Knuckles
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Now This Really Sucks
- Thread starter Knuckles
- Start date
dnmun
1 PW
in two weeks the plume will be entrained into the current that will carry it around florida and up the east coast. gonna make land fall on long island.
deronmoped
10 kW
- Joined
- Oct 6, 2008
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- 706
I was looking at the volcano that is spewing ash, kinda makes this leak look like a drip. When is someone going to plug the volcano?
Deron.
Deron.
Knuckles
10 kW
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Knuckles
10 kW
John in CR
100 TW
That casing probably has some kinks in it as it was bent over.
Knuckles
10 kW
Edison Township Calls For Federal Takeover Of Gulf Oil Spill Cleanup
Should We Nuke The Oil Spill?
[youtube]WwlNPhn64TA[/youtube]
A new oil rush endangers the Gulf of Mexico and the planet
Surfer Magazine Blog ... A volcano of oil erupting
[youtube]did-S6XbpMM[/youtube]
This well had to produce over 60,000 barrels per day in order to break even. Shocking as it seems, this well would have been closed in and disposed of had it produced a minor total like 20,000 barrels per day. That would have been a "Dry Hole"! It wouldn’t have paid for the pipes to bring the oil to market. The fact that BP management was aboard the rig and very happy, celebrating, just prior to the explosion says the well probably produces more than 200,000 barrels per day. It might well have produced 500,000 or more. Royalties to the US Government multiply the numbers for break even by about 2:1 so 500,000 barrels per day is very realistic. And that is what they would have been celebrating while things were under control.
This is not a system in stasis. This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with between 20,000 and 50,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away. It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas.
BP is hiding oil spill facts  and government lets it
Flow Rate Remains Critical Unanswered Question in BP Oil Disaster
So what is the flow rate? Is it 5,000 barrels a day, as BP and the government have repeatedly claimed in recent weeks? Or is it closer to 80,000 or 100,000 barrels a day, as some independent analysts have guessed based on footage of the oil gushing out of the riser pipe?
Who came up with the 5,000 barrels/day estimate anyway? Most media reports suggest that it was BP, but the New York Times reported last week:
“The figure of 5,000 barrels a day was hastily produced by government scientists [NOAA] in Seattle. It appears to have been calculated using a method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills.â€Â
Why BP Won't Measure the Oil Spill
Should We Nuke The Oil Spill?
[youtube]WwlNPhn64TA[/youtube]
A new oil rush endangers the Gulf of Mexico and the planet
Surfer Magazine Blog ... A volcano of oil erupting
[youtube]did-S6XbpMM[/youtube]
This well had to produce over 60,000 barrels per day in order to break even. Shocking as it seems, this well would have been closed in and disposed of had it produced a minor total like 20,000 barrels per day. That would have been a "Dry Hole"! It wouldn’t have paid for the pipes to bring the oil to market. The fact that BP management was aboard the rig and very happy, celebrating, just prior to the explosion says the well probably produces more than 200,000 barrels per day. It might well have produced 500,000 or more. Royalties to the US Government multiply the numbers for break even by about 2:1 so 500,000 barrels per day is very realistic. And that is what they would have been celebrating while things were under control.
This is not a system in stasis. This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with between 20,000 and 50,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away. It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas.
BP is hiding oil spill facts  and government lets it
Flow Rate Remains Critical Unanswered Question in BP Oil Disaster
So what is the flow rate? Is it 5,000 barrels a day, as BP and the government have repeatedly claimed in recent weeks? Or is it closer to 80,000 or 100,000 barrels a day, as some independent analysts have guessed based on footage of the oil gushing out of the riser pipe?
Who came up with the 5,000 barrels/day estimate anyway? Most media reports suggest that it was BP, but the New York Times reported last week:
“The figure of 5,000 barrels a day was hastily produced by government scientists [NOAA] in Seattle. It appears to have been calculated using a method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills.â€Â
Why BP Won't Measure the Oil Spill
Knuckles
10 kW
[youtube]2k1Qy5xTarU[/youtube]
http://blog.skytruth.org/
"Envisat ASAR radar satellite image (black and white) taken May 18, 2010, shows oil slick entrained in the Loop Current and spreading out to the southeast. Slick and sheen covers 15,976 square miles (41,377 km2), about 50% larger than seen in yesterday's MODIS image and about twice the size of New Jersey."
More images: http://www.flickr.com/photos/skytruth/4622687873/
"Envisat ASAR radar satellite image (black and white) taken May 18, 2010, shows oil slick entrained in the Loop Current and spreading out to the southeast. Slick and sheen covers 15,976 square miles (41,377 km2), about 50% larger than seen in yesterday's MODIS image and about twice the size of New Jersey."
More images: http://www.flickr.com/photos/skytruth/4622687873/
Knuckles
10 kW
[youtube]EXTcM2ntlkM[/youtube]
How Much Oil Has Leaked Into the Gulf of Mexico?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/oil-ticker/
How Much Oil Has Leaked Into the Gulf of Mexico?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/oil-ticker/
John in CR
100 TW
Is the tan colored stuff the chemical dispersant that they're adding? If so, you'd think a bit better aim is in order. Hopefully one of the next steps works and the gulf region doesn't have to wait for the other hole to get drilled. It's unfathomable to me that a faulty blowout preventer was in use that lead to this fiasco.
Icewrench
10 kW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLJHTTOSkpg
A 60 Minutes story on the gusher.
A 60 Minutes story on the gusher.
Knuckles
10 kW
[youtube]Jx5XgUYDQ3k[/youtube]
ngocthach1130
1 kW
So is this his own company or the company just hired him as a spoke person. Speaking of which, wasn't he in the movie water world.
Lock
100 MW
Lessss
1 MW
I say if they want to drill on the sea floor then no more platforms!
http://seasteading.org/interact/forums/community/dreaming-/-crazy-ideas-/-speculation/casting-concrete-structures-sea-floor
http://seasteading.org/interact/forums/community/dreaming-/-crazy-ideas-/-speculation/casting-concrete-structures-sea-floor
dnmun
1 PW
today is the day they were gonna see if they could push mud back down the casing from the lower ports on the BOP. this would be a miracle because it looks like that gas has blown out from behind the casing string that failed too.
i assume you guys know about the meeting between the BP engineer and the Transocean engineer after they told everybody else to leave. then went up on deck and pumped the mud off the lower plug.
this looks like Challenger redux.
engineers under time pressure pushing their luck so their manager could look good.
also i wondered if the dead battery was on the hydraulic pump for the shear rams in the BOP. so they never pumped to full pressure and crimped the drill stem, or maybe there was a drill stem collar in the ram that kept it from cutting. won't know until they do an autopsy on the BOP.
the initial overrunning of the diesel power units that caused several to explode may also have contributed to the failure. if the generators had cut out then maybe some of the controls could have been compromised. but the one thing i wonder most about is whether the diesel driven pumps failed for the hydraulic compensator which supports the drill rig at a fixed height above the ocean floor as the waves cause the platform to rise and fall on the waves and swells. the entire drill rig is separated from the platform through this hydraulic support.
if that hydraulic system and it's back up had failed while they had the drill stem supporting the casing string they were setting, then that would have allowed the entire weight of the rig and casing and drill pipe to be unsupported so if the rams on the BOP were being engaged as this load was applied, then the rams could have been deformed in their housing and seized up as they engaged the drill stem which would be seeking to drop all the way down into the bottom of the hole already drilled to depth. this would account for the failure to be able to get the rams to operate when actuated from the ROV. also this would explain the high rate of leak by around the drill stem too, since there are also seals which also operate higher up on the BOP.
all that weight from the rig and a mile of drill stem plus another 3 miles of drill stem to the shoe, and then that would been supporting the last casing string they were cementing, the load is just very high, this what real deep floaters are about, heavy drill string loads. this was close to the max.
to have this load hanging on the hook, and then no hydraulic compensator woulda been something that no design coulda accounted for, under normal failure patterns. there would always be a backup to kick in for the pressure to be maintained in the compensator while they went through a shutdown procedure. the blowout and fireball changed the dynamics too.
i assume you guys know about the meeting between the BP engineer and the Transocean engineer after they told everybody else to leave. then went up on deck and pumped the mud off the lower plug.
this looks like Challenger redux.
engineers under time pressure pushing their luck so their manager could look good.
also i wondered if the dead battery was on the hydraulic pump for the shear rams in the BOP. so they never pumped to full pressure and crimped the drill stem, or maybe there was a drill stem collar in the ram that kept it from cutting. won't know until they do an autopsy on the BOP.
the initial overrunning of the diesel power units that caused several to explode may also have contributed to the failure. if the generators had cut out then maybe some of the controls could have been compromised. but the one thing i wonder most about is whether the diesel driven pumps failed for the hydraulic compensator which supports the drill rig at a fixed height above the ocean floor as the waves cause the platform to rise and fall on the waves and swells. the entire drill rig is separated from the platform through this hydraulic support.
if that hydraulic system and it's back up had failed while they had the drill stem supporting the casing string they were setting, then that would have allowed the entire weight of the rig and casing and drill pipe to be unsupported so if the rams on the BOP were being engaged as this load was applied, then the rams could have been deformed in their housing and seized up as they engaged the drill stem which would be seeking to drop all the way down into the bottom of the hole already drilled to depth. this would account for the failure to be able to get the rams to operate when actuated from the ROV. also this would explain the high rate of leak by around the drill stem too, since there are also seals which also operate higher up on the BOP.
all that weight from the rig and a mile of drill stem plus another 3 miles of drill stem to the shoe, and then that would been supporting the last casing string they were cementing, the load is just very high, this what real deep floaters are about, heavy drill string loads. this was close to the max.
to have this load hanging on the hook, and then no hydraulic compensator woulda been something that no design coulda accounted for, under normal failure patterns. there would always be a backup to kick in for the pressure to be maintained in the compensator while they went through a shutdown procedure. the blowout and fireball changed the dynamics too.
Knuckles
10 kW
This Totally Totally Totally Really Sucks 
John in CR
100 TW
Dnmun,
What would be the diameter of the actual hole the oil and gas is coming up? The casing size is only near the top or much deeper? What about the drill string, is that still in the hole with everything coming up through the pipe, around the outside or both?
I wonder if that mess will make it to my old duck hunting camp on the eastern point of W Cote Blanche bay. That news clip of what was suspended in the water was just sickening. I think it may have been better to just let it come to the surface instead of using the dispersant. At least at the surface you've got a chance to remove it, though once it's into all the marshy areas good luck. It's not like the Exxon Valdez spill with rocky beaches where they could manually steam clean the rocks. How can they possibly get the oil out of marsh that is just grasses and mud?
What would be the diameter of the actual hole the oil and gas is coming up? The casing size is only near the top or much deeper? What about the drill string, is that still in the hole with everything coming up through the pipe, around the outside or both?
I wonder if that mess will make it to my old duck hunting camp on the eastern point of W Cote Blanche bay. That news clip of what was suspended in the water was just sickening. I think it may have been better to just let it come to the surface instead of using the dispersant. At least at the surface you've got a chance to remove it, though once it's into all the marshy areas good luck. It's not like the Exxon Valdez spill with rocky beaches where they could manually steam clean the rocks. How can they possibly get the oil out of marsh that is just grasses and mud?
Knuckles
10 kW
*
dnmun
1 PW
the first initial casing set in the ocean floor was likely 17". maybe 15", and i suspect they have 4 or 5 casing strings that got them to 18k' total depth where they were setting this last casing string.
the riser is attached to the top of the BOP and is supported on the surface by the drilling rig, and hangs from the platform along with the buoyancy sleeves (that surround the riser joints), that helps support it's weight. everything has to happen inside this riser. the casing string that was being set at depth is supported by the drill string through the tool which holds the casing string and then at the bottom of the casing string is the foot that allows the cement to squirt out around the outside of the casing as the casing is being lowered. this is all coordinated by the casing crew as they cement the casing in place, so all the weight of that drill stem 5k' to the ocean floor and then another 18k' deep to the bottom of the hole. this drill stem would also be supporting the weight of the casing string as it is lowered down into the riser, and the sections built up one joint at a time, about 33' each most likely. this last casing would most likely be 5-6" casing since it is the final casing string and this well was gonna be released to production through that casing.
the most common concern about failure of the BOP shear rams was if the rams encountered a drill collar as it was closing and the collars are too hard for the shear rams to crimp them off. this is a known problem and some feel it is a fatal weakness, and could be the cause here too. won't know until they get the BOP back on deck.
i have only heard there was a dead battery, that has not been established, but if the rams did not push to max force then that could be the result of the the dead battery not being able to run the pump to max pressure in the BOP.
it could be that the rams closed on a collar, but that is a low probability, 6" of collar out of 33' length of drill stem is 1.5%, but i bet there will never ever be a BOP in US waters after this that does not have two sets of rams. but i bet they have to do a lot of push ups to create an entirely new BOP design.
it just seems like the scenario of having the rams actually attempt to crimp the drill stem but get deformed and stuck in their housing as they cut into the drill stem which then would be carrying all that weight, including the weight of the rig sitting on top of the drill stem as the floater sank and dropped so low in the water that the rig was actually supported from the ocean floor by the drill stem, up until it buckled. that was how the riser ended up twisted in a knot down there as the floater sank.
this is gonna be really bad, no doubt about that. most likely will be the worst of all time. but i grew up down there and when we would go to the beach, there were always tar balls in the sand, but we never had the freak out media that people have now. this was 55 years ago when the tar balls were just part of the problem from tankers pumping the water out of their holds as they arrived along the coast to pick up oil to be exported from gulf coast ports like houston. there was a time when we exported oil, many years ago. W Cote is much farther west as i recall, but they drill there too, as you know.
actually tony hayward has turned the old BP cheapskate culture around. but it does appear that the BP engineer may have felt he could get away with pumping the mud off in spite of the kicks, and then bring in the floater that would do the final completion, versus the drilling that the transocean horizon was best at, and most expensive for that reason, which would explain why the engineer woulda wanted to bring in the other floater and complete the well with it, which would explain why he decided to pump the mud off, that is gonna be the crux of the lawsuit.
the riser is attached to the top of the BOP and is supported on the surface by the drilling rig, and hangs from the platform along with the buoyancy sleeves (that surround the riser joints), that helps support it's weight. everything has to happen inside this riser. the casing string that was being set at depth is supported by the drill string through the tool which holds the casing string and then at the bottom of the casing string is the foot that allows the cement to squirt out around the outside of the casing as the casing is being lowered. this is all coordinated by the casing crew as they cement the casing in place, so all the weight of that drill stem 5k' to the ocean floor and then another 18k' deep to the bottom of the hole. this drill stem would also be supporting the weight of the casing string as it is lowered down into the riser, and the sections built up one joint at a time, about 33' each most likely. this last casing would most likely be 5-6" casing since it is the final casing string and this well was gonna be released to production through that casing.
the most common concern about failure of the BOP shear rams was if the rams encountered a drill collar as it was closing and the collars are too hard for the shear rams to crimp them off. this is a known problem and some feel it is a fatal weakness, and could be the cause here too. won't know until they get the BOP back on deck.
i have only heard there was a dead battery, that has not been established, but if the rams did not push to max force then that could be the result of the the dead battery not being able to run the pump to max pressure in the BOP.
it could be that the rams closed on a collar, but that is a low probability, 6" of collar out of 33' length of drill stem is 1.5%, but i bet there will never ever be a BOP in US waters after this that does not have two sets of rams. but i bet they have to do a lot of push ups to create an entirely new BOP design.
it just seems like the scenario of having the rams actually attempt to crimp the drill stem but get deformed and stuck in their housing as they cut into the drill stem which then would be carrying all that weight, including the weight of the rig sitting on top of the drill stem as the floater sank and dropped so low in the water that the rig was actually supported from the ocean floor by the drill stem, up until it buckled. that was how the riser ended up twisted in a knot down there as the floater sank.
this is gonna be really bad, no doubt about that. most likely will be the worst of all time. but i grew up down there and when we would go to the beach, there were always tar balls in the sand, but we never had the freak out media that people have now. this was 55 years ago when the tar balls were just part of the problem from tankers pumping the water out of their holds as they arrived along the coast to pick up oil to be exported from gulf coast ports like houston. there was a time when we exported oil, many years ago. W Cote is much farther west as i recall, but they drill there too, as you know.
actually tony hayward has turned the old BP cheapskate culture around. but it does appear that the BP engineer may have felt he could get away with pumping the mud off in spite of the kicks, and then bring in the floater that would do the final completion, versus the drilling that the transocean horizon was best at, and most expensive for that reason, which would explain why the engineer woulda wanted to bring in the other floater and complete the well with it, which would explain why he decided to pump the mud off, that is gonna be the crux of the lawsuit.
Knuckles
10 kW
Thank You dnmun,
Have you worked on rigs before?
Have you ever seen a colossal fuckupedness like this before?
Your opinions are WELCOME!
*
Have you worked on rigs before?
Have you ever seen a colossal fuckupedness like this before?
Your opinions are WELCOME!
*
dnmun
1 PW
nope, never worked on rigs myself. my little brother did for awhile. i just follow the business because i invest in oil and gas producers and also in the drilling outfits sometimes.
transocean is considered a first class outfit which you have to be to do what they do but i observed that the BP engineer appears to have instructed the transocean rig manager that he wanted them to move off the well since it was completed, before it appears that the well was properly sealed.
this should be considered a personal mistake on the part of one person, but i think it will be discovered that this well had poor design, poor casing and cement jobs, and the fact that they had these gas kicks during this last interval when the cement shoulda been setting up is indicative of a very poor decision making process on his part, in spite of the opinions of some other people on the casing crew and the transocean rig supervisor who perhaps coulda acted more decisively to provide feedback to that BP engineer, but like with most things, power comes from the source of the money, and it was BP running the operation.
insurance rates have already increased 15-20% for shallow water jackups, and over 50% for the deep floaters.
because of the way BP is pointing fingers at the transocean and halliburton crews, i suspect it could be very hard for BP to continue to lease out the deep floaters in the future to develop a lot of their offshore prospects, since they may never agree to lease their floaters to BP or do their cement jobs, and that could be a real problem for the company if they cannot drill and add reserves to their books, along with losses that will eat up any profits they might have made, so this could be the beginning of a long dark period for BP, outside of the media hype that will ruin BP's reputation and make it really very hard for them to do business as normal in the future. all imho.
transocean is considered a first class outfit which you have to be to do what they do but i observed that the BP engineer appears to have instructed the transocean rig manager that he wanted them to move off the well since it was completed, before it appears that the well was properly sealed.
this should be considered a personal mistake on the part of one person, but i think it will be discovered that this well had poor design, poor casing and cement jobs, and the fact that they had these gas kicks during this last interval when the cement shoulda been setting up is indicative of a very poor decision making process on his part, in spite of the opinions of some other people on the casing crew and the transocean rig supervisor who perhaps coulda acted more decisively to provide feedback to that BP engineer, but like with most things, power comes from the source of the money, and it was BP running the operation.
insurance rates have already increased 15-20% for shallow water jackups, and over 50% for the deep floaters.
because of the way BP is pointing fingers at the transocean and halliburton crews, i suspect it could be very hard for BP to continue to lease out the deep floaters in the future to develop a lot of their offshore prospects, since they may never agree to lease their floaters to BP or do their cement jobs, and that could be a real problem for the company if they cannot drill and add reserves to their books, along with losses that will eat up any profits they might have made, so this could be the beginning of a long dark period for BP, outside of the media hype that will ruin BP's reputation and make it really very hard for them to do business as normal in the future. all imho.
John in CR
100 TW
Thanks Dnmun. I don't trust what comes out of the news, so I'm trying to get my own idea of the volume spewing into the gulf. I only had experience as a teen with land rigs and that drill pipe and bits, with little about the actual structure of the well under the ground. I'm assuming there's only one hole drilled to depth, though I guess there could be several or more. If only one, what is it's diameter? Is the drill pipe still in there, and is oil and gas flowing up inside the pipe only, outside the pipe, or both before it gets to the casing or riser?
There's no doubt the impact to the gulf will be big. How big remains to be seen. On the bright side though, the bigger the problem, the greater the push will be for electrics, so some good will come of it in the long run.
There's no doubt the impact to the gulf will be big. How big remains to be seen. On the bright side though, the bigger the problem, the greater the push will be for electrics, so some good will come of it in the long run.
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