End of the world? I think not, but change is a coming...

[bigmoose]

I have always been a pragmatic kind of guy. I was blessed to be born in the early 1950's and I have lived an economy where production tracks pretty closely energy usage. I tracked the change in the 70s after the first oil embargo, when we got more efficient.

Now there is more than the "feeling" of another change... There is just too much going on lately. I perceive the Deep Water Horizon well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico is a pivot point in history. Not fully for it's technical impact, but because of the leverage it will have for awareness of our oil situation.

Here is a link to an article on The Oil Drum that I found illuminating, and coherent with my view of the situation. It couples technically the oil/sovereign debt problems that we are all living. Perhaps it can generate discussion? It opines a decade of stagnation, then a slide into GDP decreases of 2% to 4% a year. That is sure going to change things around!

BTW if we "go electric" some studies I have read show peak copper around 2018 go 2020. So if peak oil happened in the 2002 to 2008 time frame, how are we going to go electric with peak copper just around the corner? I am not worried about peak Uranium, because the Thorium cycle (already in use by India) is a good way around that issue and multiplies our Uranium inventory by five fold. Then there is always the possibility of bring back the breeder reactor...

Profound issues for our families and our times...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6542

 

[grindz145]

how are we going to go electric with peak copper just around the corner?

Bigmoose, I appreciate how well you formulate these discussions.

What's the difference between peak copper and peak oil? It is analogous if we used crude oil just for engine lubrication. You would lose some in the process of renewing, but in general it is reusable. Copper can be recycled many many times, and of course many people have successful businesses doing this. Not to mention aluminum isn't a terrible conductor either

Anyway it's certainly a step in the right direction. An infinitely renewable resource will take many more iterations.

 

[hydro-one]

I too can feel this "change " in the air. I sense the bp disaster is a turning point when evil starts to win . It is perhaps with purpose that people in a postion of POWER sit around and WATCH this happening. . Once the oceans are destroyed then , it will be easier for evil to enact their plan. Which is complete world domination, for all eternity.

Prove it wrong. A monkey could do a better job of fixing this oil disaster. but no, they sit idely by....

I dont want to imagine the world without ocean life. I want our side to win!!

whats with that toy "top hat" , cant they make it any bigger? ITS A JOKE TO THEM THEY (must be/are) PURE EVIL.

Anybody else here feel like travelling to the site and mabye solving this thing now?

 

[bigmoose]

whats with that toy "top hat" , cant they make it any bigger? ITS A JOKE TO THEM THEY (must be/are) PURE EVIL.

I could go on and on about this well. I have been in contact with folks in the area, and spending time helping to analyze what happened, but from the outside with open source info. The bottom line is that it appears BP took extreme hardware and operational shortcuts in the well design and in the last 2 days of operations. This "accident" never needed to happen along with the loss of 10 souls. One deck hand had premonitions and wrote his will weeks before he returned to the rig, and taught his wife how to run the motor home and how to care for the family... I need to stop, or I will say things I will regret...

Oh, almost forgot what I wanted to say. It appears "they" have severely comprised the internal casings/liners of the wellhead. (i.e. a casing is ruptured or a casing hanger displaced/blown.) The bore may be unstable or close to unstable. A lot of us think they are seriously afraid of an uncontrolled seafloor eruption at or near the well head. (Not the eruption 7 miles away that has been alluded to, but is unproven.) This is not over by a longshot... but that is another topic.

 

[julesa]

Many geologists have said that all the big fields of light sweet crude oil have already been found (in other words, they think they have some kind of idea of the limits of currently unknown reserves). I haven't heard any equivalent statements for copper, and copper's recyclable. I'd be interested in looking at those studies if you have a link handy, Moose.

I think demand for light sweet crude has already started to exceed supply. I think that's why the price of a barrel of the natural light sweet crude has been hovering around $75 or $80 for over a year now -- about the same price as a barrel of synthetic crude extracted from bitumen or tar sand. As long as there are viable alternatives to light sweet crude available, and as long as we have the resources to meet our energy demands, I don't think we'll see anything disastrous, (aside from the environmental degradation that comes with those more polluting energy sources). The question is whether we can continue to fill the oil supply/demand gap with synthetic crude over the next decade or so. It takes time to get new production facilities on line, and if demand exceeds existing facilities' ability to meet it, we could see some real problems with energy price volatility and economic destabilization.

I hope we'll get to the point where clean nuclear power and/or solar thermal plants are politically and economically viable sometime in the next decade or two.

 

[swbluto]

Yeah, I agree, you're pretty lucky to have grown during an era of tremendous energy growth and have all the associated growth in wealth and living quality. Given that, the issue of oil in an interesting one.

The growth of the economy is indeed connected to global energy input and efficiency in converting that energy to physical goods and services. If one were to look at "real GDP growth" and compare it to oil consumption, then I think a positive difference between the two would be encouraging, because that would imply that economic growth is dependent on other factors that may persist beyond peak oil. However, growth isn't likely to be as strong, I'll admit.

But, I look around and I see the earth as a whole has a LOT of energy input without oil. It's called solar energy. Oil is really just an exhaustible "battery" for past solar energy that chlorophyll-based life grew from and fed the rest of the food-chain, resulting in the fossils that fuel our current economy (Through fossil fuels). Our current oil energy usage is only something like 1 / 1000th of the total solar energy received. So if a process is found that converts solar energy to portable energy efficiently (economically speaking), energy input can still continue to grow. In the long run, solar energy harvesting really does seem inevitable. However, we may not develop that type of technology whether it be genetically engineered bioreactors, solar cells, biofuels or whatever else for some time after oil has peaked so a global "recession" does seem likely over the next couple of decades (or at least per capita wealth will be impacted as energy input is stagnant and population grows). However, once the situation has become crystal clear to the world, I have a feeling innovation will dramatically increase, or at least investment into such will in terms of time and money and a solution may come soon enough. Necessity(Urgency, probably more accurately) is the mother of invention, so they say.

Nuclear energy may be a stop-gap measure that may work for the next century or so until nuclear fuels are exhausted. (More direct) Solar energy seems particularly inevitable. I've heard it'll take a lot of time to implement, though, so it may not avoid stagnancy or recession over the next decade or two.

Regardless of the global future pathway, I agree that significant change is coming. But even without the change in oil supply, significant change would be inevitable with technology anyhoo. This change, however, may impact per capita wealth in a not-so positive manner.

With change, though, comes opportunity! And a world of opportunity is what I really like.

 

[dogman dan]

Peak doesn't mean it's gone, just that it's gonna be real expensive from now on. Aluminum wiring willl make a comeback in your house which will run on 50 amps again as in the old days, not 200 or more like now.

 

[John in CR]

Interesting post Bigmoose,

I've felt this coming change for a few years now, and I too see the spill as a critical turning point. I think it will finally galvanize the public into pushing for real change after a few decades of complacency. I don't think the blowout is pivotal in itself, but instead the straw that broke the camel's back. I have to believe that the sleeping giant will wake from it's coma. I, for one, am excited about the change I see coming. I'm not concerned about end of the world stuff or evil winning over right, and I believe the fossil fuel issue can be pushed to the future simply through conservation, and a change to natural gas for significant segments can help buy enough time for alternatives to sufficiently develop. These were true 2 months ago, but what I believe has changed is that the general public appears ready to accept and push for change.


Regarding your subsequent post specifically about the well, I've been wondering why they don't just plug the well by first creating a concrete foundation attached to the useless BOP. From what you're saying though, they wouldn't try to plug it from the top even if they could, because it's sounds possible that the entire near surface structure could just get blasted right out of the sea floor. How much pressure are we looking at down at the bottom of that hole for something like that to happen? Is it already leaking through cracks in that multi-layer plug of concrete and steel casing? If not, why aren't they already be pumping massive amounts of concrete and steel to enlarge and reinforce the existing "plug". Isn't it realistic to put enough weight and structure on top of it at the sea floor to 1. Make sure an "oil volcano" doesn't occur. and 2. Give them a means to end the leak and either capture 100% of what's coming up or simply close the valve with surety, without having to wait what could be many months for the relief well to plug it from the bottom?

John

 

[bigmoose]

The well's TD (total depth or terminal depth) is 18,360 ft below sea level. The mud line is 5067 ft below sea level, well mudline to TD is 13293 ft.

The well was static with 14 lb per gallon mud up to sea level. This implies a pay zone pressure of 14*.052*18360 = 13,366 psi in the deposit. If pure crude from pay zone to BOP at 7 lbs per gallon subtract 7*.052*(18360-5067) = 4838 psi from 13 366 = 8527 psi at the BOP. If gas filled the well casing you would loose the static pressure reduction of the oil over 8528 feet. So with gas and no restriction the BOP pressure goes above the 8500 towards the reservoir pressure of 13366.

The flow is coming up the well and cement actually weights less than drilling mud. So the mud/oil/water/gas dilute and destroy the cement. The well MUST be brought static for the cement plugs to be placed and to harden.

There is only one hope now and it is the relief wells. There is no other potential solution. The relief well problem is severe however. One must kill the 13 366psi pressure, but with only the 13293 foot head to the mudline (bottom of the ocean) This will require 13366- 8.34*.052*5067 = 11,168 psi 11168/13293/.052= 16.2 lb/gal mud that is doable... but the pore pressure, the psi at which the formation will fracture and "drink" the mud in is believed to be right around 17ppg... it is a balancing act.

The ocean floor in that area I am told is like 50 feet of pudding. No strength at all. You can't kill this top down. Our best chance was the top kill, and the casings were either fractured by top kill or were dislodged/fractured before... it's a mess.

You guys appreciate this pressure. Formation pressure acting on a piston the size of a quarter would launch two 4 door 4 wheel drive Chevy Tahoe's to the moon. Frankly I am always concerned by the 1900 psi in my nitrogen, oxygen and argon bottles in my lab... think 5 times that pressure! Blows my mind. I don't want to be around that amount of energy.

Realize the intercept wells are 3000 feet away from the well bore. They must drill down 18360 feet and HIT a 9 7/8 inch well casing, then mill through the center of it! ... oh and not blow out like the original well did.

This is a dicey activity in the gulf. I agree with you, the Gulf will recover, mostly (not Luke's beloved coral reefs if they get hit) but within a year or two I don't think it will be obvious that this happened... but the political, psychological and intellectual ripples will be felt for generations.

Here is the article on peak copper: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6307

 

[julesa]

Here is the article on peak copper: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6307

Thanks for the link!
-Jules

 

[swbluto]

Just have to say, in regard to the "Copper peak" and other mineral mining peaks, I think that'll be more directly related to peak oil than an actual peak in the material extraction rates. No doubt that the extraction difficulty/costliness becomes harder/more-expensive as more is mined, but I think peak oil will curb it more than actual reserve supply will.

This is because *gasp* mining costs are heavily dependent on oil for that awesomely portable energy that the energy intensive business needs. Removing tons and tons of rock from a mine and refining it requires, non-surprisingly, lots and lots of energy and it's far beyond the capabilities of donkeys in the business's modern state. Typically, the cost of oil that a man uses driving a mega dumptruck in an hour far exceeds the man's pay-rate.

 

[katou]

How do they figure how much copper will be recyled? Currently, due to it's price, anything around here copper is recycled. If the price goes higher, then the last dregs will get recycled too. Transformers from microwaves, stripping down house wire, switch from copper pipes to plastic, etc.

How would that figure into it?

Katou

 

[John in CR]

BigMoose,

Thanks for the detailed pressure info. I'm glad someone at least gathered guys of your caliber to take a look. What about the weight of the drill string, or did that slip through and to the bottom or the hole, or is it hanging by the BOP? Or does the drill string weight not matter because the flow is coming up both the inside and outside of the drill string?

I'm from Louisiana, and even though I'm not an engineer, those pressure numbers were like a sledgehammer in the gut. Even if they never close the valves due to the pressure, I liked the idea of a containment vessel with a lot of big valves at the top being lowered over the BOP and cemented to the BOP thru side valves up to near the leak level. Then they can attach multiple pipes for the oil to go up and capture 100% of what is leaking, at least while a hurricane isn't near.

Before I was thinking the pressure differential wasn't so big, and closing the valves of this vessel was possible. Am I missing something because that oil coming out before the cap was on didn't look like over 2k psi greater than the water pressure at that depth? There must me more leak the video doesn't show, or is it just the much larger pipe that makes the view misleading.

 

[Papa]

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:BP

Anyone interested a 'group buy' on cheap oil? :lol:

http://drippingoil.blogspot.com/2010/06/bp-nysebp-bankruptcy-and-stock-trading.html

 

[bigmoose]

Here are the two best credible references for what is really in the hole:
BP presentation to the Feds: http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100527/BP.Presentation.pdf

DOE composite map of casings: http://www.energy.gov/open/documents/3.1_Item_2_Macondo_Well_07_Jun_1900.pdf

As of yesterday, the DOE reported the following static pressures:
2250 psi at the tophat
2560 psi at the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) disconnect
2620 at top blind shears in BOP
3240 below top pipe rams and above lower pipe rams in BOP
3670 below lower pipe rams and above BOP test rams
4400 at the bottom of the BOP connection to the well head

So you can see there is significant restriction within the well bore below the BOP. Keep in mind that without drilling mud in the pipe if you close off/shut off the well you will get reservoir pressure at the BOP minus the hydrostatic fluid column weight. That's a lot above 4400 psi! With the damaged liner/casings/hangers/seals that they won't tell us about, you can see how shutting this well in could create a bigger catastrophe.

Here is a pix I screen snapped when they cut off the drill riser above the flex joint with the big shears. Note that there are two pipes inside of the big pipe or riser. There is only supposed to have been one 5.5 inch diameter drill string/pipe in there. Another indicator of "bad stuff" happening.
View attachment 1

Here is how it was supposed to look, the same riser crimp cut/shear cut downstream of the foldover crimp that was above the LMRP. The outside riser or pipe in both shots is 21 inches in diameter 0.875 inch wall pipe, the inner pipe is believed to be 5 1/2 inch drill pipe.



John your idea we think is coming next. It is called a overshot tool. I likened it to an expandable coupling that will screw over the pipe stub, or screw into it and then seal and expand. [These oil guys have a lingo of their own! Their a hoot to talk to! But I respect them, and they've been kind to the ol' guy.]

John, it does appear the pressure and the flow has been going up with time. The gummit said that the top kill/junk shot polished the inside of the BOP and opened up the passages. All this gas is coming up with entrained sand, so there is continuous sandblasting of internal passages opening them with time. Some have said this reservoir is "very large" so it is not drawing down at any appreciable rate.

Perhaps someone can help me with a navigation problem. We think these are UTM coordinates in the subject area of the gulf. I am trying to figure out how far away the billowing cloud ROV is from the well head in direction and distance. If someone knows an online navigation calculator for distance and direction, please let me know. The "billowing cloud" ROV is an underwater Remote Operated Vehicle that appears to be watching a billowing cloud of "stuff" from the seafloor.

ROV at well head navigation display: E 1202514.91 N 10431435.11
ROV at billowing cloud display: E 1204229.41 N 10433840.12

How far apart are they and in what direction is the billowing cloud ROV relative to the well head? Or if you know how to do the calculation, just let me know. I don't even know the units these coordinates are in for sure, meters?

Guys note that I am not part of the official investigation. Just hanging with some well hands, a couple are out on rigs/boats in the Gulf, a few drillers, two well engineers, and a company man that are trying to figure out what "they" aren't telling us.

 

[Papa]

Appreciate the info bigmoose. Obviously, a significantly complex problem.

Question;

Since the liner dimensions were known, and (I assume) the drillers knew the pressure at the BOP, why the lack of accurate 'spill' numbers at the onset?

 

[RWP]

Nothing has the energy density of fossil fuels.

All the large known oil fields are in decline, some like Anwar (Saudi) and Cantarell (Mexico), are declining as much as 10% to 15% a year. The North Sea is largely taped out.

Countries are not telling what reserves they have.

The amount of oil in newly discovered fields is worth a few months in terms of total world needs.

Most of the food grown needs large amounts of fossil fuel derived constituents.

Fossil fuel is used to make all the trick techno stuff we love, or love to hate.

Solar, wind and other renewable energy sources must be small scale and very local to be effective.

The Limits to Growth said it in 1972.

Conservation is everything.

Change is coming.

The way we, as individuals and as a planet, deal with change, at least this change...it does not look good.

Get very local, know your neighbors, learn to grow your own food, repair your own stuff, ride a bike, make music, get down.

Some resources include:
energybulletin.net
postcarbon.org
theoildrum.com
Rob Hopkins
Michael Pollan
Bill McKibben
YES Magazine

 

[bigmoose]

Since the liner dimensions were known, and (I assume) the drillers knew the pressure at the BOP, why the lack of accurate 'spill' numbers at the onset?

BP's fine is up to $4,300 for every barrel leaked into the Gulf. Perhaps one might say, BP did not want to come "clean" on the real size of the discharge?

Example

4300 x 28,000 bbl/day x 90 days = $10 000 000 000 realistic estimate

4300 x 60,000 bbl/day x 120 days = $30 000 000 000 probably worst case

BP market capitalization is $91 000 000 000 as of today. Bankruptcy is close in a worst case scenario.

Get very local, know your neighbors, learn to grow your own food, repair your own stuff, ride a bike, make music, get down.

I used to like to whittle and listen to music. I still love to talk over a glass of iced tea. I hate to fly, but love to ride... maybe I'll take up painting some day...

 

[John in CR]

Big Moose,

Thank you, as always you nail the pertinent info. Just to make sure I understand correctly regarding the relief well(s), there's a chance once they hit the bore (a difficult hit/miss/retry process itself) that the pressure is so high that there's a real possibility that they won't be able to get enough of the heavy mud in there to plug it, and to the extent the flow opens the bore more, that possibility increases.

That prospect is scary enough, though if they start capturing virtually all of what comes up, the leak converts to abnormal production, and the proceeds can help pay damages. I guess the real nightmare at this point is a big gas pocket making its way through the formation to the bore, because a big kick now could pop what is essentially a partial plug right off the top of the well, leaving just a gaping hole in the sea floor spewing oil and gas out at a much greater rate.

Since you have access to some hard data, if you notice any significant changes in the numbers or interesting trends (favorable or not) please do post them here.


Back to your original post:
I like to think I'm a balance of optimist+realist, so I believe that tangible net good will come from this spill. It's the first instance I can think of where the sensationalistic nature of the news in recent decades can do some good, despite the negative economic impact they've already created for the gulf region, some of which was unnecessary at this point. In this case I feel that the sensationalization will be one of the catalysts for real change, and in a good direction. We're already seeing a push for change in the elections with more high caliber people drawn to politics, who wouldn't have dreamed of running for office 10 or 20 years ago, and I believe this call for change coming from regular people goes deeper than I've seen in my lifetime. That tells me that people are willing to sacrifice in the name of change, so they won't accept just talk about change, not this time.

I like to focus on the coming energy revolution, so that's the change seed I like to plant with people I meet, whether it's telling car mechanics to start learning about electrical stuff because a new kind of car is coming, or chatting up the hard core cyclists at the LBS about how my bike is more energy efficient than their expensive pedal bikes, and ribbing them a bit about taking a car to work when the weather is so beautiful while I get everywhere quicker on my bike. Yeah, the smell of change is so strong in the air that I can taste it, and I love it. Now if one of the battery breakthroughs can hurry up and deliver, the change will be a piece of cake. I just got 500W of solar cells for 50 cents a watt, how's that for a good change already here?

John

 

[bigmoose]

John, Good comments! There was a period in my career, for about 3 years that I commuted from Ohio to San Diego CA every other week. First trip of the month I would return through Texas, and the second trip through Florida... In all honesty, that just didn't seem "right." Way too much travel and energy burned for a "normal" job. Perhaps I am a throwback to the front porch, whittlin' and chattin'. IMHO that was extremely wasteful of resources.

On the well, when drilling you control them with a mud column up to the surface, but to kill it the mud column can only go up to the seabed, so the mud must be heavier to counter the reservoir pressure. The major risk is of blowing out the relief well also, and that scenario comes from having to have heavier mud in the line than is needed to control the formation with a column to the surface, and then when you "punch through" into the blow out well, "loosing" that mud into the formation because the pressure of your mud fractured or collapsed the formation itself. They will have to have "a lot" of mud on hand, and the horsepower to pump it fast, and continuously to fill up any "thief zones" or fractures they create in the formation. This well is know for having at least three "thief zones" (sort of like soft spots) that stole the mud that was pumped into the borehole. As for pressures, there are a couple of folks spouting 30,000 psi down hole, but no one I know is supporting that pressure. What is supported is that there may be unexpected gas pockets on the way in which cause the unexpected "kicks" that can end up in another blowout if not reacted to correctly. But this time we are sure that the good people on the rig floor are being listened to. The relief well tool pushers are not being controlled from Houston offices anymore.

 

[tailwind]

ROV at well head navigation display: E 1202514.91 N 10431435.11
ROV at billowing cloud display: E 1204229.41 N 10433840.12

The units are in feet. They were discussing this on twitter a couple of days ago as to whether they were feet or metres.
So if the ROV positions are correct.
1715ft to the east and 2405ft to the north. Approx 2953ft NNE.

Do you know how much drill pipe is left in the hole.
Do you think it would be possible to fish the remaining pipe out. Then reconnect to the end of the string and lower it back down the hole. Then pump mud down the drill pipe directly to the bottom of the hole to do a bottom kill.

Greg

 

[pwbset]

Get very local, know your neighbors, learn to grow your own food, repair your own stuff, ride a bike, make music, get down.

Quoted for truth. And living in a town of 8,000 people for the last 15 years I see it happening more and more each year thankfully. It gives me hope. I'm very thankful I don't live in a big city though. If the supply chain ever breaks down for even a fews days it would be beyond ugly.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=9+meals+from+anarchy&aq=f&aqi=g-c2&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=

Oh.. and %^#$ "big oil"!

 

[spinningmagnets]

BP stock at a 14-year low. If you like risky ventures, this is the time to buy $1,000 worth with money you can afford to lose and will not need for 2 years. With the demand for fossil fuels rising and easy-to-reach resources getting harder to draw from, the stock price is bound to go up. Even if they file bankruptcy and their resources are taken over by another oil company, the stock will rebound.

The military and the army-national guard (the NG has authority over civil disturbances...like riots) will not show up to a conflict driving Priuses. They have first dibs on all fossil fuels, and the public will get whats available from the left-overs scraps. The military recently funded an establishment of a common standard for 50% bio-fuelled diesel/JP-5 (similar to kerosene).

Trucks and trains will have second dibs on fuels to carry food and sundry supplies from farms to the cities.

Military helicopters (or any jet-enginned craft) , tanks, and of course trucks/Hummvees can run off of diesel/kerosene.

 

[Papa]

Oh.. and %^#$ "big oil"!

In light of the Gulf situation, it'd be easy to agree with you, but I don't. If consumers made a concerted and genuine effort to conserve... we likely wouldn't be witnessing 400 HP, fat-tired 4x4's being driven two blocks to 7-11's for a 6-pack and pack of smokes. Call it recklessness, call it ignorance.. or call it just plain stupidity. If we, the consumers, hadn't foolishly squander it, then "big oil" wouldn't be "big", and likely wouldn't be hastily punching holes in sensitive areas.

 

[bigmoose]

The units are in feet. They were discussing this on twitter a couple of days ago as to whether they were feet or metres.
So if the ROV positions are correct.
1715ft to the east and 2405ft to the north. Approx 2953ft NNE.

Thanks Greg, that was one point we didn't know for sure; meters or feet. So your twitter reference definitely says feet. That brings it in 3 times closer and around 3000 ft. That could be a relief well location then.

Do you know how much drill pipe is left in the hole.
Do you think it would be possible to fish the remaining pipe out. Then reconnect to the end of the string and lower it back down the hole. Then pump mud down the drill pipe directly to the bottom of the hole to do a bottom kill.

One of the references that I posted shows what we know from BP how much DP and what size was in the hole when the kick started, it's a pdf marked BP Presentation. The short answer would be that right now one or more drill strings and perhaps a piece of casing is in the BOP and crunched by the rams. No one has the guts to open the BOP rams to get it out exposing the world to the unrestricted fury of the reservoir. We don't even know if the rams will cycle from a ROV hot stab. The MMS made a big deal on revised safety procedures for BOPs to ensure effective ROV hot stabs (ROV hydraulic power to cycle rams) so we think there was a problem there. But MMS and BP ar mum on specifics officially. I don't think we are going into the tip, there is too much missing/disfunctional... the BOP rams, the upper and lower annulars, the disconnect is bent and the riser well is ... gone and laying on the seafloor... not a pretty sight.