fair for them to pay more, you first have to get them to accept they are in a position where this is both feasible and acceptable. For THEM. Not because some rich guy wants to keep his factories running in the US, because for consumers it doesn't matter who made something or where.

Interesting plot twist, Renault is going to be selling a $20k EV:

Now this is more like it. Looks like all that joining up and trying to create shared platforms for their cars is finally starting to pay off ( this based on CMF-BEV ).

 

[JackFlorey]

'Be prepared to pay more' -> uhm I assume you voted to raise minimum wages in that case, by like 50% or so at least?

Most people are struggling as is. Or at least they perceive their existence as a struggle...

There has never, ever been a time when people weren't struggling. There has never been a time when people didn't say "times are tough" - or that that phrase didn't appear often in ads and narratives. Not because of any objective state of the economy or the job market, but because people maintain a homeostasis of perceived struggle.

 

[marvin78]

There has never, ever been a time when people weren't struggling. There has never been a time when people didn't say "times are tough" - or that that phrase didn't appear often in ads and narratives. Not because of any objective state of the economy or the job market, but because people maintain a homeostasis of perceived struggle.

That's why I added my ending sentence

I do feel like it's getting worse with time, when I was growing up there were still so many people around who actually were alive in WWII, the current generation doesn't have that ( I guess for American's this timeline will be different / should be different ).

Anyway, so many especially right wing people keep crying how terrible we're doing 'we're doomed whaa whaa'

In reality, the % of people living at or below the poverty rate has remained stable ( at 7.7% last year, way way to high off course ).

The percentage of millionaires has increased from 278k to 318k, a 14.4% increase.

'We're doomed'

Ofc, the people in that 7.7% are right when THEY feel that way, because for them it's way more applicable. But for most people, we don't have it bad at all.

*ps all numbers relate to the Dutch economy / population, not the US before someone thinks I'm going crazy

 

[JackFlorey]

I do feel like it's getting worse with time

But again everyone thinks that. My parents thought the 70s were a terrible time for the US - civil strife, rampant inflation, unemployment, high energy prices. But many today reminisce about the 70's as the "good old days."

Today unemployment is far lower, energy prices are lower, inflation is down and the stock market is doing great. All objectively far better than the 1970's. But people still say "times are terrible; why can't we Make America Great Again like it was in the 1970's?" That's perception, not reality.

 

[marvin78]

I did come to that same conclusion, pointed out by the increase in % of 'rich people' vs 'poor people' being stable.

When I said 'I feel it's getting worse' it's more the perception of how bad it is. People in the 70's might complain about the economy not being great for them, but they had the ( recent ) recollection still fresh in their memory how bad things actually can be ( during the war ). That's why I feel current generation is easier convinced 'things are really bad for them now' and the generation before me was more down to earth with 'it could be a LOT worse'.

 

[Hillhater]

'Be prepared to pay more' -> uhm I assume you voted to raise minimum wages in that case, by like 50% or so at least?

No !..those ethat can afford to buy new goods..cars, electronics, RVs, foreign clothes, furniture , etc, are not on the poverty level ( though they may think they are !)
If they really want a BYD rather than a US built Tesla/Ford/GM etc,…then make sure they pay for that decision.
The $$$s raised From any increased import taxes/tarrifs can be used to support those in real poverty in the US.
And make sure those buying imported luxury goods are aware of the type of social systems they are funding in countries like China.

 

[marvin78]

The issue is, if you don't raise wages for those people, they can't afford something US made, with employees wanting US wages.

edit: and what do you think happens with the second hand market when you make cheap new options unavailable....

No !..those ethat can afford to buy new goods..cars, electronics, RVs, foreign clothes, furniture , etc, are not on the poverty level ( though they may think they are !)

 

[Hillhater]

The issue is, if you don't raise wages for those people, they can't afford something US made, with employees wanting US wages.

If you believe that, ..then carry on buying cheaper imported goods …BUT be aware of the inevitable consequences of a failed domestic economy when there is no industry , less employment, and the only jobs are in the public service sector ( tax payer funded)

 

[marvin78]

If you believe that, ..then carry on buying cheaper imported goods

Unlike religion, this isn't faith based.

…BUT be aware of the inevitable consequences of a failed domestic economy when there is no industry , less employment, and the only jobs are in the public service sector ( tax payer funded)

I am.

Should that change what I believe? I find that rather odd. Consequences of things should not change if things are true or not.

If anything, I would say I agree with your assessment and am waiting on your proposed solution as so far instead of denying the truth in what I said you only pointed out what the unwanted consequences of this could be.

It's a question which has been asked for quite some time, the answer at least one which is proven to be true remains elusive.

 

[Hillhater]

I would say I agree with your assessment and am waiting on your proposed solution

My proposed solution is as i said, …stop being selfish and dont buy Cheap imported products.
Support domestic production if you want a viable future economy.
Sure it will hurt, and you may not be able to aquire all those shiny cheap gadgets, but the alternative future result will be much more painfull.

 

[marvin78]

I see, the answer remains elusive to this moment still.

 

[JackFlorey]

BUT be aware of the inevitable consequences of a failed domestic economy when there is no industry

We are all better off if there is a vibrant WORLD economy.

The US is still the #1 exporter in the world of equipment to make solar cells and ICs. If we ban the purchase of ICs/PV from foreign countries, or put high tariffs on them, we hurt ourselves.

 

[neptronix]

German car manufacturing in more trouble:

 

[stancecoke]

In 2024 BMW sold more EVs in the US than ever before...

https://insideevs.com/news/747173/bmw-2024-us-ev-sales-record/

And BMW is the biggest US car exporter with its plant in Spartanburg

U.S. Department of Commerce names BMW Manufacturing as top automotive exporter by value

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the automobile manufacturer led the nation in automotive exports by value for the ninth consecutive year.

upstatebusinessjournal.com

 

[neptronix]

How many? i never see BMW's electric cars out here. It's almost always Teslas.

I hear it's VW that's getting it's ass kicked out there, no?


Apparently China's own market is doing crappy, especially for gasoline brands. Might be why they pivoted to exports recently..

 

[stancecoke]

How many? i never see BMW's electric cars out here.

About 50000 EVs in 2024, see the linked article. Maybe you can't identify them as EVs, as they are looking exactly like the ICE versions

 

[neptronix]

Oh i see, doing 1/7th as good as tesla is quite a feat in the USA.

Okay fine i stand corrected! I didn't realize that BMW isn't involved in the German carmaking slump.




Some sales numbers per company here.. but spoiler alert.. everyone still lives in Tesla's shadow out here:

Electric Vehicle Sales and Market Share (US - Q4 2024 Updates)

 

[neptronix]

Saw this recently. Some German car makers are going for a 'if you can't beat them, join them' strategy and trying to produce cars in, and for China.

 

[99t4]

Like they do in Tennessee (VW), South Carolina (VW, BMW, Mercedes Benz), Alabama (Mercedes Benz)?

 

[stancecoke]

produce cars in, and for China.

All brands are producing in China since 20 years or even longer. Especially models with longer wheel base, that are only demanded and sold on the China market.
Of course the "premium" (luxury) brands profit from their image. Like they do all over the world. A Mercedes costs twice of a VW, but there are enough people who are willing to pay that price. It's the same with smart phones. Why do people pay hundreds of dollars for an i-phone, while a $50 Android phone does the same job? No idea.

I think the E-Viking is wrong, if he says in the video, the XIAOMI EV is "premium" for half the money of a Mercedes or BMW.
"premium" is not defined by technical features, but by the image/reputation.

 

[Hillhater]

"premium" is not defined by technical features, but by the image/reputation.

Very true,… something the Japanese had to deal with in the ‘60s, when trying to break into the US and European markets.…
.they succeeded by focussing on quality, reliability and customer service !
Unfortunately those are features which seem to be unimportant to many manufacturers currently.