TESLA to Plans to Build World’s Biggest Battery Factory!
- Thread starter USAEBIKECO
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speedmd
10 MW
I do not see any down side to the plant with regards to EV development in the US. We all will benefit one way or another by risk takers like Musk. As long as he produces a good quality / safe product that is reasonably priced, he will do just fine with this venture. "Build it and they will come", as in customers. Companies like GM and Ford are too entrenched into protecting their current technologies / brands to take the lead in this without some stock holder revolt. Sure they will buy what he has to offer if any capacity is available. Spreading the wealth out into the desert SW is not a bad idea either. Selling a ton of cars is a cake walk. Every one is more than a ton. 
Google order of magnitude.Hillhater said:
Yes they will sell a lot of Model IIIs because it will be affordable and something people actually want!Secondly they will sell cells to others. This is going to be a good thing. They also now have the Model X and they are planning for a truck one day and an even cheaper car then the Model III between that and selling batteries and parts to other OEMs I think they will do just fine.
methods
1 GW
If they are thirty thousand bucks then...
I am going to buy 3 model III's:
1) For the commute
1) For the wife
1) To destroy
Speaking of A123... yesterday final arguments were made to convince me that cylindrical (not pouches) are for the win.
Once I saw the proposed method of automated assembly... yea.
Looking forward 10 years... 20 years... 40 years...
I dont want to be buying creased up, possibly compromised pouches that someone degassed in their back yard with a razor blade :? .
I want batteries that are rigidly constructed such that I do not have to "worry" about how they were handled.
I want cells that are in a predictable form factor so they can be re-purposed, re-certified, up-cycled, and used forever.
We settle on a "large form factor" and use cheap alloy/composite spacers to fit smaller form factors.
Along those lines...
The chemistry must also be fault tolerant.
Any chemistry with a "bad attitude" is "bad news"
I am definitely willing to give up volume or weight for safety.
I have sold off all of my Hobby King lipo, all of my pouch technology, etc. For my next project - it will be the energy dense A123 cells.
Now...
To make money.
I think today I will attempt to attain gainful employment.
-methods
I am going to buy 3 model III's:
1) For the commute
1) For the wife
1) To destroy
Speaking of A123... yesterday final arguments were made to convince me that cylindrical (not pouches) are for the win.
Once I saw the proposed method of automated assembly... yea.
Looking forward 10 years... 20 years... 40 years...
I dont want to be buying creased up, possibly compromised pouches that someone degassed in their back yard with a razor blade :? .
I want batteries that are rigidly constructed such that I do not have to "worry" about how they were handled.
I want cells that are in a predictable form factor so they can be re-purposed, re-certified, up-cycled, and used forever.
We settle on a "large form factor" and use cheap alloy/composite spacers to fit smaller form factors.
Along those lines...
The chemistry must also be fault tolerant.
Any chemistry with a "bad attitude" is "bad news"
I am definitely willing to give up volume or weight for safety.
I have sold off all of my Hobby King lipo, all of my pouch technology, etc. For my next project - it will be the energy dense A123 cells.
Now...
To make money.
I think today I will attempt to attain gainful employment.
-methods
arkmundi
10 MW
Bravo. I'm interested in how you manage the cylindrical cell format in the building of your pack.methods said:
methods
1 GW
The hangup before was trying to keep things within reach of the average DIY guy.
Times have changed quite a bit over the last 5 or so years... Now it is well within the reach of almost any enthusiast to own a 3D printer, a cheap programmable router, and a tab welder.
When I was starting on this project... even getting a PCB printed was cost-prohibitive (hundreds for a small run of low quality). Now we can get high quality PCB's for $1/inch. Things have progressed VERY quickly.... and this requires a re-analysis of the game plan.
Even if a person does not have the skill to operate a 3D printer... they can still find someone at work who will design what they need for a case of beer - then either print it over the weekend or send it off for printing almost anywhere. (there are Forums full of folks willing to print 3D stuff for you with their DIY printer)
All the tools are there.
Mechanically inclined folks are doing it.
Now I am going to have a go.
I don't really think the standard cylindrical's are "the win" for RC Airplanes... but for almost everything else...
-methods
Times have changed quite a bit over the last 5 or so years... Now it is well within the reach of almost any enthusiast to own a 3D printer, a cheap programmable router, and a tab welder.
When I was starting on this project... even getting a PCB printed was cost-prohibitive (hundreds for a small run of low quality). Now we can get high quality PCB's for $1/inch. Things have progressed VERY quickly.... and this requires a re-analysis of the game plan.
Even if a person does not have the skill to operate a 3D printer... they can still find someone at work who will design what they need for a case of beer - then either print it over the weekend or send it off for printing almost anywhere. (there are Forums full of folks willing to print 3D stuff for you with their DIY printer)
All the tools are there.
Mechanically inclined folks are doing it.
Now I am going to have a go.
I don't really think the standard cylindrical's are "the win" for RC Airplanes... but for almost everything else...
-methods
Hillhater
100 TW
It is easy to casually say they can sell tonnes (500k+ ?) of mod3 in a few years time, but do you comprehend what that actually means ?
That is effectively one car every minute !..every day, 24/7 non stop !
That would be quite some achievement for a car that doesn't exist yet, from a manufacturing plant(s) that doesnt exist yet, and will likely have many new competitors by the time it gets into production.
The drive battery pack is probably only 10-15% of the manufacturing requirement of a new EV , so Tesla has yet to design, and build 80+% of the Mod3 manufacturing facilities,..IE that is going to be at least 2 to 4 times bigger than the "Gigafactory" in terms of scale, resources, and investment ?.
That is effectively one car every minute !..every day, 24/7 non stop !
That would be quite some achievement for a car that doesn't exist yet, from a manufacturing plant(s) that doesnt exist yet, and will likely have many new competitors by the time it gets into production.
The drive battery pack is probably only 10-15% of the manufacturing requirement of a new EV , so Tesla has yet to design, and build 80+% of the Mod3 manufacturing facilities,..IE that is going to be at least 2 to 4 times bigger than the "Gigafactory" in terms of scale, resources, and investment ?.
They have a lot of the components designed and in use in the model S Elon has said a few times the people who buy the more expensive model S are helping pay for the development of the Model 3 and other cheaper cars.
Its easy to find a negative way to shrug anything off in life Hillhater as you tend to do. But this is a car everyone wants and when compared to a car that's ICE powered for a similar price it will blow it out of the water. ICE cars are already making these sales happen so its a no brainer that this is going to happen when its going to be a better car that people would choose over the ICE cars in the same class.
Its easy to find a negative way to shrug anything off in life Hillhater as you tend to do. But this is a car everyone wants and when compared to a car that's ICE powered for a similar price it will blow it out of the water. ICE cars are already making these sales happen so its a no brainer that this is going to happen when its going to be a better car that people would choose over the ICE cars in the same class.
methods
1 GW
That is kind of a (hill) hater post. :?
With numbers like $5,000,000,000.00
We will find success.
For most people the potential of that much money is incomprehensible.... so it is pointless to speculate on it here.
-methods
With numbers like $5,000,000,000.00
We will find success.
For most people the potential of that much money is incomprehensible.... so it is pointless to speculate on it here.
-methods
Hillhater said:
Dauntless
100 TW
methods said:
Now now, you're losing sight of the fun of it all.
methods said:
I think the intro for the bottom one sums it up better. If you just want to wait until it's easy, you'll wait forever. The only way to make this work is to get out ahead of it.
[youtube]LgzXwpePTTU[/youtube]
[youtube]yJlgio-UOng[/youtube]
MitchJi
10 MW
Hi,
And your point is?
Hillhater
100 TW
Currently Tesla make approx 60 ModS per day....2+ per HOUR. ,MitchJi said:
And have no production facility that can scale up for the 30x capacity needed for 500 k PA
It's a little like the local Pizza restaurant deciding they are going to do all the catering for the Super Bowl !
I assume you are aware that Tesla are struggling to find a way to make the mere 50,000 ModX that they have planned ?
..that would be something like the VW Golf (600k + PA)... A car that is produced in multiple high efficient plants around the world ! And has been building a solid customer base for 40+ years !
Guys, I am not beating on Tesla, just trying to balance out some of this "Tesla Spin" with a dose of reality as to what it actually takes to achieve sales on that scale for any product,.. Let alone one that does not yet exist and certainly won't be the only Horse in the race.
Hillhater
100 TW
Methods,methods said:
I can understand the appeal of the A123 cells, but they are not exactly re known for their Energy density ?
Power density is one of their better characteristics (high C rates), but Panasonic etc have them beat for energy.
..OR, do they have something new you are not telling us about ? :wink:
arkmundi
10 MW
Ahh, doses of reality ... The question is whether we are on a the precipice of the Olduvai gorge or the Singularity? I'm sure that Elon Musk is a believer in human ingenuity and that we're on the Singularity horizon. Can I get me some of that reality medicine please?Hillhater said:
I'm certain that Tesla can muster the wherewithal to transform automotive manufacturing in America. But it begs who is going to buy all those model III, IV etc and with what? Rocks?Richard Duncan said:
Hillhater
100 TW
I always wanted one of those crystal ball things !
arkmundi
10 MW
I'll trade you one crystal ball for 5 doses of reality! 
Dauntless
100 TW
Well, let's see. The 1st Industrial Revolution was 1750-1820, so there was more than halfway to 100 years, but rather than reverting afterward mankind continued forward. For the 2nd Industrial Revolution (1840-1870) John Ericson alone came up with the propeller, the powered elevator, the moveable turret.
After that, they stopped calling it a revolution when things advanced. I guess Jethro Tull didn't have a problem with being the only one building new things prior to the first Industrial Revolution. There's no sign that Steve Jobs minded coming more than 100 years after the second.
Dang, Ned Ludd, or Edward Ludlam if you prefer was fighting industrial civilization 150 years before that silly graph says there WAS industrial civilization. The Luddites themselves died out more than 100 years earlier. If that chart thinks it can account for energy production at a time when farmers were routinely making alcohol fuel and burning corn husks and other wastes for power that NOBODY tabulated, let alone all the wood cut to run steam engines. . . .
After that, they stopped calling it a revolution when things advanced. I guess Jethro Tull didn't have a problem with being the only one building new things prior to the first Industrial Revolution. There's no sign that Steve Jobs minded coming more than 100 years after the second.
Dang, Ned Ludd, or Edward Ludlam if you prefer was fighting industrial civilization 150 years before that silly graph says there WAS industrial civilization. The Luddites themselves died out more than 100 years earlier. If that chart thinks it can account for energy production at a time when farmers were routinely making alcohol fuel and burning corn husks and other wastes for power that NOBODY tabulated, let alone all the wood cut to run steam engines. . . .
speedmd
10 MW
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/12/nevada-tesla-gigafactory_n_5808818.html
It's official! The Gov. signed the tax bill. Wonder what it feels like giving away 1.3 billion $$ of the good peoples money.
It's official! The Gov. signed the tax bill. Wonder what it feels like giving away 1.3 billion $$ of the good peoples money.
speedmd
10 MW
I would rather states not fight each other so hard for a few jobs. For companies that move jobs overseas, It is a simple solution that no politician wants to address.
Most of these type of tax giveaways end up just being that. We had several up here in the north east that were completely ridiculous. Pay back on even the most optimistic scenarios, was 50 plus years. Musk does not need the money, and governments have a role, but finance is not the one I would suggest. I think he is doing the right thing building it here, and I wish him all the best. Would rather see most of the direct money put into technical schools that specialize in the EV /energy storage field as a feeder for the industry and spread out to the various science centers around the country.
Most of these type of tax giveaways end up just being that. We had several up here in the north east that were completely ridiculous. Pay back on even the most optimistic scenarios, was 50 plus years. Musk does not need the money, and governments have a role, but finance is not the one I would suggest. I think he is doing the right thing building it here, and I wish him all the best. Would rather see most of the direct money put into technical schools that specialize in the EV /energy storage field as a feeder for the industry and spread out to the various science centers around the country.
dnmun
1 PW
there are no schools that specialize in EVs or batteries. i tried to get methods to go back to grad school at stanford with those guys working on the polysilicon anode or another group like that in the area, because that would give him the leg up to interview at one of these new manufacturing facilities when they come on campus to interview students.
this is how you get onto the technical staff at places like this. or have very good insider contacts or be well published in something they need expertise in.
the plant address is Electric avenue, McCarron, Nevada.
this is how you get onto the technical staff at places like this. or have very good insider contacts or be well published in something they need expertise in.
the plant address is Electric avenue, McCarron, Nevada.
methods
1 GW
Hillhater said:
I know of no such cell. The only A123's I have tested were light as a feather, overpriced, and hard to get.
arkmundi said:
Beach glass and rare shells
It matters not what we trade in... only that we play fare.
I have a real-estate proof that perfectly illustrates the problem with the rules of the current game.
-methods
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