Post peak oil predictions

[deronmoped]

Just an FYI to everyone who needs it, America *does* drill its own oil. It's just not enough to quench the thirst of Americans. Oil production in the the USA peaked in the 1970's and it's declined since then and I think it's at around 70% of peak levels. Opening up those "protected refuges" and other points of contention would only increase supply by a smidge and certainly not enough to make us "independent".

Here's an image showing the constitution of oil production:

Here's another one showing imports and US production.

As you can see, there's no hope of making United States independent by drilling for more oil. It might lessen the gasoline price by up to 10 cents... (Btw, we're growing more dependent on foreign oil as time goes on.)

I always hate to see this side of the argument for not drilling for oil, because it ignores what drilling for our own oil will do for us.

Jobs in the USofA!

Less of our money going to foreign countries.

Lower prices for oil and I bet it would be a whole lot more then a measly ten cents a gallon.

Look at Alaska, every resident got a check for a cool $2,000.00 last year for their share of mineral rights.

What's the unemployment rate in your state? I bet there are plenty of people that would jump at a high paying job working in the energy field.

Of course you guys think the negative side is better for everyone. Less jobs, less money, less independence, less control...

Just crazy.

Deron.

I'm *not* saying that you shouldn't drill for that oil, I was just pointing out that

1) America already *does* drill for its own oil in mass quantities and that
2) Opening up the forbidden areas will have minimal impact on declining local production. You don't have to research history to tell that they opened up Alaska once America's supply peaked and you can see that it took about a decade to bring it to Alaska's supply peak, and even that didn't bring America's production back up to previous levels for even a year. Opening up the "small areas" sure isn't going to stave off declining production.

So, yes, open it up, sure, but don't be deluded in thinking that it's going to solve imminent supply and demand "problems" (demand stripping supply) - it *might* delay it for a half a year to five years. The amount of extra oil that it would generate wouldn't match previous production levels after it's brought into full development.

Yes, but to not go after our own energy sources only makes our situation worse, not better.

And the argument "it's not forever", is silly. Besides that, things need not last forever to be useful to us. Technology is always making things obsolete. At some point the ICE will become of less use to us because it will be overtaken by better technologies. Battery technology is advancing rapidly and burning fuel in our vehicles will soon be "old hat". So the large amounts of oil to power our vehicles need not have to last us much longer.

Going after the energy we need right now in a bad economy would be a good step towards a needed recovery.

If our leaders dropped all the barriers to producing more of our energy tomorrow, thousands if not tens of thousands of jobs would open up, the oil speculators would dump oil stocks driving the price down, other countries would drop their prices in response, people would be more upbeat about a economic recovery and invest and spend more...

Of course we can go down the same dead end road we are on. Less resources, more restrictions, sending more of our jobs and money overseas, a losing mindset.

Deron.

 

[deronmoped]

what is crazy is using up every last drop of oil in one generation.

this country could survive on the amount of oil pumped domestically. but the free roaming, drive anywhere, anytime, in any fat car or fat truck you can buy to satisfy your ego, would not cut it.

why there is so much ignorance about the coming end of the oil bonanza is beyond reason. it is as though the deniers will just continue to blame the obama communist conspiracy for everything that reduces their wasteful attitudes.

this country was built by people who used ingenuity to survive on nothing, our current culture is just waste to the max and has nothing to do with the cultural and historical roots of our economy.

this is all a result of our winning the second world war and having all the cheap oil from saudi arabia to waste to the max. it is very close to the end already, and no amount of republican hate mongering will make it reappear. it has already been consumed.

volkswagon has a prototype tandem with a 9hp diesel that gets 300mpg. basically an inline velomobile able to carry two passengers with the smallest possible frontal area for aero and low weight for efficiency.

I do not buy the argument that we should restrict ourselves to a more meager exsistance. You can't do this, you can't do that, you can only use so much, spend so much, waste so much... is not what made this country great or great people great. I'm sure there was plenty of people that tell the great inventors, it will never fly, you can not build a building half a mile high, you can not build a engine that displaces 1.56 million cubic inches and burns 1,660 gallons of oil every hour...

You talk about winning the WWII, but fail to mention that we did it by outbuilding them, using more resources then them, going over the top.

I say, go faster, go father, fly higher.

Should Burt Rutan give up his dream of providing space travel to private citizens because it's wasting energy?

Deron.

 

[deronmoped]

Oh

And oil will be around forever, there will never be a time where someone uses the "last drop of oil". The era of the ICE will soon be behind us, leaving the largest user of oil to be museum pieces. It's not going to happen next year, but give it a few years and you will soon see other technologies making a substantial dent in the power plant that gets us around.

And there is nothing stopping you from buying one right now!

Deron.

 

[swbluto]

Oh

And oil will be around forever

Cheap oil won't. :lol:


(Although, depending on future nanofactories and other future technologies, it might become cheap once again. Although, hopefully, other materials and substances will be more widely preferred.)

 

[geekybiker]

To know what the future will be like, you only need to look at the past. We weren't always a energy hungry, mega-opolis centric society. If transport and energy use become a bit deal I think the really huge cities will wither. Produce will become more local and seasonal. Alot more regional variation will pop up over time. People will reduce commutes, with each city having its own real center surrounded by its workers rather than suburban sprawl where driving 20 miles to go shopping or see a show is a real option. Sure alternate energy means we won't go back to 1930's tech levels, but I think we'll see big steps backwards in how people choose to structure their life.

Just for example, in the Chicago suburbs there is a huge mall called woodfield. Its put alot of stress on the smaller malls in the area such that many have lots of empty space and on the verge of closing. Take away cheap long range transport and those come back to life. Everything become a much more local proposition.

 

[Drunkskunk]

My question to all this is how sharp of a peak is it going to be. I've heard predictions that it could happen by 2015. I've heard others say peak oil was 2006, and we are past it.
If the peak looks like a soft flat hilltop on a large bell curve stretching over a couple hundred years, we may never notice, or indeed be able to exactly pinpoint to the year when peak oil is. we've been drilling and using it for almost 150 years, so I predict the decline will be as slow and gradual as the rise. I would define peak oil as NOW. if not this year, then atleast this decade.

I doubt peak oil will be much of a sharp peak. If it turns out to be so, then yeah, I think we're in trouble.

 

[dnmun]

in terms of peak consumption then think priorities.

the tractors we use develop 800 hp and run 20 hrs/day at some times.

so there will need to always be some offsetting consumption reduction in the non productive side of society. such as driving the fat ICE car. that is where the rationing is formulated.

 

[swbluto]

My question to all this is how sharp of a peak is it going to be. I've heard predictions that it could happen by 2015. I've heard others say peak oil was 2006, and we are past it.
If the peak looks like a soft flat hilltop on a large bell curve stretching over a couple hundred years, we may never notice, or indeed be able to exactly pinpoint to the year when peak oil is. we've been drilling and using it for almost 150 years, so I predict the decline will be as slow and gradual as the rise. I would define peak oil as NOW. if not this year, then atleast this decade.

I doubt peak oil will be much of a sharp peak. If it turns out to be so, then yeah, I think we're in trouble.

Well, it's not so much the supply that matters as does the demand AND supply. See, economic growth depends on economic efficiency and energy and material resources. Most material resources ultimately depend on energy to extract them, so you can look it as efficiency and energy for the most part. People demand economic growth - the people of India and China want to start driving cars more widespreadly, and the industries in those countries with undertapped potential are growing: growing industry requires growing energy. This increases demand. If supply simply stops growing and supply growth has been the assumption for the past century, and given the inelasticity of demand and supply, you're going to see significant price increases. With that, panic occurs and destabilization occurs.

But, if you want to know how oil supply alone is projected to go, it's suggested that it'll decline 2-3% per year, so it won't be "sudden". But... that's conventional supply. As the price increases, more expensive supplies will come online decreasing the actual supply decline. So, I suspect you might be looking at around 1-2% decline per year and it might converge to some level. So the supply decrease will not likely be huge and abrupt(Assuming a lack of interfering above ground factors such as middle eastern war), but the price fluctuations will be significant given the panicky nature of humans and the resultant free market.

 

[swbluto]

You know, another thing I've heard about the markets is that a lot the loans that fuel the economy banks on one MAJOR thing: future growth. Future growth predicates the ability to pay off the original principal and interest (no growth, only the principal could be paid off; shrinkage, and not even that can be paid off and default! Growth allows the principal and some amount past that to be paid off.) . If future growth didn't occur, would that undermine the entire economic system?

I kind of wonder how the current oil prices are influencing the current recession. Does it seem at all odd that oil prices have risen during a time that unemployment in the United States has increased? The more there are unemployed people, the less people drive in general, so US's gasoline demand likely hasn't risen over the past year or two nor has its associated demand in goods. But, yet at the same time, the oil price has stabilized at a significantly higher price level than historic price levels, even after adjusting for inflation.

Looking it the otherway, though, it does seem understandable that higher oil prices might influence a higher unemployment rate. I like to think the economy is just "transitioning" to a different overall makeup of operation, and unemployment is just a temporary effect of that "transitioning", but I wonder how permanent it could be? Economics suggests that unemployment, like commodity surplus, occurs when the "price is too high" - if you have a lot of cakes, but you price them at $100, you're going to have a lot of unsold cakes; If the average American worker will only accept above $15/hr. to support the lifestyle their accustomed to, but yet people in china will do the same work for $1/hr., then american laborers are just simply too expensive - there's going to a lot of "unsold employment", i.e., unemployment. For workers, that'd imply wages are too high for everyone to be employed. I think this implies that there's going to be a decline in living standards due to lower average wage rates before the unemployment rate is brought down to "normal levels"; now whether that decline in "living standards" is really more of a decline in luxury than "necessary wants"(Lol) is to be seen - given America's tremendous wealth, I'm inclined to think of it as just a decline in luxury (I.e., a car instead of a hummer; homebrew coffee instead of $5 starbucks latte). Unlike the great depression, I don't think this recession can easily rely on a some growing source of energy to fuel its growing industry.

 

[evblazer]

Maybe I've watched too many sci fi movies but I think somehow someway the wells will all be tapping everything there is and people will go on in their wasteful ways and of course as it happening more countries will increase their wasteful ways until day after day a well will run dry or drop to a very low level of production. I mean someone will find some miracle to solve all our problems just in time so why should I suffer in the mean time :wink:

I knew some real old timers and there are still a few of them around who I talk to. Talking to them for most of the last century it was in a few years we'll be off oil in a few years everything will change they just laugh about it now. Many of them have had geothermal, solar, veggie oil, electric cars and the like since before I was born. They'd talk about stuff like GM's electric corvair in the 60's was the same specs as the EV1 which for being so many years apart it was remarkably similar. Keep the promise of change a little out so people stay wasteful and people in the $$ make $$$ which is what it is all about.

I'm thinking glutteny of resources till the end. Lots of war to waste more resources all while the general population slowly dies out or kills eachother trying to survive.

I don't think it is odd that oil prices have risen during unemployement going up in the US. There probably are alot of other factors out there determining it's price and they matter more and more for every year the US in general becomes less and less of what they thought they once were. Plenty of folks to buy the oil and you want to sell it for as much as you can but not so much that people will cut back on it. Since the world is an addict and oil is the drug to prosperity you just gotta keep em hooked.

 

[neptronix]

We'll switch over to EV power, biofuel, and CNG.

Viable alternatives exist already! It's only an issue of cost holding them back.
Civilization ain't gonna crumble.

 

[PedalingBiped]

They are not building more refineries. This means that there is only have enough oil to keep the existing ones busy.

I have heard one guy on the radio talk of water fraction. When a well slows down they start pumping steam down to force more oil up. Water also comes up. When the water comes out more then oil, we have a problem.

He was saying that the Saudis deny they are injecting steam into wells and that their real water fraction is a large percentage.

He thought the Saudis had already hit Peak. This was 5 yrs ago.

More efficient cars, like that required by most other countries, would reduce the need. (short term)

China is going into developing countries buying up oil and mineral rights. They don't care about bribes, wars, dictators or human rights.

If we actually reduced out need for oil, then China would pick up our slack.

 

[swbluto]

We'll switch over to EV power, biofuel, and CNG.

Viable alternatives exist already! It's only an issue of cost holding them back.
Civilization ain't gonna crumble.

Cost represents something. Do you know what that is? Its total availability. If something costs more, people are only able to afford less of it as less of it is "available". What does that mean? Things are going to be cut back. Lifestyles will change, however possibly minimally so.

However, research and development and associated "break-throughs" could possibly reduce costs so that we wouldn't notice a significant reduction in the "quality of life". That'd be cool if that happens, although nothing seems to be as "free energy" as oil unless some relatively "cheap" process can be used to convert solar energy into whatever usable form of energy. "Bio fuel" seems to be a likely outcome, whether from algae, plants or something else. "Electricity" is not really "free energy" - it's usually derived from oil, coal, solar and some solar derivative (like the wind).

 

[evblazer]

We'll switch over to EV power, biofuel, and CNG.

Viable alternatives exist already! It's only an issue of cost holding them back.
Civilization ain't gonna crumble.

I think if we switch all the H2, H3, Excursions not to mention buses and tractor trailers over to EV, Biofuel or CNG we can watch those distribution chains crumble alot faster than oil will run out.

I really think those just around the corner same but different things really squash people thinking they need to change.

 

[Drunkskunk]

We'll switch over to EV power, biofuel, and CNG.

Viable alternatives exist already! It's only an issue of cost holding them back.
Civilization ain't gonna crumble.

There is less natural gas than oil, and we use it now to heat homes and run power plants. Sure it's cleaner than oil or coal, but there isn't enough to meet our needs as oil declines.

As for Bio fuels... as of 2007 17% of the world is going hungry* 100,000 people drop dead each day for want of a handfull of rice, or some table scraps*. If we can grow more than we do now, it would be stupid to burn it. we can't feed the people we have, we have no right to convert any agracultural space to power lifestyles and let kids die.

EV is about the only option we have at this point for portable power long term, and it's questionable whether there would be enough Lithium to meet the world's needs.







* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starvation

 

[swbluto]

We'll switch over to EV power, biofuel, and CNG.

Viable alternatives exist already! It's only an issue of cost holding them back.
Civilization ain't gonna crumble.

There is less natural gas than oil, and we use it now to heat homes and run power plants. Sure it's cleaner than oil or coal, but there isn't enough to meet our needs as oil declines.

Given the apparent volatility of natural gas prices, I think I concur that current natural gas supply is likely tapped near the max.

 

[swbluto]

Update

I've been keeping up on the oil markets and found the following information pretty interesting: http://peak-oil.org/2013/09/the-export-capacity-index/

It applies real-world data to the "Export Land Model", which shows that global net exports decline faster than global oil production due to a country's tendency to increase its own oil consumption over time, and that's significant because net importers like the USA and Europe are dependent on the availability of net exports.

This was of interest to me because of this graph:

That's interesting because the only other time in history US oil consumption declined in the last 40 years was during the 1980s during the limiting of exports by OPEC (Trying to force a high price), but this time, it appears the decline in US oil consumption is not due to someone artificially limiting production, but because of declining global exports in combination with growing chinese and indian consumption. That's significant because those are persistent trends based on fundamental supply and demand factors as opposed to something temporary -- meaning, the US economy isn't likely to get a "whole lot better" over the long run like it has in past oil-induced recessions. (Or, if it's going "get better for everyone", it'll likely be because of factors OTHER than oil. Like, perhaps, several revolutions in energy and energy storage technology.)

However, this graph suggests the tide may turn around for the US.

But, then again, the longterm fundamentals don't look too promising according to the page this graph came from.

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/08/15/united-states-and-china-oil-consumption-and-imports-a-tale-of-two-very-different-countries/

(That is, sure, US oil production might increase but that doesn't mean that'll help out US oil consumption and "the overall economy" if much of it gets exported to growing power houses like China.)