I've bought a lot of stuff from China and the US (I'm in the UK too). Whether you get hit for VAT and duty is pot luck, so far I'd say that I've ended up getting charged for around 30% of the packages that have arrived. As an example, I bought a hub motor, controller and CA from Justin at ebikes.ca and ended up paying VAT, duty and a hefty handling charge, but then I bought the best part of £1000 worth of Headway cells direct from Headway and ended up paying no tax or duty, they just turned up at my door in a big crate. I've just bought some LiPo packs from HK, both shipments have come through without getting caught for charges.
The choice of shipping company seems significant. In my experience I always get hit with high charges from UPS and FedEx, but often get away without charges from EMS or USPS. I have a sneaking suspicion that both UPS and FedEx treat customs clearance as another way to make money, so will charge on pretty much anything so that they can 'earn' their handling fee. EMS and USPS are handled here in the UK by Royal Mail/Parcelforce, who don't have the same rip-off mentality that governs the other companies.
FWIW, I've rarely been charged import duty, even when VAT and a handling charged has been levied. My advice would be to ask the vendor to ship using EMS and then keep your fingers crossed that the package gets through without being randomly selected for charges...................
Jeremy
PS: VAT is still 17.5% at the moment, not 20%