Is an automobile-based society sustainable ?

morph999

100 kW
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Do you guys ever regret the amount of money you sink into your cars? I'm on a small income now and I can't afford to run my car anymore. It just sits in my backyard now. It cost me $1000 to fix last time. That's about how much the car costs. I bet the parts only cost about $200 so I was paying $800 in labor. We've only been an automobile-based society for about 80 years. Started in the 1930s. Do you think this way will last? It kind of makes me mad how everything is so spread out here in the USA. I went to Japan and you could just walk down the street to get groceries. Walking in the streets over there is considered normal. Over here, people would literally try to run you over for doing that.
 
I agree in so many ways;

Its not the automobile thats bad, its the addiction to it and the oversized vehicles. Its the Garage door as the main entrance to the house. Its the massive subsidies to anything auto, to the demise of smarter modes of xport.

Its the auto that travels to big super stores and brings home weeks of processed food, rather than walking to the local market for fresh food several times a week.

The auto that encourges living 40 miles from where you work, that enables children to play on teams 30 miles from home, rather than the local neighborhood team that could use a star local.

I could go on, but we can change this. we ride, we walk, we talk and we vote. I now frequently bump into people grocery shopping by bike. See neighborhood people walking home with bags of purchases.

We can change this.

(I who used to drive 1.4 mile to the spa r/t to spend 45 minutes on the treadmill)

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/102/story/836669.html

Electric bikes moving China
Production of electric two-wheelers has gone from 200,000 eight years ago to 22 million last year
By ELAINE KURTENBACH - Associated Press


SHANGHAI — It’s a simple pleasure, but Xu Beilu savors it daily: gliding past snarled traffic on her motorized bicycle, relaxed and sweat-free alongside the pedal-pushing masses.

China, the world’s bicycle kingdom — one for every three inhabitants — is going electric.

Workers weary of crammed public transport or pedaling long distances to jobs are upgrading to battery-powered bikes and scooters. Even some who can afford cars are ditching them for electric two-wheelers to avoid traffic jams and expensive gasoline.


In this photo taken on Friday, July 3, 2009, workers assemble electric scooters at the Hanma Electric Bicycle Co. Ltd in Tianjin, China. Industry estimates put the number of electric bikes and scooters on the roads at more than 65 million. It's a trend catching on elsewhere, from remote Australian towns to chaotic New Delhi streets. (AP Photo/Greg Baker)

In China, electric bikes sell for 1,700 yuan to 3,000 yuan ($250 to $450). They require no helmet, plates or driver’s license, and they aren’t affected by restrictions many cities impose on fuel-burning two-wheelers.

The bicycle was a vivid symbol of China in more doctrinaire communist times, when virtually no one owned a car. Even now, nearly two decades after the country began its great leap into capitalism, it still has 430 million bicycles by government count, outnumbering electric bikes and scooters 7-1.
 
I was told that if counting the hours we have to work to pay for the car, gas and road infrastructure etc, and adding those to the hours we spend driving, the actual speed one travels in a car with is hardly more than walking. Anyone has a reference with substance for this statement, or is it an urban legend?
 
jag said:
I was told that if counting the hours we have to work to pay for the car, gas and road infrastructure etc, and adding those to the hours we spend driving, the actual speed one travels in a car with is hardly more than walking. Anyone has a reference with substance for this statement, or is it an urban legend?

Very interesting thought! I know the average cost for an automobile is somewhere around $5000-6000/year with gas, insurance, deflation, maintenance, fees and registration, deductibles you have to pay for accidents, etc. I know federal subsidization for highways is about $1000 per driver per year (I calculated it once), and I'd guess at least $200 per driver at the local level, so I'll consider an average minimum of $6500 / year.

If you consider a wage of $15/hour, that's at least 433 hours required just to pay for an automobile (including subsidies which you pay through taxes anyways). If you make more, that's going to be less. Consider the average person travels 12,000 miles per year and I guesstimate 450 hours per year, that comes to an average working+travel time of 883 hours which is an average speed of 14 mph. So it sounds more on par with "the average speed of a bicycle". If you consider the longterm health costs of a sedentary car culture, I'd imagine the speed might lower noticeably.

Anyways, for the minimum wage worker, getting a car because you need it for "work" is a really sorry trade-off. Back in the day, I spent about half of my working hours just to pay for the car that I used to get to the place where I put in the working hours. I admit I didn't nearly enjoy those working hours enough to justify the benefit I gained from a car, so it had to go.
 
I like to think in cost per mile. My one ton pickup costs a full dollar to drive one mile. My subaru, after some recent shenanigans is getting up near 50 cents a mile. My wifes focus, bought cheap with a salvage titile is around 25 cents a mile. So when I drive the truck to work, 30 miles, and maybe another 10 doing whatever made me need to drive it costs me about 40 bucks. Not too good, since I may be only making about 60 bucks that day. The truck goes to work at most, once a month. Including all costs, most cars priced under $20,000 end up costing about 50 cents a mile, the cheaper ones, maybe 40 cents.

Take 16,000 for the cost, 20K purchase, minus trade in later of 4k. Add 10,000 for ten years insurance, maybe less if you buy cheaper insurance when the car is older. 4,300 gallons of gas at three bucks, 30 mpg, $12,900. Cost of the car loan, Maybe 4-6 thou? Figure 130,000 miles before you trade it in ten years later. That gives you 25 cents a mile, assuming you spent nothing at the mechanics shop, ever. Nowdays, cars are near impossble to work on yourself, and with shop rates at $100 an hour, a few good ones and the cost per mile skyrockets. My wifes focus started to have the radiator hoses go bad. Ten hoses under the hood, that could only be found at the ford dealer. $800 for radiator hoses, and only $200 of that was shop time. That's a thing that I have allways thought of as $100 and an hour of my time for any car or truck. The repairs are definitely becoming the hidden cost of driving that is hard to predict, and can be as much as the gas over a cars lifetime. And of course, in some states, a thou a year for insurance and registration is way low. I've had jobs where we drove 150 miles a day to work, and pretty soon we had camper villages on the construction sites. I couldn't even go a full week without changing the oil when I was driving the VW bug daily.

But on the other hand, trying to walk that 5 miles( from the supplier to work) with one ton of sand, cement, or landscape rock on the truck is pretty hard. Most weeks I'll have to drive the subaru to work just to carry some lumber, fertilizer, etc one day, maybe two. The other days I take the ebike, at a cost of 10 cents a mile. Three bucks a day is more like it for sure. Living closer to work would be nice, but it would double what we paid for the house. So the risk and longer time to pay off of a higher mortgage is not worth it. We can bus to work if we want to, but the travel time to get there and back is 3 hours a day. The ebike does it in one hour and 45 minuites.

Interestingly the roketta scooter may turn out about 50 cents a mile. It's broken down now too, and getting parts is gonna be fun, if not impossible. A better quality motorcycle might have been a better idea than the chinese scooter bought used, or more accurately, bought used up. If fixable, another 1000 miles out of it would bring the cost per mile down a lot. Edit, I fixed the scooter after all, at no cost too. Yay, last years riding was 47 cents a mile, but this years should be about 16 cents a mile.

The cheapest vehicle I ever owned was a honda CB 125. I drove it 10,000 miles over three years, and paid a total cost of about $250. No insurance in those days, and sold it for exactly what I paid for it. 2.5 cents a mile. :mrgreen: Todays equivilant would be about 7 cents?
 
Yeah, but on the flip side.

Your car or truck makes you tons of money if you use it that way.

What better way to get to the beach or the mountains... twenty miles away with your family for the day.

Every try to move furniture with your bike. Well, I actually did on my moped.

When you were/are dating, every try to impress, take out on a date a girl with a bicycle.

Thirty 60# bags of concrete are no problem with my truck.

The free truck full of gravel free. The free truck full of compost. No freebies without some way of getting them.

Every try to go someplace at a moments notice, like I did today, to the Greek Festival forty miles round trip.

Wanna go surfin, not going to happen without a car. Well I guess you could spend the most of the day riding the bus.

Wanna go bike riding at some far off place, not going to happen without a car. Well I guess you could take some sort of public transportation, but that will not get you to where you want to really go.

Wanna go riding out in the sand dunes in my street legal buggy.

Wanna go yard sailing, don't plan on bringing much back on a bike.

I would hate to live like people used to, no easy way to see other then what is on the farm.

Deron.
 
I agree Deron, when unemployed over the years, having the tools got me rehired first, along with busting ass when hired. One of the tools has often been the truck, or whatever. Back when we were waiting for Reganomics to tricke down, I spent 3 winters cutting firewood instead of whining that no houses were being built. I've also scored quite a few freebies just by being able to move them. Amazing what is in the trash pile sometimes.

I may whine about the truck costing so much on the two days a month I have to bring it to work, but the other 20 workdays I make a lot of money per hour to make up for it. Getting stuff delivered can be done, but then you get to put heavy stuff in a wheelbarrow and carry it as much as 1/4 mile across the condo complex. When we are going to need really big quantities, we do get a few tons delivered to the spot where we need it.

But the key thing is I never use more vehicle than I need. So the truck goes to work, or anywhere very seldom, and I only drive a car if it's raining or what I need to carry is more than 3 feet long. Still gets expensive to keep the vehicles running, but even the ebike is a tool I make some money with.

What's not sustainable is the way lots of people use a vehicle. I don't drive my one ton double cab pickup around town all week because I have a boat on the weekend, but many do.
 
"But the key thing is I never use more vehicle than I need."
Dogman 2009

Hopefully an idea that catches on, rather than "more is better, most is best".

Belongs in quotable quotes.

dick
 
Yes....but our vehicle future will look much different.

Instead of a two-income family owning 3 cars, they will live close to the major job, and may own one car/truck that they rarely use. When fuels get very expensive (just as in Europe and Asia) more consumers will embrace other options. If families move closer to the major family job, at least one adult may use an electric bike/scooter. Sometimes it rains, even in southern California, but using an E-bike 90% of the time is still an option.

On a macro scale, food will still be grown on farms (I just moved to Kansas), and most people will still live in urban centers. In spite of the expensive infrastructure for rail, the trains can run reliably in snow-bound winters. When weather allows, trucks are still the best way to move food and stuff around the cities to retail centers, Also raw materials to factory and finished products to distribution centers.

There will be an increasing use of bio-diesel in our future. Recently, at $4/gallon, many families traded in their V8 for a 4-cyl. At $5/gal I believe many will reluctantly make the annoying change to move closer to their job. The VW diesel Golf and Ford Festiva both get over 50-MPG . If their sales really take off, you will see more cars like this. When fuel was over $4, hybrid sales were back-ordered due to sudden popularity...this will happen again.

A car is more than transportation, its a status symbol. People will want one even if they rarely drive it due to new road tolls and high fuel costs.
 
spinningmagnets said:
A car is more than transportation, its a status symbol. People will want one even if they rarely drive it due to new road tolls and high fuel costs.

In Europe a nice car is for sure a status symbol also, but there are more choices than here. You can display by dressing up real nice, then still take the metro or bus and you won't be looked down on upon arriving by public transportation.
 
Look at it this way.

What if your dollar per mile cost goes down? When my X was ready for a new car, I picked it for her this time, instead of letting her use her emotions to buy one (you know that is why women should be not allowed to vote). Went from a gas hog to a sipper and on top of that a very reliable car. She probably cut her car expenses by half or more.

If a lot of people out there are following suit, then they are also cutting their travel expenses "big time". If people were able to justify using a gas guzzling SUV, then there will be no problem using a automobile that costs them half as much to run.

Deron.
 
i vote for rationing, let people make up their own mind what they drive. let the people who use alternative transport sell their ration cards in a free market managed by google through your cell phone or person app valet.

but i am like dogman and deron, i rarely use my truck, but the last load was 3600lbs of crushed rock for my driveway. using my truck i could back right to the spot and spread it versus having it delivered by dump truck and shoveling into wheelbaarrows, which is the point dogman was making too.

what pisses me off about gasoline and oil is that we are sucking it all dry in an instant of history and the stuff is so goddaamn useful as a dense and easily transportable energy source but even more valuable as the plastics which make everything light and strong and durable. we can drive on compressed natural gas and turn off the gas powered turbine generators.

it's actually easier to do the right thing and stop the waste, immediately. rationing would do that. mexico has dropped in production by 35% in the last year. the shit is gonna hit the fan here sooner than most can imagine. EV is ahead of that gamechanger, and bikes are the most convenient form. so this is the right space to be in.
 
We'd be rationed if we taxed gasoline the way europe does. Everything here in the west is spread out since both land and gasoline were once cheap. It was nice while it lasted.

More compact places can use public transportation much easier. Here in sprawlville, the bus comes to a place 2 miles from my house once an hour beginning 1 hour after my work starts at 6:00 am. After I start my journey an hour late, I get a 30 minuite ride to the central transfer, a 30 minuite wait there, and then a thirty minuite ride to a place a mile from my work. Not so convenient, but I do sometimes ride it home if something on the ebike is not working, like the charger plug left me low battery or something. It's the best the city can do with the low density population to send a bus once an hour, which makes actually using the bus incredibly inconvenient. So it's used only by the poorest in town, the unemployed, the homeless, the retired on tiny pensions. No working people have time to ride the bus there.
 
i agree actually. the most efficient social mechanism is to compensate for the multiple locations needing service, for a centralized transit system, to one that is decentralized, and runs as a google based app on you cellphone or personal electronic monitor.

anyway it would be a rideshare or carpooling structure, and could work fairly well if we could integrate the locations and coordinate the carpooling more effectively, using the google map integrator with the gps inputs, and the predicted path to minimize diversions. i think that is actually gonna happen when the gas runs out. people driving a car would be desperate to find someone to give a lift to so they could split the gas ration.

the old man up the road in loveland told me about how the people during the war in his munitions plant in denver would pool their ration cards so they could get enuff gas for their carpool. we could do it again, people don't see it that critical yet.
 
dnmun said:
i vote for rationing, let people make up their own mind what they drive. let the people who use alternative transport sell their ration cards in a free market managed by google through your cell phone or person app valet.
:
what pisses me off about gasoline and oil is that we are sucking it all dry in an instant of history and the stuff is so goddaamn useful as a dense and easily transportable energy source but even more valuable as the plastics which make everything light and strong and durable.

I'll vote for dnmun! How come no politicians dare say things like this? Serious periodicals such as Newsweek, Economist, etc portray the facts yet nobody cares.
 
dogman said:
We'd be rationed if we taxed gasoline the way europe does.
I think redirecting tax is one solution whether gas taxes, CO2 or just more tax in general on wasteful use of natural resources, and less tax on necessities.

However, tax is not the only solution, and a high gas tax hits the poor and middle income, while the affluent can ignore it.
Rationing like dnmun suggests, would create a marketplace and the poor could sell the their credit. This could work if planned carefully (but can of course also end up bureacratic and corrupt).

Another line of thought, often used for congestion reduction, is to make people leave the car at home one day a week. (or even once a month to start with). This will get people used to public transport, bikes or walking and hopefully they will transfer some of that behavious also on their driving days.

Mexico City and Sao Paulo has a system where your no-drive days depends on your car registraton (e.g. last letter). A drawback is that the rich will just buy extra cars. Would be better to somehow attach it to the person.
 
i got one better,

how about if you wanna drive somewhere and you go to the google carpooling manager and say , i'm going there and there and there and this is when i am going, and i have space for up to 4 people.

then the google automatic arbitration query comes up, asking will you pick up carpool friend anna and take her 13 miles for .4 gallon? you can enter yes or no or reply with a counteroffer to the google bot, and it would immediately integrate and come back with a counteroffer, until there was either a resolution, like at an auction or the transaction was set on the back burner, until a high priority carpooling need came up, so they came back with a counter offer again for both of the passengers, trade for this much ration, etc, then you can still decide to accept or decline. it maintains personal freedom and a universal access to the use of the energy ration.

that's why letting google do it instead of the guvment is that it would get done, effectively, because that's where they know everybody already. so the authentication of the users and the distances could be established, you would have a security grade too, from personal references too, for carpoolers to evaluate.

it could be done and it would put a lot of people to work. and then we could put people to work building the compressed natural gas distribution spots all over the country, spend $12 billion on it and build out the electric train network to high speed links cross country. the reason planes are cheap is because they don't pay the taxes everybody else does. and i agree, people living in rural and isolated areas will pay the price, but reality is that the huge saudi field ghawer that has made this free energy possible is near the end and canterell in mexico has dropped like a rock. it took financial collapse equivalent to the great depresssion to knock the price of oil down, but natural gas is 10 times cheaper fuel too.
 
I would rather live someplace nice, and bike and walk where I need to go to do things that are nice to do.

Driving all over the place makes one realize how precious the nice places are.

So many nice places get wrecked because a million people want to drive through them, requiring 6 lanes of superhighway to accommodate the masses.

:cry:
 
Market prices are the most efficient form of rationing. I have nothing against "rich" people or anybody that wants to pay more for something than I do. I just figure they value it more than I.

We should, however, make sure that the government isn't subsidizing gasoline or any comodity for that matter. The market (unless government interference distorts it) will supply substitute sources of hydrocarbons as soon as the economics allow it. We need not fear drastic and disturbing rates of change in our lifestyles.

I think the internet and forums like this one are the way to sustainable behavior. When its demonstrated how cost effective it is to use alternatives to autos, the word starts to get around. Its all about information and the pioneers are here.
 
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