Coronavirus Calculations

Daily new cases
New York Metro area on left, US, minus the New York Metro area, on the right.

daily new cases.jpg

Beyond the Cuomo led NYC area Confederation of States, the number of US new daily confirmed infections is still increasing. Opening States while infection rates are still increasing is just giving up and surrendering!

US government ordered 100,000 body bags, likely will be ordering more ...
 
DrkAngel

There are non alcohol sanitizers but they may not be effective in getting the fat layer off the china virus particle.
For every inmate that gets covid19 and perishes, their family better sue. Inmates that get covid 19 but suffer, should sue too.
You say there are private prisons, even more open to being sued.


The grocery store had glass bottled sanitizer Purell. It looked like olive oil when I first past it. They want $15cdn for 750ml, while a week before they were selling a spray bottle for $5 for 20ml. 750ml for $15cdn is not a bad price. It really should have had a spray top to it. I havent been back to see if its gone from the shelves or not. It would be good to pour that stuff into small spray bottles to carry around with you.

I have purchased 3 items totalling $98cdn (inc s/h) worth of wipes from an electronics distributor, 75% iso alc. They are local, but their store front isnt open. Cheap shipping rates $10 aint tea bag.
 
markz said:
There are non alcohol sanitizers but they may not be effective in getting the fat layer off the china virus particle.
For every inmate that gets covid19 and perishes, their family better sue. Inmates that get covid 19 but suffer, should sue too.
Click to expand...
Soap is more thorough and effective than alcohol sanitizers! So ...
 
TESTING! TESTING! TESTING!

Testing vs Virus control tells the story.


testing.jpg

But T-Rump seems to oppose testing ... is afraid higher confirmed case numbers would make him look bad?
 
The (in)accuracy of blood serum / antibody tests

Absolutely needed to track the outbreak from a population epidemiology POV, to guide policy decisions

For an individual, not as useful.

Plus we still have no idea how much viral loading confers how long an immunity

or if any at all, in which case neither vaccines nor herd immunity would be possible

https://qz.com/1848674/how-to-interpret-the-specificity-sensitivity-of-antibody-tests
 
body bags, interesting. if they ramped up production of things like masks and gloves because of shortages. did they ramp up production of body bags?
heres my point, if theres less dead people to date this year compared to last year then logically there should be no shortages of body bags, if anything, a surplus. no?
 
goatman said:
heres my point, if theres less dead people to date this year compared to last year then logically there should be no shortages of body bags, if anything, a surplus. no?
Click to expand...

Excess U.S. deaths hit estimated 37,100 in pandemic’s early days, far more than previously known

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/?arc404=true
 
More excess deaths calculations
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

No substitute for accurate reporting across all the health "systems" (ha!) involved or hard data from sufficient testing, but I guess we need to accept we're flying in the dark here
 
Stats-evaluation of virus expansion\remission.

spread.jpg

While some States are providing best-accurate numbers, tis likely others are passively, (by not testing broadly), or actively, (by fudging numbers), trying to lesson the apparent severity of their infections.

Ultimate hypocrisy? ... T-rump accusing the Chinese of downplaying the severity of the virus.
 
A good explainer on what needs doing, recognizing how important it is to get the economy rolling again

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/when-will-it-be-safe-to-end-coronavirus-lockdowns
 
Need testing to increase by multitudes, ideally tests that can be done at your GP MD, and are quick, 5-10 minutes at max. Next need 100's of millions of PPE - N95 masks, surgical masks, cloth masks and full face shields. Need to get elective surgeries going again. Get the economy going. Build them pipelines, drill drill drill drill drill drill drill drill.
 
markz said:
Need testing to increase by multitudes, ideally tests that can be done at your GP MD, and are quick, 5-10 minutes at max.
Click to expand...
Nope, public drive-throughs located within 30 min or every 50K populations, no scrip needed, first one each month free, more free with a scrip.

Plus a team of contact tracers, 15-20 per 100K



 
Another, focused on just how important testing is

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/611431

_____
President Trump has seemed skeptical of the utility of tests, even though White House employees are tested for the virus every day. After Katie Miller, a member of Vice President Mike Pence’s staff, tested positive for the virus today, Trump said that the result illustrated why “the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great.”

“She was tested very recently and tested negative, and today I guess, for some reason, she tested positive,” the president said. “The tests are perfect, but something can happen between a test, where, it’s good, and then something happens, and then all of a sudden…” He did not finish his thought.

_____
That last word is used a bit generously there

 
DrkAngel said:
Stats-evaluation of virus expansion\remission.

file.php


While some States are providing best-accurate numbers, tis likely others are passively, (by not testing broadly), or actively, (by fudging numbers), trying to lesson the apparent severity of their infections.

Ultimate hypocrisy? ... T-rump accusing the Chinese of downplaying the severity of the virus.
Click to expand...

Link to interactive map
 
No mention of terms like "a flattened curve" by the talking heads on the tele. Seems like the daily #'s the talking tele heads speak of are going down. No new news of any treatments coming to the forefront. Nothing new on any quaratine runners, or coughing attacks being arrested. Just hearing terms of "reopening" and "Stage 1 or 2". Lots of Coronavirus television commercials, kumbaya


Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbayah

Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's praying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya

Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's sleeping, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya
 
The whole point of flattening the curve was to buy us time to put in the effective prevention measures that **don't** require everyone self-isolating!

Testing up the wazoo, extensive rapid effective contact tracing and rigorous lockdown of those known to be infectious.

Since we're not doing that, the economy has no chance of ramping back up, we'll just be playing whackamole on a state / regional basis, with the population not knowing who to trust.

Worst of all possible worlds, waiting for herd immunity to kick in (70+% infected, if there is any immunity) or an effective vaccine, while millions die.
 
by john61ct » May 11 2020 8:37am

The whole point of flattening the curve was to buy us time to put in the effective prevention measures that **don't** require everyone self-isolating!

Testing up the wazoo, extensive rapid effective contact tracing and rigorous lockdown of those known to be infectious.

Since we're not doing that, the economy has no chance of ramping back up, we'll just be playing whackamole on a state / regional basis, with the population not knowing who to trust.

Worst of all possible worlds, waiting for herd immunity to kick in (70+% infected, if there is any immunity) or an effective vaccine, while millions die.
Click to expand...

Agree and don't see the point of locking down now. Sitting back and watching. This weekend my city was all out like nothing was going on. Hope it does not get bad but we will see. We are testing not for the virus but how bad it will get when ignored.
 
No, the inevitable pileup of body bags will be the signal.

Tests at current rates are only enough for triaging individuals, not even that when things get bad.

Enough to guide policy would be at least triple, more like 10x our current rate.
 
it looks pretty flat if you look at the Daily and not Cumulative, do they have Active?
 
Just remember, if they are only reporting confirmed test results then the actual numbers are at least 5x higher could be 100x no one can know.

Except by the jump in the death rates 2-4 weeks later.
 
Need to know the # of tests they are doing on a daily basis to get a more accurate reading on the situ.
Even better are tests on new people, vs retesters.

The daily #'s look flat, and a more detail analysis of the daily's would be in order.
 
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