Peak Car? End of the car age?

[cjh]

Just read this interesting article from The Guardian "End of the car age: How cities outgrew the automobile". I have been seeing the signs and slowly changing attitudes, but it is not going to happen in a hurry. There's a lot of resistance out there.

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/apr/28/end-of-the-car-age-how-cities-outgrew-the-automobile

 

[Nobuo]

Very interesting article, thanks for sharing
In Europe maybe is where this change is visibly going on smoothly faster. I can see in Madrid for example how in the last 5 years the downtown has doubled the pedestrian areas with parks or not allowed vehicles areas.
In Amsterdam, more over the Netherlands, cars has completely lost the battle, bikes has priority on the roads / ways, that simply blown my mind when I visited the country.
I think public transport and bikes are enough for the average 90% of the citizens in most countries in Europe. outside EU things are different, but the change is happening around the world

 

[beast775]

Fun read,i ended my gas -motorcycle travels for ebike yrs ago,so im pro end of cars.

 

[mikebikerad]

It might finally be the year of the e-bike, cool read!

 

[StudEbiker]

Now if you could just get the EU to end all the ridiculous restrictions on e-bikes. The US should also be less restrictive as well, but the EUs limitations are extreme.

If we all had e-bike laws like the have in Costa Rica it would be a huge motivator for people to get out of their cars and onto e-bikes. 8)

 

[SnowDog2112]

When I want to go buy a New Flat screen TV I want a 460ci land yacht. With a hood that jets out into the next area code, and takes 'till next tuesday to walk around to the other side. That the trunk is big enough for that and a weeks worth of everything.. The kids are safe and have room to run around and play, and she rides like a dream cruiser. Sorry Bikes. 8)

 

[dogman dan]

No signs of it happening here, in the Western USA. Big SUV's, and 4 door pickups out here. All with one person going to the store for a purchase less than 10 dollars. Cost of the trip, another 10 bucks.

 

[mikebikerad]

@Dogman dan your dead right, my sister lives in the santa fe area and she works at a private elementary school and the SUV's are lined up everyday to pick the kiddies up, and it is an alternative education school

Where we are in Seattle, there is very little cycling but there are a good # of ebikes in the cycling mix and it does feel like change is happening, albeit much slower than most European cities. Even our property manager stopped in last week and is going to install 2x20 foot covered bicycle parking spaces and wants to consult with us about best bike racks and locations of charging plugs for ebikes as well as a small fleet of ebikes for the tenants to use for day to day errands. We have already converted 5 other neighbors at our shop to ebikes so when the shop door is open around lunch you see them all whizzing by with smiles on their face. It is contagious!

 

[MadRhino]

The car era is only begining in Asia, but it's gonna crash some day, no doubt about it.

 

[striider]

Not happening here in Denver yet either Dogman. I passed only ~10 people on the way home from work (on foot or on bike), mostly on bike trails. After 2 commutes, I recognized 3 of them as repeat customers. ONe guy on a road bike was open to conversation and it took him a bit to realize I was on a ebike. Well, that's before I cooked by him on the road of course . I am surprised bike/jogging trails ever even made it in the budgets at all. People start to think once they see us sailing by, and that's a good thing!

 

[cal3thousand]

People are WAY too lazy (on average) for this to happen without some strong financial persuasion. Even then, they might not change attitudes due to being accustomed.

For example, there is a new Chick-fil-A in my area and the drive-thru is always 6-15 cars deep. Sometimes, there will be a dozen cars in the drive-thru with NO ONE in the line inside. And this is in 72 degree weather in California. They would rather burn .25 gallons of gas in the drive thru then have to set foot out of their lovely boxes.

 

[Eclectic]

Economics will be the driving force. As the middle class continues to disappear, the expense of a large vehicle will become less sustainable. I have noticed as the lower middle class gets downgraded to poverty, they are turning more & more to bicycles out of desperation.

My biggest concern is the way politics and a vocal minority seems to think (like the Amish) that the only alternative is to return to the 19th century. It seems that bicycles are the only magical alternative to cars for personal transportation. It has to look like a bike, work like a bike. “They” might be willing to work with you to try and get your technology to be defined as a bike, but it has to be a bike! “They” might be willing to create more infrastructure (a requirement for safety which is needed for large scale conversion) but “they” will ban any technology that is not a bike!

Stop trying to legislate technology! Instead of trying to legislate the minutia of every new technology (and stifling the advancement of alternative ideas), just regulate the behavior of the operator who wants to use the infrastructure.

As the idea of alternatives to cars becomes more popular, our voices need to become louder in saying that there a lot more alternatives than just bicycles. Take us forward, not backwards.

 

[Triketech]

Cars will be around for a very long time to come. We're not even close to the peak. That doesn't mean alternative forms of transportation won't rise, they very much will.

E-bikes at least for those on this forum, are sort of a version of the Hotrods of the 1950's. Some care not to do anything more then ride them. They don't know and likely don't care about this forum. They merely want a little boost when riding with no interest in the technical details, and they also represent the largest share of of e-assist buyers in the USA.

No matter the e-assist is growing and will continue to grow. And from that growth some will search, research, invest and build on some really cool stuff. That's what Americans do. And that's a good thing.

 

[arkmundi]

"Peak Car" a new entry to my lexicon. Passed on the article to some of our local transportation planning types, to see if we can accelerate the car-free trend here in the home town. Thanks for the post.

 

[Dauntless]

My biggest concern is the way politics and a vocal minority seems to think (like the Amish) that the only alternative is to return to the 19th century. It seems that bicycles are the only magical alternative to cars for personal transportation. It has to look like a bike, work like a bike.

It took almost a century for the horse age to end after the predictions of that began. One of the things that tried and failed to replace the horse was --- BICYCLES!

Stop trying to legislate technology! Instead of trying to legislate the minutia of every new technology (and stifling the advancement of alternative ideas), just regulate the behavior of the operator who wants to use the infrastructure.

As the idea of alternatives to cars becomes more popular, our voices need to become louder in saying that there a lot more alternatives than just bicycles. Take us forward, not backwards.

So what made the Dark Ages so DARK was that the Catholic Church had these guys: Can't remember the exact job title, but something like the 'Censor General.' Without them, we might be living in a more 'Star Wars' like era on this very day, there were untold advances that were banned, destroyed, prevented from spreading, taking centuries to be rediscovered. You know the French invented the robot decades before the American Revolution, right? One of the early builders fled an angry mob who reacted as they'd been conditioned to react --- 'DEMONS! KILL!'

Sure are a lot of people in the bicycle world that are longing for a new Dark Age.

 

[Punx0r]

I can't see cars going away any time soon (at least outside city centres), they're just too good 8)

 

[arkmundi]

Sure are a lot of people in the bicycle world that are longing for a new Dark Age.

We call them Light Electric Vehicles (LEV's) for the non-obvious reason of powered-by-solar. My 5-year goal 9 years ago was to go fossil-fuel-free with solar. Its when I bought the Ford Hybrid Escape and began an escapade of experimentation. I may finally realize that goal this year - getting solar on my roof. Problem has been I live in a smallish condominium, and geesh, try to get anything done! But then solar was expensive. Now, the costs have gone way done and the state incentives have gotten much better.

No, the real dark age began when we started digging coal out of the ground and powering industry with it. Then drilling for black gold. Then layering the Eaarth with the pollution of it all. But maybe people have become inured of their lack of any vision, having soot in their eyes, used to being just another cog in the machine. I like this Pope Francis guy and the moral edict to reduce-the-use. Canonical imperatives. History comes full circle. Might we get some dungeons back, to lock-down climate-deniers?

 

[Ch00paKabrA]

No, the real dark age began when we started digging coal out of the ground and powering industry with it. Then drilling for black gold. Then layering the Eaarth with the pollution of it all. But maybe people have become inured of their lack of any vision, having soot in their eyes, used to being just another cog in the machine. I like this Pope Francis guy and the moral edict to reduce-the-use. Canonical imperatives. History comes full circle. Might we get some dungeons back, to lock-down climate-deniers?

The "tolerance" crowd is so tolerant.

 

[Dauntless]

The "tolerance" crowd is so tolerant.

For the oppressors who made the dark ages possible, it was the best of times; it was the worst of times only for someone else. Now there are those who wish to make memories of their own. . . .

 

[Eskimo]

Peak car has been reached here definitely few years ago, young people just hate cars now. Partly because they can not afford to own one.
Cycling is increasing all the time but still we will never be carless society i think. Climate is just too bad for that. You need lots of power to push thru the snowy roads long distances.
Velomobile is a funny thing. Car drivers love it and cyclists hate it. Car drivers feel, that you are "one of them" on a velomobile. I get thumbs up from car drivers daily.
EU law is really middle age. Technology is going forward like a wild horse and EU is screaming no no no!. It is funny how many who consider themselves as a hard-core liberals dislike e-bikes. They want total control on things and on an e-bike they sense there"s something wild there, that can not be controlled totally.
Next year government is gonna okay Segways, unicycles and e-kickbikes and e-skateboards for bicycle lanes and everywhere without any restrictions or licences.
Things, that have way over 250W, only a throttle, and can not be pedalled even if rider wants to.
After that, when a guy on a 2kw Segway passes me on a bicycle lane, that EU-law is gonna look totally hilarious.

 

[ziltoid81]

Here i germany i see no change in general......even really poor people try everything to get some money for a car.
People will not change anything, only when they have really no money for a car.
The majority is simply too lazy and "short minded".
We on ES are a very small minority. .......even here are many peoples which only own an ebike for fun.
Many own an ebike AND a car or two, a motorcycle, and so on.

Iam car free for a year and it sucks......i want to test myself and i am honest, i miss my car.
I dont know how long i can resist.

So if even a guy like me, who is thinking about the environment, struggles, then the majority will never turn green on their own.

 

[LockH]

"End of the car age?" (I'm betting on it. This new 21st. Century.)

"Very interesting article..." (TBA. Sorry. But more interested in ES Alt. World response.)

"...change is visibly going on smoothly faster." Think I already quoted here... somewhere author Gibson "Future already here, just not equally distributed." (Paraphrasing maybe)

"...more over the Netherlands," Yah. Hot for the Dutch currently. One estimate from 2012 then already ONE MILLION Euro EPACs on their roads and paths.
(Personal note: Current vehicle colour Orange. Generations of my family "Orange". Dutch Majesties coming to Toronto soon. Again. Another vehicle Orange, Batavus HS50 - Stock Stinko-Mobile awaiting conversion to present to local embassy.)

Sorry I keep misspelling "pubic transport".

"the year of the e-bike" Hehe Local Ebiker Club Prez said same re Spring local bike show exhibitors and interest.

"EUs limitations are extreme." Not sure Oz Krew would agree with. (In other words, it can "get worse".)

"kids are safe" ... but the "kids" of others possibly less so.

"No signs of it happening here, in the Western USA. Big..." Yah. Same in Canada. Watt makes it more dangerous for traveling by cycle for ALL folk.

"...a good # of ebikes in the cycling mix..." One sneaky ebiker found "bike" (pedal trike w/hub motor) that LOOKED like a "bike" helped smooth the waters. Attract about zero attentions.

"It is contagious!" Thinking of offering therapy classes for the Ebike Addicted. (Insert snort here. maybe)

"... strong financial persuasion..." Waddling - watt used to be called "walking" - may cause some to rethink... things. But yeah, "Selling" here includes pointing out HUGE $$$ SAVINGS (compared to private vehicle ownership/use/insurance/maintenance... Sorry. Long list.)

"... voices need to become louder..." The Press often doing a fine job. (Depending who ya read. Environment currently SCREAMING, projected to get "worse".)

"...largest share of of e-assist buyers in the USA." Interesting. ANY (3rd party) statistics, by the way?

"Peak Car" "Peak" a lot of things.

"...young people just hate cars now." Pleased to report 50% of my daughters (the two that I know of) continue to have never owned nor operated said large, heavy, expensive Stinko-Mobile dangerous vehicle. (Her body shape still "trim".)

"Next year government is gonna okay (etc) without any restrictions or licences."

Ahh. "Politicians". (and civil SERVANTS, spring into action when spike inserted... somewhere.)

 

[Jackrabbit]

I love my cars, I also love my Ebike and my pedal bike. I use whichever is the most appropriate for the journey I'm taking.
As it stands unless you live in an urban area with good public transport there is no viable alternative to a car. How cars are powered is another matter and as battery tech and charging infrastructure improves I see the ICE vehicle slowly dying out.

 

[LockH]

http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/

Global Health Observatory (GHO) data
Urban population growth
Situation
The urban population in 2014 accounted for 54% of the total global population, up from 34% in 1960, and continues to grow. The urban population growth, in absolute numbers, is concentrated in the less developed regions of the world. It is estimated that by 2017, even in less developed countries, a majority of people will be living in urban areas.

Trends
The global urban population is expected to grow approximately 1.84% per year between 2015 and 2020, 1.63% per year between 2020 and 2025, and 1.44% per year between 2025 and 2030.

(My bet is on the urban folks.)
(...and the "ebike". :wink: )

 

[MadRhino]

No wonder why Netherland turned to bicycles, they have some of the highest urban density in the world.

Density is the main factor, with economics. Our cities are saturated, they were not designed for so many cars and the problem growth is almost impossible to stop. People in the cities start looking for alternative transportation, when their car is becoming to slow and costly to move around. Yet they keep buying cars that they seldom use, like it's a standard to have one, and a leisure to tour the highway in the weekend.