Tesla pack costs $200/kwh? Tipping point price?

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Most (maybe all) of the $200 kwh price estimates come from Martin Eberhard, not Tesla but he should have a very good idea of Tesla pack prices since he was active in their development, is currently developing similar packs for VW and has no incentive to hype Tesla.

Tesla does state their packs are so much cheaper than Nissan's quoted $375/kWh price that its a competitive advantage.

$200 kwh means roughly a 150 mile range for about $6k. If that isn't a tipping point price its getting pretty close IMO.

Sources (with brief excerpts):
http://www.dailytech.com/Model+S+Wo...+Already+Predicting+a+Profit/article20544.htm

According to The Wall Street Journal Nissan's battery pack costs about $750/kWh. Tesla says it will deliver at a cost of around $200/kWh.

Brett Smith, an analyst specializing in alternative propulsion vehicles at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, agrees that Tesla is outsmarting its competitors. He states, "There’s a method to their madness. Tesla is using cells that, while not exactly the same as those in laptops, can be made on existing lines that already mass-produce them. Especially for a small manufacturer, there’s a logic to what they’re doing."

The fact that Tesla was briefly profitable when it was solely operating based on the Roadster and not investing significantly in the Model S lends support to the company's claims, as well.

http://www.dailytech.com/Tesla+CEO+...imitive+Boasts+About+Model+S/article19286.htm

Thus when Nissan claimed to have reached production costs of $375/kWh for its upcoming 2011 Nissan LEAF EV, it turned heads. After all, most auto companies were saying that they hoped to reach $400-$700/kWh with their upcoming models.

Musk says the new vehicle will sport significant improvements to its battery. It will feature 50 percent more density per module -- meaning that it will pack 3 cells into a similar sized module for ever 2 of the Roadster's pack. It also ditches the expensive all-cobalt electrode in favor of a nickel cobalt aluminum cathode (positive electrode). The new composite cathode will be much cheaper, while not significantly impacting performance.

The company has not revealed the cost per kWh that it's targeting for the Model S. In 2009 the industry average, according to a Deutsche Bank report [PDF], was $650/kWh, but current orders being placed for the 2011/2012 timeframe are averaging $450/kWh. The rapidly dropping prices are helping to cut the cost of laptop batteries as well, which are priced at $350/kWh, according to LG Chem subsidiary Compact Power’s CEO Prabahkar Pati. Pati says that low price is a sign of things to come for the auto industry.

http://www.autoevolution.com/news/cheap-batteries-will-make-tesla-s-model-s-profitable-29138.html

Their new four-door all-electric sedan, expected to cost $57,000 (€42,833), will use cheaper battery cells similar to those in laptops, that will turn a profit for the California-based company after just 20,000 annual deliveries, Chief Technology Officer J.B. Straubel said in an interview...

Tesla’s battery packs, which comprise of thousands of small lithium-ion cells similar to those used in portable computers, may cost just $200 (€150) per kilowatt hour, compared to about $700 to $800 (€524 to €601) per kilowatt hour for large-form cell lithium-ion packs, stated Martin Eberhard, a Tesla founder and former chief executive.

http://rumors.automobilemag.com/tesla-20000-model-sales-required-start-posting-profits-11763.html

Tesla’s 18560 cell battery pack, which is similar to our everyday laptop battery, has the benefits of preexisting R&D from major tech companies (Panasonic has invested $30 million in Tesla) and advanced economies of scale, not to mention enviable energy density. According to Martin Eberhard, Tesla’s co-founder who later left the company and has famously sparred with Tesla CEO Elon Musk since, the 18560-cell packs likely cost $200 per kilowatt-hour, which is 71- to 75-percent cheaper than large-form cell lithium-ion packs at current analyses. Additionally, the cells have already diverged onto a dedicated EV development route and are expected to see further year-over-year price drops from 6 to 8 percent.

http://www.motorward.com/2011/01/tesla-to-become-profitable-using-cheap-batteries/

Tesla Model S uses the same sort of batteries as the Roadster which are known as laptop batteries, even though they are not quite the same. Thanks to the new plans backed by Daimler and Toyota, Tesla’s new battery packs are going to be more cost effective, reportedly four times better than the ordinary lithium-ion packs.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Toyota also says Tesla packs are less expensive:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70A4QY20110111

Toyota sees Tesla EV battery cost at 1/3

(Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) (TM.N) top engineer said the batteries that would power the electric RAV4 crossover being developed with Tesla Motors (TSLA.O) could cost as little as one-third of the electric car batteries being developed by conventional automakers.

Silicon Valley startup Tesla links together thousands of lithium-ion batteries used in laptops to power its zero-emission Roadster sports car, while automakers with electric models such as Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211.T) and Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) use expensive batteries developed specifically for EV use.

"If (Tesla's battery structure) works, we won't have to wait for a breakthrough in battery technology to develop a relatively cheap electric vehicle," Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, who heads Toyota's research and development, told Reuters in an interview at the Detroit auto show on Tuesday.

"It could be as low as one-third of the cost of batteries being developed by car makers, because (laptop) batteries are produced in massive volumes."

Toyota, the world's biggest automaker, tied up with Tesla last year and the two companies are racing to prepare a RAV4 EV by next year, when Toyota will also launch a tiny electric commuter car developed in-house. Toyota has said the RAV4 EV would target drivers traveling longer distances, while its own EV would be suitable for short distances.

 

[SamTexas]

Sounds great!

So is the RC battery business doing the same thing as Tesla's? I'd would be more than happy to fork over twice as much ($400) for one kwh. On my bicycle, that would be more than 100 miles per charge! Wow!

 

[Hillhater]

Sounds great!

So is the RC battery business doing the same thing as Tesla's?

Nope !
Tesla is (reportedly) using Lithium Ion cells, whilst the RC world is using the higher capacity Lithium polymer chemistry.

 

[SamTexas]

Do you know why? Energy density, longevity, user friendliness, dis/charge rate or what?

 

[Hillhater]

Energy density mainly.
for models, (air ,boat or car..but especially helicopters ) .. weight is critical.

 

[Jeremy Harris]

There's some terminology confusion going on here.

Pretty much all lithium chemistry cells are, by their nature, lithium ion cells, meaning that energy transport within the cell is by the movement of lithium ions from one plate to the other.

The term lithium polymer is an abbreviated form of lithium ion polymer and refers to lithium ion cells where the lithium salt electrolyte is held in a polymer layer between the electrodes, rather than in a wet organic solvent. A lithium polymer cell is a lithium ion cell, as far as its chemistry and performance is concerned, it's just constructed differently.

There are various different chemistries that can be used for the cathode of lithium cells, both for "wet" lithium ion cells or "dry" lithium ion polymer cells, and it's these that give the difference in characteristics and performance between the different cell types. The anodes of all cell types are carbon, usually graphite. The three most common cathode variants are lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2), lithium manganese oxide(LiMn2O4) and lithium ferrous phosphate (LiFePO4). There are also newer cathode compounds being used, containing mixes of nickel, manganese and cobalt.

The RC type LiPo batteries usually use lithium cobalt oxide cathodes. These cells have the highest energy density of any lithium cell (at the moment and AFAIK) but are also the most sensitive to misuse. Early LiCoO2 cells had limited discharge rates and tended to overheat and vent both when over-charged and when discharged at rates above their limits, hence the reputation LiPo cells have for catching fire (most of which is pretty much unfounded when you look at the millions in use and the small number of reported incidents).

Lithium manganese oxide cells store less energy for a given size and weight than LiCoO2 LiPo cells, but are generally considered to be slightly safer than LiCoO2 LiPo cells. Last in the energy density list is LiFePO4 cells, which are also the safest chemistry around and the one that looks to have the greatest cycle life. LiFePO4 cells are commonly available as LiPo (the Ping packs for example) and "wet" cells (A123 cylindrical cells, for example).

Generally, plain lithium ion cells tend to be the ones in metal cans or rigid prismatic packs and lithium ion polymer cells are the ones in pouches. You can't tell the chemistry by the package, though, as a LiPo pouch cell could be any of the three common types or even a different cathode chemistry altogether.

Jeremy

 

[voicecoils]

Great lithium ion summary Jeremy!

Something to note with $/kWh prices is whether the quoted figure is for the raw cells only or the fully engineered pack with interconnects, BMS, casing etc. When mass produced, those components (call them "balance of system' perhaps) should be a quite small part of the overall pack cost but early on I suspect pack development costs are quite high and that needs to be recouped.

I also don't necessarily think there will be a $/kW "tipping point". Considering that most auto makers are rapidly developing EVs and racing to get them to market, perhaps the tipping point has already happened. Who would want to produce a car that didn't have a market (buyers) or be profitable to sell?

 

[TylerDurden]

Related:

Toyota to make lithium batteries for hybrids: Nikkei

– Wed Jan 12, 1:54 pm ET
(Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp is planning to mass-produce lithium ion batteries for its plug-in hybrid vehicles from this autumn as Panasonic Corp and Hitachi Ltd get set to churn out similar products of their own, the Nikkei business daily reported.

Toyota's first-ever production lines for lithium ion batteries at its plant in Aichi Prefecture and at a factory operated with Panasonic in Shizuoka Prefecture are slated to cost the carmaker 10 billion yen ($120 million), the business daily said.

These facilities will make batteries for about 100,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles a year, the Nikkei said. Toyota plans to release these vehicles in Japan, the United States and Europe at the start of 2012, the paper said.

Lithium ion batteries are seen as more suitable for eco-cars, but their cost has been an issue as it accounts for about half the cost of a typical electric car, the Nikkei said, adding that manufacturing them in-house will give Toyota more control over performance and costs.

Panasonic plans to begin mass production of lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles as early as April and intends to market them to automakers at home and abroad, in addition to supplying the batteries to U.S. partner Tesla Motors Inc, the paper said.

Hitachi, which already supplies batteries for General Motors Co hybrids, will begin mass production of high-performance lithium ion batteries for plug-in hybrids in 2013, the business daily said.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi Sam,

Sounds great!

So is the RC battery business doing the same thing as Tesla's? I'd would be more than happy to fork over twice as much ($400) for one kwh. On my bicycle, that would be more than 100 miles per charge! Wow!

No its not. Tesla has designed a Pack/BMS that works with minor settings changes with any Lithium based 18650 cell. This allows them to use whatever chemistry gives them the best price performance at any point in time and allows the cell manufacturer to use their 18650 production lines. The 18650 production lines are highly optimized due to the huge volume (these cells are used in laptops which have a much larger market than either RC or Ebikes). And Tesla has enough volume or projected volume to get Panasonic to produce the cells Tesla wants in the 18650 format and to get a good price. So to get a comparable deal you need to get Panasonic or another manufacturer of desirable cells to:

• 1. Sell you the high quality (for EV use) cells in an the 18650 format.
  2. Give you a great price.
  3. Build packs with the 18650 cells (pretty easy if you use this method).

 

[SamTexas]

Thanks MitchJi. Yes, leamcorp's idea is elegant and efficient. If I were to build a pack, that'd be the method I employ.
Sam