Longterm lithium prices in $/Wh

[swbluto]

So, any informed guesses on the long term pricing of various lithium chemistries and types? We've seen how high power lithium polymer started out pretty pricy but has decreased significantly in the near past, however, it's unlikely going to diminish to nothing: instead, it will likely converge to the cost of manufacture.

So, any ideas on what that is? According to http://pubs.its.ucdavis.edu/publication_detail.php?id=1307, it appears that it can near $250-400/kWh rather than the $500-900 that it is currently, given large enough production volumes. What would you do differently if lithium was actually at those kind of prices? Straight to an electric car?

 

[morph999]

It's about $6000 in batteries to get 80 mile range out of a very light weight car. If that got down to $2500, boy, that would be awesome. It's about 2 AH for every 1 mile for a lightweight car.

 

[swbluto]

It's about 2 AH for every 1 mile for a lightweight car.

2 AH at what voltage? 1000? Oh dear.

 

[liveforphysics]

It's about $6000 in batteries to get 80 mile range out of a very light weight car. If that got down to $2500, boy, that would be awesome. It's about 2 AH for every 1 mile for a lightweight car.

Ah/mile... It's sad morph. You've been a member here for a long time, but not long enough to have gained the most basic energy concepts...
I don't think I've ever met someone on a forum quite as special.

 

[AussieJester]

I don't think I've ever met someone on a forum quite as special.

very "diplomatically" said there Luke...

KiM

 

[morph999]

It's about $6000 in batteries to get 80 mile range out of a very light weight car. If that got down to $2500, boy, that would be awesome. It's about 2 AH for every 1 mile for a lightweight car.

Ah/mile... It's sad morph. You've been a member here for a long time, but not long enough to have gained the most basic energy concepts...
I don't think I've ever met someone on a forum quite as special.

Who told you that? I've researched electric cars and from my research, I've found that for a car that weighs about 1500lbs, it's about 2AH per 1 mile.

I've been on endless-sphere forum for a year, and I think you are the biggest idiot that I've encountered so far. Which thread are you going to follow me to next, stalker. Liveforphysics, stalker is my new nickname for you.

 

[morph999]

It's about $6000 in batteries to get 80 mile range out of a very light weight car. If that got down to $2500, boy, that would be awesome. It's about 2 AH for every 1 mile for a lightweight car.

Ah/mile... It's sad morph. You've been a member here for a long time, but not long enough to have gained the most basic energy concepts...
I don't think I've ever met someone on a forum quite as special.

Liveforphysics,
why don't you go in the backyard and cut up some more batteries and play with some plato and legos. Let the big boys discuss electrical vehicles.

 

[olaf-lampe]

@morph,
if you like it or not, LFP is right ( also swbluto mentioned that) you can't compare Ah/mile but only Wh/mile
No offense, you probably ment the same. Some guys here mismatch A and Ah all the time...

Back to topic: I would invest the money in a home solar system or the like to make my own juice 8)
Olaf

 

[Toorbough ULL-Zeveigh]

of course u realize that extreme long term, if this electrically car thingy really catches on, it all ends with a Li cartel that manipulates the price to maximize profit.
i.e. expect to pay no less for the same Ah/mi that guzzle-lean will carry u down the road.
'meet the new boss... same as the old boss.'

i always thought LFP as spatial.

 

[liveforphysics]

i always thought LFP as spatial.

Thank you my friend.

 

[Lock]

Yes. More spatial, less spat-ial
:wink:
lL0Kc

 

[swbluto]

it all ends with a Li cartel that manipulates the price to maximize profit.
i.e. expect to pay no less for the same Ah/mi that guzzle-lean will carry u down the road.
'meet the new boss... same as the old boss.

Noooooooo!!!!! Don't say it's sooooo!

I'm not worried. If a variety of functionally comparable competing technologies with different relatively abundant material requirements develop, then a cartel isn't likely to stranglehold the world. i.e., think super-capacitor vs. lithium. Or whatever else that strange future has in store.

However, if lithium ends up being the only competitor, that could be sad.

 

[Jeremy Harris]

Morph,

Here's a couple of examples to make the point about energy needed per unit distance.

Let's say I have a vehicle that has a 96V battery pack and that it uses 2 Ah of capacity from that pack in order to travel 1 mile. It will have used 192 Wh to travel that distance (96V x 2Ah = 192Wh). Note that I'm using volts (V), amp hours (Ah) and watt hours (Wh) here, not amps and watts.

Now, let's say that I change the battery voltage to 48V. From the above data we know the vehicle still needs 192 Wh to travel a mile, so now, with the lower voltage battery pack it will need 4 Ah of capacity to cover that distance.

Finally, let's say I decide to go for a 192V battery pack. Now I'd find that the vehicle only needs 1 Ah of battery capacity to cover a mile.

Does this make sense to you?

Using Wh, rather than Ah, is essential when trying to compare performance of battery packs, or vehicles, as otherwise you're comparing apples and oranges (unless you're always comparing at the same system voltage).

Jeremy

 

[michaelplogue]

Agreed. As an example: Originally, I was running my Diggler scooter with 36V packs, and I got approximately 1 AH per mile. When I upgraded it to 72V, I was getting approximately .6 AH/mile. However, my Wh/mile stayed basically the same - although it was slightly higher with the 72V system as I normally push it to it's max speed. If I kept it to the same max speed as the 36V setup, the Wh/mile would be pretty much the same.

So you really do need to utilize Wh/mile instead of AH/mile - that's pretty basic EV stuff there.

 

[michaelplogue]

of course u realize that extreme long term, if this electrically car thingy really catches on, it all ends with a Li cartel that manipulates the price to maximize profit.

And watch.... The 'cartel' leader will end up being the "friend of drug traffickers" - Evo Morales - president of the country (Bolivia) that holds 50% of the worlds lithium reserves.

.

 

[paultrafalgar]

The price that Lithium batteries end up depends entirely on whether EESTOR is a hoax or not. If they start churning out product at a good rate, then all battery prices will reduce. Mind you it will take a while because the demand will be so collosal.

 

[swbluto]

I started wondering about lithium reserves now that the point has been brought up.

http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/2008/03/reserve-and-resource-summary.html

It appears that lithium reserves are at 12 million tons. It appears a LiFePO4 battery is like 1-3% lithium by weight. If the average car consumer has a 1000 pound battery, that implies each would have about 20 pounds of lithium on average.

That implies there's enough lithium to support at least 12,000,000tons*(2000pounds/ton)/(20 pounds per car) = 1.2 billion cars with current proven lithium reserves. So, it appears like America would be supportable but maybe not the world. If lithium were recyclable, than this wouldn't be that bad of a problem, but I haven't seen recovery figures for lithium back to battery-usable form. That's probably because they aren't since it's cheaper, for now, to mine lithium than to recycle it, but if mining becomes more expensive as supply dwindles, then the cost would converge to the cost of recycling.

However, if lithium-air becomes a competitive technology, then maybe you're talking about more like 10+ billion supportable cars.

Now, this is with proven reserves. As far as I know, lithium reserves haven't been explored "as much" as oil reserves have due to the comparatively little demand for lithium (The largest consumer so far, laptop batteries. Wooooopie.).

So, supply worries seem to be in the distant future. By that time, hopefully supercapacitor or whatever else technology will catch up. Even if EESTOR is a hoax, there's authentic super-capacitor development that's approaching lithium's energy density so it'll likely become a practical competitor to current lithium types. They seem to be based on commonly available materials like polymers and barium, so supply concerns aren't as bad as with oil and likely better than lithium.

Anyways, if the price of energy storage converges to prices as they are or slightly cheaper, then it seems that electric bikes / "super cars" would be what personal transportation would converge to assuming oil becomes significantly more expensive as supply decreases. If it gets significantly cheaper, than a continuation of existing technology seems likely.

 

[paultrafalgar]

EESTOR and like ultracapacitors use Barium Titanate, so the scarcity of Titanium is relevant as well as Barium. Anyone remember how much Titanium there is. There whitening paint with it, so it can't be that scarce. On the other hand, I thought Titanium kit was damn expensive, so someone better google for the lowdown.

 

[swbluto]

EESTOR and like ultracapacitors use Barium Titanate, so the scarcity of Titanium is relevant as well as Barium. Anyone remember how much Titanium there is. There whitening paint with it, so it can't be that scarce. On the other hand, I thought Titanium kit was damn expensive, so someone better google for the lowdown.

According to Wikipedia, 0.63% by mass for titanium, and 0.0425% for barium.

According to wikipedia, it doesn't state an abundance for lithium. Even though lithium itself is as common as lead, the extractable types tend to be pretty rare (i.e., the type that would be used for lithium batteries).

Also, not all high energy density super capacitors use barium titanate.

Btw, I like wikpiedia's sense of humor. At http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEStor, there's a specification table for eestor and other competing battery chemistries and eestor seems to excel at all of them except the very last one:

Energy Storage Type: Eestor, Nimh, Lead, Lithium-ion
Commercially Available: no, yes, yes, yes

 

[John in CR]

It's about $6000 in batteries to get 80 mile range out of a very light weight car. If that got down to $2500, boy, that would be awesome. It's about 2 AH for every 1 mile for a lightweight car.

Ah/mile... It's sad morph. You've been a member here for a long time, but not long enough to have gained the most basic energy concepts...
I don't think I've ever met someone on a forum quite as special.

Liveforphysics,
why don't you go in the backyard and cut up some more batteries and play with some plato and legos. Let the big boys discuss electrical vehicles.

With that post along with the immediately prior one Morph, in just two posts you managed to exceed the cumulative output of a guy named Safe. BTW, I do believe it's Play-Doh, not plato, that you stuck a bit too deeply in your ears as a young boy. "The big boys..." Thanks, I haven't had a laugh like that in a while. The real shame is that you'll probably interpret my post as being in your support. Please do enlighten us some more.

John

 

[AussieJester]

"The big boys..." Thanks, I haven't had a laugh like that in a while.
John

hehehe... As i said to Luke, ol Morph is a bit like a traffic accident, you know you shouldn't be staring but you just can't help
but look.. this was just another of those occasions..I thought he would of added in the mandatory "mum joke" in his elementary school comeback to Luke's post!?! alas... it was noticeable missing! The funniest part though is how he his own posts make the situation worse for him without anyone else having to say anything. I think your special to Morph...in a rides the special bus kind of way


KiM

 

[jonescg]

I htink I read somewhere some battery company was looking into sodium iron phosphate cells for increased capacity and cheaper raw materials...


From Nature Materials 6, 749 - 753 (2007)
Published online: 9 September 2007 | doi:10.1038/nmat2007

"A multifunctional 3.5 V iron-based phosphate cathode for rechargeable batteries"
B. L. Ellis, W. R. M. Makahnouk, Y. Makimura, K. Toghill & L. F. Nazar

Abstract:
In the search for new positive-electrode materials for lithium-ion batteries, recent research has focused on nanostructured lithium transition-metal phosphates that exhibit desirable properties such as high energy storage capacity combined with electrochemical stability1, 2. Only one member of this class—the olivine LiFePO4 (ref. 3)—has risen to prominence so far, owing to its other characteristics, which include low cost, low environmental impact and safety. These are critical for large-capacity systems such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Nonetheless, olivine has some inherent shortcomings, including one-dimensional lithium-ion transport and a two-phase redox reaction that together limit the mobility of the phase boundary4, 5, 6, 7. Thus, nanocrystallites are key to enable fast rate behaviour8, 9. It has also been suggested that the long-term economic viability of large-scale Li-ion energy storage systems could be ultimately limited by global lithium reserves, although this remains speculative at present. (Current proven world reserves should be sufficient for the hybrid electric vehicle market, although plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and electric vehicle expansion would put considerable strain on resources and hence cost effectiveness.) Here, we report on a sodium/lithium iron phosphate, A2FePO4F (A=Na, Li), that could serve as a cathode in either Li-ion or Na-ion cells. Furthermore, it possesses facile two-dimensional pathways for Li+ transport, and the structural changes on reduction–oxidation are minimal. This results in a volume change of only 3.7% that—unlike the olivine—contributes to the absence of distinct two-phase behaviour during redox, and a reversible capacity that is 85% of theoretical.

 

[paultrafalgar]

Just for completeness, that reference is here:
http://www.nature.com/nmat/journal/v6/n10/abs/nmat2007.html
Edit:
... which lead to this:
http://www.nature.com/nmat/journal/v8/n2/abs/nmat2372.html
which says:
"Conjugated dicarboxylate anodes for Li-ion batteries

M. Armand1, S. Grugeon1, H. Vezin2, S. Laruelle1, P. Ribière1, P. Poizot1 & J.-M. Tarascon1

Abstract

Present Li-ion batteries for portable electronics are based on inorganic electrodes. For upcoming large-scale applications the notion of materials sustainability produced by materials made through eco-efficient processes, such as renewable organic electrodes, is crucial. We here report on two organic salts, Li2C8H4O4 (Li terephthalate) and Li2C6H4O4(Li trans–trans-muconate), with carboxylate groups conjugated within the molecular core, which are respectively capable of reacting with two and one extra Li per formula unit at potentials of 0.8 and 1.4 V, giving reversible capacities of 300 and 150 mA h g-1. The activity is maintained at 80 °C with polyethyleneoxide-based electrolytes. A noteworthy advantage of the Li2C8H4O4 and Li2C6H4O4 negative electrodes is their enhanced thermal stability over carbon electrodes in 1 M LiPF6 ethylene carbonate–dimethyl carbonate electrolytes, which should result in safer Li-ion cells. Moreover, as bio-inspired materials, both compounds are the metabolites of aromatic hydrocarbon oxidation, and terephthalic acid is available in abundance from the recycling of polyethylene terephthalate."
Sorry, that was a bit off-piste.

 

[jonescg]

So I wonder what the most expensive / limiting factor in EV batteries is? Abundance of the metal ion or the technology required to make the cathode?

 

[paultrafalgar]

In the INITIAL phase, the technology will be the limiting factor/most expensive. In the LONGTERM the limitiing factor will be the abundance of the elements/raw materials.