End of the world? I think not, but change is a coming...

[Harold in CR]

Seems to me, that, a Company like Haliburton, that KNOWS how to take control of the well, should be dispatched to the site, and BP told to get the hell out of the way, and get the checkbook out. Hire everyone that can-will work, and start cleaning up the mess, elsewhere.

Let them collect and sell the oil, but, get someone in there that CAN stop the escaping oil that gets away.

I have read that several outfits from around the world have offered to do this, but, ALL have been turned down ???

Is there no one with hair on their ass, to take charge ??? POLITICS ain't gonna stop this mess. It has become as bad as the aftermath of a Terrorist act, yet, pussy footin around is still being done. Color me confused :?

 

[evblazer]

People only think it's bad now. Even Obama is using words to prepare the world that the worst is yet to come. This must immediately become a cost no object effort, not only to clean up what's been spilled, and capture what is possible to capture, but to get the thing plugged. I simply don't accept that the only possibility is a maybe 50/50 shot with relief wells.

I agree I just really feel that the greed is going to make an all out effort allowed to start too little too late. If they wanted to shut it down day one and not save it I just think it woulda gotten done at least based on how slimy executive are at my non-oil company.
i just hope this brings about some change in how future operations will be handled if there are any. If life as we know it continues they will drill and drill cheaply and skimp after a little bit of over the top regulation.
Has anyone formed a barracade at the gulf of mexico's entrance to keep this from getting out? I know everyone is concerned about the coastal cities but this was just a 6k a day leak at one time wasn't it? What if it just dumps it's load out completely and coats the east coast would it have enough to take the to gulf stream allthe way across the ocean and just shut down the world?

 

[swbluto]

What if it just dumps it's load out completely and coats the east coast would it have enough to take the to gulf stream allthe way across the ocean and just shut down the world?

That'd be the day...

*1 year later*

Ohhhhh crap.

 

[Papa]

Russia has supposedly nuked a few blowouts with success, but who knows if that's a viable option on this one. I'm thinking no, because of its proximity with other wells.

 

[SilverSurfer]

Russia has supposedly nuked a few blowouts with success, but who knows if that's a viable option on this one. I'm thinking no, because of its proximity with other wells.

Reports say the presure in the well cavity is higher than we have ever dealt with before. Sounds like a zit ready to blow its top! Maybe a nuke is just what we need to create eneough new fisures to truly uncork the beast but good!

 

[John in CR]

Russia has supposedly nuked a few blowouts with success, but who knows if that's a viable option on this one. I'm thinking no, because of its proximity with other wells.

Reports say the presure in the well cavity is higher than we have ever dealt with before. Sounds like a zit ready to blow its top! Maybe a nuke is just what we need to create eneough new fisures to truly uncork the beast but good!

They're really worried about the thing simply uncorking itself at this point. That's why they had or have inclinometers attached to it, because it's leaning already, but the hole was drilled vertical. You know, kind of like how a champagne cork can lean before it pops all the way out.

 

[SilverSurfer]

Russia has supposedly nuked a few blowouts with success, but who knows if that's a viable option on this one. I'm thinking no, because of its proximity with other wells.

Reports say the presure in the well cavity is higher than we have ever dealt with before. Sounds like a zit ready to blow its top! Maybe a nuke is just what we need to create eneough new fisures to truly uncork the beast but good!

They're really worried about the thing simply uncorking itself at this point. That's why they had or have inclinometers attached to it, because it's leaning already, but the hole was drilled vertical. You know, kind of like how a champagne cork can lean before it pops all the way out.

\

Yes, There is a volcanic magma chamber under the oil cavity, the chamber has fisured and magma is pouring through the mantle into the oil cavity. The end will be a tsunami, this will cause the gulf states to have to start over. Feeding the planet with over 25 million less people will be a little easier. And with the Atlantic being unfishable, less mouths to feed is helpfull. Of course, if this blows, it will cause tecktonic ripples world wide. The whole planet will endure a giant earthquake. Hmmmmm. Hopefully Im just a lunitic with an over active sense of global catastrophe. On a bigger note, I fried all the power wires on The Rapture. They were all 12g. Got 8g comming to redo the whole works. Wires aint even here yet and Im thinking I shoulda went with 6g! If I can get this fixed and get a few good rides in before this champange bottle blows, that would be nice. Hate to think my last ride was the one where I fried the wires and had to peddle my bootie home! LOL

 

[spinningmagnets]

I'm certainly not a trained professional engineer, but...

All off-shore oil rigs should have a mandated requirement to have a ribbed collar attached to every 100 feet of pipeline. If the different companies have different diameters of pipe, the ribbed collars should be a big enough diameter that the biggest pipe commonly used can be fitted, and then all well-pipes could clamp on a common repair device. (or possibly two different sizes of collar max).

If 3 oil companies operated in a region, all 3 could share the costs of maintaining one repair rig. Repairs should be available within 24 hours if the globe was divided into a dozen regions, each with a common repair ship on standby.

Perhaps if such collars were attached every 100 feet of length, a breach could be repaired at the highest level possible, and certainly repaired by a robotic crawler that starts off at the bottom and moved up to the collar nearest the breach.

Once a repair device was firmly clamped onto the collars, the parts above it would be cut away, to be blown off by the force of the gusher. Then, perhaps a a large T with its wide-open vertical straight-tube could be swung into place. At this point, with the main force of the gusher still blowing upwards (through the repair-T), piping could easily be attached to the side port (whose valve is shut).

Open the side valve, and once open, some crude oil will begin flowing up through the secondary pipe to the rig. Then you can begin to slowly close the vertical section valve. All handled by some fairly simple robotics.

I'm sure I must be missing something, but thats my "six packs" worth of beer-thoughts...(I've been 400-ft below the surface in some fairly clever machines)

 

[swbluto]

I'm certainly not a trained professional engineer, but...

All off-shore oil rigs should have a mandated requirement to have a ribbed collar attached to every 100 feet of pipeline. If the different companies have different diameters of pipe, the ribbed collars should be a big enough diameter that the biggest pipe commonly used can be fitted, and then all well-pipes could clamp on a common repair device. (or possibly two different sizes of collar max).

If 3 oil companies operated in a region, all 3 could share the costs of maintaining one repair rig. Repairs should be available within 24 hours if the globe was divided into a dozen regions, each with a common repair ship on standby.

Perhaps if such collars were attached every 100 feet of length, a breach could be repaired at the highest level possible, and certainly repaired by a robotic crawler that starts off at the bottom and moved up to the collar nearest the breach.

Once a repair device was firmly clamped onto the collars, the parts above it would be cut away, to be blown off by the force of the gusher. Then, perhaps a a large T with its wide-open vertical straight-tube could be swung into place. At this point, with the main force of the gusher still blowing upwards (through the repair-T), piping could easily be attached to the side port (whose valve is shut).

Open the side valve, and once open, some crude oil will begin flowing up through the secondary pipe to the rig. Then you can begin to slowly close the vertical section valve. All handled by some fairly simple robotics.

I'm sure I must be missing something, but thats my "six packs" worth of beer-thoughts...(I've been 400-ft below the surface in some fairly clever machines)

I'm sure you're missing something (Don't worry, I'm pretty confident anything I would think of would also be missing something. It's not like I believe I'm smarter than all of the BP engineers.), but I'm also pretty sure there's some preventative measures that could be implemented in deep water like this to "quickly" turn off or remedy a disaster should one occur. Why one wouldn't take said preventative measures I'm sure has to do with "costs", but given the obvious costs of a blowout, I'm thinking it's pretty inevitable that more preventative measures will be mandated. People decry "regulation" because it increases cost, but those kinds of people seem to not understand the costs of the disasters they prevent.

 

[julesa]

People decry "regulation" because it increases cost, but those kinds of people seem to not understand the costs of the disasters they prevent.

B-b-b-but John Galt!

 

[bigmoose]

Sorry haven't check in for a few days. Things not good as the news said. Government estimate now publicly up to 30,000 to 60,000 barrels/day (42 gallon barrel) where most of us thought it was. Perhaps a little high at 60,000. But closer than the original 5,000.

Nothing is going to stop it but the relief wells. Most of the stuff I was alluding to came out in June 14 testimony and is on the government web site http://energycommerce.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1985:energy-a-commerce-committee-investigates-deepwater-horizon-rig-oil-spill&catid=122:media-advisories&Itemid=55 read all the June 14th material, and you will be an expert!

The folks are starting to be dumbfounded by the flow out of an 80 foot pay zone. The depth of the oil formation is only the length of two short US semi trailers... You want to watch for any public discussion of the amount of sand coming out. Not rumors of sand, but how much. The more sand discharged, the larger the worm holes in the formation, and the more mud that must be pumped along with secret sauce polymer goo to plug it up. Somewhere we will not have the pump capacity to do it. Where is getting to be pure conjecture. This well is now in uncharted territory.

BP financials are taking a huge hit with CDO swaps putting, I think a 6.5% kicker on their bonds above treasury bond rates of like 2.2%.. so BP is currently committing financial suicide. Something will give soon in that area.

Bad week, not much positive developing. Leak getting bigger, drill ship hit by lightning with small fire, bunch of politicians pushing and shoving... I am concerned for the health of all the folks on boats/drill ships by the blowout. That crude has a lot of benzene in it and some sulfur compounds in near toxic or slightly over toxic levels. I pray to God that all those crew are not effected like the rescue workers in New York after 9/11.

 

[Papa]

A bitter pill to swallow. None-the-less, your input is greatly appreciated, Bigmoose. Rumors indicating pressures of 10k at the BOP, and temps approaching 100c. Does this seem correct?

 

[John in CR]

I still don't buy the relief well bottom kill as the only way, especially since the typical method is looking more and more like it won't work not in the typical fashion. All gulf rigs are down now anyway. Get them all over there drilling if only to make new wells to extract the oil normally before it leaks into the gulf, or surround the bad well with a number of other wells in the same vicinity to relieve the pressure from the bad one making it easier to kill.

Then there's also addressing this thing from the top. Lay a bunch of drill pipe on the sea floor in the vicinity of the well and start pumping concrete down there before the bottom starts venting. Make it acres big if necessary and build it up 10 or 20 ft thick, whatever is deemed necessary to create a foundation for a properly designed top hat that will work, and also hold the top of the deteriorating well together at the sea floor. More needs to be happening than waiting on 2 hope-and-a-prayer relief wells, and trying to suck whatever oil they can from every orifice possible of the BOP that will just break off of the end of that eroding pipe anyway in the foreseeable future.

BP already has to pay everyone who's not working, so they might as well put the entire gulf O&G workforce to work on this one thing till it's done.

And why they don't already have retired General Honore already kicking ass and taking names on the cleanup is beyond me. Just like with Katrina the dirty work didn't get started till he was brought in, and the guy is ready and waiting for the call.

I've gone from horrified to pissed off, and I'm all the way in Costa Rica. I can only imagine if I was at home smelling oil fumes blowing in off of the gulf.

 

[bigmoose]

A bitter pill to swallow. None-the-less, your input is greatly appreciated, Bigmoose. Rumors indicating pressures of 10k at the BOP, and temps approaching 100c. Does this seem correct?

Bottom hole pressure and temperature in the formation are 210 deg F and 13,800 psi when shut in. Now there are restrictions up the string from the pay zone. So with conventional fluid dynamics, the more you allow unrestricted flow (i.e. less restriction in the BOP), the lower the pressure at the BOP.

A lot of us think they ruptured a casing string, and are flowing to limit pressure in that string fracture. A flow thru the casing into the seabed will eventually erode the structural integrity of the well casings that hold it in the seabed. I personally have not seen credible video of flow up from the seafloor or around the conductor casing at the well. That would be the underground blowout with sea floor rupture and "cratering" of the well head... very bad. John's solution of drill baby drill and drain the reservoir down is the only next step, IF the relief wells fail. I am not convinced of that yet, I am still of the mind the relief wells will be successful.

Some are estimating the reservoir upper limit as 2.5 BILLION barrels, I don't believe it is that large. (Hayward in testimony Thurs @ 4:30pm just said 50 Million barrels in the reservoir, congressman said 500 Million barrels.) BP's own worst case if they blow a relief well is over 240,000 barrels/day leakage... till the reservoir runs out. That folks, is a real scarry thought...

I am hoping and praying this well can be successfully killed. If and that is a big IF there is cratering and complete blowout of this well head, you and I are going to have our lives substantially changed by a world wide change in energy policy caused by a cessation of deep water drilling.

 

[John in CR]

BigMoose,

The risk is so great and the odds are unknown, that we simply must already be working on contingent solutions, not just planning them. Every available rig needs to be drilling into that reservoir right now to 1. Relieve pressure at the broken well to increase the chances of bottom kill success, and reduce the leak rate, and 2. Extract crude in the normal manner that would otherwise leak into the gulf in the worst case scenario. This even results in a means to pay for the damages, and mitigates some of the economic devastation of the gulf O&G industry to sit idle. BP isn't realistically going to be able to pay for this, so mitigate damages and create a source of revenue to pay for them.

I don't see any risk in this approach, it's all upside. Sure it might increase the possibility of a subsurface collapse, but that risk is there anyway, the chances have gotta be remote. Wouldn't that just a downward shift anyway, so not an event to create a tsunami, like shoving the seafloor up 10m on one side of a 1000km long crack like in 2004.

To me it borders on insane that an entire industry is currently put out of work, while leaked oil is just beginning to reach shore, and the whole world is just waiting to see if a low to moderate chance of success solution is going to work, which we won't find out for months.

The government and the industry need to start acting like people do in this kind of situation, and change modes to "whatever it takes". A year and a half ago they handed almost a trillion dollars to essentially the richest entities in the world when they said "Oops, we screwed up but we're too big to fail", for what was a problem on paper. This problem in the GOM is real as are the staggering risks.

 

[hydro-one]

BEGIN PRAY NOW

 

[John in CR]

BEGIN PRAY NOW

I talked to Him the other day about this specific issue, to which he responded "You did it, you fix it.". He promptly demonstrated this message by sending down a bolt of lightning that started a fire on the pumping ship. Prayers are a nice gesture of good will, but we're on our own on this one guys.

John

 

[Papa]

John, I tend to agree with you that it's a 'all hands on deck' scenario, but what do I know?... I would think (or hope) that 'they' have some of the best, independent minds involved with this, so the best I can offer is to maintain distance and not clog-up lines. FWIW, the following link discusses the multiple drilling theory:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6573

 

[bigmoose]

BEGIN PRAY NOW

I talked to Him the other day about this specific issue, to which he responded "You did it, you fix it.". He promptly demonstrated this message by sending down a bolt of lightning that started a fire on the pumping ship. Prayers are a nice gesture of good will, but we're on our own on this one guys.
John

Yep, I have to admit, I'm still sorting out the message that may have been sent with that one! (The lightning bolt that started a fire.)

I saw a probability analysis for the probability of intercepting the well by a certain day, given n number of intercept wells. It's interesting that two intercept wells is not a bad answer statistically based on a monte carlo simulation. That also didn't take into account the cluttered real estate within a mile of ground zero. There's an awful lot of hardware and hydrocarbons in close proximity these days...

That said, if a proper statistical analysis of drilling pumper wells is done, I am not sure the time to start is now because of the simple fact that drill more in a rush, increase risk of "accident"... Also when I talked to an oilfield guy, he said it may take 3 or 4 years to install the sub sea piping to take the oil from extraction wells to draw down the reservoir.

This entire thing reeks... You get an idea, and then talk to an experienced well/subsea/process guy and you find out they already thought of it (they taint' stupid) and why it won't work.

The best solution was prevention. ... and that didn't happen.

I'm going to go back to praying... We sure don't need a bit stuck in a relief well. Keep in mind they did that with the original well AND got a well logging tool stuck... Now it's coming out that they had "well control issues" (nice words for we're getting conditions that could be a blowout if we can't control it) in March I believe. ExxonMobil has said that they have closed in wells that they deemed "too dangerous" to go farther because of gas and simply walked away from them and the lease. This is one, we all wish BP would have walked away from in March.

 

[John in CR]

Bigmoose,

I'll sell you on an everything humanly possible approach yet, but first I have to get you agree that it's not being done yet, from other man and equipment power sitting idle to oil clean up approaches that aren't even being tried. The risk is just too great not to do everything possible.

If there's an 80ft pay zone and it is mostly rock not an underground lake of oil, calculate from how far away that oil must be flowing to get to that hole. Surround that hole with other holes in an effort to starve the one that's leaking. I don't know if that's best done by pumping something in to try to clog the formation (or add a lot weight to the fluid flowing toward the leak), or by pumping oil out of the new hole, or an alternating combination of both for these new holes. The single purpose is to reduce the pressure at or in the hole to help ensure the success of the 2 relief wells already in the works, and the side benefit would be to reduce the leak to a level where they actually can capture the lions share of what comes out. If that can't work or poses a significant new risk I'm not considering, please point me in a new direction.

There are about 30 deep water drilling rigs idle in the gulf, so there's plenty of equipment and crew ready and willing to go. That has to be more than enough to do the job.

I do realize things are crowded in the immediate vicinity, but directional drilling allows significant distances for safety out there. Miles of surface separation is easy for a depth nearly 3 miles. Sure the finalization of production platforms might take years, but I'd anticipate that most of the holes would get plugged after this well is killed so something less permanent can be readied even before they get the holes finished. Instead of idle have everyone gladly working overtime to get things done.

I'm getting this sneaking suspicion that the attitude of those in power outside of the O&G industry is something along the lines of "This is the best thing that could happen to push us toward fossil fuel alternatives, so let's let this puppy die while we have the chance." If it wasn't for the human and environmental costs to come, I'd tend to agree and say let's go ahead and pass this kidney stone now, but those costs and the economic ones that will follow are simply too great.

John

ps- What about the idea of a concrete mat laid on the sea floor with 100-200m radius and 5-10m thick to support that wellhead, or at least start laying a sufficiently heavy concrete footing around the well, so if/when the BOP snaps off that a properly designed and sufficiently large tophat can cover the area and have a way to anchor it down instead of float away from a bit of slushy buildup?

 

[spinningmagnets]

Just heard the Texas oyster industry is shot until further notice. The Louisiana shrimping industry was just starting to get back on its feet, and its also now shot.

The coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the gulf side of Florida all derive signifiicant income from tourism. Many of the businesses that survived in those places from tourism are going under, and those states will take a big hit in their annual budgets from reduced tax income from tourism business.

Is BP positioning itself to declare bankruptcy? Are the rats trying on life-vests to bail out of the sinking ship?

 

[Papa]

Bigmoose,

I landed on another discussion a while back that raised a serious concern about the pump pressures needed to force heavy mud at those depths - and still maintain control of the existing relief well during the plugging process. Is a 30k horsepower pump motor gonna be enough?

 

[bigmoose]

John, I agree "not everything possible" is being done. I just listened to Tony Hayward being grilled by the US congress, and it wasn't pretty. He was evasive. He got a 14 page memo days before that identified the questions, and didn't do his homework. Now let's see if congress bites or barks. It was clear, just as you said, that there was not an urgency to action by BP with the "little people" (BP quote).

With respect to the reservoir, only BP has the well logs and knows the formation. It is my understanding of the geology in the area that the reservoirs could be consolidated as little as wet beach sand. Again, only BP knows, and they are not talking much.

As for pump horsepower here is an online calculator I found http://irrigation.wsu.edu/Secondary_Pages/Irr_Calculators/General/G_ReqWaterPumpHP.php Not mud HP considering drag in the pipes and such, but it will give an idea. Assume they pump perhaps 150 to 300 gallons/minute and the pressure will not have to be much because of hydrostatic pressure head of the heavy mud from sea level to the bottom. PSI = 0.052 * feet of column * weight of mud in lb/gal Very different pump requirements from the top kill where they had to get perhaps 5,000 to 8,000 psi on the pumps... again no one knows for sure since BP hasn't let out top kill parameters. By going in at the bottom you get the pressure for "free" from the mud weight. That is what lets you kill the well statically with no shut in or pump pressure from the top. Just ol' gravity does the job. (That assumes the mud is not diluted and blown up and out the well.)

 

[John in CR]

I've seen gulf core samples next to a Saudi sample. That Saudi was close to the equivalent of a rock version of baby swiss cheese, say well over 90% rock by volume, and the gulf sample was like a piece of sandstone. My point is that flow has to be coming from a long distance even if the formation is as free flowing as in a Saudi field. Drill a number of new holes aiming for a reasonable distance from the well, all around it. Feeding the leaking well heavy mud could reduce pressure at the wellhead, or taking oil out of the new holes should reduce the bottom hole pressure. I have the physics right don't I?

I just get this feeling BP is still in the "trying to save money" mentality that got them into this mess in the first place. How can BP not understand that even that perception will surely sink their company? At least for the next couple of months they need to give the impression that they are throwing real money at the problem from all directions, being absolutely open, and asking for help. Instead they're listening to people hired to help advise how to mitigate legal losses, who in this case have it wrong, way wrong. If rumors are true about private security co's hired to stop people from taking pictures and video, hiding animal casualties, prevent access, etc., that is a huge blunder that will absolutely backfire.

Penny pinchers + government involvement = very bad news

 

[Papa]

A lot of us think they ruptured a casing string, and are flowing to limit pressure in that string fracture. A flow thru the casing into the seabed will eventually erode the structural integrity of the well casings that hold it in the seabed. I personally have not seen credible video of flow up from the seafloor or around the conductor casing at the well. That would be the underground blowout with sea floor rupture and "cratering" of the well head... very bad.

Have you seen this one Bigmoose? This individual is touting cracks in the sea bed via the ROV videos. The vid is poor and IMHO, isn't at all conclusive, so I'm a bit dubious. However, why is the ROV monitoring this area with such interest? Dated 06-16-2010 06:40PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZunCAXkDf-4&feature=player_embedded